NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: January 9, 2016

So last night I started off extremely grumpy when I noticed at the end of the first quarter Anthony Davis was hovering around three points. Then upon investigation I saw the notice that he was doubtful to return with a back contusion of some sorts. Right away I wanted punch myself in the face for not taking Draymond Green instead. He was the obvious play and Davis is always a bad step away from missing two games. Apparently most of the DFS world wanted in on the Davis action because in all my 50/50’s he was around 90 percent owned.

Then I noticed that Bojan Bogdanovic had one point at the end of the first. It was around this time my wife Jennifer basically took my phone away, turned off sports, and made me watch "Fargo." Which, by the way, I love the show. The thing that really pisses me off about using Bogdanovic is he scored really low in my model last night. I took him knowing this on a hunch. So I have to ask myself this question, why spend hours doing a model if you go against it? The only answer I can come up with is because I am human.

I awoke around 4 am and checked my phone to find that not only did I cash my 50/50’s across the board I also cashed in tournaments as well. It appears I was able to make a few bucks despite Davis and Bogdanovic absolutely killing my lineup. It also helped my GPP lineup put up over 330 on FanDuel as well. I am not bragging. I read the message boards and believe me some of you are winning far more than I am. I am just trying to say that DFS is a funny sport at times, you just never know.

Every expert will tell you that if you get a zero in a lineup you are dead for the night. This may be true but for once it worked my way as I scored 5.9 points on FanDuel combined out of two positions and still won. Thank you gods of the DFS world. I owe you one.

Tonight’s slate is rather complicated. We have little in the way of viable cheap point guards pretty much forcing you to spend up at the position which makes it rather difficult to get the other superstars you want at other positions. The bottom line is, no matter what you do you are going to force a guy in your lineup somewhere you are totally uncomfortable with. It is just one of those kind of slates.

Point Guard

Stephen Curry is the top play on the slate today without question. Tonight he faces the Kings in a game with huge 222 expected point total and the Warriors are only 6.5-point favorites. I have to be honest, this line seems low but the gods that be in Vegas surely know more than I do. Curry has not played a ton of minutes lately but if this game stays close I imagine he will tonight. The Sacramento Kings are allowing 22.7 ppg and the 24^th most fantasy ppg to point guards while surrendering 23.4 over the last five. With Curry having the highest ceiling I see little choice but to try and fit him into cash games tonight.

With so little to choose from I had to pack my bags and head on an adventure. It has been a few days since I have been able to get a hold of Gollum (aka Rajon Rondo). He has locked himself away in his cave depressed over his last failed efforts to achieve his precious triple-double. But tonight he will get another chance if I can find him. For Gollum is a fickle creature with a nasty temper. You never know quite what he will say when cornered.

Rajon Rondo, despite not getting a triple-double in a while, is averaging over 45 fantasy ppg in the last three. As with Curry he is playing in the same game with the same huge expected point total. The Warriors are allowing a whopping 27.2 ppg over the last five to point guards in the NBA and Rondo should take full advantage of it tonight. I honestly believe if you were to pair him and Curry in your cash games somehow tonight you could get over 100 fantasy points. The problem is who do you give up to do it? And how will it hurt farther down your position chart? Just a quick footnote here, the Warriors are tied with Indiana and Utah for allowing the third-fewest assists in the NBA on the season.

If you feel as though you want to try and force a cheaper point guard in your lineup tonight the one guy I am strongly considering is Goran Dragic. The matchup is not particularly enticing with Utah allowing the ninth fewest fantasy ppg to point guards this I will admit. On the positive side the Jazz are allowing 20.8 ppg over the last five and 21.2 ppg on the season to the PG position. Dragic has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in seven out of his last eight games going over the 30 mark three times. He gets a ton of minutes and is your safest option under $8,000 tonight. I will not call a 30 fantasy point night tonight for him but someone has to score and I believe he will get you 25 fantasy points tonight which is more than you a liable to get out of the other cheaper options.

Shooting Guard

Klay Thompson much like last night was instantly inserted in my lineup. He is hotter than a summer’s day in July right now having scored more than 40 fantasy points in five straight putting up over 50 last night versus Portland. The Kings are allowing 23 ppg and the second most fantasy ppg to shooting guards and I cannot imagine any other guy at this position I trust more to give me 40 fantasy points tonight than him.

If you do not want to use Thompson, then much like last night’s position coach article, DeMar DeRozan is your next-best option. The Sixers are allowing the most points in the NBA over the last five games to shooting guards at 25.6 ppg and 22.1 ppg on the season. Much like Thompson he has a high 50 fantasy point ceiling in the right matchup and this certainly qualifies. Thompson only gets the edge tonight in my book because I love a late bullet. But either of these guys are fine.

The guy I have paired right now with Thompson is Evan Fournier. I have to try and find a place to save somewhere and for Fournier’s low price across the industry I have at least a chance at getting 30 fantasy points. The Magic-Wizards game is slated to be a fairly high-scoring affair with an expected point total just below 200. The Wizards are also allowing 22.2 ppg and the third most fantasy ppg on the season to shooting guards while surrendering 23.4 ppg over the last five. Fournier has hit the 30 mark twice versus the Pelicans on December 28 and the Nets on December 30 while scoring over 20 fantasy ppg in seven out of his last 10. Of the cheaper options he just feels the safest.

Small Forward

The small forward positon tonight is downright ugly. All tough matchups with little in the way of firepower to choose from. My goal tonight is to try and get 40 fantasy points out of this position while saving enough money to get another big guy later.

The first guy that jumped off the page for the price was Tobias Harris. He has scored more than 20 fantasy ppg in seven of his last 10 games going over the 30 mark four times. The Wizards are giving up the most points in the NBA at 23.4 and the most fantasy ppg as well to small forwards on the season. They also are surrendering 23.7 ppg over the last five. I am hoping for 25 fantasy points out of him tonight but he certainly is in a positon to give you over 30.

The guy I am pairing with Harris tonight is playing at the PF position even though FanDuel has him in the SF slot. Jared Dudley comes with risk which is why his price is only $4,000 on FanDuel. But he also comes with reward as well. In the last 10 games he has scored more than 20 fantasy ppg five times going over the 30 mark twice. The Magic are allowing 21.6 ppg over the last five to power forwards and I see no reason why Dudley cannot give you 20 fantasy point tonight. I am counting on him more for 15, though.

Sticking with the Washington-Orlando game at the SF position provides the best matchup and value on the slate. With this being said, if you do not use Harris the only other guy I am comfortable with tonight is Otto Porter. With Beal out, Porter continues to get plenty of shot attempts. Porter also has scored more than 30 fantasy ppg in four of his last six games. Of the three I prefer him the least but I certainly could not argue with you if he is your choice over Harris.

Power Forward

This position has a few cheaper viable options with potential but like earlier stated, I find this slate rather tough and it leaves you little choice but to squeeze some scrubs in somewhere.

Draymond Green has four triple-doubles in his last five games. I am a firm believer when a guy is hot you ride that train until it stops, again. The Kings are allowing 21.9 ppg over the last five and the third most fantasy ppg on the season to power forwards. On a night like tonight, Green could easily give you 50 fantasy points which means if you pass on him you will fall out of cash games rather quickly.

If you fade Green in the hopes the game is a huge blowout then I would insert Nerlens Noel. The Raptors-Sixers game has a high 203 expected point total and with the Magic allowing 21.2 ppg over the last five to power forwards, Noel is a great way to gain some exposure to it. Noel has scored more than 25 fantasy ppg in nine of his last 10 games going over 30 four times and 40 once. You would be amazed how easy this slate becomes if you fade Green. If you believe Noel can give you 40 tonight then by all means use him over Green and save. I am just not as sure. I say he gives you more like 33.

Somewhere we have to find a few cheap guys to use. I see little choice. The guy who scored second highest in my model at the power forward position tonight is Luis Scola. The problem is one night he will give you 25 fantasy points the next he will give you eight. You really have to try and take him on the right night. The Sixers are allowing the most ppg to power forwards on the season at 23.5 and the second most fantasy ppg as well. The thing that scares me is they are only allowing 19.7 ppg over the last five and Scola has failed to hit the 20 fantasy mark in three straight. Of the scrubs he is the best.

With Omri Casspi a game-time decision with a sore back Quincy Acy has been drawing the start. You want to talk about a boom or bust play? In the last two games Acy has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in limited minutes. The Warriors are allowing the 17^th most fantasy ppg to power forwards which is not great but for $3,800 on FanDuel tonight and the near minimum everywhere else if you can get 20 fantasy points tonight out of him in this slated high-scoring affair that savings could go a long way elsewhere.

Center

Andre Drummond scores the highest in model tonight at the center position. He has an incredible matchup with the Nets allowing 22.4 ppg and the 26^th most fantasy ppg on the season to centers while giving up 24.5 ppg over the last five. Drummond is averaging over 40 fantasy ppg and has eight double-doubles in his last ten games. I feel like he is due for a huge night like the last time he played the Nets where he scored 20 points with 18 rebounds, three steals and a block. His price is down to under $9,000 on FanDuel which I find the best value at the position tonight if you can afford him.

Jonas Valanciunas has played 30 minutes in back-to-back games. The Sixers are allowing the most fantasy ppg on the season and an incredible 25.4 ppg over the last five to centers. Valanciunas has 40-point upside and his price is only $5,900 on FanDuel and fair across the rest of the industry. On a small slate he provides great salary relief with huge potential upside.

Derrick Favors did not participate in shootaround today, which more than likely means he will not be playing tonight, keeping the door open for Jeff Withey. The problem is Rudy Gobert is reportedly going to double his minutes tonight from 15 to 30.  The chances of this remains to be seen. But if you are willing to take the risk Withey could get you 30 fantasy points if he gets hot and a few extra minutes with some luck. The Heat are allowing 21.6 ppg over the last five and as always someone has to score. I would only use him in a GPP lineup. He will be low owned for sure.

Good luck tonight. How you spend is going to go along way and if you miss on just one or two guys you will be dead in the water. Welcome to the world of DFS.