NASCAR DFS: Dixie Vodka 400 Track Breakdown

Well this is a bit different, isn’t it? Usually, Homestead-Miami Speedway is the last track on the schedule with the championship race happening there for the last two decades since the track opened. Last year when the 2020 schedule was released, Homestead was slated to be run in the middle of March but has now been shifted to June, which makes the weather and temperature a much bigger topic this week.

This is a 1.5-mile track that is a pure oval, two straightaways without a turn in either one, and 18-20 degrees of banking in the corners depending on how close to the wall the driver gets. This is an old track surface and has been beaten up by the sun meaning that tire wear will again be a factor in the race throughout the day much like it was at Darlington and Atlanta recently and Auto Club earlier this season so guys who can manage their tires and race in multiple grooves are the guys who have been most successful at this track in the past. This track is known for being one of the best 1.5-mile tracks for fair racing and being able to move throughout the field and the same thing happened, to a degree, last year in this package when three different leaders led laps. One caveat to this race however, that we may not be able to judge until the race happens, is what will be the effect of it not being the championship race any more. Typically this is the race that settles the title and thus makes it one where the best drivers spend most of the time up front racing hard for the win, but that’s not at stake here.

The manufacturers have been pretty evenly split here of late with there being two Toyota wins, one Ford, and one Chevy win in the last four races.

Winning percentages from starting positions at Homestead-Miami:

Strategy Notes

Like with most 1.5-mile tracks we are mostly looking for place differential plays to put in our lineups but we will need laps led dominators as well. There are 267 laps in this race equalling the 400 miles of the race distance and they split over three stages of 80 laps, 80 laps, and 107 laps. At similar tracks this year, namely Auto Club, Darlington, and Atlanta, there have been four drivers in each race to lead double-digit laps except for the night race at Darlington in which the laps led were split more evenly. Moving up here has been possible with each of the last five races seeing at least 21 drivers move up in a positive way with a handful moving up double-digit spots. For FD we are looking for guys that can finish high and move up through the field with less emphasis on laps led since they just aren’t scored that highly on the site.

Core Drivers By Tier

Tier 1 - Kevin Harvick

• Harvick has the best average finish here over the last eight races at 4.4 and hasn’t finished outside the top-10.

• He dominated at Atlanta two races ago and had a great car at Martinsville, a track he typically just kind of hangs around at.

• Harvick is also starting P7 which adds a bit of PD to his line as well.

Tier 2 - Clint Bowyer

• Bowyer ran well at Atlanta before a late-race pit for tires dropped him down to P20.

• He also ran well at Darlington leading 71 laps before a late-race pit issue caused problems.

• At Homestead he’s moved up nine spots a race the last four races with three finishes inside the top-15 meaning he should fight for a mid-top-10 finish and provide value Sunday.

Tier 3 - Tyler Reddick

• Reddick was very good at Atlanta two races ago starting in this same starting spot and finishing P16.

• He’s also had great success here in the Xfinity series as he maneuvers around the high line gaining speed.

• Reddick could nab a top-10 finish and this price point amplifies the value he possesses.

Contrarian Play - Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

• Stenhouse has been solid in the last five races this year with a top-five and a P13 at Atlanta

• He moved up from P22 to P13 in that Atlanta race and at the second Darlington race finished P25 after starting P39

• He will start P19 on Sunday and if he produces a top-15 that’s 5x value on DK

Fade - Matt DiBenedetto

• DiBenedetto doesn’t have a very good history here in his last four races run with a sub-2.5x value on DK and just about 5x on FD.

• He’s the most expensive he’s been in the last 10 races (dating back to Vegas) and has only hit 5x value in three of those while going backward in PD seven times.

• Paul Menard who previously drove the 21-car only topped 30 DK points once in the last five races at Homestead.

Last Four Races at Homestead-Miami Speedway

Tier 1

Tier 2

Tier 3

Tier 4

Top-20 Drivers Over Last 8 Races at Homestead

Top-20 Drivers At Similar Races

(Auto Club, Atlanta, Chicagoland, Homestead)

Momentum

The driver and team momentum tables have been made to match the last four and eight race tables with range of finish instead of the prior wins, top-fives, top-10s, and top-15 columns. They will also show those stats for the last five races of this season prior to the current week’s race to show you who’s been hot and who’s been cold.

Drivers

Tier 1

Tier 2

Tier 3

Tier 4

Team

Finish Ranges By Starting Spot Ranges

This table shows where the ranges of starting spots have finished regardless of driver in those spots over the last four Atlanta races. The left-hand column shows the starting spots in groups of five and the columns going across show the finish spots in groups of five up to outside the top-20.

Weekly Rankings

The Race Hist column is based on average finish in the last four races, Recent Form is ranked on average finish of the momentum tables, Track Hist is ranked on of average finish over the last eight races at that track, Type Hist is ranked on the average finish of the similar races table. The DFS columns are ranked on the values provided by those drivers over the last two and five races at this event based on the salaries on each site this week. DK is ranked across all tiers while FD is ranked from best to worst values in each tier to even out the wide range of salaries and narrow point differences.

Tier 1

Tier 2

Tier 3

Tier 4

DFS Value Averages

This replaces the DFS Scoring Averages table that had been here. Instead, we have the DFS Value figures instead. We have taken their points scored over the last two and five races on each site and averaged those out and then divided that average by their salary divided by 1,000. For example, Kevin Harvick’s FD value over the last two races is 4.89 meaning he’s averaged 70.9 FD points the last two races (4.89 x 14.5 (his salary divided by 1,000)=70.9. The Seas. Avg column shows you the value they’ve provided this season based on their average points per race divided by the salary for this week’s race so staying with Harvick, he’s averaging 68.2 points per race which at $14,500 gives him a 4.71x value on average. Keep in mind that it’s not all about value when building a lineup on FD as salary dictates how many points that value equates to.

Tier 1

Tier 2

Tier 3

Tier 4