NASCAR DFS Playbook Sport Clips Haircuts VFW Help A Hero 200: Top DraftKings NASCAR DFS Picks
The NASCAR Xfinity and Cup Series return to a Crown Jewel for the second straight week as both series will be running the Lady in Black, the Track Too Tough To Tame, Darlington Raceway! This track always produces some of the best racing every single time NASCAR visits. Measuring in at 1.366 miles with very high tire wear, we tend to see tire strategy play a huge role here and it leaves us with just three races left in the regular season for the Xfinity Series. Earlier this year we saw Justin Allgaier dominate this race to claim his first win of the 2022 season. Can he go two-for-two without collecting his Darlington Stripe? Or will someone like Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, Ty Gibbs, Ross Chastain, or Noah Gragson take the checkered flag? Let’s dive into this week’s NASCAR DFS picks!
This is one of those condensed schedules for the weekend. So this is one of those days where I will get the Playbook up prior to practice and qualifying and I’ll be posting updates in the Playbook as well as in the NASCAR DFS Discord channel. Saturday’s slate is interesting. We have Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, and Ross Chastain competing in the Xfinity Series race. That depresses the pricing on some of the Xfinity regulars a bit so we can take advantage of those discounts when they’re available to us.
We have 147 laps for Saturday’s race which will give us roughly 100 dominator points to work with. Obviously, the more cautions we see, the fewer dominator points available to us. The Spring race saw eight cautions for 33 laps, while the four races prior to 2022 saw about seven-to-nine cautions for about 40 laps. The differing radii on each end of the track are a bit tricky as we’ll see plenty of driver scrub the wall and collect their Darlington Stripe. And as always, this track sees plenty of tire wear so having fresh tires with track position is crucial.
Practice Results
Driver Pool
Kyle Larson ($11,500) It goes without saying that Larson is in play this weekend. We’ve only seen the 17-car for Hendrick Motorsports run the road courses in the Xfinity Series this year, but prior to the Spring Cup race at Darlington, Larson had ripped up four straight finishes in the top three, with three runner-up finishes at this track. He’s led over 100 laps in three races here at the Cup level and overall, this track just fits his style of driving. He likes to run the high line along the wall to generate as much speed and momentum coming out of the corners so he’s an easy dominator candidate, with win equity, for Saturday’s race.
Christopher Bell ($10,900) Bell over revved his engine during practice and wasn't able to qualify. Assuming they get the car fixed then he's an easy PD target for this afternoon's race. I didn't initially have him in the Playbook because I'm not entirely sold on his resume with high tire wear tracks, but we can jump on the PD if it's being served to us on a platter.
Ross Chastain ($10,400) Chastain’s results in the XFIN series haven’t been great in 2022. In three races he’s finished 17th, 4th, and 28th and those were all on road courses with DGM Racing. For Saturday’s race he’ll be in the 48-car for Big Machine Racing and with the right driver behind the wheel, we’ve seen this car have speed and contend. Tyler Reddick was flying in this car in the Spring race before he tagged the wall late in the race and lost track position, finishing 26th. Reddick then followed that performance up with a win at Texas in this car. So as long as the right driver is behind the wheel, we can put stock in this ride. Chastain finished second in this very race two years ago where he led 43 laps with Kaulig Racing. Given that he doesn’t have as many enemies in the Xfinity Series as he does in the Cup Series, we can feel pretty good about targeting Chastain Saturday afternoon.
Justin Allgaier ($10,200) Allgaier has won the last two Spring races at Darlington including this past Spring where he led 76 laps with 29 fastest laps. In six of his last seven races here, he’s finished in the top ten with a driver rating over 100. He also went on to win this year’s race at Nashville which has some comparisons to Darlington. This is a solid dominator candidate and he saves you $1,300 if you pivot off Larson.
Noah Gragson ($10,000) Let’s keep targeting the Chevy’s, shall we? The analysis with Gragson is brief; he’s good at Darlington. In six career Xfinity Series races at this track, he’s never finished worse than eighth and he’s led at least 40 laps in six of those races. He was runner-up here in the Spring and he won this race a year ago. He finished second at Auto Club earlier this year, which is a track that also features high tire wear and he’s been phenomenal at Homestead. He can manage tires and he wants to make a strong push for a championship before he moves up to the Cup Series full-time in 2023. Update: Had a decent practice and will start on the pole. Solid dominator candidate if he can get around Brandon Jones.
