NBA Best Bets Today, 4/20: Picks, Predictions & Player Props - NBA Sunday
The Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Clippers game lived up to the hype, but Nikola Jokic’s stats came up just short for the +550 same game parlay. Yesterday’s prediction that the Minnesota Timberwolves would be victorious was true, but the expectation was not for them to win 117 - 98 over the Los Angeles Lakers. That was a lockdown defensive effort by Minnesota. Anthony Edwards did not make five three point field goals, and only scored 22 points thus ruining the parlay.
Karl-Anthony Towns had an outstanding game with 23 points and 11 rebounds, which led the Knicks by four more rebounds than the next person. However it was not enough to get off the hook, as Towns was 1 rebound short of covering 11.5. It was a rough outing during the first day of the playoffs, but today’s best bets are single wager winners.
NBA Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 4/20
Eight more teams begin their playoff journey today, and there should be more than plastic eggs from the 04/20 funny bunny. There are three stand alone wagers, and the first NBA best bet today is at plus odds.
Warriors vs Rockets Prediction: HOU -3.5 (+120 on DraftKings Sportsbook) *BET OF THE NIGHT
The Houston Rockets host the Golden State Warriors at the Toyota Center, in what is the closest projected spread of the day. Houston is favored by -1.0 points or less than one field goal. Although the Warriors have over 400 combined playoff games on their roster, Houston seems poised to take the step to the next level.
They quietly went about securing the second overall position in the Western Conference, and they split against the Warriors 2 - 2 this season. The Rockets have a complete roster led by their sixth best defense which allows just 109.8 points per game. They have a +4.5 point differential this season and should come out with a fast start against Golden State.
The Rockets are 43 - 39 against the spread this season, and had a 29 - 12 record on their home court. The Warriors have several players that can go on a scoring spree, but Houston has the defense and team play to withstand the Warriors offensive onslaught.
Instead of taking the -1 spread, tease it up to -3.5 and move the bet to more favorable odds. 67% of the money is on the Warriors moneyline, and a public fade is the best bet of the day. Put a unit on it at DraftKings, and for those that have not utilized the sportsbook, make sure to take advantage of Fantasy Alarm’s exclusive offer.
Magic vs Celtics Prediction: Total Over 205.5 (-110 on BetMGM)
The Boston Celtics begin their title defense against the Orlando Magic in front of the Celtics fans at TD Garden. The two best defenses in the Association collide and it has caused the lowest projected total of the day, 205.5. Despite that fact 92% of the money is for the game to go over the total line.
The Magic ended the season with the best defense allowing just 105.5 points per game. The Celtics have the second best defense in the Association, allowing just 107.2 points per game. However Boston scores 116.3 points per game, and Orlando 105.4, which when combined equals 221.7 points. That is over 16 points more than the projected total of this match, and Boston is well rested for game one. Meanwhile Orlando won their match Tuesday, giving them four full days of rest.
Boston has scorers at every level and their bench is just as great offensively. They have a roster compiled of nine great scorers, and 120 points seems well within their reach. Should that happen Orlando would need just 86 points to make this total achievable. Although the referees have been true to the popular statement, regular season fouls do not always equate to playoff fouls, Boston is not dependent on free throws to score.
Paolo Banchero has been one of the best offensive players since the All-Star break and looks 100% healed from his oblique injury that kept him out for several games this season. Meanwhile Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Kristaps Porzingis have proven multiple times they are capable of 35+ points on any given night.
Put a unit on this game to go over 205.5 points and possibly make a ladder for more points to be scored. To those new to BetMGM, make sure to take advantage of Fantasy Alarm’s promotion offer.
Best NBA Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 4/20
The last NBA best bet today features the probable MVP candidate, as he looks to lead a state to an experience they have never been fortunate enough to feel.
Memphis vs Thunder Prediction: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 32.5 points (-115 on Bet365)
The Oklahoma City Thunder host the Memphis Grizzlies at the Paycom Center in the first match today on ABC. The game begins at 1:00 PM ET, and the Thunder are -13.5 point favorites on their homecourt. Oklahoma City had the best record of the regular season, 68 - 14, and won 35 of 41 home games this season. That is impressive to say the least.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been praised for his scoring ability, and leading the Thunder to a run away record in a tough conference. They finished 16 games ahead of the second placed Houston Rockets, which has several NBA media personnel believing the Thunder will breeze their way to the NBA Finals.
Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 32.7 points per game this season, and his points proposition is set near his average, 32.5 points. Unfortunately for him tough defensive play has been allowed thus far in the playoffs. He led the league in free throw attempts this season with 606, or 8.8 per game, which for the record is 155 more than Nikola Jokic attempted.
If even half of those free throw attempts disappear for Gilgeous-Alexander his point total will decline. If the Grizzlies double team him his point total will take a hit, as well as his stress go up. If he needs time to get into rhythm in his first game in 12 days, it will be reflected in his point total.
There are several scenarios for Gilgeous-Alexander to score less than his average tonight, and only one path to scoring above it. Put a unit on it right now at Bet365, and for new customers, make sure to take advantage of the promotional code below.
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Player News
Buddy Hield had 15 points (5-of-14 FGs), three rebounds, one assist, one steal and four three-pointers against the Timberwolves in Game 2 on Thursday.
Hield moved into the Warriors’ starting lineup in the first round and the team became somewhat reliant on his scoring. With Stephen Curry (hamstring) out in Game 2, Hield started and played 29 minutes. The 32-year-old shooting guard led the Warriors in field goal attempts, though no one in a Golden State uniform was able to reach 20 points. The Warriors weren’t able to overcome a double-digit first half deficit. Despite the four made three-pointers, they’re going to need more from Hield as the series shifts to Golden State, especially if Curry remains out.
Jimmy Butler had 17 points (6-of-13 FGs), seven rebounds, four assists, one steal and two three-pointers against the Timberwolves in Game 2 on Thursday.
Butler couldn’t get it done without Stephen Curry (hamstring) on the road in Game 2. The Warriors fell behind by double-digits early and never recovered. Butler had 17 points on 13 shots, which wasn’t far off from the 20 points he had in Game 1. Still, the Warriors have to regroup as they head home for Games 3 and 4 as they try to figure out a way to keep this series close until Curry can return to the court.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker had 20 points (7-of-13 FGs), two rebounds, three assists, one block and four three-pointers in Game 2 against the Warriors on Thursday.
Alexander-Walker was a key scorer off the bench in Game 2. He, Naz Reid and Donte DiVencenzo combined for 10 made three-pointers off the bench. In a game where the Warriors were desperate for scoring without Stephen Curry (hamstring), those bench points were too much to overcome as the Timberwolves won by 24 points.
Julius Randle had 24 points (10-of-17 FGs), seven rebounds, 11 assists and one three-pointer in Game 2 against the Warriors on Thursday.
Randle led the Timberwolves in scoring in the Game 2 victory. The 30-year-old power forward was just three rebounds away from a triple-double. He was a steadying presence in his 33 minutes as Anthony Edwards dealt with an ankle injury towards the end of the first half. Edwards recovered from his injury to play 34 minutes, but Randle is still the next most important player in this series for the Timberwolves.
Anthony Edwards had 20 points (6-of-13 FGs), nine rebounds, five assists, three steals, one block and two three-pointers in the Timberwolves’ 117-93 victory over the Warriors in Game 2 on Thursday.
Edwards appeared to suffer a sprained left ankle towards the end of the second quarter as the Warriors’ Trayce Jackson-Davis landed on his foot. Edwards turned the same ankle in the first round against the Lakers and appeared to re-aggravate the injury. The 23-year-old shooting guard would go on to start the second half and play a team-high 34 minutes in the Game 2 victory. Edwards will only have one full day off before the series resumes in Golden State for Game 3 on Saturday.
Warriors will start Brandin Podziemski, Buddy Hield, Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green and Quinten Post in Game 2 against the Timberwolves on Thursday.
No surprise here as Curry was always a long shot to make it back for Game 2 after leaving Game 1 with hamstring injury. While there has been a report that the 37-year-old point guard is expected to miss a week, there is no firm timetable for his return. The Warriors will go big with their starting lineup for Game 2 with center Quinten Post entering the lineup in Curry’s absence.