NASCAR DFS Playbook XPEL 225: Ross Chastain Earns The Pole At COTA

Now that Atlanta Motor Speedway is in the rearview, we turn our attention to Circuit of the Americas, also known as COTA, and this weekend marks the first road course of the season for the Craftsman Truck Series and NASCAR’s Xfinity and Cup Series as well. Don’t be too surprised that we see a handful of Cup drivers on the entry lists for the Truck and Xfinity Series races. This marks the third year that NASCAR has gone to COTA and two years ago the racing for the Xfinity and Cup races was a wash (quite literally) with how much rain we saw that weekend. We’ll also see some teams try to get some road course ringers in this race and we’ll be sure to touch on them as well. But we do have practice and qualifying from Friday afternoon to dissect so let’s dig in to the top NASCAR DFS plays for Saturday’s XPEL 225.

If there’s one track where dominator points mean very little, it’s COTA. For the Truck Series we likely won’t find a track on the schedule where they will run less laps. Last year’s race saw just 46 (including overtime) and the year before we saw just 41. That’s because COTA is a 3.41-mile track with 20 turns that is specifically designed for F1, but NASCAR has graced Austin, Texas with its presence the last couple years. Because of the lack of laps, we don’t need to have an emphasis on dominator points in Cash games. However, that’s not to say you have to fade the polesitter in Cash games. If you have a great road ringer on the pole and you think they can win the race, by all means keep them in. In August 2019 at Watkins Glen, I played Chase Elliott in my Cash lineup and he started from the pole, led 80 laps, and won the race. Position differential carries a little more weight this weekend because we obviously want guys that can move up through the field and finish well, but keep in mind in last year’s Truck race at COTA, the top ten was made up of drivers that started P16 or better, and of the drivers that finished in the top 20, only three started outside the top 20 and only one started outside the top 30. So when targeting PD, my advice is this: take the PD when it’s given to you. That’s to say if a driver we trust has a poor qualifying effort and starts far back, then we can eat the chalk and play them. We can’t target back markers at these races and expect them to gain 10-15 spots of position differential because that likely only happens with a lot of variance.

To add another wrinkle into our strategies, we will not have cautions at the stage breaks. So we won’t see drivers pitting for track position/strategy before the end of each stage, nor will we see certain drivers stay out for stage points. Everyone will be racing with the intention of moving up while some drivers might pit off sequence to gain a strategical edge for later in the race. But with no cautions at the end of each stage, if we see longer green flag runs we could run see some boring races if the leader runs away with clean air.

XPEL 225 Practice Notes

NASCAR DFS Driver Pool

Kyle Busch ($13,000; Starting P2)

Anytime Kyle Busch is in the Truck or Xfinity Series he’ll get a Playbook acknowledgment no matter what. He’s just lightyears ahead of everybody at this level. Busch led 31 laps with seven fastest laps in this race a year ago. We don’t typically see Busch run too many road courses for the Truck Series, but as we saw last year it doesn’t matter, he’ll be in contention. Last year, Busch was in the lead on the second-to-last lap but as they ascended COTA’s legendary hill on the front stretch going into turn one, Stewart Friesen and Alex Bowman dove inside as Busch went wide. All three had contact and Zane Smith snuck to the lead. Busch clawed his way to a third-place finish and it was still an impressive day. Busch is the most expensive driver in the field but don’t analyze the price tag and think of what he needs to do to get to 5X value. The overall scores will be very low for this race and Busch won’t deliver as many points as he normally does, but there’s still win equity and plenty of points to be had if he gets to the front. The price tag might turn some people off especially without stage breaks (which may actually play to the advantage of better teams), but if he wins this race with some dominator points he’s likely in the optimal lineup for this race and you have to re-think how you view value for this race. Will it be difficult for him to hit 5X value? Absolutely. But if he can go out and get 50-60 points and you have five other drivers that can (hopefully) get you around 35-40 points or so then you’re in great shape.

Zane Smith ($10,600; Starting P7)

Smith won this race last year and grabbed a top ten in the 2021 race. Truth be told, Smith was phenomenal on road courses a year ago. In addition to his COTA win in 2022, he finished second at both Sonoma and Mid-Ohio. It was a pretty impressive improvement from his previous results on road courses and something needs to be said about this 38-truck at COTA because Todd Gilliland took this ride to victory lane in 2021. Let’s see if the 38-truck can get to victory lane once again at COTA.

