NASCAR DFS Playbook Pit Boss 250: A.J. Allmendinger To Continue Road Course Dominance

The NASCAR Xfinity Series returns to the Lone Star State for the Pit Boss 250. The Xfinity Series, like the Cup Series, has been incorporating more road courses onto the calendar in recent years and COTA marks the first of 2023 for all three series. We’re also seeing some familiar names in this race. A.J. Allmendinger and Ty Gibbs previously dominated road courses in the Xfinity Series the last couple years and both will be running Saturday’s Xfinity Series race as will William Byron who has won two of the last three races in the Cup Series. With some rule changes at road courses we’re in line for some exciting road course racing so let’s dig into the NASCAR DFS top plays and strategies for Saturday afternoon’s action.

As mentioned in the Truck Series Playbook, this is a long road course measuring in at over 3.4 miles with 20 turns and that recognizable steep climb on the front straightaway, followed by the esses, and another long straightaway on the back half of the track. This track was originally built for F1 races and it certainly draws a massive crowd for that series, but NASCAR is making its third straight trip to COTA. Now the new rules in place are that we won’t see cautions at the end of each stage. They will just continue racing, but stage points will still be awarded. This probably benefits the better teams and they’ll likely move to the front with ease. But this also allows the leader to stretch out their lead with clean air. Track position will be more important for this race, but I also wouldn’t entirely fade the back half of the field. It’s going to be a long race despite the lack of laps and drivers will have plenty of time to move up through the field. For Cash games you’ll want to take the same approach as always on road courses and target drivers offering PD that can finish very well. In addition, I’m perfectly fine playing A.J. Allmendinger from the pole. We’ll touch on him shortly but he’s just so dominant on these tracks that you’ll start him regardless of his position. It’s feasible he leads the entire race and wins with ease. For Tournaments, you will need the winner as well as a handful of drivers that finish well with PD at their disposal. There is a lot of chalk for all three races so don’t hesitate to get a little weird with your own lineup builds.

Pit Boss 250 Practice Notes

NASCAR DFS Driver Pool

A.J. Allmendinger ($10,600; Starting P1)

I could be lazy and just say “You play Dinger on road courses,” but I feel like I’d be doing you all a disservice. So I’m going to just list his wins on road courses the last couple years with Kaulig in the Xfinity Series: the Charlotte Roval (2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022), Mid-Ohio (2021), Portland (2022), COTA (2022), and Indy’s Road Course (2022). Those are just his wins with Kaulig Racing the past few years. I’m not including the numerous top fives he has or his previous wins with other organizations in the past. He’s the best road course driver in the field by far and is playable in all formats.

William Byron ($10,400; Starting P9)

We lucked out with Byron’s round two qualifying time being disallowed because he was short cutting the track so now we get a little PD out of him. He flashed a ton of speed in practice and was just behind Allmendinger. Probably wouldn’t have been viable to play both if they ended up starting up front together, but now it’s a little more viable with Byron starting P9. I’m perfectly fine playing both together in Cash games and GPP’s, but Allmendinger may have enough of a lead by the time Byron gets up to second and from there, Byron may need a caution to catch Dinger.

Ty Gibbs ($10,100; Starting P3)

Gibbs’ debut at COTA last year was rather forgettable. He started on the pole and finished 15^th for a sub-par DFS performance. That is always the risk when playing the polesitter at a road course. That’s not to say he’s terrible on road courses though. Remember, he won his debut race in the Xfinity Series at Daytona’s Road Course in 2021 and followed that up with a win at Watkins Glen in the same year. And last year he won Road America. So he’s clearly done enough on road courses to warrant consideration for this race and he’ll be in great equipment for Saturday’s action regardless of starting position.

