NASCAR DFS Playbook Tennessee Lottery 250: Top DraftKings Picks

The NASCAR Xfinity Series is back in action after a week off following the West coast, road course swing earlier this month. As the television coverage shifts from Fox to NBC, we get some technical racing at Nashville Superspeedway. Ty Gibbs and A.J. Allmendinger will make their presence known on Saturday afternoon as everyone contends for a custom Gibson guitar if they can get to victory lane. Several drivers in the field are going to be looking for some momentum this weekend as they’ll need anything they can get heading into the inaugural Chicago Street Course next weekend in honor of the Fourth of July weekend (even though the holiday is on a Tuesday). Let’s take a look at the NASCAR DFS drivers and strategies for Saturday’s Tennessee Lottery 250.

As mentioned in the Truck Series Playbook, Nashville Superspeedway is not quite an actual superspeedway despite the name. It’s a tri-oval measuring 1.333 miles in length with 14 degrees of banking in the turns and it’s a concrete track similar to Dover. But we can also look at higher speed tri-ovals when looking for extra data and analysis. Practice was held Friday afternoon and you can see the practice notes and speed below. Qualifying will be around 12:00pm ET with the green flag set to drop around 3:47pm ET so it’ll be a quick turnaround once we know the qualifying order.

Saturday’s race will have 188 laps broken into 45-45-98 lap segments. In the last two races at Nashville we’ve seen one driver lead over 120 laps while a secondary driver (that didn’t finish as well) led around 50 laps. I don’t necessarily want to say that’s likely to happen again this year. One of those races saw Kyle Busch absolutely dominate and the other saw Justin Allgaier run away with this race when there were only five cautions in 2022. If the Xfinity Series has taught us anything it’s to expect chaos and cautions. I will build some solo one-dominator lineups but I will mostly build out lineups with multiple (two or three) dominators in mind. Passing is a bit tricky here so don’t overload your lineup with PD plays if you aren’t confident they can all move up.

Tennessee Lottery 250 Practice Notes

NASCAR DFS Driver Pool

As always you can expect updates in RED following qualifying.

Ty Gibbs ($11,300)

It legitimately feels like there are there plenty of drivers in the top tier that could win this race on Saturday. Gibbs put up the fastest lap in Friday’s lengthy practice session and despite being 14^th in the ten-lap average, there really wasn’t a massive gap between Gibbs and the driver that was first. In his lone full-time Xfinity Series season (last year) he started P14 and finished fourth in this race with a 111.3 driver rating. It should come as no surprise he carries plenty of win equity heading into qualifying. Update: Several drivers qualified poorly so that may help Gibbs' case to stay up front and possibly gain the lead. This is a tough track to pass at so he'll really need to thrive in the long run over Custer.

Justin Allgaier ($11,100)

Allgaier’s been on a solid run since NASCAR visited Dover at the end of April. Over his last five races he has a win (Charlotte), two runner-up finishes (Portland and Darlington), and he was third at Dover while finishing seventh at Sonoma before the week off. More importantly, Allgaier is often referred to as the King of Concrete in the Xfinity Series given his success at Dover. He led 134 laps when he won this race last year. Allgaier’s been the only driver to break through with a win for Jr. Motorsports this season so it’s not too surprising that he’s the second-most expensive driver in the field. Update: Allgaier is live for Cash games because he qualified poorly but I may downgrade him from a dominator standpoints. Ownership will be elevated on Allgaier because of the starting spot, but if you want a PD play in this range, you can save $600 and go with Josh Berry who has more PD to offer and should move up.

John Hunter Nemechek ($10,800)

On the more predictable tracks this season, JHN has been pretty solid. He hasn’t performed well on the road courses and he wrecked at Talladega. But otherwise, he’s been fairly consistent. He won at Auto Club and Martinsville in dominating fashion and was top five at Dover, Darlington, and Charlotte before the two road courses on the west coast. His car also seemed to perform better in the long run as well so I expect him to qualify well and contend on Saturday. Update: I have a little more confidence in JHN getting to the front than Allgaier. He's a Cash game lock and could still win this race.

