NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: January 2, 2016

It is getting late in the day so I am going to skip my usual introduction today and get right down to business.

We have a nice nine-game slate tonight with plenty of the way in superstars. Although there are a few I am interested in, most I am fading. So deep from the dungeon that is my office I bring you today's position coach article.

Let’s cash some lineups.

Point Guard

Chris Paul,in the last 10 games, has scored more than 40 fantasy points seven times, going over 50 once while never going under 30. His price is down across the industry and tonight he faces a Sixers team that has improved slightly defensively but still have a long way to go. The Sixers are allowing 22.9 ppg to point guards on the season but the numbers have dropped to 20.1 ppg over the last five. Paul is still the top option on the slate tonight with Curry in question and is more than cash game viable.

Kemba Walker for the price has quite a bit of upside. In the last four games he has scored 40 fantasy points or more three times eclipsing the all mighty 60 mark once. He scores in all the categories on a nightly basis which usually spells fantasy gold by evenings end. It does add up quick. The Thunder are allowing 22 ppg and the 22^nd most fantasy ppg to point guards, a number I suspect could go up tonight.

If you place either Walker or Paul as your top-priced PG that couple of thousand you save sure goes a long way later on. My goal tonight is to target six players I believe can get me 30 fantasy points or more and three players I believe will go over 40. This is a theory I employ most evenings and, well, it works.

Michael Carter-Williams is probably the biggest bargain versus upside on the slate for point guards. In the last 10 games Williams has scored more than 30 fantasy points seven times. He also has scored more than 40 fantasy points in three of those seven. His price is really low on FanDuel at $6,700 facing a Timberwolves team allowing over 23 ppg to point guards and the 21^st most fantasy points as well. He is the guy I am pairing with either Paul or Walker tonight in my cash games looking to get 80 fantasy points out of the point guard position.

Jameer Nelson has a great matchup tonight and is also a nice value / late bullet if you are looking for both. The Nuggets-Warriors game has the highest expected point total of the evening so you have to get some exposure to it somewhere. Nelson is a typical under $5,000 player as inconsistency is a huge part of his game log. He is another one of those matchup-dependent plays that does well against weaker defenses. He scored over 60 fantasy points combined versus Portland and Oklahoma City but less than 40 combined fantasy points versus San Antonio and Cleveland. Tonight he faces a Warriors team allowing 21.7 ppg and the 23^rd most fantasy ppg to point guards. You get the picture?

If Stephen Curry sits the top-scoring guy in my model tonight is Shaun Livingston. He has scored more than 20 fantasy ppg in three of the last four including scoring 29.3 fantasy points on FanDuel versus the Rockets on New Years Eve. The Nuggets are allowing a whopping 23.6 ppg and the second most fantasy ppg to point guards making Livingston almost a must play for the price of $3,900 on FanDuel. The word is Curry is going to play so you will have to monitor this one.

Shooting Guard

I am going to be blunt here. There is only four players I will be using tonight at the shooting guard position.

Klay Thompson was in my cash game lineup tonight before I even got done writing his name into my model to hash the numbers. The Nuggets are allowing 22.3 ppg and the most fantasy ppg on the season to shooting guards while allowing 21 ppg over the last five. Thompson has a high ceiling for a low price across the industry and in a matchup like this he is a must play.

Part III? Really. How many Chronicles of J.J. Redick movies are they going to make? Tonight Redick battles the evil Sixers who are allowing the most points to shooting guards over the last five days at 25.1 ppg and 22.2 ppg on the season. With Blake Griffin out, Redick gets a usage spike that has allowed him to score over 25 fantasy points in two straight. I am taking a stab tonight Redick gets 30 fantasy points with the intentions of getting 70 out of him and Thompson.

Wesley Matthews, although not making my cash game lineup, will find his way into at least my GPP. The problem with Matthews is you really need him to score points. Well luckily the New Orleans-Dallas game has a high 208 expected point total with Dallas only being 2.5-point favorites. Matthews has the ability to put up 20 ppg and he gets a boost facing a Pelicans team allowing 23.5 ppg and the third most fantasy points to shooting guards over the season. He is viable in cash and GPP. But I prefer him in GPP due to the huge chance he doesn’t make the 30-point mark I am looking for.

The only guy I will use tonight besides these three is Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Although every time I write the initials KCP I crave some secret herbs and spices, Pope remains a viable option tonight. The Pacers are a tough matchup but allow 20 ppg and the 23^rd most fantasy ppg to shooting guards. Someone has to score and why not KCP who has scored over 30 and 40 fantasy points twice each in the last 10. I will run him out in a GPP or two but not in cash due to his ability to also give you 15 fantasy points.

Small Forward

OK, this position is actually pretty loaded tonight but not a ton of reliable value.

The top play at the position in my model tonight is Kawhi Leonard. He is averaging over 38 fantasy ppg and tonight faces a Houston team allowing the third most fantasy ppg to small forwards and 21.7 ppg over the last five. San Antonio as with most days are huge favorites (SAS -11) so blowout risk is a factor. It seems every time I take Leonard he spends the fourth quarter on the bench. Tonight could be the same. The question is do you get 40 fantasy points first? I will use him GPP but not in cash games for this reason.

