The 2022 NASCAR season turns its attention to the World Center of Racing this weekend, with both the NASCAR Cup and Xfinity Series set for some pack racing around Daytona International Speedway! These races breed chaos and can be frustrating for DFS purposes. But what is special about these tracks is that we see absolute longshots with a legitimate shot at winning. With just a handful of races left in the regular for the Xfinity Series, Daytona presents an opportunity for smaller teams to win their way into the Round of 12 for the playoffs. Let’s dive into the NASCAR DFS strategies and drivers ahead of Friday afternoon’s qualifying session.

Daytona is an absolute beast of a track. It’s 2.5 miles in length with high banking. If you’re new to NASCAR DFS this isn’t a great track to play for the first time. More than any other track type, luck plays a huge role in the optimal lineup. Not only can you leave money on the table in terms of salary, but it’s often encouraged. It gives you an edge in terms of how unique your lineup is. A very popular strategy in Cash games will be to stack drivers starting outside the top 30 and leaving over $20,000 of salary left on the table.

We don’t get practice this week because it’s a superspeedway and teams don’t want to run the risk of wrecking. Additionally, we only have 100 laps for Friday’s race. That gives us about 70 dominator points to work with and assuming that we see multiple caution, dominator points become less viable as we lose fastest laps due to yellow flag laps. Another note on fastest laps, they tend to be distributed evenly among the field throughout the race. Just because you run up front and have clean air doesn’t mean anything. This race is about nailing six drivers that can finish in the top 12 and having the winner in your build. A lot of luck plays a role and having enough drivers avoid “the big one” will be key to finding your way into the green this weekend. Because of the variance with Daytona and Talladega, I can’t recommend enough that you should be patient and disciplined with your bankroll. I’m not spending more than $30 on each series and for this Xfinity race, I’m only doing three lineups and playing about $15. I’m more than happy admitting this isn’t my favorite race for DFS. It’s better to chase some longer betting odds on drivers to win outright or grab a top ten. But let’s dive in to some DFS targets for Friday night’s Wawa 250 Powered By Coca-Cola!

Updates will be posted in RED following qualifying Friday afternoon and I’ll be in the Discord channel answering questions up until about 7:00pm. Right now the Playbook is lighter than usual just because we don’t know the starting order yet but there will be new drivers added later this afternoon. We do have weather concerns Friday as there is rain in the forecast most of the afternoon and into the evening. Given the size of this track it could take up to three hours to dry so it’s possible they move the race to Saturday afternoon. But we’ll see how everything shakes out leading up to the race.

UPDATE: So qualifying was cancelled due to constant rain in Florida Friday afternoon. Truthfully, the forecast is still very ugly and it's looking like rain for most of the day into the evening. It'll still take about three hours to dry the track. Daytona does have lights so there hasn't been any traction yet about re-schedule to tomorrow. However, we have no practice or qualifying for a plate race so the starting order is determined by the rulebook's scoring.

Driver Pool

Justin Haley ($10,600) I’m curious how Justin Haley ended up as the most expensive driver. When DK’s Sportsbook opened earlier in the week, Haley was 20-1 to win straight up and there was so much action on it from every NASCAR DFS tout (and some of us in the NASCAR DFS Discord Channel) that the line quickly moved to 8-1, making Haley the favorite. And as pricing was released on Wednesday, he’s now the most expensive driver. Fortunately, pricing is irrelevant this week so you should be able to fit him in your builds with ease. In five races at Talladega in Xfinity, he’s never finished worse than eighth and that includes a pair of wins in 2020. He also boasts a pair of wins at Daytona in this Series and he won the Summer Cup Series race at Daytona three years ago. Pretty easy play from strictly a resume standpoint. Update: Starting dead last. Lock & Load in Cash games and he's fine for GPP's as well. Honestly, if you go underweight, that's an incredible amount of leverage you'll have on the field.

AJ Allmendinger ($10,200) Kaulig Racing is in play Friday night. They work well in the drafting conditions and they have very solid resumes on this style of track. And that goes for Allmendinger as well. We’re far from the likes of a road course Friday night, but Dinger has finished top five at Daytona in his last three Xfinity races, and that includes back-to-back runner-up finishes. He was also third at Atlanta-1 earlier this year, third at Talladega, and tenth at Atlanta-2. You can easily make Kaulig stacks work Friday night, but I wouldn’t load up on all of them in the same lineup. Update: Dinger is on the pole. Still has win equity, but not the greatest play for DFS unless he leads 30+ laps and wins.

