NBA Best Bets & Player Props December 22: Trae Young Gets Buckets
We were so close to the sweep yesterday, Coby White left us on the hook, 0.5 points from the line. Although the goal is to win every bet placed, a betting philosophy comes from an unlikely source, Meat Loaf. It was the wise poet Meat Loaf, who gave the inspirational message, ‘Don’t be sad, ‘cause, baby, two out of three ain’t bad.’ A Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bet philosophy is to stay present, and today there are six NBA games. There are two nationally televised games, and on different networks, which rarely happens. Jamal Murray and the Denver Nuggets continue their road trip against the Brooklyn Nets, and there will be a wager on this matchup. A Southeast Division rivalry takes place tonight as Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks travel to South Beach to play the Miami Heat with a tip off at 8:00 PM ET. Also, in what could be the game of the night, the Sacramento Kings host the Phoenix Suns with a 10:00 PM ET tip off. A prop bet looks to take advantage of a positional mismatch in this Western Conference battle.
BET OF THE NIGHT: TRAE YOUNG OVER 27.5 POINTS -125 MGM 2 UNIT
Even if the Atlanta Hawks have a losing record, 12-15, Trae Young is playing well. They have lost six of their last ten games, but have won their last two. The Miami Heat are 16-12 and won six of their last ten games, and have been hit by injuries this season. Despite that, the Heat allow only 111.8 points per game and the seventh fewest points to opposing point guards. Trae Young is simply too hot right now to accept the expected drop in his points. He has thirty-five or more minutes, and thirty or more points in his last five games, and every game but one this month. The game he did not score thirty was against a determined Denver Nuggets team and Young did not play much of the fourth quarter. The Atlanta Hawks put up 134 points against the Houston Rockets two nights ago, who are only allowing 108.4 points per game in a much more difficult conference. T. Young scored thirty points that night, and Houston has much better perimeter defenders than Miami. The sportsbook model predicts a drop in points, but the data suggest Trae Young is an exception to the projected models. Place two units and look for another thirty-five minute, thirty point game from the All-Star.
STRAIGHT BET: DENVER NUGGETS MONEYLINE -185 MGM 2 UNIT
Taking a road team to cover a negative spread is usually a risky situation. Great teams cover the spread, and the Denver Nuggets did that at home on December 14 against the Brooklyn Nets winning by twenty-three points. The risk seems too high on the first night of back-to-back games for the defending champions to cover -5. Aaron Gordon is probable for tonight and Jamal Murray is not listed on the injury report for the first time in over a week. Nic Claxton had trouble with Nikola Jokicin their previous match, and the Brooklyn Nets do not have a defender to slow down Jamal Murray or Michael Porter Jr. should either of them have a good shooting night. The double unit bet on the moneyline returns over one unit, and still cashes should it be a closer game than anticipated.
PROP BET: DOMANTAS SABONIS OVER 12.5 REBOUNDS -125
This bet has appeared on the Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets before, and it was a successful wager. It appears tonight not only because Domantas Sabonis is an excellent rebounder, but also due to the fact that Phoenix Suns starting center Jusuf Nurkic is out for personal reasons. The Sacramento Kings are on an extended streak of home games, playing the fifth of six straight home games. They are on the first of back-to-back games but with Devin Booker and Kevin Durant both playing, Sacramento will not be able to breeze their way to a rested fourth quarter. D. Sabonis has covered this prop in two of his last four home games, is averaging 12.2 rebounds per game, and should see plenty of defensive rebounding opportunities from a team not quite in an offensive rhythm. The cost of Phoenix’s ‘Big Three’ has forced some less than average players on their roster. D. Sabonis will be playing against Chimezie Matu, Drew Eubanks, Udoka Azubuike, and possibly Bol Bol… names most bettors and casual NBA fans have never heard of. Look for D. Sabonis to control the glass, and earn over thirteen rebounds on his home court tonight.
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Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy
*All Bets to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise
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Friday’s victory secured the three-seed in the West for the Lakers, which would mean a second-round matchup with Houston if both teams got out of the first round. For that reason, Finney-Smith’s last two performances against the Rockets were notable. After shooting 6-of-11 from three in the Lakers’ March 31 win over Houston, he was 6-of-8 on Friday. From a fantasy standpoint, Finney-Smith provided the three-pointers and steals on Friday that many managers expect from him. We’ll see if he plays against Portland on Sunday, as nothing will be on the line for the Lakers.
Austin Reaves tallied 23 points (9-of-15 FGs, 2-of-2 FTs), seven rebounds, six assists, two steals and three three-pointers in 33 minutes in Friday’s win over the Rockets.
Luka Doncic recorded 39 points (13-of-19 FGs, 8-of-14 FTs), eight rebounds, seven assists, one steal and five three-pointers in 31 minutes in Friday’s win over the Rockets.
Reed Sheppard amassed 14 points (5-of-14 FGs), three rebounds, five assists, two steals, one block and four three-pointers in 41 minutes in Friday’s loss to the Lakers.
Cam Whitmore shot 13-of-19 from the field and 1-of-1 from the foul line in Friday’s loss to the Lakers, scoring 34 points with eight rebounds, one assist, one steal, one block and seven three-pointers in 37 minutes in Friday’s loss to the Lakers.
LeBron James (leg) finished Friday’s win over the Rockets with 14 points (6-of-11 FGs, 1-of-1 FTs), four rebounds, eight assists, one steal and one three-pointer in 22 minutes.
James suffered an apparent left leg injury during the third quarter of Friday’s game, exiting with 7:27 remaining. He did not return, with some wondering if the 40-year-old tweaked the groin injury that sidelined him for seven games in mid-March. However, the heating pad applied to James’ leg appeared to be on his quad. Following the game, Lakers coach JJ Redick said Friday’s victory secured the three-seed in the West, so there’s no reason for James to play in Sunday’s game against the Trail Blazers. Expect plenty of Dalton Knecht after the rookie only logged four minutes against the Rockets.