The 2022 NASCAR season marches forward and this week all three series will be competing at Texas Motor Speedway, which if I’m being honest, doesn’t produce the best racing. The Camping World Truck Series will compete Friday night under the lights and you have to wonder how this field shakes out. Does Zane Smith keep up his hot streak and collect his fourth win of the season? Does John Hunter Nemechek continue his domination on Texas Motor Speedway and claim another victory here? Or do we see Cup Series veterans Ross Chastain or Ryan Preece put on a show? The 2022 NASCAR schedule is using this weekend to give the NASCAR Cup Series drivers a less intense week since it’s the NASCAR All-Star Race. It’s a shorter race with a few stage breaks mixed in and they’re competing for $1 million. The last two winners of the All-Star race (Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott) have gone on to claim the NASCAR Cup Series Championships for their respective years.  The All-Star Race format is incredibly wonky and if you need some help understanding how it will play out, check out this tweet from Bob Pockrass…

While I’m playing the All-Star race light, I’m dedicating my usual bankroll to the Truck and Xfinity Series. Their races still matter in terms of points and playoff implications. But Texas is a relatively boring race track. Since its reconfiguration, it has essentially produced one groove and whoever gets the cleanest start tends to run away with the lead unless there’s another caution. This is why you’ll see many NASCAR DFS members complain on social media about limiting Texas to just one race each year. I’m not entirely sure why this track gets a playoff race but to each their own.

Cautions might be tough to gauge. Take a look at how cautions have played out over the last six Texas races:

  • 2021 – 6 cautions for 38 laps
  • 2020 Fall – 10 cautions for 49 laps
  • 2020 Summer – 5 cautions for 26 laps
  • 2019 – 13 cautions for 63 laps
  • 2018 Fall – 7 cautions for 36 laps
  • 2018 Summer – 9 cautions for 44 laps

Obviously, we don’t want a race on the higher end of the spectrum in terms of cautions. That’s fun for no one except the one fool who decided to be very contrarian with their build and takes home five figures. If I had to guess, I’d play the law of averages and say this might be a messy race. I don’t have much data to back it up (except for the numbers above), but we were fortunate to get a fairly clean race at Kansas last week with just four cautions for 19 laps. I’m not entirely sure I trust this field to do it two weeks in a row.

In referencing those six races above once again, the last six winners have all started in the first three rows and the last two winners have come from the pole. Being on the pole isn’t necessarily a blessing. Sure, the last two pole winners have won but there have been a few that dropped out of the lead early and didn’t collect many dominator points. But in general, this is the kind of 1.5-mile race where you can target multiple dominators and the pricing this week certainly allows for that. Once practice and qualifying shake out I’m going to see if I really need to punt for cheap PD starting outside the top 30. Given the one groove of racing here it can be difficult to pass. However, if this becomes a caution fest it will be easier for those value plays to move up. The 2020 Fall race had seven drivers finish in the top 15 that gained at least ten spots of PD. But that race also had ten cautions for 49 laps. Last year’s race saw a handful of drivers gain over ten spots of PD, but we’re also talking the likes of Chase Elliott, Ross Chastain, and Josh Berry. So let’s see who has a good feel for the track and how qualifying shakes out.

Now you’ll notice the driver pool is deeper for tonight’s race. This won’t always be the case but I wanted to cast a very wide net with the driver pool this week because I won’t have much time for updates. So I’ll elaborate on some drivers while also being brief on some teams or a whole range of drivers in general. I’ll try to be in the Discord leading up to the race but my WiFi connection will be very spotty this afternoon, but I’ll do my best to try and accommodate the FAmily.

PRACTICE RESULTS

Driver Pool

John Hunter Nemechek ($10,900) Awfully hard to fade JHN on a low-tire wear, intermediate track. JHN dominated this race last year with 64 lead laps and 27 fastest laps on his way to a win. He also won the Xfinity race here last year and he has a pair of top five finishes at Texas in Xfinity as well. This is a slight discount for JHN and you have to imagine he practices and qualifies well. I’d honestly be surprised if he wasn’t on the pole for tonight’s race.

Zane Smith ($10,600) I love Zane tonight. My head is telling me that the guy who has won three races this year on a variety of tracks should be popular this week. However, my gut is telling me that most of the field will flock to JHN who dominated the Truck and Xfinity Series here last year, or they’ll pivot to Ross Chastain and Ryan Preece. Zane finished sixth here last season and third in the 2020 Fall race at Texas and he’s found his way to the front here as well. He’s been arguably the best driver in the series to start the year with three wins and top tens in every race (even though he was DQ’d at Vegas).