Sheldon Creed ($9,200; Starting P4)

One of these days we’re going to hit big on Creed. I don’t think it’s this weekend because of the quality of competition. But I’ll be playing him this weekend in a few Happy Hour lineups. He tends to generate his own bad luck at times, but there was a lot of promise on road courses last year. He grabbed top tens at COTA and Watkins Glen a year ago. He was running third at Indy’s Road Course last year with 16 laps to go when he was spun by Ross Chastain which dropped Creed way back and he ultimately finished 23^rd. Then at Portland, Creed easily had a top five car. He was incredibly fast in practice. Unfortunately, the weather conditions were such a mess for that race that everybody was spinning all over the track. AJ Allmendinger won the race and even he drove his car off the track a couple times. Creed was running seventh with about 20 laps to go before getting spun. Then he re-fired and drove right into someone’s rear. Like I said, he tends to create his own bad luck. But he needs to start producing. His teammate now has three wins this season and five over the last two years, while Creed has none on his resume. It’s time to put up or shut up. He does have a handful of top five finishes from his time in the Truck Series. This is strictly a deep field Tournament play.

Josh Berry ($9,000; Starting P15)

Very playable spot for Berry. He doesn’t have a ton of win equity at his disposal given that Allmendinger and Gibbs are in the race. However, there is room for him to move up and gain some PD with a solid finish. If he finishes seventh that’s 45 points without any dominator points and he has the equipment and the talent to do that and he’s currently plugged into my Cash lineup. Berry grabbed top five finishes last year on road courses like Portland and Road America while still finishing top ten at Watkins Glen and the Roval. For a pivot you can also consider his teammate, Sam Mayer, who is $100 cheaper and starting P14 but there’s more of a safety net with Berry.

Chandler Smith ($8,600; Starting P27)

We really don’t have much to go off of with Chandler Smith for this particular race, but he’s quietly been knocking on the door of his first win in the Xfinity Series. He rattled off three straight top five finishes on the West coast swing a couple weeks ago, and he almost won at Vegas. His experience on road courses in the Truck Series was minimal, but in 2022 he finished fifth at COTA, fifth at Sonoma, and sixth at Mid-Ohio. This is a loaded field, but he will have AJ Allmendinger as a teammate this week to pick his brain and possibly gain an edge for Saturday’s race.

Kaz Grala ($7,900; Starting P20)

Grala will get plenty of attention this week because of his reputation as a road course specialist. I’ll say to tread carefully. I almost feel more comfortable playing him in the Truck race. His road course resume is a little all over the place. In 2018 with Fury Race Cars, he grabbed three top 15 finishes at Watkins Glen, Road America, and the Roval. In 2019 he finished fifth at Road America, his lone appearance on a road course that year. 2020 he was top five again at Road America with RCR but finished 31^st at the Roval. In 2021 he was 18^th at Road America with Jordan Anderson Racing and that was his lone road race that year. In 2022 he finished fifth at Watkins Glen but was outside the top 30 at Indy’s Road Course and the Roval. I’m perfectly fine playing him in Tournaments because the ceiling is very high for him. I’d be cautious when building Cash lineups though.

Brandon Jones ($7,700; Starting P26)

Jones was already too cheap and now we add in the fact he’s starting outside the top 25? He’s playable in all formats now. His results have not been up to JRM’s expectations when you consider what Noah Gragson was able to do in this car the last couple years. Jones is eligible to win a couple races each year, but he’s been a bit of a dud since leaving Joe Gibbs Racng. So that price tag has dropped immensely and the good news is that the equipment is good enough to navigate its way through the field. He finished 18^th and 17^th in the two previous races at COTA and for DFS we probably want a top 15 out of him, but we know he’s capable of a top ten.

Brett Moffitt ($7,400; Starting P28)

I’ve been pretty pleased with what I’ve seen from Moffitt so far this year. I had a bet on him to win last week at Atlanta, but he finished sixth. Obviously didn’t hit the win but I liked the process in betting him 50-1. But this week he starts outside the top 25 and is pretty affordable. Moffitt finished 7^th and 12^th in the two previous races at COTA with Our Motorsports and he finished 16^th at Indy last year before getting canned by the team. But with AM Racing, he’s had a good start to the season with this small team. Road courses aren’t typically his specialty, but there’s upside here from this starting spot.