The guy on FanDuel I am running out in cash games is actually playing at shooting guard. On average shooting guards score more points than small forwards so this is always an advantage. Nicolas Batum over the last seven games has scored more than 30 fantasy five times going over 45 once. The Thunder are allowing the third-most points over the last five days to shooting guards at 23.6 ppg. Batum has been red hot and I expect him to get the minutes. I am just glad his first name is not Master.

Same advantage goes to Andrew Wiggins on FanDuel. Here we have another guy playing in the two but listed in the three. The Bucks are allowing an incredible 24.8 ppg to shooting guards over the last five games and over 20 ppg on the season. This game has a decent expected point total at 201.5 with Minnesota being only one-point favorites. Wiggins has scored more than 25 fantasy points in four straight going over 30 twice, something I imagine will turn to three times after tonight.

How about that Khris Middleton character? In the last six games he has scored over 40 fantasy points four times nearly hitting 50 against a tough Pacers defense. Tonight Middleton has the same ppg advantage by playing at SG against a Minnesota team allowing nearly 20 ppg and the 20^th most fantasy ppg on the season. He is the man I have paired with Batum tonight.

Both Paul Pierce and Andre Iguodala are both great value GPP plays tonight. Pierce is facing a Sixers team allowing the most fantasy ppg to small forwards on the season and has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in two of four while Iguodala gets a Nuggets team allowing 22 ppg over the last five to small forwards and should see plenty of minutes in this expected blowout.

Power Forward

I fully plan on choosing wisely on who to pay up for tonight. These bigger slates can be tricky and often I find people get so crazy trying to fit a bunch of superstars they overlook stars in great matchups. The one superstar I plan on figuring out a way to fit in my cash games by night's end is Draymond Green. He has a double-double and a triple-double in the last four games while scoring over 50 fantasy points twice. The Nuggets are allowing 21.9 ppg to power forwards on the season and 22.2 ppg over the last five. Green should feast tonight and I would like my wallet to dine with him.

Although I will not have exposure to him outside of GPP play, Anthony Davis is one of those superstars worth paying for. With the high expected point total on this game and the Mavericks allowing the 26^th most fantasy ppg to power forwards Davis sure is a viable option. The problem is, does he give you 30 fantasy points or 60 fantasy points? This question is why I have such a hard time using him in cash games. In his defense if he is going to have a good game this certainly would be the one.

LaMarcus Aldridge scores higher in my model than any other power forward tonight. The Rockets are allowing the most fantasy ppg, ppg, and ppg over the last five games to power forwards on the season. The only problem is Aldridge has that 35 fantasy point cap as he has only hit the 40 mark once in the last 10 games versus the Clippers. If he is going to do it again, tonight would be the night in this matchup. I will be using him in GPP only due to the blowout factor.

Serge Ibaka could get you to that magic 30 fantasy point mark for his $6,200 salary on FanDuel. The Hornets are allowing the 27^th most fantasy ppg on the season and 21.3 ppg to power forwards over the last five. Ibaka has scored more than 30 fantasy ppg three times in the last 10 and I am willing to bet the farm he does it again tonight.

I can see him peering through his telescope on the moon. He may think he is hiding but that Green Roman-like helmet is unmistakable. He has been quiet, awaiting to be picked again in the right matchup. For Marvin the Martian, or Marvin Williams, has been seeing green with envy through his home made of Swiss cheese.

Williams is a play I would use to try and snag a quick 20 fantasy points while upgrading significantly somewhere else. I am not a big fan of the value on this slate tonight but bobbing for apples is just that, a chance. Williams tonight faces a Thunder team allowing 21.7 ppg over the last five and providing they do not just shut him right down he should see plenty of shot opportunities. Like I said, only use this play to punt.

Cody Zeller is another viable option but with a little higher upside.

Center

In six of the last seven games Andre Drummond scored a double-double. I find this amazing. Although he has cooled off a bit he still has scored over 40 fantasy points twice and 50 fantasy points once in the last four games. The Pacers defensively are a middle-of-the-road defense allowing the 14^th fewest fantasy ppg on the season but over the last five games they are allowing a whopping 26.4 ppg to centers. I see no way to fit Drummond in my cash games but if I could I would tonight.

Karl-Anthony Towns fantasy numbers are like a roller coaster ride. They vary from 25-to-50 fantasy over his 10-game log. In the last two he has put up over 35 fantasy points against Utah and Detroit. Tonight he faces a Milwaukee team allowing a 23.2 ppg over the last five to centers. For the price I believe he has a huge chance of putting up 40 fantasy points tonight and I believe is the top cash game option.

OK, I am crazy. Just because I do it does not make it right.

I am playing as of right now Joffrey Lauvergne in my cash games. Before you stop reading my articles and call me a fool hear me out. He has scored 24.3, 24.9, and 25.7 fantasy points on FanDuel in the last three facing Oklahoma City (1^st), Cleveland (2^nd), and Portland. Although Portland is not the toughest OKC and Cleveland are the No. 1 and 2 defenses against the center. If he was able to get to 20 on them then why not 30 tonight facing a Warriors team allowing 20.7 ppg and the 21^st most fantasy ppg on the season and 24 ppg over the last five to centers. For his near minimum price in a game with the highest expected point total and a late bullet as well? I cannot pass, risk or not.