Welcome to the Eastern Conference Finals (ECF), arguably the best basketball of the NBA season! It will be difficult to top the Game 7s of the Semifinals, but today’s game will be an entertaining start to the ‘final four’. 

 

 

 

Two of the best offenses in the Association square off in Game 1 of the ECF; one is well rested and the other played two days ago. The Indiana Pacers travel to TD Garden to take on the Boston Celtics, and with that, we’ve gathered our top Pacers vs. Celtics prediction and picks.

NBA Picks & Predictions, 5/21: Pacers vs. Celtics Game 1

The year-long favorites to hoist the Larry O’Brien trophy, the Boston Celtics are major favorites over the sixth-seeded Indiana Pacers. The oddsmakers have Boston winning this series in five games or less, and there is plus money for the series to go over 5.5 games. Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets is focused exclusively on today’s matchup though. 

As it currently sits, the Celtics are 10-point favorites at home, but they are the best team in the playoffs. The moneyline for Boston is up to -500 and if you bleed green for the Celtics and want to lay a moneyline bet, wait for a live bet with better odds. There is one straight bet that is featured for the NBA picks Bet of the Night.

 

 

 

Pacers vs. Celtics Prediction: Over 221.5 Total Points (-110 on DraftKings Sportsbook)

Defense will be an afterthought in this series, and the sportsbooks know it. 221.5 is the highest line I can recall in the 2024 Playoffs, and it still is not enough. Although it is not the regular season, the Pacers and Celtics combined for 253 points or more in three of their four regular season matches… 253! That is well above the current set line of 221.5, and it would be wise to bet the over.

Second, there is only one notable defender in this series and that is Jrue Holiday. No other starting players from either team are elite defenders, and for the Celtics, Holiday has been asked to do more offensively than defensively. There are several great offensive scorers for both teams though. Al Horford has some impressive defensive playoff numbers, but he is well past his prime years and playing against a youthful team. 

The Pacers have scored 111 or more points in four of their last five games. The Celtics by far attempted the most three point field goals throughout the season. Their average of 42.5 threes per game is three more than the next closest team, the Dallas Mavericks. They look to score and score often behind the arc, with a mix of drives from Jayson Tatum and Jrue Holiday. 

The Celtics and Pacers were the two highest scoring teams of the regular season. These two teams combined for 243.9 points per game, and their regular season philosophies have carried over into the playoffs. 

Look for both teams to have several great scoring runs and for lead changes until the fourth quarter when one team will make the last great run and hold off their opponent. Bet a unit on over 221.5 points in the favorite of my NBA predictions today.

 

 

 

Pacers vs. Celtics SGP: Indiana +1.5 1Q, Sam Hauser O6.5 P+R+A, & Pascal Siakam 20+ Points (+600 on Bet365 Sportsbook)

This is a three-fold NBA parlay with fantastic odds. First and foremost, the Indiana Pacers must be ahead, tied, or down no more than 1 point at the end of the first quarter. Yes, the Celtics have won the first quarter in 16 of the last 17 games against the Pacers, and yes, the Celtics have won 21 of their last 22 games with a rest advantage. 

But the Pacers are coming off a historic 67.1% scoring night. That is the highest field goal percentage in 77 years of NBA Playoff games, they are in an offensive rhythm. The Celtics do not have the personnel to stop the Pacers from scoring either.

The Celtics could win this game, but they haven’t played a game since last Wednesday, and could have stiff legs and wrist. With all respect to the Cleveland Cavaliers and Miami Heat, they do not, and cannot, play at the pace of the Pacers. Their offensive tempo is difficult to manage and overcome for a seven-game series. The Pacers could catch the Celtics off guard by picking up right where they left off in the first quarter of Game 1.

Sam Hauser is not a name many people know outside of Boston, but he is a valuable and reliable bench player for the Celtics. As mentioned in the paragraph above, the Pacers could push the Boston Celtics in a way they haven’t been since March. The players could get winded earlier, or be exhausted late, and Hauser will be needed.

He played nine to 18 minutes in every game of the series against the Cavaliers, and covered this prop in his most recent game. He is averaging over 11 points against the Pacers this season, and the points alone could cover this prop. The PRA was added because he does have 19 rebounds in the playoffs, and a few assists as well. 

The rational path for Hauser to go over the line is two made three attempts and one rebound. He has made 15 threes in the 2024 playoffs, and as mentioned, the Celtics take more three-point attempts than anyone in the league. This bet has standalone value if you decide to double-down.

Pascal Siakam was mentioned yesterday as a player that will give Boston trouble. He is part of the offensive one-two punch along with Tyrese Haliburton, and Haliburton should be feeding Siakam throughout the game. The Celtics do not have someone that can defend his post to mid-range game, and he will have an advantage all night. He will take advantage of mismatches and be the efficient scoring machine that he is.

Siakam’s line is currently at 20.5, but the hook was removed for the purpose of this Same Game Parlay. He has scored 20 or more points in the last three games, and four of his last five. He should have a field day against whoever the Celtics attempt to guard him with. The Pacers will likely go to him early to establish the ability to kick out and make three-point field goals in the second half. 

Oftentimes a half a unit is recommended on a parlay, but this one feels like three easily achievable angles independently. Therefore, a full unit is recommended, as Fantasy Alarm looks to start off the Conference Finals with a bang!

 

 

 

Thank you for reading my NBA best bets for today’s game! Remember to check out Fantasy Alarm for more bankroll-building bets, top-notch DFS content, NFL best ball cheat sheets, and up-to-the-minute sports information. 

Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy

*All odds accurate at time of writing and NBA bets to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise