NBA Best Bets Today, 3/17: Picks, Predictions & Player Props - Monday
So close to another Meatloaf day in yesterday’s NBA predictions, but Austin Reaves earned his sixth assist late in the match and got off of the hook. Scottie Barnes had his lowest number of field goals in over a month, a true disappointment as he was only 3 points away from covering the line.
P.J. Washington did come through as he earned 12 rebounds, easily covering his over 6.5 rebound line. That kept the damage just over -1.0 units, and Fantasy Alarm NBA best bets today look to bounce back on the luckiest day of the year.
NBA Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 3/17
Happy Saint Patrick’s Day to all those that celebrate, participate, and/or observe. It feels almost criminal that the Boston Celtics are not playing, but there is a loaded slate of nine games across the Association.
A betting sampler is brought to the NBA picks festivities today; one straight bet, one parlay, and one player proposition. Two matches are nationally broadcasted on ESPN, and the first of our NBA best bets today comes from one of those games.
Nuggets vs. Warriors Prediction: Denver -3.0 (+215 on Bet365) *BET OF THE NIGHT
The Golden State Warriors host the Denver Nuggets in the second match on ESPN. The game begins at 10:00 PM ET, and it is a guaranteed thriller with future Hall of Fame members on both sides.
Golden State may not need any extra luck today, they have won seven consecutive matches, and nine of their last ten. Due to that they are currently in sixth place in the Western Conference. There is no time to let up as the Minnesota Timberwolves have won eight in a row, and are currently tied with Golden State.
The Denver Nuggets could use some luck after an unexpected and painful loss to the Washington Wizards on a game winning, deep three pointer from Jordan Poole. The Nuggets have lost five of their last ten matches, and are on the first of a brutal four game Western Conference road trip. Denver needs to put together a stretch of wins to maintain pace in a crowded playoff race.
Denver is currently tied with the Memphis Grizzlies and Houston Rockets for second place in the Western Conference. They are only 1.0 games ahead of the Los Angeles Lakers, and only 3.5 games ahead of the Warriors and Timberwolves. A loss by the Nuggets puts them only 2.5 games ahead of the Warriors, and possibly seventh place which would put them in the play-in.
The Nuggets come into this match as +4.5 underdogs and their roster has several questionable players. Michael Porter is the only starter without an injury designation, but that is not concerning. Nikola Jokic will play through the pain, and Christian Braun is listed as probable.
Denver is 18-6 following a loss this season, and Head Coach Michael Malone gets his team prepared to play better in those situations. Nikola Jokic will be a tough match for Draymond Green, Jonathan Kuminga, or Kevon Looney. He will once again be central to everything the Nuggets do offensively. Denver would create a 4.5 game advantage over Golden state with a win tonight, which would almost guarantee a spot in the playoffs.
Look for the Nuggets to play with intensity, that is why this spread has been teased up 7.5 points to -3.0 in favor of Denver. Today is a day to be bold, and this wager comes in at +215. Once it is successful it ensures a profit regardless of the next two NBA predictions. If you are new to Bet365 make sure to take advantage of the promotional offer at the end of this article.
Pistons vs. Pelicans, Raptors vs. Suns Prediction: DET -4.5, PHX -4.5 (+139 on Bet365)
In an attempt to always strive for balance, a teased down parlay on the Detroit Pistons and Phoenix Suns is advised. The Pistons play the New Orleans Pelicans at the Smoothie King Center, and the Suns host the Toronto Raptors at the Footprint Center. Detroit is -7.0 favorites on the road, and Phoenix is -8.5 point favorites at home.
The Pistons are not playing their best basketball, five losses in their last ten matches, and on a two game losing streak. They have a ‘get right’ game against the Pelicans who have lost seven of their last ten matches and are planning for next season.
The Pistons average 4.0 points per game more than the Pelicans (114.8 to 110.8), and allow almost six full points less than they do (113.2 to 119.0). They have the advantage over them both offensively and defensively and this could be an opportunity for them to spring back into the top five of the Eastern Conference.
The Phoenix Suns are underwhelming, and have not delivered on what was supposed to be an unstoppable big three. Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal are stars, but have not been able to win, and winners define sports. A famous quote that summarizes it well is, ‘Hellllllooooo! You play to win the game!’.
To somewhat of an extent Kevin Durant’s legacy could have a major question to it. However, a two time finals MVP, and season MVP will never truly be in question, due to how few have achieved that.
In the era of opinions and debates, Durant will never be able to compare to Stephen Curry or LeBron James. Not going to the play-in in a season when healthy, while James and Curry lead their team to the playoffs, would always be a kink in the armor for talking heads.
The Suns played yesterday, but so did the Raptors. And while the Raptors are playing for a high draft pick, the Suns don’t have a first round draft pick. There is not an advantage for them to tank and miss the play-in. Phoenix averages over three points more per game than Toronto (114.2 to 110.9), and the Raptors do not have someone to match up against Durant. Look for him to dominate this match after a terrible game against the Lakers.
Both teams should win this match, and according to the sportsbooks they should win it with ease. This teased down point spread allows for late rallies, or slow starts, and combined still have plus odds. Put a unit on the parlay and cheer for the Pistons and Suns to win by five or more points.
