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Tonight’s Strategy
Experts love to say that DFS NBA is the easiest sport to play because of the lack of “variance”. What they do not say is that, it’s this same lack of “variance” that makes DFS NBA cash games, so unfriendly. How many times have you finished a half-point out of the money? Or, tied with seven people to win back $2.34 on a $5 double-up? This is that lack of “variance” stinging you in the proverbial ass. That is why I play GPPs and multipliers. And this time of season, with the playoffs drawing near, expect players to start getting rested a bit more often, closer to, or after lineup lock.
I also want to point out, I strongly believe the Warriors-Spurs game is going to be the makings of DFS nightmares.
As always, all fantasy ppg numbers are FanDuel specific.
So, with the band Gator King playing in the background, I bring you today’s Position Coach Article.
Point Guard
Even in a bad match-up, Damian Lillard tops my model tonight facing a Wizards team playing on some tired legs.
Kemba Walker gets a great defensive match-up with the Pelicans allowing the eighth most fantasy ppg to the one. Prior to his last game, he had scored over 40 fantasy ppg in five straight.
Kyrie Irving is facing an Orlando team allowing the seventh most fantasy ppg to the one, while averaging over 46 fantasy ppg in his last six.
Elfrid Payton on the flipside, also gets a great match-up facing Cleveland, and is averaging over 46 fantasy ppg in his last three. Keep in mind one of these games he dropped a 60-spot.
Yogi Ferrell faces a Phoenix team allowing the third most fantasy ppg to the one, and should drop 25 fantasy points tonight for cheap.
Jameer Nelson gets to face a Kings team also playing on tired legs tonight. He makes a nice play in GPPs due to his inconsistency, but I prefer Ferrell for around the same price.
Not going to promise the moon here but Shaun Livingston should see plenty of minutes tonight for the minimum to near minimum salary across the industry with all the Warriors out.
| 3Pt | FD | DK | Y! | ||||||||||||||||||
| PG | Tm | H/A | Opp | GP | mpg | FT% | m/G | Pts/g | Reb/g | Ast/g | Stl/g | Blk/g | TO/G | FG% | Usage | Pts/G | Pts/G | Pts/G | $FD | $DK | $Y |
| Kyrie Irving | CLE | A | ORL | 56 | 35.2 | 90% | 2.4 | 25.2 | 3.3 | 5.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 2.7 | 47% | 30.68% | 38.4 | 41.1 | 39.6 | $9300 | $8900 | $43 |
| Damian Lillard | POR | H | WAS | 58 | 36.1 | 90% | 2.5 | 25.9 | 5 | 5.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 2.6 | 44% | 30.76% | 40.2 | 43 | 41.5 | $8700 | $8600 | $44 |
| Kemba Walker | CHA | H | NOP | 64 | 34.5 | 85% | 2.9 | 23.2 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 2.2 | 45% | 28.83% | 36.7 | 39.5 | 38.2 | $8400 | $8100 | $41 |
| Elfrid Payton | ORL | H | CLE | 66 | 29 | 68% | 0.5 | 12.5 | 4.2 | 5.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 47% | 21.68% | 27.5 | 29 | 27.8 | $7000 | $7000 | $21 |
| Yogi Ferrell | DAL | H | PHX | 10 | 15.1 | 63% | 0.8 | 5.4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 37% | 21.93% | 8.8 | 10 | 9.2 | $5200 | $5200 | $16 |
| Jameer Nelson | DEN | A | SAC | 64 | 26.6 | 71% | 1.3 | 9.1 | 2.5 | 5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 45% | 16.08% | 19.4 | 21 | 20 | $5100 | $4600 | $18 |
| Shaun Livingston | GSW | A | SAS | 59 | 17.3 | 63% | 0.0 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 54% | 13.49% | 10.5 | 11.1 | 10.5 | $3500 | $3200 | $10 |
Shooting Guard
I am not going to beat a dead horse here, but with Kyle Lowry out, I will be rostering DeMar DeRozan on a nightly basis, regardless of match-up.
C.J. McCollum besides facing the Wizards tonight, also benefits from one of the better defensive match-ups from the Portland side of things. I smell a 40-spot here.
Evan Fournier, facing the Cavs who allow the second most fantasy ppg to the two? This is one of them nights where Fournier throws up a 30-spot.
