The 2023 NASCAR season kicked off in relatively disappointing fashion at Daytona International Speedway. The Craftsman Truck Series ended in a rain delay Friday night because NASCAR decided not to constantly battle the light rain that kept hovering over the track. So Zane Smith won for the second straight year. Then the Xfinity Series race ended under caution when Sam Mayer flipped and caused a big wreck on the final lap. Again, Austin Hill won for the second straight year under caution. And Ricky Stenhouse Jr. won the Daytona 500 under caution on the final lap after another large wreck and he was the leader at the time of the final caution. It’s honestly quite rare that all the races did not end under green flag circumstances. Is it a great look for NASCAR? Not really, but rules are rules. Hopefully we get a much more satisfying weekend of racing as NASCAR begins the West Coast swing as they head to Southern California for some high tire wear racing!

We have a two-day show this week (although now it looks like a one-day show) as NASCAR rolls into Auto Club Speedway with the Production Alliance Group 300 going green this weekend. This is a two-mile D-shaped oval with 14 degrees of banking in the turns, 11 degrees along the front stretch, and three degrees on the back stretch. The unique feature of Auto Club Speedway will be the old surface as this track now grades out as one of the oldest surfaces on the schedule, and that means we’ll gradually see speed fall off as the tires are eaten alive. 

For this weekend’s action we have 150 laps to work with, which gives us about 105 dominator points. Most of my lineups will abide by the one-or-two dominator approach but I will consider three-dominator builds since they’ll be more contrarian, but also very expensive trying to nail a three-dominator approach. It will likely come as no surprise that most of the dominators for this race tend to qualify very well and start up front. In 2022, the three “dominators” all started in the top eight. In that race Cole Custer, Noah Gragson, and Trevor Bayne all led at least 20 laps with at least ten fastest laps as well. In 2020, we had three drivers collect at least 20 fastest laps, but only two led at least 40 laps one of them being Brandon Jones who ended up finishing 30th. 2019 saw this race primarily dominated by Cole Custer and Kyle Busch. Joey Logano ran away with this race in 2018 with 139 laps led and 45 fastest laps, while 2017 saw Logano, Busch, and Kyle Larson scoop up a majority of the dominator points. One thing to note is that fastest laps could be spread out in this race. Just because a driver is collecting the laps led points, doesn’t always mean that they’re grabbing the fastest laps as well. The leader could be on older tires while others go to pit road to get fresher tires and come out running faster laps. At the very least it does feel like a week to build around at least two dominators.

Now this Playbook has been written throughout the week because the weather in Southern California will likely be atrocious on Saturday and with Fontana being a two-mile track where the rain will seep up through the cracks in the track, it’s going to take a long time to properly dry it. So I’m not anticipating practice or qualifying on Saturday and it’s highly likely this race is run after the Cup race on Sunday. This might be important to keep in mind because for the Cup race, if we don’t have practice or qualifying then there won’t be any rubber on the track which makes running the higher line along the wall a little less optimal. But if this race is re-scheduled to after the Cup Series race on Sunday then I anticipate much better track conditions despite the cold weather.

 

NASCAR DFS Driver Pool

Ross Chastain ($11,200; Starting P38)

Here’s the deal with Ross, he ran five races last year in the Xfinity Series and only had two top five finishes. Three of those races were with DGM and he only had one top five. Now those were on road courses, which are usually pretty good for DGM. On the higher tire wear tracks he did okay there. Ross is a very talented driver, but you have to wonder how much he can get out of this ride. Ross will be popular because he’ll be starting in the last row if P&Q is cancelled so there’s obvious PD to target, which makes him a fine play for Cash games, but I would maybe aim to be a little underweight in Tournaments just to have a little leverage.

Tyler Reddick ($11,100; Starting P24)

Reddick won’t offer as much PD as Chastain, but he’ll still start outside the top 20 and there’s clear win equity here. Last year he took Big Machine to victory lane at Texas and now he’ll look to get Sam Hunt Racing there as well. Reddick had a very fast car in last year’s Cup Series race at Fontana, but a late wreck ruined his day. He should be able to work the upper groove and manage his tires better than most of the field. In two career Xfinity races at Auto Club he’s finished fourth and seventh and posted driver rating scores over 110 in each race. Similarly, he’s run very well at Darlington and Homestead where he has two career wins and if P&Q is cancelled then he’ll at least have the Cup Series race Sunday afternoon to treat as practice.

