NBA Best Bets Today, 1/4: Picks, Predictions & Player Props - Saturday

The Denver Nuggets were so close to delivering on Meatloaf for Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets. Instead Victory Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs came out victorious, ruining the parlay and spoiling our platter.
The Washington Wizards are in fact the worst team in the NBA, but it was a close match until the mid fourth quarter when the New Orleans Pelicans flexed their might. Scottie Barnes delivered for us, as he has done numerous times before.Keeping yesterday’s damage to -1.2 units by covering his 17.5 points in the fourth quarter.
NBA Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 1/4
There are nine games today, and all of them are evening games. Two of them are nationally televised on NBA TV, and there are some predicted close matches. However the bet of the night is on a player making his return to the column.
Timberwolves vs Pistons Prediction: Jalen Duren 10+ Rebounds (+110 on Bet365) *Bet of the Night
Jalen Duren was a frequent mention earlier this year, but he went through a period of inconsistency. He has played 25 or more minutes in eight of his last nine games, and is averaging 9.4 rebounds this season.
He has been earning more than 9.4 recently, in three of his last four games he has recorded ten or more. The Timberwolves are a top ten defense when it comes to opponents rebounds, and they allow just 50.6 per game. The Pistons are playing at Little Caesars Arena, and Duren has recorded 11 or more rebounds in three of their last four home games.
The Minnesota Timberwolves are not playing at their expectations, and the Detroit Pistons are exceeding theirs. The Pistons are on a two game win streak and won seven of their last ten games, while the Timberwolves are on a two game losing streak and lost five of their last ten games.
Rudy Gobert is not looking himself either. In his last two games he managed just seven rebounds in each, and has only attempted eleven combined field goals. Duren has been playing with great effort and teasing his line up is recommended. The odds are great and this pick is counting on the same consistency from Duren, put a unit on it.
Nuggets vs Spurs Prediction: DEN -3.5 (-108 on Draftkings Sportsbook)
The Denver Nuggets and San Antonio Spurs played in a thriller last night, with the two best players going back and forth. San Antonio ended up with the win at Ball Arena with a great finish to the fourth quarter.
Tonight the game is at the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio. It’s a back-to-back for both teams against the same opponent, and the Denver Nuggets have done well in those games. In fact they are 6-0 on the second of back-to-back games this season. The ‘no rest games’ have been well for the Nuggets.
The officiating crew last night was letting both teams hack and be physical, but despite that Victor Wembanyama and backup Zach Collins each had 5 fouls. Mark Lindsay’s crew could call a tighter game or let them play tonight. Jamal Murray should have a better game, and has taken the blame for yesterday’s loss, saying he has to make some of the field goals he attempted.
The Nuggets have won by five or more points in games without rest, but the San Antonio Spurs are a great team. -3.5 should be a tight cover, but expect the Nuggets to come out with more effort tonight. Put a unit on Denver to cover the spread.
NBA Player Props & Other Picks Today, 1/4
There are certain players that are connected through their legacy, regardless of where they have played, or how many years they played together. This player prop happens to feature one player in such a scenario.
76ers vs Nets Prediction: Ben Simmons Over 6.5 Assists (-130 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Ben Simmons will always be associated with Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers. Despite the fact he is in his fourth year with the Brooklyn Nets, his and Embiid’s time together will be viewed as what could have been. With lofty expectations of two young, talented players they were great, but the process didn’t bring any championships… not even an appearance.
Now, Simmons is viewed as a bad player who does not have the confidence or skills needed to score in today’s NBA. This prediction is completely independent of his scoring, and fully reliant on the scoring of his teammates. The Nets are bad, but the 76ers are just as terrible as Philadelphia allows 111.3 points per game.
This is an Atlantic Division rivalry, and Simmons simply needs to rely on his teammates to be successful. He averages 6.9 assists per game and has recorded seven or more assists in seven of his last eight games. Philadelphia allows 26.3 assists per game and Simmons should earn seven or more tonight. Put a unit on the Simmons to deliver at home after taking a game off for rest.
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Player News
Mavericks have won the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery.
With just a 1.8 percent chance of success, Dallas leaped up in the lottery to nab the top pick in the 2025 draft. A little over three months after GM Nico Harrison traded away Luka Doncic, the Mavs will have a new young superstar to build around. Cooper Flagg is the expected top pick, and he will flawlessly fit Harrison’s mantra “defensive wins championships” that he has echoed tirelessly in every interview since trading Doncic. Assuming nothing changes, Flagg will join a loaded Dallas team that should be a contending team in the stacked Western Conference next season. San Antonio, Philadelphia and Charlotte round out the top four picks in a talented draft class.
Brandin Podziemski had 11 points (3-of-14 FGs), three rebounds, one assist and four steals in Game 4 against the Timberwolves on Monday.
Podziemski was 3-of-14 from the field and missed all four of his three-point attempts. His 22.5 field goal percentage in this series is the worst for any player (min. 35 attempts) since Pero Antic shot 16.7 percent in the Hawks vs. Pacers series in 2014, according to Josh Dubow of the Associated Press. Down 3-1 in the series now, the Warriors need Stephen Curry to return from his hamstring injury for Game 5, a miracle or both to get back in this series.
Jimmy Butler had 14 points (5-of-9 FGs), six rebounds, three assists and one block in Game 4 against the Timberwolves on Monday.
Despite the Warriors win in Game 1, Butler warned in postgame interviews that Stephen Curry is the team’s best player and it was going to be difficult to win games without him. After what’s transpired over the last three games, which the Warriors have all lost, he might’ve been underselling it. Butler wasn’t able to fill Curry’s shoes in Game 4. In fact, he was a team-worst -30 in 34 minutes in the seven-point loss. The Warriors will have their backs against the wall facing elimination in Game 5 on Wednesday.
Julius Randle had 31 points (11-of-21 FGs), five rebounds, three assists, one steal, one block and four three-pointers in Game 4 against the Warriors on Monday.
Anthony Edwards had 30 points (11-of-21 FGs), four rebounds, five assists, two steals and six three-pointers in the Timberwolves’ 117-110 victory over the Warriors in Game 4 on Monday.
Derrick White had 23 points (6-of-12 FGs), three rebounds, two assists and six three-pointers against the Knicks in Game 4 on Monday.
White was the Celtics second leading scorer in Game 4, but he was the only consistent scorer for Boston outside of Jayson Tatum. The 30-year-old point guard got all of his points on six three-pointers and five free throws. Unfortunately for the Celtics it wasn’t enough as Boston was trailing when Tatum went down with a lower leg injury in the final minutes, essentially taking a comeback off the table. The Celtics will look to stave off elimination with their backs against the wall at home in Game 5 on Wednesday.