NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: January 10, 2016

It feels weird writing this article on a Sunday. It is almost noon and I am just getting to the introduction. You see, I had a late night last night as I had to work at my bar. By the time I actually got to sleep it was around 4 am. Of course, being myself I was out of bed and on the go again by 7 am. I will not lie to you guys, I am beat and ready to relax.

Last night was not a great night for me by any means. I have one name to mention…Luis Scola. I have read comments by people stating what a horrible cash game play Scola was last night. This is easy to say in hindsight. Let’s go back in time for a minute. We had several high-priced options last night to choose from. In order to get the most exposure to these high priced options you had little choice but to insert some risk here and there. Scola had a decent ceiling in a great matchup for a great price. So with this being said, Scola was more than cash game viable last night. If he had scored 25 fantasy points the same people would be saying things like, “how could you not have played Scola in cash games?”

I will say this about Luis Scola, he has burned me more than once so he has joined Marcus Morris on my list of players that are dead to me. The only positive thing is I stayed out of the money all night with little hope so I had a break from my phone.

Tonight’s slate has more value than Wal-Mart on the day after Christmas. The problem is most of this value revolves around “what ifs.” So with a cat that is being a creep and has proceeded to barrel over my laptop, I will dust things off and give you today’s position coach article.

Point Guard

With plenty of value across the board tonight I am spending up at the point guard position to try and maximize the amount of fantasy points I can net from it. The first guy I am plugging in tonight is Damian Lillard. He has scored over 100 fantasy points in the last two games combined and tonight faces a Thunder team allowing 27.3 ppg to point guards over the last five and the 26^th most fantasy ppg on the season. This game has the highest expected point total of the evening at 214.5 with Portland being 7.5-point underdogs. I expect Lillard to get a ton of shots tonight and I am locking him in for over 50 fantasy points.

The guy I am pairing with Lillard as of right now is Kemba Walker. In his last game versus the Clippers he put up a real dud, giving you less than 20 fantasy points. This is where I hope to gain a little bit of an edge on the whole recency bias thing and cash in. Prior to his last stinker Walker had scored more than 30 fantasy ppg in seven straight going over 40 five times, even hitting 50 and 60 once. The Nuggets are allowing 23.1 ppg and the 28^th most fantasy ppg on the season to point guards making Walker my guy in cash games tonight.

Moving right along Kyrie Irving is another fine play tonight for less money than both the guys listed above. The Sixers are allowing the 22^nd most fantasy ppg to point guards on the season and 24.8 ppg over the last five. In the last three games Irving has scored more than 40 fantasy ppg twice. The only thing that scares me is Cleveland is 15-point favorites tonight which spells huge blowout risk. I would limit him to GPP exposure for this reason.

If Nicolas Batum (GTD – toe) sits tonight then a great cheap option at the point guard position is Jeremy Lin. FanDuel has him at PG even though he would be playing at SG tonight with a sweet matchup. The Nuggets are allowing the most fantasy ppg on the season to shooting guards and 22.1 ppg over the last five. Lin has that 30 fantasy point upside for cheap tonight but it is all dependent on the status of Batum. Also, even though I believe he will start, Lin is listed as a GTD with a sprained ankle so keep an eye on this if you choose to play him.

You want a really cheap boom or bust GPP play tonight at the point guard position? OK, take a look at Raul Neto. The Jazz tonight are playing the Lakers in a game where Utah is only 1.5-point favorites. Neto scored over 25 fantasy points versus Miami last night and tonight gets a shot at a Lakers defense allowing the most fantasy ppg to point guards on the season and 21.4 ppg over the last five. If Neto gets the minutes you could grab 25 fantasy point for the near minimum across the industry. Of course he could also get you nine points just as easy. Hence, boom or bust.

Shooting Guard

This position tonight is loaded with value. You could spend peanuts tonight at the shooting guard position and still walk away with over 60 fantasy points. Here is the problem, most of these great value plays all center around the “what ifs” I mentioned. So for the moment I recommend you make your cash game lineup with the safe plays and adjust later depending on what value actually comes through. As usual it will be last minute I am sure.

