NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: January 19, 2016

It is cold here in the Northeast right now. 10 degrees outside my window to be exact with a mean howling wind that reminds me of old "Dracula" movies. Even my cat slept under the covers last night if that is any kind of indication to the current climate.

Well without jinxing myself I believe I have passed through my first losing streak of the season. I have to say, my friends, it was a good run. The sad part is the losing streak that seems to have turned around ate away over 75 percent of my bankroll. This is where that whole bankroll management paid off that we DFS experts preach about on a regular basis. You have no idea, even for a seasoned player such as myself, how hard it is to stick to your daily spending limit. There is always a little DFS devil on your shoulder telling you that if you lost four nights you should load up on the fifth because you are due. This is true to an extent, but at the same time it can leave you crippled and in need of making a deposit prior to your comeback hit. That sucks and is something I try to avoid so I generally listen to the DFS angel on the other shoulder telling me to stick to my 10-percent rule. Thus far this season, I have played every day even while I was in the hospital without the need to make a deposit. Phew.

During losing streaks I can get particularly volatile around my house. Especially at 10:30 p.m. when I am starting to see that my night is over or when I check my lineup and see a guy only has 1.2 points at the end of the first half. As always around this time my wife Jennifer forces me to stop watching sports for the night and put my phone down. She is right after all, there is little I can do about it. Yet I still bitch and moan about my decisions and how much time I wasted to just lose.

When you spend two-to-three hours a day researching for your evening of DFS action you have to cash or you spend hours for nothing. Not only for nothing but you gave away money on top of it. This is the truth of DFS and what separates the casual player from the pro. Although I do not play at the Tommy G, Jeff Mans, and Maxdulary level bankroll-wise, I do depend on being able to withdraw a few hundred a month to at least cover my car payment if nothing else. So as you can see DFS is a job as well as a passion for me. So understand this, when I give a bad pick, or, when you see a player that I have stated is in my cash game lineup go flat on his back then trust me, I already know more than anyone the pain. Believe me, reminders are not necessary.

So with a new day and hopefully another winning night ahead of me, I bring you today’s position coach article.

Point Guard

We have a small four-game slate and one guy that should be 100 percent owned tonight is Russell Westbrook. He is the guy tonight you build your cash game lineup around because not only does he have a great matchup with Denver allowing a 23.1 ppg and the 26^th most fantasy ppg to point guards on the season, he also has the highest ceiling at the position. The last time he faced the Nuggets on Dec. 27, he scored 30 points with 12 assists and nine rebounds while playing 38 minutes and he is the only point guard on the slate averaging over 40 fantasy ppg, a score he has reached safely in seven of his last 10 games. If you he puts up 60 fantasy points tonight and you fade him you are dead in the water.

Every night Jrue Holiday plays over 25 minutes. With little to choose from tonight he floats to the top of my model for the low price of $6,300 on FanDuel. In the last eight games Holiday has scored over 30 fantasy points six times going over 50 once versus the Clippers on Jan. 10. The Timberwolves are allowing 23 ppg and the 20^th most fantasy ppg to point guards on the season, a matchup I find more than favorable for a guy who has three double-doubles in the last five games.

Ricky Rubio hates me. The last two times I have taken him he scored 13.4 and 15.8 points on FanDuel. Both times during my seven-day losing streak. He has only scored less than 25 fantasy points twice in the last 10 games. Both times I took him of course. Rubio is averaging over 30 fantasy ppg and tonight faces a Pelicans team allowing a whopping 23.3 ppg to point guards over the last five games and on the season. With the two recent stinkers his price is down to $6,900 and he should be among the lower owned point guards on a small slate.

If you are looking for salary relief tonight both Emmanuel Mudiay and Tyler Johnson offer you this. Mudiay is playing major minutes since returning and has scored more than 20 fantasy ppg in three of the last four facing a Thunder team allowing 23 ppg, the 22^nd most fantasy ppg and 25.2 ppg over the last five to point guards while Johnson has a tougher matchup facing a Bucks team allowing just under 20 ppg and the 11^th fewest fantasy ppg on the season to point guards. I give Mudiay the slight bump but I honestly believe Johnson has a higher ceiling and should see plenty of minutes with Beno Udrih ruled out for tonight.

George Hill is up in the air as he has some kind of undisclosed personal problem going on. If he plays he is a fine play. I just have no clue if he will or not and cannot lock anything down either way at the time of writing this article.

Shooting Guard

Giannis Antetokounmpo is another guy who is hard to ignore in cash games on such a small slate. In the last four games he has scored 52.5, 41.2, 52.2, and 34.7 fantasy points on FanDuel with four straight double-doubles for the low price of $7,800. The Heat are allowing 21.3 ppg over the last five and the 18^th most fantasy ppg so small forwards, where FanDuel has him. The Greek Freak will turn up the heat to reign supreme tonight.

In five of his last eight games Monta Ellis has scored more than 30 fantasy points five times. This one almost seems like a no brainer tonight in cash games with the Suns in disarray as they are allowing the third most fantasy ppg on the season and 23.3 ppg to shooting guards over the last five. If he starts tonight at PG in the absence of George Hill he becomes a must play.