Gary Harris facing the Kings who allow the fourth most fantasy ppg to the two seems real enticing tonight as well. Although he falls off the map once-and-awhile, he is averaging over 25 fantasy ppg in his last three.
For savings in them boom-or-bust GPPs, both Garrett Temple, and Jeremy Lamb are lighting up my model tonight. Both players are in positions to exceed value, or give you nothing to write home about.
| 3Pt | FD | DK | Y! | ||||||||||||||||||
| SG | Tm | H/A | Opp | GP | mpg | FT% | m/G | Pts/g | Reb/g | Ast/g | Stl/g | Blk/g | TO/G | FG% | Usage | Pts/G | Pts/G | Pts/G | $FD | $DK | $Y |
| DeMar DeRozan | TOR | A | MIA | 58 | 35.6 | 85% | 0.4 | 27.4 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 46% | 34.28% | 39.6 | 41.3 | 39.9 | $9700 | $8400 | $47 |
| C.J. McCollum | POR | H | WAS | 63 | 34.9 | 90% | 2.4 | 23.3 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 1 | 0.6 | 2.3 | 48% | 27.76% | 33.8 | 36.4 | 35 | $7000 | $7100 | $33 |
| Evan Fournier | ORL | H | CLE | 53 | 33.2 | 80% | 1.7 | 16.8 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 43% | 23.64% | 25.5 | 27.6 | 26.3 | $5600 | $5700 | $20 |
| Gary Harris | DEN | A | SAC | 41 | 29.6 | 76% | 1.9 | 14 | 3 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 49% | 18.67% | 22.8 | 24.5 | 23.7 | $5600 | $5600 | $21 |
| Garrett Temple | SAC | H | DEN | 52 | 26.6 | 78% | 1.2 | 7.7 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 1 | 43% | 13.47% | 16.8 | 18 | 17.4 | $4300 | $3800 | $10 |
| Jeremy Lamb | CHA | H | NOP | 45 | 18.2 | 83% | 0.7 | 9.3 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 45% | 22.72% | 16.9 | 17.7 | 17.2 | $3800 | $3300 | $10 |
Small Forward
If you fade LeBron James tonight, which I am, the next best option is Wilson Chandler. He is starting in the four facing a Kings team allowing the seventh most fantasy ppg to the position. I say he drops a 40-spot tonight.
Harrison Barnes is facing a Phoenix team allowing the sixth most fantasy ppg to the three while Barnes on a good night can light up the fantasy scoreboard.
Moe Harkless, the match-up could be better, but I am all in on Trailblazers, and Nuggets tonight, with Harkless being no different.
Matt Barnes should start at SF tonight for the Warriors, minus Kawhi Leonard for the Spurs. I strongly suspect with the resting of the Warriors starters, or should I say the “wussing” out, that Barnes will be highly owned. Even by myself.
Thabo Sefolosha came off the bench last night but should draw the start tonight for next to nothing across the industry. Roughly every other game he goes off, that would be tonight.
| 3Pt | FD | DK | Y! | ||||||||||||||||||
| SF | Tm | H/A | Opp | GP | mpg | FT% | m/G | Pts/g | Reb/g | Ast/g | Stl/g | Blk/g | TO/G | FG% | Usage | Pts/G | Pts/G | Pts/G | $FD | $DK | $Y |
| Wilson Chandler | DEN | A | SAC | 59 | 31.1 | 73% | 1.6 | 16.2 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 1.7 | 46% | 22.68% | 28.1 | 30.1 | 28.9 | $7000 | $7100 | $29 |
| Harrison Barnes | DAL | H | PHX | 64 | 35.9 | 85% | 1 | 20 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 47% | 26.16% | 29.3 | 30.7 | 29.8 | $6000 | $6400 | $26 |
| Moe Harkless | POR | H | WAS | 59 | 29.6 | 63% | 1 | 10.7 | 4.9 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1 | 1.2 | 49% | 15.89% | 21.3 | 22.7 | 21.8 | $4800 | $5400 | $17 |
| Matt Barnes | GSW | A | SAS | 54 | 25.3 | 76% | 1.3 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 38% | 15.58% | 18.8 | 20.4 | 19.4 | $4200 | $3300 | $14 |
| Thabo Sefolosha | ATL | A | MEM | 53 | 26.1 | 75% | 0.6 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 45% | 13.42% | 18.7 | 19.7 | 19 | $3900 | $4000 | $10 |
Power Forward
Nikola Jokic, who much like Anthony Davis, is still sitting in the PF slot on FD when he should be at center, is the only PF on the slate capable of dropping a 50-spot. If you fade Davis.