Josh Berry ($9,800) It’s definitely shaping up to where we could get Berry at under 10% rostership in GPP’s. Obviously, if he qualifies poorly then that means he’ll be more of a chalky option. But we know there’s win equity here since he has a pair of wins on the season and he grabbed a top five at Auto Club in the Spring. He didn’t have a great showing here in the Spring, but he did finish second here in 2021 and he finished tenth at Homestead in the same year. If you’re entering 20 lineups, and if Berry qualifies well, I would likely play him in four or five lineups because given the level of talent in this field he will be a great contrarian option. Update: Will likely carry more ownership than originally anticipated since the JRM cars are pretty fast today and he's starting P15.
AJ Allmendinger ($9,500) The price tag is great on Allmendinger but I'm only adding him to the Playbook because of his PD upside. I don't love his comments following practice. Seemed a little concerned about the car and didn't seem confident he could put the car where he needed to on the track. He starts P19 and can get a top ten but I don't know if he's breaking the slate today.
Sam Mayer ($9,000) Yeah I’m back on my Sam Mayer BS again and I’ll cherry pick as many stats as I want to justify the play. Hear me out, through June he had nine finishes in the top six in 15 races. That includes Auto Club (high tire wear), Darlington (Spring), Texas and Charlotte (intermediates), and Nashville (somewhat comparable). What did we see them run in July and August? A bunch of road courses and some drafting tracks (I’m exaggerating but bear with me). It’s been a rough summer for Samuel. And given his youth and inexperience I still have some concerns about targeting him on a high tire wear track with this kind of competition. But with a sixth-place finish at Auto Club and a top five earlier in the year at Darlington, I can buy in. I can totally understand that in this field he may not be worth $9,000 though. Per usual, let’s see where he qualifies. Update: Qualified P12. I can get behind this in GPP's.
Austin Hill ($8,700) I’m going to lump Hill and his teammate, Sheldon Creed ($7,800), in the same section because they’re in the same equipment, have had two completely different seasons, but both have the same Truck Series background. For both drivers, the results are a little all over the place, but Hill does have two wins on the season (Daytona and Atlanta). At the Xfinity Series level, he grabbed a top ten earlier this year at Darlington and has a pair of top tens at Nashville. For Creed, he actually has two wins in the Truck Series at Darlington and he grabbed a pair of top tens at Homestead. It’ll likely come down to practice and qualifying to determine who we like more but heading into practice there’s reason to like both. Update: Both Hill and Creed qualified in the top five so they're both likely GPP plays.
Brandon Jones ($8,500) Jones is on the pole and he has a win here although it wasn't in dominating fashion. He's an easy fade in Cash games for me. I just don't trust him enough and could see him wrecking or just losing plenty of PD. I will say the price tag is plenty friendly for GPP builds though.
Riley Herbst ($8,100) Herbst’s Darlington resume is a bit all over the place. He finished third here in the Spring and in total has two top five finishes in five races here. He finished 18th, 28th, and 38th in the three other races. However, I will subscribe to the theory that he’s a relatively good driver on high tire wear tracks. He’s finished top ten in both his races at Auto Club and he’s finished 11th, 9th, and 10th in his three races at Homestead. He also finished third at Nashville earlier in the year. The price is at a slight discount and if he offers some PD, I think he’s a great GPP play with top five upside, but a top ten finish feels pretty safe as well.
Ryan Sieg ($7,600) Darlington is actually one of Sieg’s best tracks. He’s finished top 15 in six straight races including five straight finishes in the top 11. The downside with Sieg is that he likely qualifies well, but I’m hopeful that with more Cup drivers in the field we may get some PD out of him. He’s finished 10th, 4th, and 11th in his last three races at Auto Club and he finished 8th at Homestead in the Spring of 2021. He’s a top 12 driver in this field as he should make the playoffs. Is there win equity? Not really, but he’s still an experienced driver that can finish well. I guess the one big concern is that he might gamble on old tires for the sake of having track position. We’ve seen that from him before, but he can finish well here if he doesn’t pull that nonsense. Update: Not a great qualifying effort from Sieg but he offers PD. Didn't look great in practice either but I have faith in his track record to pay off his price tag.