Cole Custer ($10,200)

Custer won the pole after a fairly ridiculous qualifying session.His form has really improved since Richmond with six straight finishes in the top seven. He's live for a strong finish and potentially the win while also a good candidate to lead laps early on a track where passing is difficult.

Austin Hill ($10,000)

It just doesn’t seem fun paying such a heavy price tag for Austin Hill especially after he cooled off from his hot start to the season. He finished eighth at Sonoma a couple weeks ago and prior to that he rattled off four straight finishes in the top five, including a fourth-place finish at Dover where he led 18 laps. He has a pair of top ten finishes at Nashville and while the car wasn’t impressive in practice, he does seem to show up on race day and grab a good finish. Update: Likely sees less ownership with all the other PD options in this range. Good GPP play.

Sam Mayer ($9,500)

Purely a PD play here. Mayer is one of a few drivers to get loose and has a top five finish here on his resume. Will be very popular in all formats and you can easily lock him in for Cash games.

A.J. Allmendinger ($9,300)

We might look back at this race and ask how Allmendinger was only $9,300. He finished fifth in this race two years ago and while he only finished 16^th here last year, he did lead 48 laps. He also performed pretty well at Dover with Kaulig Racing during his time in the Xfinity Series. During practice, his car seemed to perform well in the long run as well so that only makes me like the play even more if we can get a good qualifying effort out of him to potentially lead some laps. I also think his teammate, Chandler Smith ($9,100), is a good pivot range since he showcased good speed in practice. Update: He's Bob Pockrass' pick to win today. Offers a little PD too which is nice and ownership shouldn't be too overwhelming.

Carson Hocevar ($8,800)

Hocevar has looked very impressive in his last two appearances in the 77-car in the Xfinity Series. He finished eighth at Charlotte and sixth at Darlington. While those aren’t the best comparisons we might have for Nashville, he may still be slightly underpriced. He thrived in last night’s race scoring his second career Truck Series win and it’s very likely he gets a promotion to Xfinity in 2024. The best part with Hocevar is that he isn’t racing for points in Xfinity. He can strategize and race aggressively for a win, which I expect him to do on Saturday. Update: Still like him to race for track position and strategy as the day goes on. Starts a little high but that'll keep ownership down and he has top five upside as well. 

Brandon Jones ($8,400)

This is an absolute hazard play if there ever was one. Jones hasn’t been great in the move to Jr. Motorsports so far with only three top ten finishes and one top five. He did start and finish eighth earlier this year at Dover with seven fastest laps. He posted the 13^th-fastest single lap in qualifying, but was top five in the ten-lap run. He’s awfully hard to trust in Cash games so even if he starts further back, I might only prefer him in Tournaments. Update: Might go overlooked in favor of Sheldon Creed, who is also a fine play. Both are very risky though. Don't think you need either in Cash games but they're upside plays in Tournaments.

Zane Smith ($8,200)

Smith had a good run in last night’s race finishing second to Carson Hocevar and he collected some dominator points along the way. He’s in the 28-car for RSS Racing after this team scored a win a couple weeks ago with Aric Almirola at Sonoma. This will be Zane’s debut in the Xfinity Series this year, but he has plenty of experience on this track and will look to make a strong impression in this series for a potential future ride. Similar to Hocevar he doesn’t need to race for points and can strategize for a win. Update: Posted a good qualifying lap. Can't imagine he'll garner too much ownership. I may even be a bit underweight.

Daniel Hemric ($7,800)

Another driver that got loose in qualifying. I'll never feel good about him in Cash games but he offers a ton of PD today and is basically paying off this price tag if he finishes 18th.

Parker Kligerman ($7,600)

I haven’t felt great about putting Kligerman in a Playbook for quite some time. He was solid at Portland and Sonoma and even had a good showing at Darlington last month. He won the pole at Dover but didn’t lead a single lap and ultimately finished 38^th. There is a lot that can go right with him but also plenty that could go wrong. So he’s strictly a GPP-only play unless he qualifies deep in the field. But he drives for Big Machine and this is a huge weekend for the team because of the organization’s Nashville ties. You have to imagine Scott Borchetta wants a good showing from his driver.