LaMarcus Aldridge, if he plays, becomes the man when Leonard is out. He also benefits from a positive match-up with the Warriors allowing the eighth most fantasy ppg to the position.
Gorgui Dieng is one of them players you just bypass on a regular basis, even in decent match-ups. The reality is, he is semi-reliable and capable of scoring well into the 30-spot range in a good match-up.
David West, you would think at some point should see a huge number of minutes. He has never cracked the 20-fantasy point mark on FD this season, perhaps tonight is the night. GPP only, for sure.
Anthony Tolliver, I am not going to go to crazy here, but he did only play 17-minutes last night in a late overtime affair. I suspect he will play plenty of minutes versus a Nuggets team not known for its defense.
| 3Pt | FD | DK | Y! | ||||||||||||||||||
| PF | Tm | H/A | Opp | GP | mpg | FT% | m/G | Pts/g | Reb/g | Ast/g | Stl/g | Blk/g | TO/G | FG% | Usage | Pts/G | Pts/G | Pts/G | $FD | $DK | $Y |
| Nikola Jokic | DEN | A | SAC | 56 | 27.1 | 80% | 0.6 | 16 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 2.3 | 59% | 22.94% | 35 | 37 | 35.4 | $10100 | $10300 | $48 |
| LaMarcus Aldridge | SAS | H | GSW | 58 | 32.6 | 81% | 0.3 | 17.3 | 7.4 | 2 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 47% | 24.41% | 31.2 | 32.4 | 31.3 | $6900 | $6400 | $27 |
| Gorgui Dieng | MIN | A | MIL | 64 | 31.8 | 78% | 0.2 | 10.1 | 7.9 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 50% | 14.56% | 25.3 | 26.4 | 25.4 | $5600 | $5200 | $19 |
| Anthony Tolliver | SAC | H | DEN | 53 | 23.3 | 76% | 1.3 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 43% | 13.16% | 13.8 | 15.1 | 14.5 | $3600 | $3200 | $10 |
| David West | GSW | A | SAS | 51 | 11.7 | 73% | 0.0 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 1 | 52% | 17.02% | 12 | 12.6 | 12 | $3500 | $3000 | $10 |
Center
DeMarcus Cousins who should be in the PF slot on FD is still waiting for that bus to arrive. Meanwhile, you can take advantage of the only center on the slate capable of dropping 70-spots. Especially if Davis hurts himself opening a ketchup packet or something.
Jusuf Nurkic, is the last Portland player I am “all in” on tonight. He is averaging over 45 fantasy ppg in his las four, including a 70-spot, that is not a typo. What was that I said about Cousins?
Finally, I bring you my favorite player whose last name rhymes with Bob Feller, you guessed it, Cody Zeller. The Pelicans are allowing a ton of fantasy ppg to the center position and Zeller can put up 30 fantasy points on occasion for peanuts salary wise.
| 3Pt | FD | DK | Y! | ||||||||||||||||||
| Center | Tm | H/A | Opp | GP | mpg | FT% | m/G | Pts/g | Reb/g | Ast/g | Stl/g | Blk/g | TO/G | FG% | Usage | Pts/G | Pts/G | Pts/G | $FD | $DK | $Y |
| DeMarcus Cousins | NOP | A | CHA | 55 | 34.4 | 77% | 1.7 | 27.8 | 10.6 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 3.8 | 45% | 36.74% | 49.4 | 52.7 | 50.3 | $10500 | $10100 | $54 |
| Jusuf Nurkic | POR | H | WAS | 45 | 17.9 | 50% | 0.0 | 8 | 5.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 51% | 23.32% | 17.7 | 18.9 | 17.7 | $6800 | $6700 | $20 |
| Cody Zeller | CHA | H | NOP | 45 | 27.1 | 67% | 0.0 | 10.5 | 6.6 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 1 | 1.2 | 58% | 16.15% | 23.1 | 24 | 23.1 | $5100 | $5200 | $14 |
I just want to throw it out there that I could roster Lillard, DeRozan, Jokic, and Cousins in my main lineup tonight using this article.
Good luck tonight, any questions email me at therealjerrycolvin@yahoo.com or hit me up on Twitter @realjerrycolvin
Go Dodgers!