NASCAR heads to the hallowed grounds of Indianapolis Motor Speedway for the return of the Brickyard 400. NASCAR is abandoning the gimmick of running on the Indy Road Course and returning to the 160-lap tradition of the Brickyard 400. It’s an historic race track and one recognized around the world so it’ll be exciting to see how the Gen7 car performs Sunday afternoon.

 

Now I know this is the part of the NASCAR DFS Playbook where Matt typically breaks down the racing trends for Indianapolis and even the scoring trends on DraftKings and FanDuel. Unfortunately, we don’t have that for this year’s race. The last time NASCAR raced on the oval at Indy was 2020. And historically the racing was a bit boring. That’s not a knock on the track. It just speaks to how this wasn’t a great track for stock cars, and now we have to introduce the NextGen car to it.

But there’s certainly optimism with a new car and there’s a level of nostalgia heading into Sunday’s race. Yet we also don’t have many great track comparisons for Indianapolis. Pocono Raceway and Michigan International Speedway are probably the two best options. The good news is that all three series raced at Pocono last weekend. 

The intrigue with tracks like this will always be fuel mileage. When that comes into play, and the varying strategies, we don’t typically have great racing but there’s an added level of drama. But even last week there was a late caution that allowed plenty of drivers to go to pit road to top off for fuel. From there, those who had track position obviously benefitted.

But we do have the same number of laps as last week. 160 laps for a 400-mile race. The stages are fairly even for the most part at 50-50-60 laps in the first, second, and third stages. We have about 100-105 dominator points to account for when we take cautions into consideration. 

Last week we saw five different drivers lead at least 19 laps. I don’t think we see that same trend this weekend, but anything is possible. I am more concerned about how difficult it was to pass last weekend, as is always the case with Pocono.

Only one driver that started outside the top 15 was able to finish in the top 10 and that was Bubba Wallace who started P29. There were some other movers as well, but nothing groundbreaking. Erik Jones started P23 and finished 14th. Chase Briscoe started P28 and finished 15th. Corey LaJoie didn’t make any friends last weekend, but he finished 19th after starting P30. And Justin Haley, with the RFK alliance, started P34 and finished 22nd. 

We did have a full practice session Friday afternoon. Unfortunately, NBC made it incredibly difficult for customers to gain access to it so I was only able to see maybe 30% of it. But we are seeing the usual suspects show up with speed, especially some of the drivers who had speed last week at Pocono.

 

 

 

Brickyard 400 Practice Notes

 

NASCAR DFS Strategy for The Brickyard 400

The strategy this week doesn’t stray too much from last week’s. We have 160 laps and plenty of dominator points to consider for multiple-dominator builds. For cash games, I would consider maybe just one dominator because you restrict your budget if you try starting with two drivers in the $10,000 range and then plug in Brad Keselowski (more on him shortly). If you plug in Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney (last week’s winner), and Kez you’re left with just $20,200 for your last three drivers on DraftKings.

For tournaments/GPP’s you absolutely need the top two-to-three dominators and you need them to finish well as well. You’ll need the winner of the race and the proper mix of position differential plays that score well. But don’t shy away from a mid-range or value play that may have earned himself a good qualifying spot. It might be difficult to pass in this race. Alex Bowman was an optimal play last week because he started P6 and finished third at $7,800 on DraftKings. If a car has speed and can hang in the top 10 at low ownership, do not write them off.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Lineup Picks for The Brickyard 400

Top-Tier Driver Plays

Denny Hamlin

Hamlin starts on the front row next to fellow Toyota driver, Tyler Reddick. Hamlin was third in single-lap and 10-lap averages in Friday’s practice session. He also just finished as the runner-up last week at Pocono after he started P4 and collected 15.4 dominator points on DraftKings. By all accounts, he is once again a heavy favorite for this race. He’s never won here, nor has he ever even finished second. But he’s always had a sporty car at Indianapolis and he’s having a career year. This track requires horsepower and the general belief is the Toyota’s have the best engine under their hood. Hamlin could very well be kissing the bricks for the first time in his career on Sunday.