Austin Hill ($10,000) We’re looking at what is likely to be a popular option for Friday’s race. Hill won this race back in February after starting on the pole and he led 23 laps. He finished second at the first Atlanta race and led 27 laps, and then went on to win the second Atlanta race where he led 73 laps. Even though he wrecked at Talladega, he led 67 laps. He’s somehow doing the unthinkable by “dominating” portions of these drafting races. There’s clear win equity here knowing he can start up front and still get the win. You should try and account for the “chalky” aspect of playing Hill in GPP’s. Update: Hill is rolling off P14. Perfectly in play for a GPP takedown especially if he wins.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($9,600) Stenhouse is a noted plate racer in the Cup Series and he’ll be in the 48-car for Big Machine Racing Friday night. His success on superspeedways the last couple years hasn’t been great, but he has won at both Daytona and Talladega at the most elite level of stock car racing. I do still have my concerns regarding his ability to navigate through this field, that overall lacks experience and tends to wreck even on the more tame tracks. But Stenhouse’s presence is worth noting for Friday’s race. Update: Starting P17. Will be a bit chalky so be mindful of your exposure.

Noah Gragson ($9,400) He’s won at both Daytona and Talladega in the Xfinity Series and overall, as long as he avoids the carnage he tends to finish well. In seven races at Daytona he has five finishes in the top 15 including a third and a seventh in the last two years alone. At Dega he has six finishes in the top 11 including a win this past April. The only times he’s finished poorly are when he’s been caught up in a wreck. Update: On the front row with Allmendinger so use your best judgment. I'm likely going underweight. John Hunter Nemechek ($9,800; Starting P19) is likely the preferred pivot in this range if you can afford him.

Justin Allgaier ($9,200; Starting P15) The price on Allgaier is great and the starting spot puts him in play for DFS especially as a driver with win equity. He has plenty of experience on this style of track. He's raced here over 20 times and while he's never won he's finished second a couple times and he has back-to-back top five finishes here. It is worth mentioning he's wrecked in six of his last 11 Daytona races though. 

Landon Cassill ($8,100) Cassill is a bit of an unheralded gem at superspeedways. Just this year alone with Kaulig Racing he finished 14th at Daytona-1, fifth at Atlanta-1, fifth at Talladega, and eighth at Atlanta-2. Historically, he’s had more success at Talladega, but he’s posting career-best numbers in this car for Kaulig. Does that mean he’s safe from carnage? No, but Kaulig as a team has had success on superspeedways the last few seasons and should work together during Friday’s race to be at the front in stage three. Update: Don't love that he's starting tenth, but there's still a path where he finishes top five and is optimal in a GPP. Wouldn't go here in Cash games.

Daniel ($8,400; Starting P16) I didn't love the outlook prior to qualifying, but he's okay from this start if I'm going to give similar love to Hill, Allgaier, Stenhouse, etc.) Works in Kaulig stacks too, if you target Allmendinger and Haley.

Sheldon Creed ($7,900) I don’t love to dwell on recent performance heading into a superspeedway race, but Creed has really been finding his form recently. In five of his last six races he’s finished 12th or better. His teammate, Austin Hill (who we’ve discussed already), won Daytona back in February and he won the second Atlanta race in July. So the RCR cars can work together well on this style of track. Creed finished sixth at Daytona earlier this year, and was top 12 in both Atlanta races. Creed also finished top 12 in five of six superspeedway races in the Truck Series. Update: Same outlook at Cassill. Wouldn't play either together, but Creed has momentum. Deep-field GPP-only play. I likely won't play him very much.

Myatt Snider ($7,300) The fun thing about Myatt Snider is that he will either wreck or finish in the top ten. In five races at Daytona he has a pair of top tens, but he’s also been in a pair of wrecks where he finished outside the top 20. In five races at Talladega he’s wrecked three times but finished top ten in the other two races. He screams of just a GPP play because of the variance and can be played regardless of where he qualifies in that particular format. Update: Starting outside the top 20. I still wouldn't trust him for Cash games, but he could be optimal with a top ten, which we've seen him do on this style of track.