Ross Chastain ($10,200; Starting P1)

It’s not common that we recommend the front row at a road course, but both get mentioned because of the win equity and both were just so much faster than the field in practice and qualifying. These two could put on one hell of a show battling for the lead, but that may not happen until the final stage assuming they’re both still in front. Chastain won this race in the Cup Series a year ago and can pay off this price tag with a win and some dominator points. It’s likely impossible to play both Busch and Chastain in the same lineup so in Tournament lineups I’d commit to one or the other. If building 20 lineups you’ll want one of either Chastain or Busch in probably 16 of them and then get a little weird in the other four.

Carson Hocevar ($9,800; Starting P6)

Hocevar is still chasing his first win and he’s had plenty of opportunities but has fallen short. This weekend will likely be no different. Given that talent in this field, it’s hard to see him winning, but that’s not to say he can’t grab a top five finish. He’s finished 7^th and 8^th in the two Truck Series races at COTA while also finishing 6^th and 3^rd at Sonoma and Mid-Ohio respectively. He’s surprisingly consistent on road courses and perhaps the new rules about no stage breaks could help his team prioritize a win rather than stage points. The starting spot is tough to swallow so it’s best just to play him in Tournaments this weekend.

Parker Kligerman ($9,500; Starting P17)

Kligerman returns to the 75-truck for Henderson Motorsports last year and this is everyone’s favorite small truck team. Kligerman finished in the top ten in the first two stages last year and with two laps to go he actually worked his way up to fourth, but on the final lap (I think) he may have been spun fighting for position and he ended up finishing 19^th. But he bounced back in a big way with a win at Mid-Ohio last year and it was pretty awesome to see Kligerman take this small team to victory lane. He’s a great play with top five upside this weekend. Update: It sounds like Kligerman had to swap engines after his qualifying run and he'll start from the rear while being scored from P17.

Stewart Friesen ($9,300; Starting P15)

I didn’t want to overload the Playbook with so many top-end drivers, but given how qualifying shook out, this is the hand we’ve been dealt. Friesen’s finish of ninth in last year’s race doesn’t quite do him justice. It was a fairly loaded field and he was regularly running in the top five, but lost a few spots late. This time around we have plenty of PD and he has the ability to move up and finish inside the top eight. He wrecked at Sonoma last year but finished fourth at Mid-Ohio. You probably need him to finish eighth or better with a couple fastest laps to be optimal. He should gain some PD, but I might prefer the next driver just a little bit more in Tournaments.

Ben Rhodes ($9,100; Starting P13)

Rhodes is shaping up to be one of my favorite Tournament plays on Saturday’s slate. He starts P13 which gives us some positional differential to target and there’s a little win equity here too. Oddly enough, Rhodes started P13 in this race a year ago and finished fourth for 49 points on DraftKings. Rhodes isn’t the greatest road course driver, but he does have a win at Daytona’s Road Course from a couple years ago and we know the equipment should hold up. Wouldn’t surprise me one bit if he finished in the top five and was in the optimal lineup. He’s fine for Cash games, but I prefer the upside in Tournaments.

Kaz Grala ($8,300; Starting P10)

Grala is a noted road course specialist and has been brought on to run road courses many times the last few years. He’s full-time in the Xfinity Series now, but will get in the 1-truck for TRICON this weekend. In 2021, he ran three road courses for Young’s Motorsports, which is not a very good team. However, he finished second in that year’s race at COTA while also finishing 8^th at Daytona’s Road Course, and 12^th at Watkins Glen. Last year he had some modest runs at COTA and Sonoma where he finished 14^th in both races, but he did grab a top ten at Mid-Ohio with Young’s Motorsports. This year, he’s getting an equipment upgrade with TRICON and I do think there’s a little win equity with this play, so I love the play in Tournaments.

