Toyota/Save Mart 350 NASCAR DFS Playbook: Kyle Larson, Tyler Reddick Battle In Sonoma

Do we have to explain this one? He’s won a few times here and has had the fastest car the last three races at Sonoma. He appears to have that again and simply missed a corner in qualifying which has him starting P15. That makes him a threat to win and pack PD punch as well. That’s what we call a seriously popular option in DFS.

Same with Reddick, do we have to explain this one? He won at COTA, in dominating fashion, he’s also won three of the last five total road races. He’ll start P2 on Sunday and had one of the fastest cars in lap averages in practice. Reddick has been so quick that Hamlin, his team owner, is using his setup here to try and even the playing field. Expect Reddick to be amongst the most popular plays in both formats and a serious threat to win and dominate.

Previously we’ve called Elliott the best road racer in the field. That might not be the case anymore. While he’s still a quality road racer, he’s slipped of late to an average finish of P8 in his last nine such races without a win and hasn’t led as many laps. Elliott is now in a win-to-get-in situation for the playoffs given the injury and suspension he’s had. The 9-car will pull off 10th to start and he showed the speed we’re accustomed to from him as well. Get ready for Elliott to be a real threat once more on Sunday.

Despite all his hemming and hawing at practice about how bad the car was, Busch still managed to qualify it P12 and ran around there in lap averages. So what to make of his issues? Were they genuine or a bit of overselling things given his high standards? I tend to believe it’s the latter rather than the former considering this is the car that Reddick won multiple times in on road courses last year and Busch himself has won thrice in already this year. Busch is always a crafty driver and his crew chief is certainly capable of making adjustments to get him a top-five car. Let’s not forget he’s the winningest crew chief over the last 33 points-paying races in the garage.

It was easy to credit his Sonoma win last year as a one-off strong showing where everything went his way. However, that was until COTA this year when he was also strong before the chaos late got the best of him. The car was iffy on the single-lap run in practice but as they went to work on it, it got better as the session continued ultimately landing him at 10th in overall lap average. He likely gets a boost in folks playing him because of the win last year but he’s still a better fit for GPPs given the P9 starting spot and not a ton of easily seeable upside.

Allmendinger is an interesting one. Despite having all of the open-wheel and road racing bona fides to his name, it’s been a bit of a struggle for him to run consistently well on these tracks in the Cup series. Sure, he has five top-10s in nine races including a win, but three of the other finishes, including COTA, have been P33 or worse. The car looks great this weekend and he’s getting extra track time in the Xfinity Series event but the fact that he’s starting P5 does cap the upside a bit to about a 42-43 point ceiling.

I do have to say that I liked this play a bit more before he qualified P34. If you watched the Grill vs. Grille video on FA’s YouTube Channel you’d see I took him for a Top-10 Finish prop, again before he qualified where he did. At least there was better speed in practice, somewhat. The setup on the car needs work and he’ll need his fair share of breaks to move up well, but we did see him start P25 last year and finish P5 when everyone else seemingly couldn’t pass. He has far too much experience on road layouts to be overlooked this week in either format, even at this price.

Apparently burrowing his driver’s setup, I’m talking about Reddick, helped him out since he out-qualified him with it. Does that P1 starting spot help him dominate the race? That’s tougher to see given the practice speed wasn’t quite as good and the long-run speed hasn’t been great for Hamlin in the last 10 road races either. I can see Hamlin leading the first handful of laps before Reddick finds a way past him. That might cap his upside and really relegates him to GPPs as there’s just not enough upside or consistency here to justify a cash game play for Hamlin.

Remember when Truex was a lock-and-load road course play? We’re getting closer to that. While he only had the fifth-best five-lap average in practice, he had the best overall lap average over his nine laps run. Truex also had the second-best single-lap speed behind only Larson, though by about half a second. Starting P8 gives him some PD upside for a top-five finish and gives him a small shot at the win as well. Keep in mind that three of his four road course wins have come at Sonoma and he knows how to save tires for late in the runs.