Ryan Blaney

I’m a bit lukewarm on Blaney. Obviously, coming off a win last week, he certainly had our attention. In fact, Team Penske as a team has four wins since the start of June. And Blaney clearly had the best car late in the race at Pocono. We will definitely need a similar run for this race. Blaney flashed okay speed in practice. He was top 10 in single-lap and 10-lap average but after the win last week, I think we were all anticipating a more dominant showcase. But he should have a car that just gradually gets better as the race carries on. Roger Penske owns this track so it’s certainly one that means a lot to this organization.

Christopher Bell

Christopher Bell is one of those drivers who didn’t qualify nearly as well as he probably should have. Bell had the fourth-fastest lap in practice and was even seventh in 10-lap averages. Starting P18 you imagine he can at least move up 10 spots and that would be a floor of 46 fantasy points for Bell if he finished eighth. If he can collect some dominator points as well, then that’s gravy. Bell did run this race with Leavine Family Racing back in 2020 and he started P35 and finish 12th. But in three races at Pocono, he’s finished 12th, 6th, and 4th while he’s also had speed and a car capable of leading laps at Michigan.

Brad Keselowski

Chalk City with Keselowski for Sunday’s race. $9,300 isn’t a bad price tag and yet he’s the sixth-most expensive driver in the field on DraftKings. Last week at Pocono he started P14 and finished seventh with 20 laps led and 20 fastest laps. All in all, it was a great day for RFK Racing and their affiliated team (Rick Ware Racing). This type of track, one that requires speed and horsepower, does elevate Keselowski’s upside as we saw last week with Pocono. But he’s a lock for cash games. He offers position differential and he has top five equity and we just saw him collection 14 dominator points a week ago. Just eat the ownership in cash games and find other ways to make your lineup unique.

 

Mid-Tier Driver Plays

Tyler Reddick

Reddick will be a popular option and Selz and I even noted on the NASCAR DFS Podcast that this felt like a bit of a mis-price. Reddick won the pole after having the best car in practice across the short-and-long runs. And, as we also discuss on this week’s podcast, pit road is very narrow. As you enter and leave you are at a higher risk of contact. Reddick has the best pit box on pit road and will have a clean exit when he does pit. Reddick’s also been on a nice run of late. He’s finished sixth or better in four straight races coming into Indianapolis. Momentum and speed; what more could you ask for?

Chris Buescher

Buescher doesn’t have the upside of teammate/boss, Brad Keselowski, but that was also the case last week and he still had a solid day at Pocono. At the tricky triangle, Buescher started P18 and finished 11th with 10.15 dominator points which elevated him to 6X value on DraftKings. Buescher has run well on the few comparable tracks that we have on the schedule including his win at Michigan last year when he led 52 laps. Both RFK Racing cars should be competitive this weekend and Buescher is arguably a cash game lock, similar to Keselowski.

Alex Bowman

I’m going to go with Bowman as a GPP pivot off the drivers priced beneath him. If you build 20+ lineups, by all means those drivers are in play. But Bowman has momentum and arguably the better equipment. Drivers like Ross Chastain and Kyle Busch certainly offer more position differential. But we just ran Pocono last week, and even before Chastain wrecked, his pace was off. Kyle Busch wrecked as well and he just can’t catch a break nowadays. But Bowman has momentum. He won Chicago two weeks ago and had a great run last week at Pocono. Now he starts a little further back for Indianapolis and he arguably had a top five car in practice. He still likely comes in light on ownership so he’s a driver I want to go back to in tournaments.

