NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: January 12, 2016

One question I get pretty regularly is, “how many players from one team can I have in the same DFS lineup?” Like most strategy questions, I don’t like to follow any hard and fast rules, but in a slate with a good number of games like Tuesday’s, I will usually only play two guys from the same team, and I would need a really good reason to play more than three. Tuesday’s slate feels a bit unusual, as I actually made a DraftKings cash lineup with three Pacers and three Pelicans I actually like quite a bit.

The other trend I noticed Tuesday is a lack of quality options in what I would consider the second-tier. Most of the guys I really like are mid-priced guys, and if I was looking for more expensive plays, I often had to go all the way to the top to find somebody I wanted to spend my money on. I’m not exactly going stars-and-scrubs Tuesday, but I will probably have somebody like Paul George, Russell Westbrook, James Harden or Kevin Durant in all of my lineups.

Point Guard

The Houston Rockets have allowed the most assists and steals to opponents this season, and the fifth-most points. Mario Chalmers is a nice value on FanDuel if Mike Conley is out, though the best-case scenario for fantasy would be for Conley to return and play his usual 32 minutes. Conley could return but play fewer minutes, but that is probably a risk worth taking considering the matchup and his price.

Jrue Holiday had 29 points and 11 rebounds with Anthony Davis out Sunday, and he could have another big day against the Lakers tonight even if Davis returns. Only the Suns have allowed more fantasy points to opposing point guards than the Lakers this season.

Speaking of the Suns, they face the Pacers Tuesday, and George Hill is just one of the Pacers I love for DFS. Hill is averaging 13.9 points, 4.6 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 1.6 steals over the last two weeks, and I will gladly take those numbers at his price.

With the possible exception of Mike Conley, the point guards above are more cash-game plays than tournament plays. In tournaments, I’m going to spend a bit more for Kyrie Irving. Irving has topped 22 points in three of his last six games, and scored 13 or fewer in his other three. The Mavericks are right behind the Lakers in fantasy points allowed to point guards, and Irving is due to go off after a couple of clunkers.

Shooting Guard

The shooting guard position is much like the point guard position Tuesday. I really like the mid-priced options, though the best play of them all may depend on an injury. At the end of the day, however, if I can save enough money elsewhere, I would love to just pay for the most expensive guy and be done with it.

The Suns are fourth in the NBA in opponent’s assists since Eric Bledsoe went down, and Monta Ellis is averaging 7.8 assists over his last six games. Ellis has mostly been known as a scorer in his career, and he could easily drop 25 points on the Suns, but he is quite valuable for DFS in his current role as distributor.

I don’t exactly trust Devin Booker, but he is averaging 32.1 minutes per game over the last two weeks, and his price is still quite low on FanDuel. Monta Ellis isn’t exactly a stopper on the defensive end, and Booker could easily top 15 points for the third consecutive game.

My last two shooting guard targets both depend on injuries, though I could talk myself into Tyreke Evans even if Anthony Davis plays. Davis has played just three minutes in the last two games, and Evans has at least 26 points, seven rebounds and five assists in each of those games.

Rashad Vaughn is not exactly a household name, but he had 10 points, two rebounds, two assists, a steal and a block in 29 minutes Sunday with Jerryd Bayless and O.J. Mayo out. If both are out again, Vaughn should see similar minutes and is worth his modest price.

And finally, if you can afford him, James Harden is usually a good decision. This isn’t a great matchup, especially if the Grizzlies put Tony Allen on Harden for most of the game, but Harden has averaged 31.0 points, 5.5 rebounds and 5.0 assists in two games against Memphis this season. What other shooting guard is going to produce those kinds of numbers?

Small Forward

This position is more difficult to fill than most, and I may just play Paul George in every one of my lineups. The Phoenix Suns are second in opponent’s points, third in opponent’s 3-pointers and fifth in opponent’s steals. Paul George does all three of those things, and he has an excellent chance to score the most fantasy points Tuesday.

One way to afford Paul George in your lineup is to go cheap with Stanley Johnson at the forward spot. This may be the worst possible matchup for Johnson, but he played 39 minutes Saturday with Marcus Morris out, and Morris will be a game-time decision Tuesday.

If you want to roll the dice with a small forward in a tournament, I like Giannis Antetokounmpo. He has struggled lately, but the Bulls allow the third-most fantasy points to opposing small forwards, and Giannis had 18 points and seven rebounds against them a week ago. Khris Middleton is more of a cash game play, and he even costs less than Giannis on FanDuel.

Power Forward

It seems like I am having an increasingly difficult time finding power forward plays for DFS. More often than not I find a bunch of backcourt players I like and then I struggle to find more than a couple power forwards I want to play. That was the case this week, and while I compiled a fine list in the end, they are more cash game plays than tournament plays. I’m probably filling this position last.

In general, Kristaps Porzingis makes me nervous for DFS because he has been so up-and-down this season, and I feel like his ownership percentage is higher just because of his name. I am looking past that because power forward is pretty weak Tuesday, and because only three teams have allowed more fantasy points to opposing power forwards than the Celtics.

The Lakers have actually been pretty tough on opposing power forwards this season, but Brandon Bass and Julius Randle are both banged up, and Ryan Anderson has averaged 18.5 points and 8.0 rebounds with Anthony Davis playing just three minutes over the last two games. Anderson is probably the best power forward play of the night if Davis is out again. If Davis does play, I would consider him a tournament play. Davis has been frustrating for fantasy even when he isn’t dealing with a nagging injury, but nobody at the position has his upside Tuesday, and nobody would be shocked if Davis dropped 25 and 10 against the lowly Lakers.

Tristan Thompson has three double-doubles in his last five games, and only four teams have allowed more rebounds to opponents than the Mavericks this season. I suspect a lot of people will play Kevin Love Tuesday, but I actually think Tristan Thompson is more likely to be worth his price.

Center

There are actually a surprising number of centers I like in Tuesday’s slate, but Greg Monroe stands out above the rest. He is averaging nearly as many fantasy points as Dwight Howard and has the best possible matchup against the Bulls, but he is a lot cheaper than Howard.

Of course, Monroe has never been known for his defensive prowess, which makes Pau Gasol an exceptionally safe play. Gasol has five double-doubles in his last seven games, and he will likely get another one Tuesday.

Speaking of double-doubles, the aforementioned Dwight Howard has five straight despite missing a game in between with a back injury. Howard is a bit riskier than Monroe and Gasol, but it would not be surprising if Howard had the most fantasy points among centers Tuesday.

Steven Adams may be the least exciting DFS player ever, but at least his mustache game is on point. More importantly, he is averaging 11.0 points, 7.0 rebounds and 1.3 blocks in 27.7 minutes over the last week. Adams is playing nearly 10 more minutes per game than Enes Kanter, but he still costs less than Kanter on DraftKings and FanDuel, which seems a bit silly.

Robin Lopez is essentially a slightly better version of Steven Adams, and he costs just $100 more on FanDuel. The Celtics are third in opponent’s rebounds this season, and Robin Lopez is averaging 6.9 rebounds over the last two weeks, to go with 12.0 points and 2.3 blocks.