Alex Labbe ($7,300; Starting P23)/Josh Bilicki ($5,700; Starting P24)

I remember last year for COTA I was all excited about DGM’s drivers for this race and then two of them had to go and qualify inside the top ten. Bilicki, to his own credit finished in the top 20 at Road America and Watkins Glen but finished outside the top 30 at COTA and the Roval. But if I had to choose one it’s probably Labbe. This is the kind of track he’s very comfortable at and he showed decent speed in practice and qualifying despite starting outside the top 20. This is where I wanted DGM to start a year ago, rather than inside the top ten. There’s arguably no win equity but there’s value in these two DGM drivers for Tournaments.

Miguel Paludo ($7,200; Starting P18)

Paludo is a road course specialist that’s brought on by Jr. Motorsports from time to time for the occasional road race. Surprisingly in six road races the last two years, he only has two top tens so he’s not a slam dunk by any means despite the equipment. Similar to Grala, I’m fine mixing him into Tournament builds but would go light in Cash games.

Ryan Sieg ($7,100; Starting P31)

The fact that Sieg is cheaper than Alex Labbe is a little odd. Time and time again last year, Sieg started deep in the field and moved his way up. Now the stage breaks may have helped him, but he gained a ton of PD on road courses last year. At COTA, he started P35 and finished 11^th. At Portland he started P27 and finished 16^th. Road America? Started P27 and finished tenth. Watkins Glen? Started P34 and finished 13^th. He even grabbed a top ten at the Roval after starting P17. Again, his ceiling might be lowered just slightly without the stage breaks. But this is the Xfinity Series and an uptick in cautions should surprise nobody and allow the field to reset.

Anthony Alfredo ($6,800; Starting P29)

At a certain point I need to acknowledge how steady Alfredo has been since Daytona. Over his last four races he has four finishes in the top 20 including back-to-back top 15 finishes at Phoenix and Atlanta. He’s doing this in BJ McLeod Motorsports equipment. I can’t wrap my head around it but he’s making the most of his demotion to a smaller team. With Our Motorsports a year ago he grabbed top 20’s at COTA, Indy, Watkins Glen, and the Roval. We’re getting a price drop on Alfredo and he’s offering plenty of PD so I’m fine utilizing him in all formats.

Carson Hocevar ($5,300; Starting P17)

I don’t have too many notes on Hocevar, but he will be running both races today. He wasn’t fast in practice but I’m chalking it up to him getting used to the car since he normally runs the Truck Series. But he’s getting extra track time with both races and regardless of the different equipment, it’s still beneficial. What I do like is that Hocevar went out and laid down a decent qualifying effort which does show me that he probably was taking it easy in practice. I know we’re seeking value in Cash games, but I don’t know if I’d go here in Cash games given the starting spot. I love this play for Tournaments though. In this range you can consider Parker Retzlaff for $100 who offers more PD, but I’m not in love with playing too much Retzlaff on a new track for the rookie.

Kyle Sieg ($5,000; Starting P38)

This car was awful in practice and qualifying and I couldn’t quite figure out why. However, the appeal with Sieg is the same for Daniel Dye in the Truck Series race. He starts dead last and can’t give you negative points. He may very well be awful at road courses but we at least know the equipment isn’t trash. This car is certainly capable of a top 20 as we saw at Auto Club and Vegas. However, they either whiffed on the setup and he’ll need some carnage to move up, or he just has no idea how to run on a road course. If you punt this low just hope that he somehow finishes 30^th because that’ll be 20 points on DraftKings.

Brad Perez ($4,800; Starting P30)

Brad “Bread” Perez is the cheapest I’d go today in Tournaments or Cash games. Yes I’m considering him eligible in 50/50’s and Double Up’s. He won’t be in my lineup personally, but if you need to go this low in those contests, you can roll with Perez. It’s risky but he really saves you a ton of salary and I think he can gain maybe seven or eight spots of PD. It’s a very small sample size, but in the Truck Series last year he started P32 at COTA and finished 20^th. At Sonoma he also started P32 and finished 22^nd. The Emerling-Gase ride is a bit of a concern, but if he survives the war of attrition he could pay off and all we really want or need is a top 25 finish from him.

NASCAR DFS Core Plays

Related Links:

• NASCAR DFS Playbook: XPEL 225