Best NBA Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 3/17
The last of our NBA best bets today comes from the northwest, and is a player proposition on a rookie making just his second appearance in this column.
Wizards vs. Trail Blazers Prediction: Alex Sarr O6.5 Rebounds (-105 on DraftKings)
The Washington Wizards are riding high after an upset win against the Denver Nuggets, their second win against them this season. They enjoyed a day’s rest before their match against the Portland Trail Blazers tonight, while the Trail Blazers were in a tough match against the Toronto Raptors yesterday.
Washington has won six of their last ten matches, and the trades and roster moves have them playing their best basketball of the season. Part of that is the improved play of starting center, Alex Sarr. Once Jonas Valanciunas was traded to the Sacramento Kings, Sarr’s involvement was guaranteed to go up.
Sarr averages 27.0 minutes per game, but has played over that in four of his last five matches. He averages 6.7 rebounds per game, and has gone over his average in three of his last five matches. Portland allows the tenth most rebounds per game to opposing teams (52.9), and allowed 57 in yesterday’s match against the Raptors.
Sarr will be matched up against another fellow rookie, Donovan Clingan. Although Clingan has size on Sarr (282 - 205 pounds) Sarr is 7’ tall and capable of holding his own. He will also have the advantage of playing against the Trail Blazers on their second of back-to-back matches. This should lead to more missed field goals for Portland, who averages 89.3 field goal attempts per game.
Put a unit on Sarr to record more than his average rebounds in this rookie versus rookie battle. If you are a new customer to DraftKings, make sure to take advantage of Fantasy Alarm’s promotional offer.
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Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy
*All NBA odds accurate at time of writing and NBA best bets today to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise
Player News
Ivica Zubac had a productive outing, finishing with 27 points (11-of-15 FGs, 5-of-8 FTs), five rebounds, one assist and two blocks in the Game 5 loss to the Nuggets on Tuesday.
Zubac continued to score the ball well, finishing with a series-high in points on efficient shooting. However, Zubac’s usual impact on the glass was absent as he secured just five rebounds in Game 5 after tallying at least nine in the previous four, with his one assist also tying his lowest output of the series. Down in the series 3-2, the Clippers head back to Los Angeles for Game 6 on Thursday, where they face a must-win situation to keep their season alive.
James Harden concluded Tuesday’s Game 5 loss to the Nuggets with 11 points (3-of-9 FGs, 5-of-8 FTs), eight rebounds, five assists and two steals in 35 minutes.
Harden had a quiet night on Tuesday, barely cracking double figures in scoring and failing to register double-digit shot attempts. The 2018 NBA MVP has faced a stifling Nuggets defense that, over the last few games, has forced the ball out of his hands, leading to inferior performances compared to earlier games in the series. Harden will look for a bounce-back performance on Thursday as he tries to lead the Clippers to a season-saving victory in Game 6.
Kawhi Leonard stuffed the stat sheet in Tuesday’s Game 5 loss to the Nuggets, posting 20 points (8-of-15 FGs, 3-of-7 FTs), nine rebounds, 11 assists, one steal, two blocks and one three-pointer.
Leonard did a little bit of everything for the Clippers in Game 5. The two-time NBA Finals MVP posted a series-high in assists and also hit the glass hard, resulting in a near-triple-double. Leonard has scored at least 20 points in all five games of this series. However, the Clippers may need even more from him going forward as they look to extend their season beyond Thursday’s Game 6 at the Intuit Dome.
Nikola Jokic earned a triple-double in the Nuggets’ Game 5 win on Tuesday over the Clippers, finishing with 13 points (4-of-13 FGs, 4-of-5 FTs), 10 rebounds, 12 assists, one steal, two blocks and one three-pointer.
The three-time NBA MVP had a relatively quiet game by his standards, but still came away with his third triple-double of the series. Jokic struggled with shooting efficiency, and his scoring output was the lowest of the series. Yet, his points were not as necessary in this game, given how well the rest of the Nuggets shot the ball. Nevertheless, Jokic will be in line for another big performance on Thursday when the Nuggets face the Clippers in Game 6.
Russell Westbrook came off the bench and produced 21 points (8-of-15 FGs, 2-of-2 FTs), one rebound, one assist and three three-pointers in the Nuggets’ Game 5 win over the Clippers on Tuesday.
Westbrook was electric in his first game back in the lineup following a foot injury that kept him out of Game 4. His second-quarter scoring ignited the crowd and helped set the table for what would be his highest-scoring game of the postseason. The 2017 NBA MVP has had himself a nice series thus far from a scoring standpoint and will have a chance to end his former team’s season on Thursday in Game 6.
Jamal Murray had a dominant Game 5 performance in the Nuggets’ win over the Clippers on Tuesday, tallying 43 points (17-of-26 FGs, 1-of-1 FTs), five rebounds, seven assists, three steals, one block and eight three-pointers.
Fresh off a series-low 13 points in Game 4, Murray exploded for a series-high on Tuesday. He totaled nearly as many three-pointers in this game as he had in the previous four combined, while still managing to dish out seven assists. Murray got hot early in this one and never cooled off, and now has provided his Nuggets the opportunity on Thursday in Game 6 to eliminate the Clippers for the second time in the last five seasons.