So the first guy who jumps off the page for me tonight for the price is Monta Ellis. Ellis has scored more than 30 fantasy ppg four times in the last 10 games never going under the 20 mark. The Rockets are allowing 20.7 ppg and the 22^nd most fantasy ppg on the season while surrendering 24.8 ppg over the last five to shooting guards. This game has a high 206 expected point total and close line with Houston being the one-point favorite. For the price I am all in on Ellis tonight.

He is fuzzy, he absolutely despises the movie "Ted," claiming it is racist to the Teddy Bear population, and when he gets hot can score over 50 fantasy points. His name is Fozzy the Beard.

James Harden if you want to spend up at the shooting guard position tonight is the guy to do it with. He has the highest ceiling and gets a decent matchup with the Pacers allowing the 23^rd most fantasy ppg to shooting guards on the season. He nearly scored 50 fantasy points in his last game versus a tough Utah defense and has back-to-back games scoring over 40 fantasy points. I am not using him in cash games right now, but if all the value comes through tonight the money will certainly be there to make an upgrade later if I so choose.

If Rodney Hood, who is dealing with an ankle injury, does not play tonight then Chris Johnson certainly becomes a must play for the near minimum across the industry. He scored over 29 fantasy points last night in 31 minutes versus a tough Miami team. Tonight he would be facing a Lakers team your local high school team could beat. The Lakers are allowing 22.8 ppg and the 25^th most fantasy ppg on the season to shooting guards and Johnson, if he starts, should have a great night. Plus, I well imagine if you have to rest a player the Lakers would be the team to do it against.

Both Emmanuel Mudiay and Jameer Nelson are both questionable for tonight and there is a real chance they both sit. If this happens I see no way you do not play Will Barton. The Hornets are allowing 23.9 ppg and the 21^st most fantasy ppg on the season to shooting guards while giving up 21.5 ppg over the last five. When Barton gets the minutes he has 40 fantasy upside for the 30 fantasy upside price. If either of these guys starts tonight then Barton stays at five for me and remains a better play for GPP. If they sit he gets a bump to cash game status.

While I am awaiting to see what value does come through I currently have J.R. Smith in my cash game lineup along with Ellis. Smith is averaging well over 30 fantasy ppg in his last three and his price is only $4,900 on FanDuel tonight facing a Sixers team allowing a whopping 24.8 ppg to shooting guards over the last five games. I find this deal hard to pass up.

Small Forward

The small forward position tonight does not offer the same savings the shooting guard position does. As a matter of fact, I find it similar to the point guard position tonight in the sense that I find avoiding the cheap plays to be in your best interest.

Paul George is my favorite play tonight at the small forward position and I am using him in my cash games. He has scored over 45 fantasy ppg in three of his last five games and the Rockets are allowing 24.1 ppg to small forwards over the last five, which is the most in the NBA. His price is down across the industry and as far as the bang for your buck factor goes he is a virtual explosion.

A player I find of great value tonight is one of my beloved Celtics, Jae Crowder. Crowder has been lights out lately, scoring over 30 fantasy ppg in three out of the last four games going over 40 once. The Grizzlies are allowing the 25^th most fantasy ppg to small forwards and 22.4 ppg over the last five. Crowder plays plenty of minutes and should easily get you 30 fantasy points in what should be a great game that I will be watching.

With both Courtney Lee and Mike Conley more than likely sidelined tonight Matt Barnes continues to get a huge boost. He put up nearly 30 fantasy points in his last game versus the Nuggets over 33 minutes and tonight faces a Celtics team allowing the 21^st most fantasy ppg to small forwards on the season. Barnes has that 30 fantasy upside for peanuts across the industry and is currently sitting in my cash game lineup along with George.

It should come as little surprise that pretty much everyone who faces the Lakers is in play. Why should Gordon Hayward be any different? Hayward plays a ton of minutes and is averaging over 30 fantasy ppg and has the ability to give you that 40 fantasy point upside in the right matchup. The Lakers are allowing the 24^th most fantasy ppg to small forwards and Hayward should have them running in circles tonight trying to stop him. I find his price fair, and depending on how you spend he could be the top play next to George.

Power Forward

It seems like it has been quite a long time since we have checked in on our little elven friends in the woods. The last I heard Snap, Crackle, and Pop had signed a temporary truce with the Keebler Elves declaring no elven bakers would create any more new cookies until the market stabilized. With the war over all the elves looked to their Elven master Kristaps Porzingis for guidance.

He left my model for a spell, as I could not stand to try and guess when to take him and when not to. Kristaps has pulled it together lately as he has accumulated over 90 fantasy points in his last three games and tonight he faces a Milwaukee team allowing 22.9 ppg and the 25^th most fantasy ppg to power forwards on the season. This game has a 201 expected point total with the Knicks being five-point favorites Porzingis should get plenty of minutes tonight. All hail Lord Porzingis!

If you do not like Porzingis then take a look at Kenneth Faried tonight. He missed his last game for the birth of his child but should be back tonight. He has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in eight of his last nine games, going over the 30 mark three times even hitting 40 once versus the Thunder the day after Christmas. With the Hornets allowing the fourth most fantasy ppg to power forwards and 22.9 ppg over the last five Faried is a viable option for both cash games and GPP play.

The Sixers are allowing an incredible 24.9 ppg to centers over the last five games. As luck would have it FanDuel has Tristan Thompson in the four even though he is playing in the five. Thompson has a bargain basement price and has been playing over 30 minutes most nights. In three of his last five games he has scored more than 20 fantasy ppg and in the right matchup could get you 30 which he has done in the past. The Sixers are allowing the most fantasy ppg on the season to centers and Thompson is a great play if you need to save money tonight.

Speaking of the Sixers they are also allowing the second most fantasy ppg and 23.4 ppg on the season to power forwards. Can you think of a guy who can take better advantage of this than Kevin Love? Love is averaging over 33 fantasy ppg and has the ability to get you over 40 fantasy points in a great matchup. If it was not for the blowout risk Love would certainly top the board at the four as the world could use a little more Love.

I like to take a little risk once and awhile. Right now in my cash game lineup and hear me out before you think I am crazy is Trey Lyles. He has played more than 30 minutes in three straight games scoring more than 20 fantasy ppg in his last two nearly hitting 30 last night versus the Heat. Tonight he gets to pick on the Lakers who are allowing 22.3 ppg to power forwards over the last five games and the 24^th most fantasy ppg to power forwards. I am counting on him hitting 20 for me tonight for the near minimum. I would not do what I am doing and play him in cash games but I could not blame you if you had some gusto like myself.

Center

The guy who scored higher in my model tonight than any other center is Rudy Gobert. He played 28 minutes last night and scored nine points and posted midline stats across the rest of the board to tally 30 fantasy points on FanDuel. His price is fair across the industry facing a Lakers team allowing 22.2 ppg and the third most fantasy ppg on the season to centers while surrendering 24.6 ppg over the last five games.

Because of my risky use of Trey Lyles for the near minimum I am now able to fit my favorite center of the evening into my lineup. Marc Gasol has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in six of his last 10 games going over the 40 point mark three times. The Celtics as sad as I am to say it are allowing an incredible 24.5 ppg to centers over the last five games. I expect Gasol to feast tonight and give me over 40 fantasy points for what I consider a great price.

My boom or bust GPP play at center tonight is none other than my man Enes Kanter. He had ripped off a stretch of four games in a row where he scored over 30 fantasy ppg and then he went dead. Well he is starting to pick it up again as he scored almost 30 fantasy points in his last game verse the Lakers. Tonight he faces a Portland team just as bad who are allowing the 27^th most fantasy ppg on the season to centers. Keep in mind he could net you nine points as well. GPP only.

Good luck tonight everyone.