NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: January 14, 2016

Points may be hard to come by Thursday. Of the 12 teams going, seven rank in the bottom nine in opponent’s points allowed. As I wrote Tuesday, I don’t usually like to play more than two or three players from the same team in any given lineup, but that may be unavoidable for this slate. 

Point Guard

I am probably playing as many point guards as possible in most of my lineups. There are players I like at every price point, so you don’t necessarily have to fill your point guard spots first, but I feel best about this position Thursday, so plan accordingly.

I suspect Spurs-Cavs will be a point guard duel. Neither point guard is known for his defense, and it showed in their matchups last season. In their two showdowns last year, Tony Parker averaged 19.5 points, 3.0 rebounds and 4.5 assists while Kyrie Irving averaged 38.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 3.5 steals. Kyrie Irving obviously has the higher upside, but both should be nice values.

Steph Curry is always a risk to call it a night after three quarters, especially against a terrible team like the Lakers, but that risk would be mitigated if Draymond Green is out again. Curry had 38 points and nine assists in 40 minutes Wednesday, and has now played at least 38 minutes in three straight games.

Aaron Brooks may be the ultimate GPP play Thursday if Derrick Rose is out. The Bulls could need Brooks’ offense with Rose and Pau Gasol in street clothes, and Brooks appears to be firmly ahead of Kirk Hinrich and E’Twaun Moore in Fred Hoiberg’s rotation, at least for now. Brooks is quite risky, even at his modest price, but he is capable of scoring 20 points if he plays 30 minutes.

The Grizzlies have the second-worst Effective Field Goal Percentage against pick and roll ball handlers this season, and no ball handler has run the pick and roll more this season or scored more points out of the pick and roll than Reggie Jackson.

Finally, the Kings are first in the league in opponent’s points and second in opponent’s assists and steals, so it is no surprise they are third in the NBA in fantasy points allowed to opposing point guards. Trey Burke has double-digit points in six consecutive games, and he is a safer alternative to Aaron Brooks for cash games.

Shooting Guard

The shooting guard position is quite thin Thursday, and while you won’t necessarily have to break the bank, you should probably plan on paying up for somebody, starting with Lou Williams. Williams is averaging 23.6 points, 4.0 assists and 3.9 rebounds in January and should be a nice DFS play even if Kobe Bryant is able to play.

For fantasy purposes, Derrick Rose is the Kevin Durant to Jimmy Butler’s Russell Westbrook. Butler is very good for fantasy when Rose is active, and great for fantasy when Rose is out. Pau Gasol has already been ruled out, so Butler could have to carry the offense all by himself in a game that may be closer than most 76ers contests.

No team has allowed more fantasy points to opposing shooting guards than the Kings, and Rodney Hood has continued to play well with Alec Burks out. Hood is averaging 16.4 points, 4.1 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 0.9 steals over the last two weeks.

If you absolutely have to save money at shooting guard, Courtney Lee is probably your best bet. Lee has topped 37 minutes in three of his last four games, and should provide a nice value if he gets heavy minutes again.

Small Forward

Small forward is the best place to save money for Thursday. There are a few cheaper players with upside, and you are probably better off avoiding LeBron James and Kawhi Leonard going up against each other anyway.

Harrison Barnes has seen his minutes rise steadily since he returned to the court last week, and he finally topped 31 minutes Wednesday in Denver. Barnes could continue to see 30-plus minutes per game even if Draymond Green is back, but he would be even safer for DFS Thursday if Green gets another day off.

Robert Covington should slide back into the starting lineup with Jerami Grant out, and Covington is averaging 11.4 points, 5.9 rebounds, 1.9 assists and 2.1 steals in 27.5 minutes as a starter this season. Covington is probably the best small forward value of the day.

If you absolutely have to pay up at small forward, Gordon Hayward is probably your best bet. The Kings allow more points than any team in the NBA, and Hayward is averaging 20.7 points  per game in January.

Tony Snell is averaging 13 points and eight rebounds in two games against the 76ers this season, and he had 17 and seven against the Bucks Tuesday. His playing time is too inconsistent to trust him, but he could get more shots if Rose and Gasol are out, and like Aaron Brooks, Snell is an intriguing GPP play.

Power Forward

Much like small forward, I don’t know how you justify paying up for a power forward Thursday, especially if Draymond Green is out. The Jazz have been stingy to opposing bigs this season, and I don’t trust any of the power forwards in the Cleveland-San Antonio matchup. On top of that, there are plenty of intriguing mid-priced plays.

Larry Nance Jr. had 10 points and 11 rebounds with Brandon Bass out Sunday, and Bass is listed as doubtful for Thursday’s game. Nance Jr. probably doesn’t have Julius Randle’s upside, but Nance Jr. is playing more minutes and is cheaper on FanDuel and FantasyFeud. Both Nance Jr. and Randle would be even better plays if Draymond Green sits out again. Darrell Arthur had a season-high 11 rebounds to go with 18 points against the Warriors Wednesday with Green out.

The 76ers have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing power forwards, while the Bulls have allowed the most to opposing centers. I could see both frontcourts having big games, especially with Pau Gasol out and Jerami Grant doubtful.

The problem with the Bulls’ frontcourt is identifying which player(s) will pop with Gasol out. Taj Gibson and Bobby Portis will probably benefit more from the increased playing time, as Mirotic has already averaged more than 30 minutes per game in the last week, but Mirotic is probably best suited to replacing Gasol’s offensive production. If you can pay up for Mirotic that is probably best, but Gibson and Portis are fine alternatives if you need to save money.

Center

If shooting guard and small forward are thin, the center position is a supermodel. Good luck finding anybody worth playing who is cheaper than Joakim Noah. As for Noah, he will probably be in most of my DFS lineups now that Pau Gasol has been ruled out. Noah is expected to start, and while the aforementioned power forward should see increased minutes as well, Noah has an excellent chance to outperform his price, especially if Derrick Rose is out.

Even with Gasol out, the Bulls have struggled to defend opposing centers, which makes Jahlil Okafor intriguing. Okafor is averaging just 5.2 rebounds per game in January, which puts him in Eddy Curry territory, but there could be more rebounds available with Jerami Grant out, and Okafor is averaging 21.5 points and 11.5 rebounds against the Bulls this season.

Only the Bulls have been worse against opposing centers than the Lakers this season, and Andrew Bogut played 32 minutes with Draymond Green out Wednesday. Bogut could easily go back to play 20 minutes Thursday even if Green doesn’t return, but he is worth a shot, especially on FanDuel.

On the one hand, the Grizzlies are much better at defending the roll man than the ball handler on the pick and roll. On the other hand, Reggie Jackson cannot possibly take every shot, no matter how hard he tries, and Drummond will be the guy crashing the boards when Jackson misses. Drummond is clearly the best center going now that Pau Gasol is out, and I would have no problem paying for him if you don’t trust the cheaper center options.