NASCAR DFS Playbook & Top Picks: Cook Out 400 at Richmond

We’re back! After a couple week break for the bulk of the Paris Olympics, the NASCAR Cup Series is back at Richmond. The Cook Out 400 on Sunday evening is the last short track before the playoffs start in four races.

Richmond Race Trends

The “Action Track” as it’s known is a bit of an odd one for race trends. It’s a short track by definition and has a bunch of laps per race. However, unlike other short tracks, the trends don’t necessarily match what’s typically expected. For example, we see a ton of laps led from the front of the field (66% from the top-10 starting spots). On the other hand though, more than half the top-10 finishers start outside the top-10. The other oddity with this? Only twice has a top-five starter won the race in the last 12 races at Richmond. See not your average short track.

It’s still been tough to move up here under green flag conditions however, pit strategy and taking advantage of cautions can help explain the chunks of PD that drivers still obtain. Just look at the March race of this year where there were a ton of swings after lap 390. Another typical short track trend here is that there is usually just one or two drivers to be laps led dominators and less than half the field finishing on the lead lap.

Cook Out 400 Practice and Qualifying Results

The following chart shows the results of practice and qualifying on Saturday afternoon. It’s sorted by qualifying spot and compares that to that driver’s average practice speed ranks. We’re looking at long run speed for practice and the drivers who had the best marks as that’ll be key in the race. One thing of note is that they are using two different tire compounds this week and letting the teams choose which ones they want to use when. However, that effected the practice speeds, especially for single-lap speed, and where drivers rank.

DraftKings Richmond Scoring Trends

The following chart shows the average points scored by starting spot on DraftKings over the last five races at Richmond. The averages don’t take into account who was in each spot nor how they started there. It’s designed to show the general strategy for building DFS lineups even though it’s not a hard-and-fast rule.

It’s one of the more interesting graphs for this we’ve seen this year. Each group of 10 starting spots seems to do the same thing in which the first few spots score highly and then they trail off toward the back of the 10. That’s the case all the way into the 30s. This fits with the race trends above where we’ve seen more-than-half of the top-10 starting outside the top-10.

FanDuel Richmond Scoring Trends

The following chart shows the average points scored by starting spot on FanDuel over the last five races at Richmond. The averages don’t take into account who was in each spot nor how they started there. It’s designed to show the general strategy for building DFS lineups even though it’s not a hard-and-fast rule.

While the spikes and dips in the this chart aren’t as clear as the DraftKings one, they’re still there. The same general trend is here too as we see above in which the first half of each group of 10 are the better scoring spots. In fact, we see basically the same number of spots above the red average line and those same spots rank generally the same on both DK and FD. The laps completed points are compressing the highs and lows given the 400 laps, or 40 laps completed points available for each spot.

Cook Out 400 DFS Strategy

So with everything above taken into account, how are we building DFS lineups for DraftKings and Fanduel for Richmond? Firstly, we’re mainly looking at tournament builds this week. Richmond isn’t a great track for cash builds historically as there’s just not enough leverage across the field to gain advantage for 50-50 contests.

Secondly, we’re building around laps led first and then finish position to round out the build. We’re going to want two laps led dominators in the lineup, just look back at March where two drivers topped 140 laps in front with the third-highest total being 17. There’s been at least one driver to lead more than 100 laps in each of the last 5 races in addition to at least one other driver topping 80 laps.

Once we decide on the laps led dominators we’re building around, we need to figure out the drivers to target for finish position. In that regard we’re going with a bit of track history, similar track history, and practice speed. For similar tracks, we’re looking at Phoenix, Iowa, Gateway, New Hampshire, and previous Richmond races. As was mentioned above, we can look to quite a few spots throughout the field to find good options for position differential and finish position.

One quirk we’ll see this weekend is the new two tire options. There is the yellow lettered “prime” tire which is the standard Goodyear tire they bring to Richmond. The red lettered “option” tire is a softer compound that’s faster initially but won’t last nearly as long as the prime tire. Think of it as the soft and medium tires in F1 or Indy car. The only difference is they don’t have use each of the tires if they don’t want to. It’s simply an idea for later in the race or to try and gain track position.

Top Drivers For Richmond

Top Tier Drivers

Denny Hamlin

Home track. Dominant manufacturer. Dominant team. All of that plus the fact that he won here in March make Hamlin a serious threat. He started P11 in March and led 17 laps on the way to winning. The last two wins for him here have come from him starting P13. All of this means that we don’t need Hamlin to be leading a ton to be a threat to win and maximize the finish points, and if he starts further back, we can still get value from him without being a laps led dominator.