Ross Chastain ($10,400) Seems kind of obvious to mention him. I was heavy on him for Darlington and it backfired, but he was running very well considering he had an average running position of 5th and he led 46 laps. His truck series history at Texas is fine. He didn’t have great luck last year, but I’m mostly looking past any resume here and just buying into Chastain the driver. The fact he isn’t the most expensive driver is probably due to DraftKings downgrading his equipment. But he’s won races for Niece Motorsports in the past and in general, he’s a Cup Series driver running in the trucks. Is the field leveled a bit due to the equipment? Maybe, but I’m going back to the well.

Chandler Smith ($10,000) Smith might be my favorite dark horse play tonight. I’ve been high on Eckes the last couple weeks, but I think if you really want to take some shots on a low-owned, contrarian dominator I really like Smith. He won Vegas earlier in the year and he grabbed a top five at Kansas last week. Now Kansas features more tire wear than Texas, but he finished fifth here last Summer and was running well in the 2020 Fall race having finished sixth in the first two stages before ultimately finishing outside the top 20. I likely won’t play him in Cash games unless he qualifies poorly, but I’ll have plenty of shares of him in GPP’s.

Grant Enfinger ($9,800) Pretty solid resume at Texas for Enfinger. In nine races here he has five finishes inside the top five and eight finishes in the top 12. He’s coming in on a hot streak with five straight top ten finishes and 40+ points in DraftKings in each of those races. If he offers a little PD that’s even better. We haven’t really seen him dominate races though. That’s not typically his style. He tends to play the track position game and does what he can to put himself in a good spot to contend late in races.

Ryan Preece ($9,200) This is just a stupid discount on Preece. He’s run three races this year and he’s put up 40+ points on DraftKings in all three and he hasn’t finished worse than 7th. He’s run five career Truck Series races (three of them coming this year) and he’s finished top ten in all of them including a win at Nashville last year. He’s not in the best equipment but DGR rides aren’t awful. He can get the most out of them and we have to love the discount.

Ty Majeski ($8,900) Majeski is just a solid driver and he’s started qualifying well which does kill the PD upside. But he was fourth at Darlington and second last week at Kansas. I won’t say he’s entirely “safe” because if he qualifies well there’s always the chance he goes backward. However, he’s making the most of his shot with the full-time ride and he’s also Pockrass’ pick to win tonight.

Matt Crafton ($8,700) Crafton’s a relatively safe play just above the average price tag on DraftKings. At just $8,700 you’re getting a relatively decent floor of 35 points which is perfectly fine in Cash games as long as he runs clean. He has a VERY extensive resume at Texas. Prior to last Summer’s race where Crafton finished 20th he had finished in the top ten in 19 races. Yes, he rattled off 19 straight races in the top ten at Texas including two wins and 13 top five finishes. He’s raced here 41 times. I have plenty of faith in a veteran like Crafton this weekend. If he doesn’t get caught in a wreck, which has only happened to him twice here, he should finish well.

Tyler Ankrum ($8,400) He may not be driving in the GMS equipment, but the HRE equipment is pretty solid and both he and Chase Purdy have had some strong runs in these trucks. Ankrum might be better for the “floor” than his ceiling, but he has four top ten finishes at Texas in five races dating back to his time with GMS.

Matt DiBenedetto ($8,000) His best finishes have come on 1.5-mile tracks with a pair of seventh place finishes at Kansas and Vegas. Even when he ran in the Cup Series he managed a couple top 15 finishes including a top ten back in 2020 with the Wood Brothers. If he’s more comfortable on intermediate tracks, then so be it. $8,000 is a decent price to pay for a driver with plenty of experience. You just have to remain optimistic the equipment holds up. Exposure will likely depend on where he starts.

