Sci Aps 200 DFS Picks & NASCAR Playbook - New Hampshire Motor Speedway, 6/22

The NASCAR Cup and Xfinity Series head to New England this weekend for more short track action at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. We’re coming off a very successful return to Iowa Speedway that saw Sam Mayer claim his second win of the season. We have 11 races left in the Xfinity Series regular season so the chances to lock yourself into a playoff spot are running thin. It gets more difficult this week with Christopher Bell and Alex Bowman competing in this race. But we have plenty of data and comparable tracks to look at for this race and we should be able to construct some structurally sound NASCAR DFS lineups. Let’s take a look at the drivers and lineup building strategies for Saturday’s Sci Aps 200 with updates to come following qualifying!

Sci Aps 200 NASCAR DFS Lineup Picks

New Hampshire Motor Speedway is a one-mile oval with very little banking. For what it’s worth, this qualifies as a short, flat track so we can draw some comparisons to Phoenix, Richmond, a little bit of Martinsville, and Iowa where NASCAR just visited last week.

With 200 laps on tap for this race, it’s certainly going to be popular to cram in two dominators and hope you get the right drivers to score well. There is one driver (Christopher Bell) priced far above the rest of the field. One strategy you can take with that particular driver is to build solo-dominator builds with the narrative in mind that he dominates and wins the race. That allows you to allocate your budget towards other drivers that can move up and score well, rather than trying to fit a secondary dominator in your build.

The beauty of this track is that we should see plenty of drivers move up. Last year’s race saw three drivers start T20 or deeper and finish in the top 10 while three others that started outside the top 20 finished inside the top 15. 2022 was similar with seven drivers finishing in the top 15 that started outside the top 20. Both races did see at least nine cautions. The good news is that we expect chaos from this field and should expect these drivers to provide for some extra cautions. 

Naturally, with NASCAR coming to town we have some weather concerns this weekend. We have about a 30-40% chance of rain during the day on Friday which is when practice and qualifying are supposed to be run. It doesn’t get much better on Saturday with a 70-80% chance of rain and the wet weather continues into Sunday and Monday. So we will adapt and be prepared for delays, but I am optimistic they can get qualifying in on Friday.

I will have full updates and the driver pool at the bottom of the article once we know the starting order and this Playbook will be fully updated Saturday morning for this race.

Update: So they were only able to run a few laps in practice and then qualifying was rained out. We're kind of guessing as to who shows up with the right setup without having seen much from the cars and drivers.

Top Price Core Plays

Christopher Bell ($13,500)

He’s pricey, but there’s a very good reason for it. Last weekend at Iowa, his success and dominance on that particular track were well documented for those playing the Cup Series slate on Sunday. We’re now heading to a track that once again caters to his strengths and he’s crushed it here before.

In 2018, 2019, and 2021 he won each New Hampshire race in the Xfinity Series. He’s three-for-three and he led 90+ laps in all three dominating wins. And in 2022, he won the Cup Series’ first race at New Hampshire in the NextGen car.

He’s in the 20-car for Joe Gibbs Racing on Saturday, which is fitting because he’ll also be in the 20-car on Sunday so this shouldn’t impact his mentality when looking for his pit box. Additionally, John Hunter Nemechek (Vegas), Aric Almirola (Martinsville), and Ryan Truex (Dover) have all driven this car to a win so far this year.

Update: With practice and qualifying rained out, he starts outside the top 20 and likely carries massive exposure. Still playable in cash games and tournaments for the win equity. I will also note that if you can squeeze him into two-dominator builds, that is outstanding. Considering he starts outside the top 20 he would need an abundance of cautions to get to the lead in stage one.

Chandler Smith ($11,000)

For the same reasons we liked Smith like week, we can go right back to the well this weekend. It’s a short, flat track. Smith has excelled on this type of track in his brief tenure in the Xfinity Series and he drives for a team that specifically thrives on this type of track.

He may have finished eighth last week but he collected over 40 dominator points and did just fine returning value at his hefty price tag. This week could play out similarly and it’ll be difficult to squeeze both Bell and Smith in so you likely have to commit to one or the other.

He started on the pole in this race last year with Kaulig Racing and finished second with almost nine dominator points. With a better car in 2024, there’s similar upside to what he did last week.

Update: He starts on the front row alongside Cole Custer and both are perfectly fine to play and you can even play around with both of them in some lineups.

Justin Allgaier ($10,700)

It’s never fun, nor bold, to just preview the three most expensive drivers. But it’s easy to see why these three are everyone’s favorite ahead of practice and qualifying. Once we know the starting order, we can highlight a few more drivers.

He had a disappointing run last week at Iowa. He did lead 14 laps but was caught in an accident in stage three.

Fortunately for Allgaier, we are heading to one of his better tracks. He won this race two years ago, and while he may not have the excessive dominator upside of either Bell or Smith, he’s still in one of the better rides and has a history of running well here.

He’s led at least 25 laps in each of the last two NHMS races for the Xfinity Series and could once again get out front on Saturday, with (hopefully) better fortune than last week.

Alex Bowman ($10,500)

Bowman starts outside the top 30 and will be plenty popular. You can save $3,000 and get more PD pivoting off Bell for Bowman but Bell likely has much more upside given what we've seen from him at this track.

Mid-Price Core Plays

Sammy Smith ($9,200)

We were on him last week and we’re back on him for this week’s race. We do see a $700 bump in the price tag but we are potentially looking at another 50+ point performance on DraftKings.

