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Game 3s are tricky to analyze. On the one hand, after seeing teams clash twice, we should have a pretty idea of how the series will go. On the other hand, with the series shifting to a different arena, we can expect Game 3 to be at least a little bit different than the first two games. When you add in the adjustments both coaches are sure to make, you have a lot of factors to consider when evaluating DraftEasy’s NBA Over/Unders. I’m always up for a challenge, and eager to redeem myself after falling on my face last week. Let’s get right to it.
GSW @ NOP
Anthony Davis 3.5 STL+BS: OVER
Davis averaged 2.6 blocks and 1.5 steals per game over the regular season, and he is up to 2.7 blocks and 2.0 steals per game in the playoffs. He combined for five STL+BS in each of the first two games of this series, and he he has been under 3.5 STL+BS just once in these playoffs. Davis topped 3.5 STL+BS in two of his three games against the Warriors during the regular season as well. Only the Cavaliers have allowed fewer opponent’s blocks in the playoffs than the Warriors, but that isn’t enough to convince me to take the Under.
Draymond Green 8.5 REB: OVER
Green has at least nine rebounds in four straight games after failing to top eight rebounds in his first three playoff games. He topped 8.5 rebounds in two of his four regular season games against New Orleans, though DeMarcus Cousins was healthy both of the times Draymond went Under. Only three teams have allowed more opponent’s rebounds in the playoffs than the Pelicans.
Kevin Durant 32.5 PTS: UNDER
Durant has gone over 32.5 points just once in these playoffs, and while he may get higher-quality shots now that Steph Curry has returned from his MCL injury, he is unlikely to take more shots. Durant went 10-21 from the field in Game 1 and 11-23 in Game 2. If you take the Over, you are banking on him shooting better than 50 percent from the field or getting to the free throw line more often. Only the Warriors and Cavaliers have allowed fewer free throws in the playoffs than the Pelicans, so I wouldn’t count on that.
Klay Thompson 4.5 3PM: UNDER
Like Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson may benefit from better quality shots now that Steph Curry is back. That being said, Thompson was 2-11 on threes in Game 2 and he hasn’t gone over 4.5 3PM since Game 2 against San Antonio. The Pelicans have allowed the fourth lowest three-point percentage in the playoffs, and while Thompson is certainly capable of going Over, the higher-percentage play is Under.
HOU @ UTA
Rudy Gobert 3.5 STL+BS: UNDER
Gobert averaged 2.3 BPG and 0.8 SPG in the regular season, and he is at 1.9 BPG and 1.0 SPG in the playoffs. That being said, he had just one steal and zero blocks in Game 1 of this series and three blocks and zero steals in Game 2. Gobert averaged just 1.3 blocks and 0.7 steals against Houston during the regular season, and I would expect his blocks to remain low against a team like the Rockets that is capable of spreading the floor with shooters and drawing Gobert out away from the basket.
Eric Gordon 1.5 AST: UNDER
This number feels super low until you realize Gordon averaged 2.2 APG during the regular season and 1.4 in these playoffs. He has gone over 1.5 AST in three of his seven playoff games, including one of the two in this series. Only the Pacers are allowing fewer opponent’s assists in the playoffs than the Jazz, which is what tips the scales toward the Under.
Donovan Mitchell 2.5 3PM: OVER
Mitchell is just good enough from beyond the arc to keep teams honest, shooting 34.0 percent on threes in the regular season and 32.2 percent in the playoffs. Mitchell is averaging 2.4 3PM in the playoffs, identical to his regular season number. He has struggled from deep in this series, going 1-7 in Game 1 and 2-8 in Game 2. The shots are going to start falling sooner than later, and it doesn’t hurt that he went over 2.5 3PM in all three home games in the first round.
Dante Exum 12.5 PTS: OVER
In my WinView Playbook for Game 2 of this series, I wrote that the Jazz “may need Exum to be an x-factor if they are to make this series competitive.” Exum scored nine points in each of the games in Houston, including posterizing Tarik Black to seal the Game 2 victory. Even so, he topped 12.5 points in just three of his 14 regular season games and none of his postseason contests. I would be shocked if he doesn’t go over 12.5 points at least once before this series is over, and it may as well be this game.