Also if George Hill sits tonight then Joseph Young becomes a fine play for a stars and scrubs GPP. In his last game versus Denver he scored over 25 fantasy points in 18 minutes of play. He clearly has the talent and could be the sneaky play of the night with Phoenix allowing 26 ppg to point guards over the last five games.

Staying for the most part on small slates with safer plays Will Barton has been picking things back up again lately. Barton has scored over 30 fantasy points in two of his last three games and faces a Thunder team in a game with a high 212 expected point total who are allowing 22.1 ppg to shooting guards over the last five. His price being slightly higher is all that keeps him from tying with Ellis in my model. Gary Harris is also an option for much cheaper but comes with a ton of risk although he has been playing better lately.

Small Forward

Paul George is the guy I plugged into my first small forward slot on FanDuel right away. His fantasy production is down as he has only scored over 40 fantasy points in five of his last 10 games only going under 30 once. If you call that poor. The Suns are allowing the third most fantasy ppg on the season to small forwards and I see no reason George will not score at least 40 fantasy points tonight against this mess of a team.

If you want to save a few bucks the quiet guy to own tonight is P.J. Tucker. His price is at the bottom of the basement across the industry which baffles me considering he has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in eight of his last 10 games going over the 30 mark once. The matchup looks terrible with the Pacers allowing the third fewest fantasy ppg to small forwards but they are allowing 20.9 ppg over the last five. He is the guy I currently have paired with George in my cash game lineup. If it helps, he also scored over 25 fantasy points the last time he faced the Pacers.

We really have little in the way of value at the small forward position, but the other guy I do like tonight is Andrew Wiggins. He is playing at SG but FanDuel has him at SF which is advantageous to us on a small slate. The Pelicans are allowing the 25^th most fantasy ppg to shooting guards on the season and Wiggins is averaging nearly 30 fantasy ppg. Here is the one thing to be cautious about: Wiggins is scoring dependent. He doesn’t  get you much in the form or rebounds or assists and when calculating things like the most fantasy ppg it includes rebounds and assists among other things. If he is cold he will be a bust so for the price I like him better in GPP.

Power Forward

We have a few more options at the power forward position tonight which gives us a little room to move elsewhere. To be honest, I am fading Anthony Davis as he was having some back issues last night if memory serves and, well, he is kind of a wuss so he could sit tonight or play a limited amount of minutes. Keep in mind I am no doctor but I did stay at a Holiday Inn last night.

Bad joke aside, the guy I am going with over Davis tonight is Chris Bosh. Here are some things Bosh has going for him tonight:

1) Dwyane Wade is all banged up and could come out of the game at the slightest hint of discomfort. 2) Hassan Whiteside has a tendency to get into foul trouble. 3) The backup point guard’s backup is playing tonight in the form of Tyler Johnson.

These three things could all spell more shot attempts. Call me silly but these are all the factors I thought of right away besides the simple fact that the Bucks are allowing 23 ppg and the 24^th most fantasy ppg on the season to power forwards. Bosh gives you chance at 45 fantasy points tonight for the 35 fantasy point price.

OK, I said this the other day and I am going to say again…Jabari Parker. I got impatient and dropped him fairly early in a few seasonal leagues and I am really regretting it now. Parker is averaging over 25 fantasy ppg over the last five and is becoming consistent even posting a double-double versus the Hawks on Jan. 15. I believe that consistency is the factor to overcome in any sport to move to the next level. This means Parker is going to get better. How much? That is to be seen. He does get the Heat tonight who are allowing the third fewest fantasy ppg to power forwards which I find misleading considering they are allowing 23 ppg over the last five and 20.2 ppg on the season.

Markieff Morris is being showcased for a trade right now so he is getting plenty of playing time. He has scored over 25 fantasy ppg in three straight including going over 30 Sunday night versus the Timberwolves. The Pacers are allowing 21.5 ppg over the last five to power forwards and with little in the way of big scorers on the Suns he should see plenty of work for peanuts across the industry.

If Ian Mahinmi sits again tonight then Myles Turner becomes a viable GPP play tonight. He surprised everyone, scoring over 40 fantasy points in 29 minutes versus the Nuggets on Sunday night. If he gets the minutes tonight he gets a Phoenix team allowing 20.7 ppg to power forwards over the last five games and could boost you over the top for the near minimum across the industry. After the other night his minutes might increase regardless.

Center

I am only doing one of two things right now at center. I am either spending up for Karl-Anthony Towns or spending down for Nikola Jokic.

Towns is facing a Pelicans team allowing the second most fantasy ppg on the season and 21.1 ppg to centers over the last five. He has two double-doubles in the last four games and has high 30 fantasy point upside just like his more expensive counterparts.

If I do not use Towns then I am all in on Jokic. The only thing that scares me is his minutes fluctuate a little. He will play 18 or so minutes for a game or two and then jump to 23 or 24. Regardless of minutes, he has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in four straight putting up over 30 versus the Pacers on Sunday night. The matchup also looks worse than it is with the Thunder allowing the third fewest fantasy ppg to centers on the season but they are surrendering 20.3 ppg to centers over the last five. This play also gets you a little more exposure to that high 212 expected point total. Towns is safer, but Jokic is very tempting.

Good luck tonight!