NBA Best Bets & Player Props January 12: James Harden Takes on the Memphis Grizzlies
Isaiah Hartenstein comes through again, although he made us sweat it out until the last half of the fourth quarter. The Lebron James and Kevin Durant boost turned out to be fool’s gold and that is why boosts are rarely recommended. Today is a new day though and there are ten NBA games. Only one team is on the second of back-to-back games, the Portland Trailblazers who were embarrassed last night losing 139-77 against the Oklahoma City Thunder.
There are two games on ESPN and the opening game is the Houston Rockets at Detroit Pistons. A new favorite prop will make another appearance at plus odds. The Sacramento Kings at Philadelphia 76ers tip off at the same time as the Rockets/Pistons game. There will also be a prop bet in what should be a tightly contested game… even with Joel Embiid out.
There is also a Western Conference battle between the LA Clippers and Memphis Grizzlies, in a match with several points expected a prop at near even odds sticks out. Today will be a P.R.A. (points, rebounds, assists) combination of props, but the Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bet of the Night starts with rebounding.
NBA Bet of the Night
Jalen Duren OVER 11.5 Rebounds (+100 at BetMGM 2 Unit)
Jalen Duren was almost automatic, but when looking at his upcoming matchups, decided it was better to lay off the rebounding line. He is back on, and playing against the Houston Rockets, which they played on January first. Duren’s over was recommended that day, and it is a double unit recommendation today. He earned fourteen rebounds in under twenty-three minutes when he played on New Year’s Day, and he earned twelve in his most recent game against the much taller San Antonio Spurs.
The Houston Rockets allow the seventh most rebounds per game with 53.3, and roughly twenty per game to opposing centers. In addition to that the Rockets allow the second fewest assists per game, 24.0. Houston wants to take away backcuts and force low-percentage shots. This has led to Houston’s second-best defense, allowing only 110.6 points per game. This correlates to more offensive rebounding opportunities for J. Duren who has eighteen this month, a three per game average.
The Houston Rockets starting center, Alperen Sengun, also spends a great deal of time outside of the paint. This too works in Duren’s favor with no true center to compete for defensive rebounds. The young man has been a constant rebounder, and taking the over on rebounds has been very profitable. Put two units on the Pistons center tonight.
NBA Prop Bets of the Night
Domantas Sabonis OVER 22.5 Points (-125 at DraftKings)
Domantas Sabonis’ rebounds per game are up from last year and he is currently the best rebounder in the league…again. His points are up as well, and the Sacramento Kings are playing the Philadelphia 76ers tonight who are still without Joel Embiid. Sabonis has scored twenty-two points or more in every game but one this month, a blowout loss in which he played less than twenty-nine minutes. The line is projected to be close, with no spread, or -1 depending on the sportsbook.
Sabonis and the Kings have three upcoming road games and they will be tough; Philadelphia 76ers, Milwaukee Bucks, Phoenix Suns. Their previous three games have been blowouts and they should bring maximum effort and a full lineup tonight. Philadelphia has allowed the sixth most points inside the arch over the past three games, and Sabonis should thrive.
James Harden OVER 9.5 Assists (-105 DraftKings)
James Harden has been dishing out dimes left and right for the Los Angeles Clippers. The Clippers are 5-1 this month, and J. Harden is playing arguably the best basketball of his career. It is not his high-point performances he had with the Rockets, but his point guard play has been elite. He is averaging over ten assists per game and over four rebounds per game this month. He is not putting his team in bad situations with laziness or selfish shooting either.
The Clippers are playing against the Memphis Grizzlies tonight who allow 25.8 assists per game, and the fourth most to opposing point guards with 14.76 per game. The point lines of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are set at 23.5, which would be forty-seven points. Harden will be giving the assists on several of those expected points, and ten assists against the Memphis Grizzlies is more than obtainable. Cheer ‘The Beard’ and hope his teammates have great shooting nights.
Thank you for reading and remember to check out Fantasy Alarm for all your Fantasy and Betting needs.
Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy
*All Bets to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise
Player News
ESPN’s Shams Charania reports the Celtics have converted two-way G JD Davison to a standard contract.
Davison was drafted 53rd overall in 2022 and has been with Boston his entire career, though he has spent most of his time with their G League affiliate in Maine. He has made 15 appearances in the NBA this season and will likely play a significant role in the regular season finale on Sunday. The 22-year-old will remain with the Celtics on a standard deal heading into next season, but he will likely spend most of his time in Maine once again.
Jaylen Brown received pain management injections in his right knee but is expected to be ready for the first round of the playoffs.
Brown, who has missed Boston’s last two games and will remain out for the season finale on Sunday, will have nearly two weeks between his final regular season appearance and Game 1 of their first round series. They will host either the Magic or the Hawks in the first round. It isn’t a good sign that he had to receive injections, but at this point, it isn’t expected to impact his postseason availability.
Dorian Finney-Smith shot 6-of-9 from the field in Friday’s win over the Rockets, scoring 18 points with three steals and six three-pointers in 30 minutes.
Friday’s victory secured the three-seed in the West for the Lakers, which would mean a second-round matchup with Houston if both teams got out of the first round. For that reason, Finney-Smith’s last two performances against the Rockets were notable. After shooting 6-of-11 from three in the Lakers’ March 31 win over Houston, he was 6-of-8 on Friday. From a fantasy standpoint, Finney-Smith provided the three-pointers and steals on Friday that many managers expect from him. We’ll see if he plays against Portland on Sunday, as nothing will be on the line for the Lakers.
Austin Reaves tallied 23 points (9-of-15 FGs, 2-of-2 FTs), seven rebounds, six assists, two steals and three three-pointers in 33 minutes in Friday’s win over the Rockets.
Luka Doncic recorded 39 points (13-of-19 FGs, 8-of-14 FTs), eight rebounds, seven assists, one steal and five three-pointers in 31 minutes in Friday’s win over the Rockets.
Reed Sheppard amassed 14 points (5-of-14 FGs), three rebounds, five assists, two steals, one block and four three-pointers in 41 minutes in Friday’s loss to the Lakers.