NBA Best Bets Today, 4/28: Picks, Predictions & Player Props - NBA Playoffs
+2.6 units were gained yesterday, as Fantasy Alarm NBA Best bets beat down the sportsbooks in game four. Karl-Anthony Towns delivered on the teased up point line, scoring 27 points to help the New York Knicks slip by the Detroit Pistons for the second consecutive road game.
The Betting Bungalow data proves true again, as Anthony Edwards cleared his plus odds proposition of over 5.5 assists. Due to that the Minnesota Timberwolves won game four against the Los Angeles Lakers by three points, and have a commanding 3 - 1 lead as they head back to California.
The Orlando Magic were unable to stay within the +7.0 spread given to them, as the Boston Celtics reminded everyone who the top dog was. The Indiana Pacers did outscore the Milwaukee Bucks once again in the first quarter, and throughout the game. Indiana had a wire to wire win on the road, and they just need one more win to advance to the next round. However our +120 wager needed just the first quarter lead.
NBA Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 4/28
There are just two playoff matches today, one from each conference. In the East one fan base will have the brooms out, and in the West everything is up in the air. The first NBA best bet comes from South Beach, Miami.
Cavaliers vs Heat Prediction: Davion Mitchell o1.5 3PM (+124 on DraftKings Sportsbook) *BET OF THE NIGHT
The Miami Heat host the Cleveland Cavaliers at the Kaseya Center, in what could be the last game of this series. If Cleveland wins they will have completed the sweep and await the winner of the Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks match. Miami has the experience to pull off a win but Cleveland has the roster to beat any team in the Association.
The spread is currently -9.0 in favor of the Cavaliers, and the total is 211.5 points. Indicating the Cavaliers defense will hold the Miami Heat’s offense to near 100 points. The Heat have a realistic opportunity to win and could cover the spread. Instead of taking a risk on a straight bet, the plan is to return to a player proposition that has been successful for every game of this series.
Davion Mitchell has an important role for the Miami Heat during the first round. He has played 34 or more minutes in all three games, and although he is known for his stingy defense, his three point field goals has been very profitable. His amount has been 1.5 throughout the playoffs, and it is once again, with the best odds found on Draftkings Sportsbook.
Mitchell’s three point outcome for each game allowed minimal room for error. He has gone two of three, two of four, and two of two from behind the arc. He simply needs to maintain his playoff average of two made for this plus odds proposition to be successful. Put a unit on it at DraftKings right now, and for those new to the sportsbook, make sure to take advantage of Fantasy Alarm’s promotional offer.
Rockets vs Warriors Prediction: Golden State Under 24.5 Points in 1st Quarter (+100 on BETMGM)
The Golden State Warriors host the Houston Rockets at the Chase Center, and are currently ahead in the series 2 - 1. The Warriors were able to win their first home playoff game despite not having Jimmy Butler. He is listed as day to day for game four and his injury should be monitored.
The Warriors are an older team, and the Rockets are a tough defensive team. Combined that has led to Houston posing a lead at the end of every first quarter. In order they are 21 - 18, 28 - 18, and 22 - 18. The Warriors have been held to just 18 points in three consecutive matches, and with so much at stake for the Rockets, the expectation is for Houston to do it again.
Houston will need to play with an urgency in order to avoid going down 1 - 3. With the athleticism that the Rockets have, expect them to come out playing with tough defense. That should lead to more offensive, fast-break points for Houston.
Put a unit on Golden State to score less than 24.5 points once again at BETMGM. For new customers to the app, make sure to take advantage of a $1,500 bet from Fantasy Alarm.
Best NBA Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 4/28
With two games today, the last NBA best bet today comes from game four in California.
Rockets vs Warriors Prediction: HOU ML (+145 on Bet365)
The theme continues for the third best bet, as the expectation is for Houston to steal a game in San Francisco. Should Jimmy Butler not play, the Rockets have gametape on how Golden state looks to score.
The Warriors are slight favorites at home, but the Rockets are the second seed of the Western Conference for a reason. They have a real opportunity to gain back a home court advantage and put more stress on an older roster. Both coaches are smart, and know how to put their players in the best position.
As of now neither team has been able to win two in a row, and that is a credit to the coaching staff making adjustments. This should be more of the same as Alperen Sengun will step up his performance. His field goal percentage and points have been down. It would not be surprising for Sengun to have the best playoff performance of his career in today’s game.
