NASCAR DFS: Coke Zero Sugar 400 Track Breakdown

It’s hard to believe that we are already at the regular-season finale and it’s being run on the originally scheduled weekend. Unlike two weeks ago, this race is being run on the standard Daytona oval with the standard plate track package so expect similar racing to what we’ve seen at Daytona earlier in the year as well as Talladega.

Pack racing is the name of the game this weekend because all of the cars have reduced horsepower so they are on even footing and to reduce speeds heading around the 2.5-mile steeply banked track. However, the downside to pack racing is that if one driver makes a wrong move it could spell the end of the day for numerous other drivers. It’s not uncommon to see a crash here with 12-15 cars involved at one time. That makes the variance of this race way higher than any other standard oval race this season and so for DFS this race are typically considered dart throws for how they are going to turn out, however I will highlight a strategy that will give you a better shot at cashing than just picking drivers willy nilly.

Clearly the history here doesn’t favor one manufacturer over another as they’ve pretty evenly split the race wins over the last 10 showings at Daytona.

There have been 124 points races run on the Daytona 2.5 oval and in that span, 87-percent of winners have come from the top-15 starting spots and 72-percent have reached victory lane by starting in the top-10.

Strategy Notes

The best strategy for DFS this weekend is to pick one to two drivers starting in the top-15 and the rest should be starting outside the first 13 rows. The mid pack is a spot that you want your drivers to avoid at all cost as typically that’s where the big wrecks start and there is basically no way to escape them. In general though this race is still very unpredictable, as we saw at Talladega earlier this year as the big one didn’t happen until the last lap and nearly the whole field was still on the lead lap. This race has a lot riding on it as it’s the last shot to make the playoffs and so if the driver hasn’t clinched a spot yet, there will be more pressure for them to get the win or a great finish this weekend. GPPs are a dart throw this week as are cash games but the strategy above can help cash in double-ups frequently as well as make some profit in GPPs.

Programming Notes

The track breakdown will be done with the tiers being broken down into ranges of 10 drivers instead of by salary tiers simply because salaries don’t typically matter that much this weekend with how rosters are constructed.

Core Drivers By Tier

Drivers 1-10 - Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

• Stenhouse is a phenomenal plate racer and one of only two drivers with two top-fives in the last July Daytona races.

• His eight top-10s in the last 16 plate races is tied for third in the field for most in that span.

• He’s starting P31 and that will make him a very popular play, not to mention that if he wins, he makes the playoffs.

Drivers 11-20 - Brendan Gaughan

• Gaughan has been a great plate racer in recent years with an average finish of 12.7 in the last four July races at Daytona.

• His 152.7 laps completed on average in that span is amongst the best in the field.

• Each of the last three races here he’s finished instead the top-20.

Drivers 21-30 - Bubba Wallace

• Wallace has been a good plate racer with a runner-up at Daytona previously with three top-15s.

• At Talladega he was running very well until the final laps when he nearly ran out of gas and was caught up in the final wreck.

• He also ranks in the top-eight over the last four and eight races at Daytona in terms of average finish.

Contrarian Play - Aric Almirola

• Almirola is starting in the top-five, again, but has a history of running up front in these races.

• He won the fall Talladega race a couple seasons ago and nearly won the Daytona 500 as well.

• In the last 15 plate races, he has six top-fives and 10 top-10s but he may be overlooked starting as highly as he is given the nature of these races.

There is no fade this week

Last Four Coke Zero Sugar 400s

Drivers 1-10

Drivers 11-20

Drivers 21-30

Drivers 31-40

Top-20 Drivers Over Last Eight Daytona Races

Top-20 Drivers Over Last 16 Similar Races

(Daytona and Talladega)

Finishing Spot Ranges By Starting Spot Ranges

This table shows where the ranges of starting spots have finished regardless of driver in those spots over the last four July Daytona races. The left-hand column shows the starting spots in groups of five and the columns going across show the finish spots in groups of five up to outside the top-20.

Weekly Rankings

Race Hist, Track Hist, Type Hist are all ranked on average finish position over the last four races at the track, five races this season, eight races at this track, and similar races respectively. The Avg. Rating and Top-15 % columns are ranked on those categories in the last four races at this track. The L8 PD column ranks the position differential over the last eight races from best (most positive) to worst (most negative).

Drivers 1-10

Drivers 11-20

Drivers 21-30

Drivers 31-40

DFS Value Averages

This replaces the DFS Scoring Averages table that had been here. Instead, we have the DFS Value figures instead. We have taken their points scored over the last two and five races on each site and averaged those out and then divided that average by their salary divided by 1,000.

Drivers 1-10

Drivers 11-20

Drivers 21-30

Drivers 31-40