Jeb Burton ($7,000) Burton has had some of the worst luck over the last five races. He’s wrecked in three of them and finishes outside the top 20 in all of them. At a certain point, he might be making some of this luck. But his superspeedway credentials check out. He finished in the top 15 in both Atlanta races this year, but also finished 15th at Talladega, where he has a win from his time with Kaulig and a pair of additional top ten finishes. He also claimed a pair of top five finishes at Daytona in 2021. He’s still risky, as is everybody, but there’s upside here if he stays clean and given his recent bad luck, there might be leverage here for a driver who has a pretty high ceiling. Update: Starting P29. Good play.

Brandon Brown ($6,900) Brown is back in his own 68-car this weekend, but not like it matters, the equipment is level across the playing field this weekend. But either way, he’s flashed upside on superspeedways before. He’s finished in the top ten in four of his last six races at Daytona and he has five finishes in the top 15 at Talladega including his first career win last Fall. Update: There might be safer options starting further back, but there's upside here as we've seen previously from him on this style of track.

Anthony Alfredo ($6,600) Nothing fancy about Alfredo, other than he’s a decent superspeedway racer. In five races between Talladega and Daytona he has four top 12 finishes including a seventh-place result at this track back in February. He did have his struggles in the Cup Series at Daytona, but still finished 12th and 10th in both Talladega races in his lone year in the Cup Series. Like I said, you can leave a lot of money on the table in this race and Alfredo has shown and ability to finish well at these tracks and it shouldn’t be hard for him to pay off the price tag. Update: GPP Only.

Timmy Hill ($6,500) You have to assume Timmy Hill qualifies poorly. That’s typically his thing and in doing so he presents himself as a viable DFS plays. In eight career Xfinity Series races at Talladega he has an average starting spot of 31.6 and an average finish of 20.1 with two wrecks. The numbers get even better at Daytona where he has an average starting position of 28.6 in 11 career Xfinity Series races with an average finish of 14.4 with zero wrecks and four top ten finishes. Despite the fact he’s never wrecked at Daytona in this series doesn’t mean he never will. Don’t go wild with exposure, but he’s likely going to be popular in Cash games. Update: Your Cash lineups will easily start with Justin Haley and Timmy Hill since they start dead last. They'll have a ton of ownership, but it just makes sense to eat the chalk in Cash games and get creative elsewhere with others starting this far back.

Kyle Sieg ($6,000; Starting P32) So he's starting outside the top 30 and we've seen him move up in these drafting races so let's be sure to mix him into a couple builds. Back in February he started P36 here and finishes 21st. At Altanta-1: Started P31, Finished 24th. At Talladega: Started P37, Finished 18th. At Atlanta-2: Started P29, Finished 16th. You don't need a big performance out of him but he's arguably a strong Cash game play and could grab another top 20 finish.

JJ Yeley ($5,700) Similar to Hill, we could see Yeley come with significant ownership in Cash games and GPP’s assuming he qualifies pretty far back. Yeley has an average finish of 20.3 in 17 career races at the Xfinity level but what stands out is that he’s finished 13th or better in three straight races at Daytona. He didn’t finish this year’s race at Talladega, but prior to April’s race at Dega he had finished 16th, 11th, 11th, 22nd, 4th, and 7th in the six races prior. He’s another one of these cheap options that starts far back and naturally moves up through the field as everyone else wrecks. Update: Starting P28. Opinion hasn't changed too much on him.

David Starr ($5,100) David Starr is almost a lock to start toward the rear and if that’s the case you can bet on him being a cheap PD target. He’s started outside the top 25 in his last nine races here and in eight of those races he started outside the top 30. In that span he has five finishes in the top 18 at Daytona. He’s likely to ride around the back most of the race and the only way he moves up through the field is if everybody else is wrecking. So there isn’t a ton of win equity, but there will be appeal given where he’s likely to qualify. Update: Might be starting a little too high. You can probably pivot to anyone else in this range starting outside the top 30, but Starr isn't the worst play by any means.

One last note: try to remember, all drivers are in play for this race given the high variance we tend to see here. Certain drivers get downgraded if they start too high, but they still may have win equity. You'll have a hard time pitching a lineup to me in the Discord that I don't like unless you're stacking the first three rows of drivers. Anything can happen in this race.

Core Drivers

The Core Drivers will be posted in the NASCAR DFS Discord Channel Friday afternoon.

 

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