Eight top-15s in the last 10 road course races and an average PD of nearly six, shows the consistency we’ve come to expect from Harvick. The practice speeds weren’t great to be honest but the counterpoint to that is in most of his previous road races, neither were his starting spots. He’s only started better than P18 twice in the last 10 races but has finished P14 or better all but twice. Can he match that again this week? I think the answer is yes.

He nabbed a runner-up here a year ago but that’s just the tip of the iceberg for his ability on road courses. If we look at the last 10 road races, Buescher has posted the fourth-best average finish (9.4) and has the second-most top-10s (7) in the field. Impressive right? The Fords which struggle elsewhere, don’t struggle on road courses so we don’t have to downgrade them for aero issues.

Some of the luster has fallen off Gibbs over the last few races as he’s spent more time going backward than moving up through a field. However, if we go back prior to that, he had a good run at COTA and had a run of top-10 finishes. In his four road races in the Cup Series, he’s finished top-10 once and top-20 twice in total. He’s also getting more seat time in the Xfinity race on Saturday evening which can only help him for Sunday’s race with the flow of a lap. Gibbs is a  GPP play with a shot for a solid top-10 finish.

By now we should know his road racing bona fides. McDowell finished P3 here a year ago and that started a run of four-straight top-10 finishes for him and then he got back in the swing of things with a P12 at COTA. The only downside to McDowell this week, and it’s a big one, is that he’s starting P3. Why is that a downside? That was likely his ceiling for finishing position which means there’s basically no upside to his play except in GPPs if he can hold this spot.

Haley showed P6 single-lap practice speeds and the 10th-best overall lap average, though he didn’t run five-consecutive laps in practice. That was before qualifying P23. So can he replicate his practice run? Doubtful. Can he move up from his starting spot? Absolutely. Haley has basically the same setup as Allmendinger and he’s certainly picking up tips and tricks from his teammate too. PD upside is strong here and the price tag is low.

This is simply based on the eye test this weekend. The 3-car looks good on track and stable. He does have six top-20 finishes in the last 10 road races. This one isn’t for the faint of heart though as he’ll undoubtedly make a mistake somewhere that leaves us questioning. However, if he can keep it clean, unlike last week, there could be value here below the mid-tier we’re used to seeing him in.

This is a surprising one to put in a road course playbook but sometimes the odd ones win you money. He showed solid speed at practice and then qualified P13. The last time there was road course race, COTA, he nabbed a top-10 finish, his lone such finish in the last 10 road races. Granted, that was a bit due to attrition, but he still ran a clean race, again odd for Stenhouse. This is a GPP-only, low-ownership option but if he holds his starting spot, he hits value.

He’s back. He’s also in the 38-car again this weekend. That’s good as we’ve seen that car not really care who’s driving it as it has speed. Smith ran it well in the 600 and this car nabbed a top-10 at COTA earlier in the year. Smith has been a great road racer in the Truck Series and given the speed in the 38-Front Row car, he should have that ability on display again on Sunday. I even wrote up a +900 Top-10 Finish bet on Smith in my weekly NASCAR betting piece for Pickswise.

Back down to where we’ve gotten used to seeing Lajoie in the price range department. His trial in the 9-car didn’t go great last week but now we’re at a road course and he’s been pretty good when right turns are involved. Lajoie has four top-20s in the last 10 road races and the last two are P12 and P11 at COTA this year. There’s a bit of a risk here that the lack of stage breaks keeps him further back but it’s a risk we can take at this price tag and given his P11 at COTA.

Okay Matt, have you lost your damn mind? I mean really, Bilicki? In a playbook? This isn’t Daytona or ‘Dega you know, right? Yes, but hear me (or read me) out. He’s literally as cheap as it gets on both sites, and for good reason, except on road courses. Pulled out a P26 finish at COTA, which gave him seven spots of PD and he has three top-22 finishes in his last eight road races. Bilicki has averaged six spots of PD in his last eight races as well. He’s really only an option to try and get one more high-priced driver into your lineup and there is a risk that he simply doesn’t do anything in the race.