Austin Cindric

You can probably lock Cindric in for cash games this weekend. He starts P38 (in front of only BJ McLeod) and has quite the floor. Cindric isn’t a great driver. Sure, he has two wins on his resume for his career but one was at Daytona and the other only happened because his teammate ran out of fuel while in the lead on the last lap. But we plug Cindric in for cash games because of the floor. Sure, he’ll be popular. But his practice speeds indicate that he might have a top 15 car. We’ve seen Cindric show up fast in practice before. So, I’ll say he probably has more of a top 20 car similar to Pocono last week. If he does finish 20th (at the absolutely worst) then we’re looking at 40+ fantasy points on DraftKings. He only starts P38 because he lightly tagged the wall during qualifying. But Parker Kligerman was able to move his way up through the field during Saturday’s Xfinity Series race, and he arguably took on more damage when he tagged the wall on his qualifying lap.

Josh Berry

Berry is a very similar play to Cindric this weekend. And it sucks that they’re both going to be so popular but they both offer a great floor. Berry’s had a bit of an odd weekend. He ran Saturday’s Xfinity Series race but was involved in a wreck on the very first lap. It wasn’t his fault, but he still grabbed extra laps in practice which is always valuable for a driver. But he’s also a driver without much experience on this track. So that is something to be concerned with and the Penske cars are easily better than SHR. With that said, Berry laid down the 13th-fastest lap in practice. He may even have less ownership than Cindric but that’s not significant leverage by any means. Cindric might have a better ceiling, but Berry could potentially finish in the top 25 which would only be 29 fantasy points. That’s an okay floor but we certainly need more from him. Maybe with Caitlin Clark’s likeness on the hood of his car he can catch a fever for a top 15 finish.

 

Value-Tier Driver Plays

Erik Jones

The one thing I don’t like about Jones is that he’ll likely be popular. And this team is such a mess that I don’t love playing chalk Erik Jones. But alas, he looked strong last week at Pocono. He started P23 and finished 14th for 38 fantasy points on DraftKings. This week he starts further back and we know that he likes those bigger intermediates that require more horsepower. And maybe Legacy Motor Club has figured something out for this weekend because his teammate, John Hunter Nemechek, qualified P10. A top 20 finish would get Jones close to 5X value and we know this is a track type he enjoys as he has previously won at Michigan during his time with Joe Gibbs Racing.

Carson Hocevar

This kid is a bit of a dink, but I can’t deny that he’s ripped off some good finishes despite being in worse equipment than a majority of the field. Usually, Hocevar is a guy that qualifies further up. You have to go back three months to Talladega to find a race where Hocevar started worse than P23. And for this race we’re getting him at P30. In 12 of the 21 points paying races this year he’s finished 17th or better. That’s over half the races on the schedule so far. And he’s only $6,800 so if he finishes 17th for this race that would be almost 40 fantasy points and he would crush value at this price tag. As always, I’ll acknowledge that he has very little experience on this track. But he does get the most out of his equipment and I’m expecting at least a top 20 day from him if he can keep the car clean. And you have to love that he flashed top 10 speed in practice.

Todd Gilliland

Matt and I have talked up Toddfather ad nausea on the NASCAR DFS Podcast. Last week was really his first “bad” race in a while. I can’t quite remember, but I think he was caught up in a wreck and it ended his day. And that was unfortunate because we’ve seen him routinely crush value and finish well. The one time we get him starting outside the top 30, he ends up wrecking. This week we have him rolling off P24 and he still possesses the top 15 upside that we’ve seen plenty of times this year. Similar to Hocevar, he doesn’t have much experience on this track. In cash games, I’d lean Hocevar for the extra position differential, but I might argue Gilliland has shown us more of a ceiling over the course of the year. But I will also acknowledge that Hocevar’s car was faster in practice.

Justin Haley

We’ve already mentioned Brad Keselowski and Chris Buescher in the more expensive pricing ranges. Haley’s car does have an affiliation with RFK Racing and it showed last week. Sure, Haley benefitted from not being caught in the big wreck, but he once again did what we’ve seen all year. He started deep in the field, and moved up to score well. We normally don’t see him qualify this deep in the field. And maybe he prefers shorter tracks like Iowa and Nashville where he was top 16 in both races. But there’s still a good engine under this hood and he starts P35. Like Hocevar and Gilliland, he lacks experience, but he has the preferred partnership with RFK Racing even if the other two looked better in practice.

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