After a frustrating week at Auto Club, it’s nice to get an extra slate back with the Truck Series. I was doing pretty well in Xfinity last week in my Cash games up until they decided they needed to go to three overtimes. And then it’s clear we still have a lot to learn about the NextGen car in the Cup Series. Joe Gibbs Racing and I had a fairly rough week at Auto Club, but overall the race was absolutely fantastic to watch.

But now we go to the traditional, “cookie cutter” intermediate tracks. Last Vegas is a medium tire wear, 1.5-mile D-shaped track. Similar shape to Auto Club, but just smaller. For Vegas we can at least pull data from all the 1.5-mile tracks from the previous seasons, but probably with a little more emphasis on Charlotte, Texas, and Kansas. We can still look at old Atlanta data even though that track featured more tire wear prior to its re-structure in the offseason.

Friday’s race is going to be a one-day show for the Trucks. Here’s an idea of what we’re looking at this week for the Truck schedule:

  • Practice – 4:30pm ET
  • Qualifying – 5:00pm ET
  • Victoria’s Voice Foundation 200 – 9:00pm ET

We’ll get approximately 134 laps. If I had to guess the stage breakdown it’s probably along the lines of 30-30-74. Typically, these intermediate track races for the Truck Series are under two hours, but last year we saw nine cautions in the February race and ten in the September race. We have about 94 dominator points available, but if this becomes a caution-fest then we’ll lose out on fastest laps. Now for what it’s worth, we could potentially see fewer cautions with the trucks having practice and qualifying as a luxury. In the three Vegas races prior to the 2020 COVID pause, there were 14 total cautions for 72 laps. 

Now as I’ve done throughout the first two weeks, I’ve provided updates following practice and qualifying and that will remain true on Friday. I’ll be in the NASCAR DFS Discord for most of the afternoon answering questions, but bear with me because I’ll also be at work. But I’ll post the practice times as well as the qualifying order and who is upgraded/downgraded based on those results. And lastly, I want to try and not just throw Example Lineups together. I want to dedicate some time to them after qualifying despite the quick turnaround tomorrow so the Lineups will be posted no later than 7:30pm ET.

Driver Pool

Kyle Busch ($15,000) – Fade him at your own risk but I highly advise against doing that. If I were to make 20 lineups for the Happy Hour contest on Friday, Busch makes at least 13 of them. He’ll probably be at least 85% owned in Cash games and probably 55-65% owned in GPP’s. That’s just what happens when KB18 occasionally decides to be KB51 for a few truck races each year. This is his home track and so we’ve seen him put on a show whenever the opportunity presents itself for the home crowd. Here are his results at Vegas in his last four Truck races:

  • 2021; Started: 29th, Finished: 2nd – 16 laps led, 16 fastest laps
  • 2020; Started 3rd, Finished 1st – 108 laps led, 61 fastest laps
  • 2019; Started 1st, Finished 1st – 110 laps led, 48 fastest laps
  • 2018; Started 1st, Finished 1st – 55 laps led, 16 fastest laps

As you can see, that’s fairly difficult to fade. In last year’s race he probably could’ve won if he wanted to. But his employee, John Hunter Nemechek (more on him shortly), was running up front and KB likely wanted to get JHN his first win in the Truck Series for KBM. Here are some caveats to playing Busch on Friday. As soon as you plug him into your lineup, you’ll be restricted to a limited driver pool so do your best to differentiate and try to be contrarian with the rest of the build in GPP’s. When you spend 30% of your budget on one driver you have to find some value plays and thus rostering KB51 results in elevated ownership numbers for other value plays. Also, do not commit 100% exposure to him. Do leave yourself some lineups that leave him out in the event that he commits a penalty on pit road or jumps a restart. It has happened before, just not as often at Vegas. With practice and qualifying, he should be up front and if that’s the case he’ll easily collect dominator points and he could go wire-to-wire. Update: He's on the front row next to JHN. He's viable in all formats, but make sure you have a couple lineups without him in the rare event that he busts. I'm playing him in my Cash lineup and will have at least 60% exposure in GPP's.

John Hunter Nemechek ($12,000) – JHN was great on these cookie cutters last year. He was the ultimate chalk in the Fall race and he dominated the first stage, but he lost power in the Truck and ultimately didn’t finish the race. Now in the Spring race last March, he led 94 laps with 33 fastest laps on his way to winning the race that his boss, Kyle Busch, was also running in. At Atlanta he led 21 laps and finished third, he grabbed a top five at Kansas, and he won both Charlotte and Texas while leading over 60 laps in each race. At the price we’ll be paying for JHN we’ll really need him to get dominator points in this race. But he’ll likely be in play for GPP’s and he’ll carry significant ownership. Update: He's on the pole and could lead a decent amount of laps if KB lets him win the stages for points. I prefer him more in GPP's though, but use your best judgment.