Expect the Rockets to clamp down the defense and keep the Warriors from scoring streaks. Put a unit on it at Bet365 and for those new to the sportsbook make sure to take advantage of the promotional offer below.
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Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy
Player News
Aaron Gordon had a quiet night, finishing with 13 points (6-of-13 FGs, 0-of-1 FTs), five rebounds, three assists, one steal, and one three-pointer in the Nuggets’ loss to the Thunder on Tuesday.
Gordon was mostly held in check on the offensive end, finishing with his fewest three-point makes of the series, the second-lowest scoring output, and no production from the free throw line. While Gordon has made several big plays down the stretch of games this postseason, he was notably quiet in Game 5, making his line feel even less spectacular. He’s performed well in Denver’s two home games this series and will need to empty the tank on Thursday in Game 6 to help the Nuggets keep their season alive.
Jamal Murray scored 28 points (10-of-27 FGs, 5-of-5 FTs), four rebounds, three assists, one block and three three-pointers in 42 minutes for the Nuggets in their loss to the Thunder on Tuesday.
Murray registered his third 20-plus-point game of the series on Tuesday, but did so on rather inefficient shooting. A monster 13-point third quarter is where much of his production came from, which gave Denver a decent lead going into the final quarter. However, Murray cooled off down the stretch, scoring five of Denver’s 19 points in the fourth quarter. Both he and the rest of the Nuggets will want a better close to Thursday’s Game 6 if they hope to extend their season.
Nikola Jokic was dominant in the Nuggets’ loss to the Thunder on Tuesday, posting 44 points (17-of-25 FGs, 5-of-5 FTs), 15 rebounds, five assists, two steals, and 5 three-pointers.
Jokic bounced back in a big way on Tuesday after a few inefficient shooting performances in Games 2, 3 and 4. The three-time MVP had his fingerprints all over the game on the offensive side, regaining his shooting touch and being particularly dangerous from beyond the arc. He made some contributions as a passer, but still hasn’t found a way to dominate in this series as a facilitator, not yet tallying more than six assists in any game. Even with the Nuggets receiving the inevitable bounce-back game for Jokic, it wasn’t enough for them to take control of the series. Denver will need everything it can get from Jokic in Thursday’s Game 6 if it wants to extend the season.
Luguentz Dort came up big for the Thunder in their win over the Nuggets on Tuesday, finishing with 12 points (4-of-8 FGs), three rebounds, one assist and four three-pointers.
Well-known for his prowess on the defensive end, Dort’s offensive eruption in the fourth quarter helped the Thunder climb from out of a big hole to secure a come-from-behind win and move Oklahoma City one win closer to a trip to the conference finals. His three triples in the final frame were huge, but a late assist on a Jalen Williams three might have been the play that delivered the Thunder the victory. Dort’s double-digit outing marked his third of the series, and Oklahoma City would welcome another as it tries to close out the series on Thursday in Game 6.
Jalen Williams was impressive for the Thunder on Tuesday, posting 18 points (5-of-14 FGs, 6-8 FTs), nine rebounds, four assists, one steal and two three-pointers in the win over the Nuggets.
Williams landed in double figures in scoring for the fifth time in as many games this series. And while he continued to struggle with shooting efficiency, he remained impactful as a facilitator. The fourth-year wing also delivered one of the biggest shots of Game 5 as he sank a corner three-pointer late in the fourth quarter to give Oklahoma City a lead it wouldn’t surrender the rest of the way. Williams will continue to be relied upon when the Thunder head to Denver for a chance to close out the Nuggets in Game 6 on Thursday.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander tallied 31 points (12-of-23 FGs, 6-of-6 FTs), six rebounds, seven assists, two steals, two blocks and one three-pointer in the Thunder’s win over the Nuggets on Tuesday.
Gilgeous-Alexander did it all for the Thunder on Tuesday, taking on the roles of scorer and facilitator while remaining active on the defensive end along the way. Most importantly, he was key in the final handful of blows that Oklahoma City dealt Denver down the stretch in what ended up being a dominant 34-19 fourth quarter for the Thunder. Gilgeous-Alexander, an MVP finalist, delivered his third 30-point game of the series and will have a chance on Thursday to produce his fourth as the Thunder try to eliminate the Nuggets.