The $7K Tier – I really don’t know how I feel about this tier. I’m guessing most of my roster construction won’t allow me to go here, which may cost me in GPP’s. Derek Kraus ($7,800) is a fine play, but he becomes a difficult play if he starts too high. But in three races at Texas he has finished 13th, 9th, and 11th so if he can just offer some PD he could be optimal on Friday. Todd Bodine ($7,700) is okay for Cash games, but I don’t see much of a ceiling there for GPP’s. Bret Holmes ($7,500) is actually a decent play, but I wish he was under $7K. We’ve seen him bust too many times to be reliable at this price. But if you look at his success at low-tier wear intermediates, he’s finished 8th, 11th, and 37th (DVP) at Vegas. Meanwhile at higher-tire wear intermediates in 2021 he finished 32nd and 27th at Kansas. Texas is on the lower end of the spectrum for tire wear so it may play to his strengths as a driver. Chase Purdy ($7,300) is definitely viable in the Hattori equipment. We’ve seen him rattle off a few top 15 finishes in this ride so he certainly has some appeal. Jack Wood ($7,100) does not need to be on your radar.

Colby Howard ($6,900) The “nice” play of the week and truthfully, he was a nice play last week as well after starting and finishing 11th at Kansas. He’s finished in the top 13 in three straight races and has posted 30+ points on DraftKings in four straight races. He looks to be getting more comfortable in the ride and maybe seeing what his teammate, Derek Kraus, is capable in this equipment is motivating Howard a bit. 

Austin Wayne Self ($6,800) If we’re looking strictly at track history, you have to love AWS this week. It’s hard to believe but in ten races here his worst finish is 22nd while every other finish is in the top 20 and that’s with an accident and mechanical issues mixed in. He’s finished in the top 15 in three straight races here and ownership could be light if common players are looking at recent form. Truthfully, he hasn’t been great lately, but he was top ten at Vegas earlier in the year and overall he seems to do better on low tier-wear tracks. He might be my favorite value play Friday night depending on where he starts.

Tate Fogleman ($6,500) I’ll be brief with Tate because the feelings on him are the same across the industry. If he presents himself as a cheap PD target, then go for it. He busted at Darlington but he rebounded last week at Kansas putting up 38 points on DraftKings. Again, it helped that he started 35th and finished 20th, but that’s why he’s popular in this range. He’s one of the more trustworthy PD targets in the value tier. He’s run Texas three times and wrecked twice while finishing 25th in the race he did finish. 

Timmy Hill ($5,400) I don’t really get the price dip on Timothy G. Hill this week. Was he underwhelming last week? Sure. But even at this price tag if he’s getting me 15-20 points I’m fine with it if he’s allowing me to fit more top plays and dominators in my build. Prior to last week he had finished in the top 25 in every race this season and he has a pair of top 20 finishes at Texas, including one from last year. At a lower-tire wear intermediate track like Vegas, he managed to finish 18th. The price drop could be a bit of a trap, but luckily there are other drivers we can look to spread exposure around with this week.

Tyler Hill ($5,000) I was fairly surprised with Hill’s ownership last week at Kansas. He started 33rd and finished 21st to return 6.6X value. The price hasn’t budged this week and he has a pair of top 20 finishes at Texas in his career. I still need to add the caveat that we only have a small sample size with Hill. But we’ve seen him do well on intermediate tracks and if he’s offering PD like last week then I’ll load up on him again. As a reminder he has two top 20 finishes in three races at Vegas, and he’s finished 21st (last week), 14th, and 16th at Kansas but again, tire wear is different between Kansas and Texas. 

Young’s Motorsports – I’m going to lump three value drivers together for this very reason: you basically need to diversify your exposure in this tier and you can do such a thing with one team. Jesse Little ($5,100) and Spencer Boyd ($4,900) are once again very cheap. Neither performed particularly well at Kansas, but I’m fine getting some exposure this week. However, I’m not sold on Little. His best performances have come on superspeedway-like tracks (Daytona and Atlanta) and a high-variance Darlington race. Last week was probably what we should expect from him most weeks. Boyd wasn’t great last week either, but he can still sneak into the top 30 and get some DFS points through attrition. Truthfully, I’m pretty interested in Garrett Smithley ($5,300) who I don’t anticipate many people turning to Friday night. Smithley doesn’t normally run in the Truck Series. In fact, since 2017, he only has two races in the trucks and he didn’t finish his last race in 2020. But in 2019 he did grab a top 15 finish at Texas running in pretty terrible equipment. I’m also slightly partial to Smithley because he was part of one of my Xfinity lineups last season that helped me win big at Kansas last Fall. If he looks comfortable in practice I’ll fit him in. The Young’s Motorsports trucks aren’t reliable but they can get to 5X with some positive PD and a respectable finish.

Example Lineups

The Example Lineups will be posted (hopefully) in Discord following practice and qualifying.

 

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