Zane Smith ($10,200) – Smith had some solid success on intermediate tracks last year with GMS Racing. He finished 6th at Vegas and Atlanta early in the season and grabbed top ten finishes at Kansas, Charlotte, and Texas. In the playoff race at this track he had a flat tire and lost power and finished poorly. But he’s coming off a win to kick off his tenure with Front Row Motorsports and there’s top five upside at this track. Update: Not as high on him as I was prior to practice and qualifying. I almost would rather take shots on Ben Rhodes/Chandler Smith in this range.

Christian Eckes ($9,600) – I love Eckes from the perspective that he’ll be way under-owned in GPP’s. He won this race in the Fall with a 123.0 driver rating and he has four top tens in five races. The presence of Kyle Busch effectively makes us a little worried about every driver, but on a part-time schedule Eckes was solid on 1.5-mile tracks and he’s running in ThorSport equipment. Update: Starting P9 so my opinion hasn't changed really. Think he's viable in GPP's.

Ryan Preece ($9,400) – There isn’t much to go off of for Preece. But we can essentially boil it down to he’s a Cup Series driver at the Truck Series. Currently he doesn’t have a full-time ride but he’s in a developmental deal with SHR and he’ll be running a handful of races across all three series. On Friday, he’ll be in the 17-truck for David Gilliland Racing. Last year he ran this truck for two races, Nashville and Pocono, and pulled out a win at Nashville. Will he likely be pricey? Sure, but with Kyle Busch running in the race as well, it’s possible that he’s under-owned and strangely a contrarian play. Update: Qualified in the top five and is a nice piece in GPP's if you're fading Kyle Busch.

Ty Majeski ($9,200) – I’ll go back to the well with Majeski. He truly didn’t do terrible for a driver that was on the pole for Daytona. He led 21 laps and still finished 7th. This is probably the best equipment he’s ever driven in. Back in 2020 with Niece Motorsports he finished 13th at Vegas, 8th at Charlotte, 15th at Texas, and 11th at Kansas-1. He also grabbed a top ten at Charlotte with ThorSport last year. While he probably won’t offer the PD that he did last year, solid finishes should be in store for him this year but he may be tough to fit with Kyle Busch. Update: He might be hard to squeeze into your lineups in Cash games and given where Bodine and Friesen qualified you don't need to play him in those formats, but he showed speed and he's worth rostering in GPP's.

Grant Enfinger ($8,700) - Enfinger qualified P11 and we know he has the equipment and talent to move this ride into the top five. He's under $9K so he really doesn't need to do much from here to hit value and dare I call him a dark horse to win if KB gets a late penalty?

Matt Crafton ($8,500) – Crafton is overall just consistent, which is hard to find in the Truck Series but that’s probably why he’s usually among the more expensive drivers each week. He’s raced Vegas 25 times in his Truck Series career and never won here. However, in 11 of his last 18 races here he’s finished in the top five including seven finishes in the top three. The problem with Kyle Busch running is that KB probably wins. But a solid finish and some PD could provide a solid day for Crafton and you can make it work with Busch lineups since Crafton is only $8,500. Update: More of a GPP play since I don't think he has a good chance of getting dominator points. But this is his 500th career race in the Truck Series and he has the consistency to finish in the top five, maybe even top three.

Stewart Friesen ($8,200) – Friesen has posted some solid results of 6th, 4th, 4th, and 9th at the last four Vegas races. He grabbed a top five at Charlotte last year and finished 3rd and 6th there in 2019 and 2018. He is one of the better drivers in the series in a decent ride. Ideally, we’ll need some PD out of him because he doesn’t really strike us as a driver that can get dominator points at these tracks. Update: Absolutely love the play. He isn't normally a lock at intermediates but he runs well here and he's starting outside the top 15.

Tanner Gray ($7,900) – Gray has run four races at Vegas with three finishes in the top 12 with his worst finish coming last Fall where he started 29th and finished 23rd. But he was 12th here a year ago but pulled off a pair of top eight finishes here in 2020. He’s been decent on intermediate tracks in general with some top tens at Vegas, a top five at Kansas, and an 11th place finish at Atlanta in 2020. I do imagine he’ll carry some ownership based solely on the fact that he’ll be easy to fit in any lineup with Kyle Busch. Perhaps a good way to differentiate your KB51 builds would be to fade Gray, but we’ll see where he qualifies on Friday. Update: Low-owned GPP play. Qualified a little too high, but ownership will be low. I personally won't be getting much exposure because I think it's more likely he goes backward.

Derek Kraus ($7,700) - I love the play in GPP's. He always has the ability to break the slate as a low-owned option and he could sneak into the top 10 in stage three and finish very well.

Todd Bodine ($7,500) – I had to do a double take when I saw Bodine on the entry list Monday night. Will he be competitive? I have no idea. He just turned 58 on Sunday and hasn’t raced full-time since 2012 but he did mix in a few races in 2013. He’ll be in Halmar Friesen equipment, similar to Stewart Friesen so it can’t be too terrible. In nine career truck races at Vegas he has a win (from back in 2005) and six finishes in the top five. He’s a two-time Truck Series champion so I’m at least intrigued and he’ll definitely be on our radar during practice and qualifying. Update: Here's what I like: He qualified outside the top 20, BUT he flashed top 15 speed in practice. He's doing this “retirement tour” to reach 800 career races that only like 25 people can lay claim to. He wants to go out and have fun. His words, not mine. I think he's still worth playing because he's affordable and offers PD and showcased some speed. I don't think he would go out there just to do laps.