Cole Custer ($10,900; Starting P8)

Custer will likely be one of the most popular of the dominator candidates. He stated on the front row of last year’s race and won, collecting 36.2 dominator points along the way. He also won this race in 2019, besting Kyle Busch, while collecting (what would have been) 22.1 dominator points under DraftKings’ current scoring. Custer is probably the best driver on high tire wear tracks among the full-time Xfinity Series drivers. Stewart-Haas Racing has a habit of being very strong on this type of track as Kevin Harvick has won plenty of times throughout his career on this type of track. Custer also has a win at Darlington (although it came due to Denny Hamlin’s car failing post-race tech) back in 2019, and he was runner-up in 2018 as well. He also has a win and a pair of runner-up finishes at Homestead. He will be popular, but you can build around him this weekend and find ways to differentiate your build elsewhere.

John Hunter Nemechek ($10,600; Starting P2)

JHN will find the Playbook most weeks given the equipment and his driver pedigree. He came very close to winning Daytona last week, but it was Austin Hill who had the lead at the time of the caution on the final lap. He’s raced Auto Club twice at the Xfinity level in his career and both times he finished outside the top 25. But he does have a win at Kansas back in 2018 and he led 135 laps last year at Richmond on his way to a runner-up finish. Historically he’s run very well at Darlington including a win in the Truck Series last year and we should assume he’ll be one of the favorites for Saturday’s race from Southern California.

Justin Allgaier ($10,400; Starting P3)

Surprisingly Allgaier only has one top five finish in 13 races at Auto Club, but he should start close to the front to contend for early dominator points. Additionally, he’s great on high tire wear tracks having won the last two Spring Darlington races and he’s always good at Dover and Richmond. He may be overlooked in this range for more PD-friendly DFS targets, but getting leverage on Allgaier is never a bad thing. I won’t write up his teammates, Josh Berry and Sam Mayer, but they do fall into the same pricing tier and offer more PD. But Allgaier has the potential to dominate this race and win, but let’s also consider Berry a dark horse to win.

Brandon Jones ($9,200; Starting P10)

Jones is always a high-risk play, but I think many people will look at his results and be turned off. He started on the pole for this race three years ago and led the first 73 laps and then ran in the top ten into the third stage. Around lap 50 he had contact with Daniel Hemric and unfortunately he ran two laps with awful tire rub. So by the time he could get the car to pit road for a change, he lost the leaders and he ended up finishing 30th. Last year, he was running in the top five with two laps to go before, once again, contact with Daniel Hemric dropped him back and again he finished outside the top 30. So really, if he can avoid Hemric he should have a good day. Jones doesn’t have a win at Homestead, but prior to last year’s race he did finish in the top eight in five straight races and he does have a win on his resume at Darlington.

Daniel Hemric ($9,000; Starting P35)

I get it. He’s not very good, and he tends to get caught up in wrecks and he’s at fault for some of them. Last week at Daytona? Not so much his fault as he was minding his own business and was still taken out. But I try to wipe the slate clean with each race, but that’s not to say he’s not risky. In four races at Auto Club he’s never finished outside the top 12 and he’s led ten laps in each of the last two races here. The results were kind of the same at the old Atlanta setup and he was actually in line to win with the best car in the summer of 2021 at Atlanta before Kyle Busch took him out, and Busch even owned up to that one and said he screwed Hemric out of a win that day. Hemric has also finshed in the top five in three of his last four races at Homestead and he’s also finished sixth or better in five of six races at Richmond. Hemric will likely start pretty far back and offer plenty of PD for this race. For the sake of not writing up every driver in the field, I’ll briefly mention Sheldon Creed and Parker Kligerman. Both drivers offer PD (assuming P&Q is cancelled) but I don’t anticipate significant ownership on either. A lot of people will pay up for Chastain and Reddick for the win equity and by default, they may have to skip over this range. If you want to avoid Creed and his awful luck, I wouldn’t blame you.