Last week he benefited from starting P17 and just needed to finish top five to hit the optimal lineup. He ended up finishing fourth at Iowa and had 10 fastest laps without leading a single one.

We don’t preview Sammy Smith a lot, but we do know that he’s better on the shorter, flat tracks and this week is no different. And he has a ton of momentum on his side with three finishes in the top four in the last four races.

He ran with Joe Gibbs Racing in this race a year ago. He started P7 and finished fifth with 11.7 dominator points. 

Carson Kvapil ($8,800)

Kvapil is priced at $8,800 and is in the 88-car for Jr. Motorsports so this seems appropriate. He’s run three races this year with JRM and has shown immense upside. He didn’t have a great run at Darlington, but that track doesn’t compare too well to New Hampshire,

Instead, let’s focus on what he did at Dover and Martinsville. Kvapil nearly won the race at Dover, but ultimately finished second with 14 laps led. Then at Martinsville he started P12 and finished fourth.

He’s still very young and the price tag is a bit high. But he is giving serious “Sammy Smith” vibes from last week at Iowa as this does project to be a track he should do well at.

Update: Starts incredibly deep in the field and crushes value with a top 15 finish. He certainly has the equipment to get himself there.

Jesse Love ($8,700)

I really like Jesse Love starting P15. He's had speed in the car all year and has improved as a driver. He starts P15 and certainly has top 10 potential. But with ownership flocking to Kvapil, Bowman, Bonsignore, or evern Jones… We may not see Love get a ton of attention.

Justin Bonsignore ($8,000)

It’s always fun to preview a new name in a NASCAR DFS Playbook! Bonsignore gets the amazing benefit of driving in a Joe Gibbs Racing car for his Xfinity Series debut so this is a great price tag when you consider the equipment.

Bonsignore comes from a short, flat track background and he’s a three-time champion in the NASCAR Whelen Modified Tour from 2018, 2020, and 2021. He’s won at New Hampshire twice in the Modified Tour with a handful of other top five finishes so he does know his way around this short track.

Does he have much of a chance to win? I doubt it, especially since there are drivers with Cup Series experience in the field. But yet he doesn’t really need to do too much to exceed value at this price tag.

Update: Starting P25. Very much in play for a JGR driver in great equipment.

Brandon Jones ($7,800)

This guy sucks, but at a certain point he has to break out of this streak of bad finishes. He's finished outside the top 35 in each of the last three races. At a certain point, the law of averages owes him one and he once again starts deep in the field. Tread very carefully with this play though. He has to start showing Jr. Motorsports he deserves the 9-car.

Value Price Core Plays

Matt DiBenedetto ($7,000)

Matty D may secretly have some upside here and I hope RSS Racing can deliver a good ride for him. He’s on a pretty quiet run over the last two weeks having gained 15+ spots in back-to-back races.

The best part is that the price tag hasn’t budged and he’s easily hit 35+ fantasy points in each of the last two races. What really sticks out is that last week he started P24 at Iowa and finished seventh to return 54 fantasy points on DraftKings.

New Hampshire may also be a sneaky good track for him. In his latter years in the NASCAR Cup Series, he finished 5th (2019), 6th (2020), and 11th (2021) with Leavine Family Racing and Wood Brothers Racing at NHMS. Now those are/were decent teams but they benefited from having affiliations with better organizations.

So there is some upside on a track like this especially after what we saw last week on a comparable track at Iowa. If he has another good run, I wouldn’t anticipate another $7,000 price tag next week.

Update: Unfortunately, we downgrade Matty D considering he is now starting P10. He's viable if making 20+ lineups so long as you understanding he most likely goes backward. Shane van Gisbergen ($6,900) might be the pivot for more PD.

Parker Retzlaff ($6,700)

With a lot of the value plays starting in good spots because of last week's results and qualifying being rained out, we can go back to Retzlaff who starts P24 and still has a background that suits this track.

Josh Williams ($6,500)

I’ll try and be quick with Williams because the narrative is the same as always. He tends to qualify poorly, but he does a good enough job moving up and potentially scoring a top 20, similar to what he did last week at Iowa.

It also doesn’t hurt that New Hampshire has been a good track for him in the past. Last year with DGM Racing he started P22 and finished eighth. I wouldn’t expect that performance from him on Saturday but would we be surprised if he started outside the top 25 and finished in the top 15?

We can’t forget the top 12 runs he had earlier in the year at Richmond and Martinsville so we can once again assume Williams is a good play, while offering a decent floor.

Jeremy Clements ($5,800)

This does seem like a dangerously low price for Clements this week. I know the tracks do not compare at all but to kick off the season at Daytona he was $1,500 more expensive. 

Has it been a banner year for Clements? Not one bit, but this is still a driver with a pair of wins in the Xfinity Series throughout his career. Moreover, the results at New Hampshire have been strong as well. 

Clements has raced here a dozen times in his career and has an average finishing position of 16.6 but he’s finished top 15 at New Hampshire in the last four races at this track.

Now we do have to account for the performances this year because there haven’t been too many to write home about. But at the end of the day, we’ve seen numerous top 15’s from him on this track and you can’t say that about too many drivers priced under $6,000.

Update: I'm okay with both Williams and Clements for Tournaments. But it's hard to love either for cash games. They will start next to each other in Row 9. Clements may come in with less than 10% ownership and another top 15 finish here will likely be enough to pay off the price tag. I'm likely going to have him in four lineups at the most.

Sci Aps 200 NASCAR DFS Driver Pool