Christopher Bell

Bell has been incredibly quick at the shorter flatter tracks this year even if not all the results bear that out. He was once again happy with the speed in the car at practice on the prime tires and he should be a big threat to lead a bunch of laps during the race. He’ll need to avoid the incidents that have ended his days in subpar finishes over the past few races, but if he keeps it clean, there’s no reason he cant be a threat throughout the race.

Martin Truex Jr.

What’s not to like about Truex here? He’s led the most laps here in the last several races, he’s won here thrice, and nearly won the Spring race here. He’s still looking for his first win of the season and this is likely his best shot to do that before the playoffs, though he’s likely locked in at this point. The only concern is late-race restart and pit stops but if it stays green late, Truex is squarely in the threat to win column and dominate.

Mid-Tier Drivers

Chase Elliott

It’s been a bit of an understated year on shorter tracks for Elliott. He’s had better speed than the results may show at a glance. Like some others in these write-ups, the practice speed, or lack thereof, is a tad misleading as they waited a while to go out. Overall though when all things were equal later in the runs, the 9-car had solid speed at race pace. He may be lower played thanks to his middling results but if the result on Sunday matches his speed all season, we’re looking at a good day.

Joey Logano

The speed for the Penske cars looks questionable based on the chart above, however they waited a while to go out on the track. The speed in qualifying assuages those concerns as well. WE also have to take into account that Logano ran P2 here in March, and moved up to get there, as well as ran well with the two tire combo at North Wilkesboro in the All-Star race. Logano’s bullish driving style works on tracks where passing is tough as well.

Chris Buescher

Buescher won this race last year and ran well earlier this year here too. He needs a win to lock into the playoffs and he’s in shape to do that on Sunday. The qualifying spot is good and his long-run speed at practice was near the top of the chart. Buescher has threatened for a few wins this year but coming to a place with good results and good speed could push him in to victory lane for the first time in 2024.

Tyler Reddick

Reddick has produced four top-10s in the last five similar races to Richmond, including a P10 in March. He appears to have better long run speed this weekend than short run speed which should give him a shot to move up well. It should also mean that he’s got a shot to be a laps led dominator and accrue fastest laps as well. Reddick hasn’t necessarily lit up short tracks and might be a tad overlooked this week for DFS as well.

Ty Gibbs

Gibbs is here as a bit of a leverage play and a bit of a pivot. If we want to get our hands on a JGR car but not spend at the top of the salaries for it, Gibbs works. The speed was solid enough to land him around the top-10 in basically every metric at practice. He’s been solid at shorter tracks this year but not spectacular which fits his price tag. If he can nab a top-10 finish, he started P8 in March, there is value here for a guy in a top-tier car.

Josh Berry

The practice times weren’t great for Berry mainly because they waited a while to go out. With the track already rubbered up it was hard to make fast laps. That being said though, the speed on the long runs is there for him in the 4-car. When you give a driver like Berry who is a short track specialist, that makes for a dangerous combo. Remember in March he finished P11 after starting P30. Just imagine what he can do starting closer to the front?

Value Tier Drivers

Todd Gilliland

Gilliland has simply been better than not more often than not this year. Especially at the similar tracks to Richmond. He’s had four top-17 finishes in the five similar races this year and that includes back-to-back P12s. The Toddfather has become the plug-and-play budget option this year most weeks and that’s what he is again this weekend.

Erik Jones

The move to Toyota for LMC has been a slow burn this year but he flashed the potential at Richmond earlier in the season. Starting P27 in March and finishing P14 is promising to be sure. Jones is also coming off a P13 in the last similar race to Richmond. The 43-car has been hit-and-miss this year to be sure but this weekend is a better chance of hit for Jones.

Austin Dillon

The break has clearly been good for the RCR garage and Dillon specifically. He was the fastest in practice on the option tires and then ran great race pace laps on the yellow prime tires. Short tracks have been a bit of a strength, at least for solid runs, for Dillon and Richmond could be a big reset for the RCR crew. Kyle Busch is in play but we’ll take the savings on Dillon.

Zane Smith

He wasn’t going to make the write-up originally. Smith simply hasn’t been great on short tracks this year. However, he and his team went out on the prime tire early in practice and competed with the option tire drivers, aka he had speed in the main race tire that equalled the short run tires. If that speed makes it to the race and holds, he could be quite interesting for DFS this far down the salary list. For those who didn’t pay attention to practice, he’s likely to get overlooked.

Ty Dillon

Dillon has been good at getting better finishes out of his equipment than he should. In his five races this year he’s averaged 24 points a race on DraftKings and at this price that’s nearly averaging 5x. We don’t need him to produce 5x but getting the 18-20 points he got here in March would be enough at this price near the bottom of the salaries.

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