Anthony Alfredo ($6,700) The sample size is so tough to read with Alfredo. His best results on high tire wear tracks came in his time with Richard Childress Racing. He had an 89.3 driver rating in the Spring 2020 race at Auto Club with RCR and he finished sixth. This past Spring with Our Motorsports he finished 5th, but with only a 69.0 driver rating. That’s not all that “nice” if I’m being honest. He finished 15th here in the Spring, but that was right around where he started (P14). He also finished 11th and 4th at Homestead in 2020, but again, that was with RCR. Can he manage the tires here? Sure. But a large portion of his previous success was with a better team. I think Our Motorsports is capable of running a top 15 race, especially with Alfredo, but the variance likely relegates him to just a GPP play for Saturday afternoon’s race. Update: Alfredo collected a Darlington Stripe in practice and didn't qualify so he'll start in the back. Pretty affordable PD target in all formats.
Stefan Parsons ($6,200) It feels weird consciously writing up Parsons when he’s probably more expensive than I’d like to pay for him, but here we go… he finished 20th here in the Spring and that was in far worse equipment. Now here comes a large grain of salt; on the more comparable tracks he doesn’t have the greatest resume. But in five races with Alpha Prime Racing in 2022, he’s finished 17th or better in three of those races, including a top 15 at Nashville. He’s not a lock and not someone you should aim to be heavy on. But I don’t mind being slightly overweight because I don’t think many people will be on him. I think you can also look at his teammate, Ryan Ellis ($5,200), who has four finishes in the top 20 this year and according to TheDFSSniper (@TheDFSSniper on Twitter), Ellis has made six optimal lineups in his nine races this year. Update: Probably going to downgrade Parsons since he's starting inside the top 15.
Kyle Sieg ($6,100) Truthfully, I don’t love Sieg. He doesn’t have a ton of experience on high tire wear tracks and you have to understand that he doesn’t have a ton of top 15 upside given his inexperience. However, if he starts deep in the field (outside top 30) then I think he’s an okay PD play. He finished 18th at Auto Club after he started P38 and he’s had a few other finishes in the top 25. But we do need PD out of him. The equipment is fine, but this isn’t a slam dunk given how tough this track can be if you don’t have experience. But we do like his brother for this race so hopefully he gives his bloodline some tips. Update: Sieg didn't post a qualifying lap and will start towards the back. Not as confident in him as we are in Alfredo though.
Kyle Weatherman ($5,900) Weatherman might be everyone’s favorite value play if he offers PD. He finished 12th here in the Spring and has shown that he can pilot this car to a top 20 finish. He did lose power at Nashville so there are still concerns about the equipment. However, if anyone can get the most out of it, he’s shown that he can do it. He finished 16th at Auto Club with DGM Racing so I do believe he can manage the tires. If he qualifies too high, then we may need to pivot if his PD upside is capped. Update: Qualified inside the top 20. GPP play.
Josh Williams ($5,800) It’s been a weird season for Williams. His partnership with BJ McLeod Motorsports came to an abrupt end and then after he wasn’t able to qualify for the Xfinity Series race last week at Daytona, he ended up running for BJM in the race anyway. Either way, he’s back in a DGM car this week which is a big upgrade for him. Williams hasn’t been a great DFS play this season, but maybe that changes this weekend. Alex Labbe got a top 20 in this car at Darlington in the Spring, while Williams got a top 15 with DGM a year ago at Darlington. There are still some concerns and by no means is Williams a lock, but given the equipment upgrade there’s an argument to be made that he might be $1,000 too cheap for Saturday’s race. While most people flock to Weatherman, I may try to be overweight on Williams but let’s see where he qualifies. Update: Williams will start outside the top 25, but posted top 20 speeds in practice. Not a driver to go heavy on, and I don't think I'd go here in Cash games but I do like him for GPP's.
Core Drivers
Core Drivers will be posted in the NASCAR DFS Discord Channel no later than 2:00pm ET.
Fantasy Alarm is the home of all things Fantasy Sports. Bringing you the best Fantasy Football content all year long. Be sure to also check out the best fantasy promo codes on offer today!