Ryan Sieg ($7,200)

On paper Sieg is looking like a solid play this weekend. He grabbed a top ten finish here last year and was 16^th in 2021. And if you look at his career numbers at Dover he has a few top ten finishes and has never finished worse than 20^th in 17 races at the Monster Mile. His numbers on the high-speed intermediates have been rather pedestrian, but he looks to have top 12 speed this weekend which is worth paying for at this price tag. Update: Still fine for GPP's given the qualifying effort.

Brett Moffitt ($7,100)

Moffitt posted a pair of top 12 finishes between Portland and Sonoma which is very impressive for a guy on a smaller team. He was also 15^th at Dover earlier this season and overall he is that kind of sneaky play that can break through and be the difference maker in a large Tournament contest if he finishes well. He was arguably top 20 in speed in practice, but was actually pretty good in the long run too so hopefully he doesn’t over qualify the car. Update: Love the starting spot and don't think he'll be heavily owned. Good in all formats.

Connor Mosack ($6,500)

He’s not an easy driver to trust, but he seemingly shows up with speed in practice every week. He was top 20 in single lap and ten-lap averages so he’s at least worth mentioning. But in his last five races he only has one good finish so play him for the speed and hope he can break the streak and finish well. I wouldn’t argue with anyone that maybe wants to avoid this play. Update: I previously said he was tough to trust and his qualifying lap didn't make me feel any better. He's probably fine in Cash games because he can't get you negative points and he's cheap.

Kyle Weatherman ($6,300)

Weatherman is in the 4-car for JD Motorsports on Saturday and while the equipment isn’t good, he’s used to wheeling rides like this. He’s still an upgrade over Garrett Smithley who was previously in this car so he provides a little more upside. Now Weatherman only ran 13 laps in practice and the team’s Twitter account did tweet out that they discovered a problem with the 4-car during yesterday’s session. They will need to qualify on speed to make the race so this will be one worth keeping an eye on in the event they can’t compete. Parker Retzlaff could be the pivot in this range if Weatherman doesn’t qualify, but my concern with Retzlaff is that he may over qualify in which we’d need another pivot. Update: Weatherman over Retzlaff although I'm still worried about the equipment issue for Weatherman that the team discovered. Wouldn't blame you for just loading up on Mosack in this range.

Jeremy Clements ($6,200)

I think Clements is worth our consideration even if Weatherman fails to qualify or if Parker Retzlaff starts too high. Clements rarely over qualifies his equipment and he’s a good enough veteran to grab a top 20 and possibly put up 30+ fantasy points on DraftKings. Clements started and finished 22^nd here last year but did finish 11^th in 2021 and he’s been solid in his last few trips to Dover. Update: P24 qualifying effort. Thoughts haven't changed.

Josh Williams ($5,800)

The price is slowly ticking up for Williams and it’s because he tends to qualify pretty far back and just gradually move his way up through the field as chaos ensues. He recorded top 20 finishes at Darlington and Charlotte and while the run at Dover wasn’t great he did qualify P7 so there was speed in the car. He’s potentially live for another top 20 finish in this car, but exposure will be based on where he qualifies. Update: Love the potential for a top 20 after he qualified P29.

Joe Graf Jr. ($5,200)

Graf has wrecked in the last two Nashville races. So we aren’t exactly off to a great start with a glowing endorsement. But crashes are unpredictable so I won’t hold that against him. He’s not the best driver, but if he was he wouldn’t be priced this low. He has a pretty good history at Dover and finished 23^rd there earlier in the year. We’ll need a little PD out of him to justify the play since there isn’t a ton of confidence here, but the equipment can hold up if he runs a clean race. Update: Pivot if you can. I'd only play him if you're hand is forced. Hard to trust anyone in this range, but his equipment isn't awful. He just isn't reliable.

NASCAR DFS Core Plays