Bret Holmes ($7,400) – About a year ago for this very race we were lured into the Bret Holmes trap. Truthfully he was running pretty well for a cheap PD option, but he ultimately didn’t finish the race under the damaged vehicle policy. He bounced back in the second Vegas race and finished 11th. That was easily his best finish on intermediate tracks in 2021 so be weary. This recommendation is not a lock. In fact Vegas-2 was his only top 20 at 1.5-mile tracks last year so we might need to just get exposure in GPP’s. But I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt based on the second Vegas race and how he looked early on in last year’s race. Regardless where he starts, I wouldn’t go here in Cash games. Update: Borderline Cash game play, but I do like him for GPP's quite a bit. 

Kaz Grala ($7,000) - Grala didn't blow anyone out of the water with his practice and qualifying times, but he is a good driver. The equipment isn't great, but I think he can move the ride up by default and return value at this price tag. I'm hoping he steals a top 15.

Hailie Deegan ($6,500) – Deegan hasn’t had great success in Vegas. But last year was her first full-time series racing Trucks and she did finish 13th at both Charlotte and Kansas last season. Is she a slam dunk? No. Few drivers in this series are. But she is affordable and she has top 15 upside on this kind of track. If she qualifies outside the top 20 then she becomes an even better play but keep exposure in check. Update: She basically did what I thought she would do and qualified P20, but still has top 15 upside if she stays clean.

Timmy Hill – Similar to Tanner Gray, Timmy Hill will likely be a popular option for KB lineups. He will be affordable and most will probably be intrigued by the fact he’ll be in the 56-truck. The equipment is okay by Truck Series standards. Hill piloted this ride to some strong finishes down the stretch of the 2021 season including a 17th place finish in the Fall Vegas race and he also grabbed a top 20 at Charlotte while his brother finished top 20 at Texas. As you can see, there’s top 20 upside with this ride, but it’s no guarantee and ownership could be heavy here. Update: I think he's the paydown in Cash games. He qualified P28 but we know he and Tyler have pushed this Truck to a top 20 before and he's dirt cheap. He'll be popular in KB lineups so maybe pivot off him in GPP's.

Austin Wayne Self ($5,900) - $5,900 just feels a little too cheap for AWS. He does have sneaky top ten upside as we saw last September, but if he runs a clean race you can probably slot him in for a solid top 15 finish. I’d prefer to get a little PD out of him because he probably qualifies just inside the top 20. I’m less inclined to play him if he qualifies in the top 15 without the PD, but a guy like AWS will probably be popular in KB51 lineups. Update: Death. Taxes. AWS only being a GPP play.

Niece Motorsports – We’re getting some decent equipment that’s underpriced with three drivers from Niece Motorsports: Kris Wright ($5,700), Lawless Alan ($5,200), and Dean Thompson ($4,600). It’ll likely come down to where each driver starts in terms of how I prioritize them. But Wright did finish 16th here last Fall, while the other two will need to show us something in practice and qualifying. I won’t commit heavily to either one driver, but the equipment isn’t terrible and if Wright or Alan is offering PD then we could be looking at some punt options. Update:  Play at your own risk. Wright looked decent, but we're gambling on Thompson and Alan. I don't trust any of these guys in Cash but you're hoping you hit on the right one in GPP's.

Practice Notes

Qualifying Order

Example Lineups

DraftKings Cash Game Example Lineup

  1. Kyle Busch
  2. Stewart Friesen
  3. Todd Bodine
  4. Colby Howard
    1. Blaine Perkins (Pivot)
  5. Kaz Grala
    1. Matt DiBenedetto (Pivot)
  6. Timmy Hill

As you can see I’m not offering a pivot to KB51 for tonight’s race. He’ll be so heavily owned that if he busts then he’ll crush 80% of the lineups in your contests so you aren’t dead and if he dominates and wins then you’ll need him to have a chance at cashing.

DraftKings GPP Example Lineup (With Kyle Busch)

  1. Kyle Busch
  2. Grant Enfinger
  3. Stewart Friesen
    1. Bret Holmes (Pivot)
  4. Kaz Grala
  5. Austin Wayne Self
    1. Hailie Deegan (Pivot)
  6. Timmy Hill
    1. Blaine Perkins (Pivot

DraftKings GPP Example Lineup (Without Kyle Busch)

  1. John Hunter Nemechek
    1. Chandler Smith (Pivot)
  2. Ryan Preece
  3. Stewart Friesen
  4. Todd Bodine
    1. Bret Holmes (Pivot)
  5. Kaz Grala
  6. Austin Wayne Self
    1. Derek Kraus (Pivot)