Matt DiBenedetto ($7,800; Starting P28)

I’m very interested in what Matty D can do this weekend. He started P36 in this race a year ago and finished SIXTH in the first stage. And I get it, there were some cautions in last year’s race that allowed the field to reset and he improved his position. But overall, still impressive because he held his position in stage two going against the likes of Zane Smith, John Hunter Nemechek, Kyle Busch, Alex Bowman, etc. Unfortunately, he had a gear issue on lap 32 of the race and he finished outside the top 30. And that is the risk you take when playing him because he can certainly wheel this truck to a good finish, but the equipment isn’t as reliable as some other teams. He’d bounce back later in the season with a top ten at Sonoma and given where he’s starting, he’s lined up for both Cash games and Tournaments.

Chase Purdy ($7,700; Starting P21)

The move to HRE last year really allowed Purdy to shine. Maybe it was a reality check, but for a mid-level team he was solid on road courses with finishes of 16^th, 15^th, and 13^th at COTA, Sonoma, and Mid-Ohio respectively. Now he’s on Kyle Busch’s team which delivers a significant upgrade in equipment. He’s playable in all formats.

Matt Crafton ($7,500; Starting P34)

What an absurd price tag for Crafton. This is a former champion in this series and he’s in the $7K range? Not to mention he’s starting so far back that he’s an easy lock in Cash games and honestly, I’m tempted to go 100% exposure in my 20 Happy Hour entries. Road courses aren’t really Crafton’s specialty, but at the same time he’s so cheap and starts far enough back that he won’t kill you. Last year at Cota he started P20 and finished 13^th at COTA and he grabbed another top 20 at Mid-Ohio. He’s easily paying off this price tag with a top 20 which is well within reach for a veteran like Crafton, and a top 15 is more than reasonable.

Jake Garcia ($6,700; Starting P32)

Garcia was huge for us a few weeks back at Vegas where I woke up to screenshots from a lot of you. He’s a smart play on paper this week, but also one that I may be underweight on. He’s okay for Cash games but this could be a trap. I’ll still get exposure in some Tournament builds but I think casual players look at his top 20 finishes and think that’s the norm. I know it sounds like I’m full fading him, but I’ll get 20% exposure max in the Happy Hour and call it a day. The PD is certainly there, but the lack of resets at the end of each stage probably limits this young driver’s upside and this is a loaded field with plenty of talent. I think he may only be optimal if we see a lot of chaos.

Colby Howard ($6,600; Starting P27)

Howard’s had a decent start to the year with CR7 Motorsports given his finishes at Daytona and Vegas. Howard had some nice runs a year ago with McAnally-Hilgemann Racing where he finished 9^th at Mid-Ohio and 19^th at Sonoma. He’s not exactly a road course ringer, but he’s also in a position where if he finished 22^nd we wouldn’t complain about it either. Again, this isn’t a driver to load up on for Tournaments, but he’s a guy we can play to differentiate our builds.

Daniel Dye ($6,400; Starting P36)

Dye will see elevated ownership in all formats this weekend simply because he can’t get you negative points and he’s in really good equipment for GMS. Dye has two top 20 finishes and he should be priced in the $7K range. This week he’s too good of a value to pass up knowing he can’t kill our lineups, he can only improve them. He’ll be in my Cash lineup for Saturday’s slate. If he can simply just survive the race and log a top 25 finish, we’ll take it. Now his truck did require some repairs and didn’t qualify, hence the last place starting spot. But this is too good of a team to go out and completely take a dump in its pants and we really don’t need too much from Dye.

Dean Thompson ($6,100; Starting P22)

It’s a good Tournament spot for Thompson who starts just outside the top 20, but he’s in great equipment. Thompson hasn’t done too much in his start with TRICON but in his defense two of the first three races have been drafting tracks and he didn’t finish well. He wasn’t great on road courses last year in lesser equipment, but this is a tournament-only play that can move up into the top 17 and if there’s chaos he could be optimal with a top 15 finish. Not a Cash game play, but viable in GPP’s.

Timmy Hill ($5,800; Starting P29)

Hill presents himself as one of the more reliable options in the field for Saturday afternoon’s race. He is okay in Cash games, but I don’t think we need to go down here in that format. But he is the cheapest I’d go in Cash games if necessary. With no stage breaks it’s going to be more of a challenge to find good value. Hill might be the most reliable of the drivers in this range but he’s no guarantee. Hill has finished 22^nd and 24^th in his two races at COTA and you probably need a similar result from Hill on Saturday. 

NASCAR DFS Core Plays

Related Links:

• NASCAR DFS Playbook: Pit Boss 250