Riley Herbst ($8,300; Starting P6)

In keeping with the theme of SHR generally being a smart team regarding high tire wear tracks, Herbst deserves some recognition as well. There isn’t as much win equity here as there is with Custer, but he’s done well here. In two races he’s finished second and ninth and he’s never finished worse than 11th in four races at Homestead. Even if you look at a track like Richmond, while shorter, it does feature some tire wear and he has back-to-back top five finishes there. He’s probably a driver that we’d prefer some PD out of. As it stands right now, the ceiling is a bit capped but I’m fine playing him in Tournaments. It’s also his birthday weekend so he has that narrative going for him.

Ryan Sieg ($7,700; Starting P16)

Sieg has almost no win equity and if he starts inside the top 12 then his ceiling is capped because that’s probably where he’s capable of finishing. Ideally we need more PD out of him. Historically he’s a good enough driver that manages his tires well on these tracks. Over his last three races at Auto Club he’s finished 10th, 4th, and 11th. In five of his last six races at Darlington he’s finished 11th or better. Even at Kansas which has some tire wear he’s finished in the top ten in five of his last six races. So like I said, we know where he’s capable of finishing, but we need PD out of him to elevate his potential for DFS. Without knowing where everyone will start this weekend, I’d probably just utilize him in Cash games.

Kaz Grala ($7,400; Starting P29)

Grala will be in the 26-car for Sam Hunt Racing and he might be able to work with Tyler Reddick for this race. The big appeal with Grala will be the PD as he’ll start outside the top 25. He’s a pretty good driver, but does to tend wreck and kill DFS lineups at the most inopportune time. He raced here a year ago and finished 25th with Alpha Prime Racing. Sam Hunt Racing’s equipment is a little better so I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt. He’s mostly a road course driver that doesn’t get too much action on intermediates so proceed with caution.

Brett Moffitt ($7,200; Starting P25)

Moffitt had a good run last week at Daytona, he just didn’t get a satisfying finish. But he’s still a good driver that’s in equipment that I think he can get the most out of. He doesn’t have outstanding results at Auto Club, but he does have a pair of top 20’s. He’s also finished in the top 13 in three of four races at Darlington and he managed to finish seventh at Homestead two years ago. He’s a mid-tier driver because of the equipment and there’s a little variance to his game, but I’m optimistic the AM Racing Team can give him a ride that he can finish in the top 15 with.

Alex Labbe ($6,100; Starting P28)

It looks like Labbe will start outside the top 25 which bodes well for us because he has finishes of 24th, 13th, and 19th in three appearances at Auto Club. He’s also never finished worse than 19th at Darlington so I am of the mindset he can get a top 20 here, maybe even a top 15. After failing to qualify for Daytona last week, I’m guessing he’s eager to get behind the wheel and put up a good performance. But for this race he’ll in the 28-car for RSS which could potentially be even better equipment than DGM, so I love this play for Tournaments. Labbe is probably as low as I want to go if I’m building a lineup that can potentially get six drivers in the top 15. The drivers listed below him are cheaper, value plays that maybe get you a little PD and a top 25 finish. Jeffrey Earnhardt is a good pivot in this range, but Labbe's equipment is better.

Bayley Currey ($5,400; Starting P36)

There isn’t much to love about Currey aside from the fact he’d start in the second-to-last row if P&Q is cancelled. He’s raced here three times and doesn’t have a top 30, but he has a pair of top 25 finishes at Homestead and Darlington. To his credit he usually starts further up so we can jump on the PD if he keeps the car clean. 

Joey Gase ($5,100; Starting P34)

Joey Gase is another value driver we can consider assuming he’ll start toward the rear. He did manage to grab a top 20 finish here last year, which is probably his ceiling in this equipment. He’s not going to be a great play in this range, all the value plays are risky. But if looking to spend up on a few drivers, you’ll need to find a value punt but luckily the bottom dwellers are offering PD for this race at least.

Timmy Hill ($4,700; Starting P37)

Hill will be viewed as basically a value free square if P&Q is cancelled. It would mean he’d likely start second-to-last ahead of Chastain so there isn’t much negative PD he can provide. He’s not in the greatest equipment and he doesn’t have the great results here (only one top 30 finish in four races). Ideally you’re hoping he can maybe move up and finish 27th or 28th if other cars wreck out. But Hill isn’t an idiot, he’s just in bad equipment. Perfectly fine in all formats, but I’d cap ownership in Tournaments at 25% probably.

NASCAR DFS Core Plays

This week’s Core Plays will be published once we know the fate of this race and the starting order with it likely being moved to Sunday.