The 2023 NASCAR schedule bids adieu to Bristol Dirt and while it has become a polarizing track among NASCAR fans, the general consensus among the NASCAR DFS and betting community is that it’s not everyone’s favorite. Is it entertaining at times? Yeah, maybe. Would I like to see it live in person? Yes. But it presents itself on the schedule as a track that I play lightly for DFS. And while I was profitable for Bristol Dirt, I am very excited for this weekend’s action. All three series will be running Martinsville Speedway this weekend and this is one of my favorite races for DFS every year. The Paperclip provides plenty of dominator points to account for when offering DFS analysis and who could forget the Hail Melon during last year’s Fall race at Martinsville that catapulted Ross Chastain into the Cup Series Championship Race at Phoenix? This short track will be much better to read for DFS contests this weekend, so let’s dive into the NASCAR DFS Top Plays for Friday night’s Craftsman Truck Series race from Martinsville.

 

Martinsville Speedway is a short, 0.5-mile, flat track appropriately nicknamed The Paperclip because if you look at it overhead, it looks like as such. Friday’s Truck Series race will have 200 laps broken into 50-50-100 lap segments. If we account for cautions we’ll probably have about 110-125 dominator points to target, which is much more than we’re used to for the Truck Series. Track history will be what we look at ahead of Friday’s action. Once we have the practice data and know who is fast, in addition to the starting lineup, I will post updates in RED to help you finalize your own lineups.

In looking at previous Martinsville races, it’s easy to see that we should mostly be building two-dominator lineups. The abundance of laps means there are more to go around and with this being a half-mile track, the first 100 laps of this race are only going to be 50 miles total. So we could be looking at an early dominator in addition to a stage three dominator as well. Prior to 2022, the Truck Series only ran Martinsville in the Fall. That changed and now they only run the race in the Spring. So last Spring’s race saw William Byron win the race after starting P32. He led 94 laps with 27 fastest laps. Ben Rhodes and Zane Smith are two other drivers that finished in the top ten while leading at least 40 laps and collecting at least 25 fastest laps. In the Fall of 2021, we saw two drivers lead at least 60 laps (Todd Gilliland and Zane Smith), while the Fall race in 2020 saw three drivers lead at least 35 laps and Sheldon Creed managed to lead 20 as well. So the name of the game is simple, we want to collect as many dominator points as possible for our Cash and GPP lineups and get three-to-four other drivers that can go out and grab strong finishes with some position differential as well.

Cautions do tend to play a pretty big role here and it shouldn’t surprise anyone if there was at least one race this weekend that required several restarts due to late cautions. This is a short, flat track so speeds aren’t incredibly high. However, with little room for maneuvering, NASCAR is quick to pull the trigger on a vehicle in the wall or a spin because it’s a safety issue with 30+ vehicles on a short track. In each of the last four races at Martinsville we’ve seen at least 11 cautions for 70 laps, and that’s where we’ll lose some of the fastest laps. But still, we’ll want as many dominator points as possible but we aware of the excessive cautions for this race. The last piece of advice I will give before diving into the driver pool is to be mindful of not targeting too many PD plays starting in the back. Back markers tend to get lapped easily here and the drivers in the best equipment are more likely to stay on the lead lap.

NASCAR DFS Driver Pool

Kyle Busch ($13,000)

Yes this is unfortunately a Kyle Busch slate, but given how many dominator points there are this is a great price tag on KB51. Do I think KB51 laps the field as referenced in the title? No, but that would be amazing. It wouldn't surprise anyone if he flat out dominated this race and won it with ease. And I think he should probably be priced up to roughly $14,000-$15,000 given how many dominator points are available. The Xfinity Series is running one of their Dash 4 Cash races and Cup drivers are not allowed to run in those. So if Cup drivers want extra practice or time on track, they have to run the Truck race. Insert Kyle Busch and Ross Chastain ($11,000). I’m going to include both in this section because I don’t want to waste valuable space on two Cup drivers. Both are in play obviously based on talent alone. Busch has run two races in this series so far this year finishing first and second at Vegas and COTA. In his last five Truck Series races Busch has finished third or better in all five with a pair of wins. It’s worth mentioning he’s only raced at Martinsville in the Trucks just twice in the last six years. But there’s obvious win equity here and he’s previously led over 120 laps here three times. KB51 also has two wins here from the Cup Series during his time with JGR. If you do roster Busch, it’ll likely be difficult to go to Zane Smith as a secondary dominator. You are likely playing Busch with the assumption that he dominates and wins this race or you consider a secondary dominator like Enfinger who won’t cost you as much as Smith or Rhodes. Chastain will be back behind the wheel for Niece Motorsports at the track where his move at last Fall’s Cup Series race will be the topic of many conversations. He hasn’t had the greatest performances so far this year in the Trucks and even last year his results were all over the spectrum. But there’s some win equity here, just not as much as Busch. He hasn’t run the Trucks here since 2019, but that year he did finish top five in both races leading over 50 laps in each contest. I do probably prefer him more in GPP’s unless he’s offering a hefty amount of PD. But Busch will likely be viable in all formats regardless of starting position. Update: Busch qualified P2 and Chastain qualified P25. Chastain is an easy lock in Cash games. Busch is playable in all formats given the win equity and potential to dominate the race.

Zane Smith ($10,600)

To no surprise, here we are once again landing on Zane Smith in the Truck Series Playbook. Zane already has two wins and a runner-up finish on his resume this year, and he’s looking to score his third win of 2023 at Martinsville, a track he previously won at in 2021. In three races here he’s finished 1st, 3rd, and 9th and he’s led at least 20 laps in each race so he’ll be an easy DFS favorite ahead of practice and qualifying. If we’re looking at more “flat track” data, he’s finished top five in all three appearances at Phoenix including a win last Fall, and he finished third at IRP last summer. That’s not the greatest comparison because IRP and Phoenix don’t have the tight turns of Martinsville, but in general this is a race he should excel at. Update: Zane qualified on the pole and is as good a play as ever. I may prefer to play him in Tournaments because you can easily play him, Chastain, and Majeski and still plug in some other great plays as well.

Ty Majeski ($10,200)

I've written up Majeski previously and he just hasn't pulled through. He hasn't been awful, but he just hasn't won yet, and while the truck has had speed, we haven't seen him collect an abundance of lead lap points. He's scored a good amount of fastest laps for a driver that hasn't led too many. He started P16 in this race a year ago and finished 11th but expectations are a bit more lofty. The good news is that he looks very fast in practice and even Bob Pockrass picked him to win tonight's race.

Ben Rhodes ($9,900)

Rhodes is only 26 years old, but he’s already raced at Martinsville a dozen times in his career. Now there was a time when the Truck Series ran Martinsville twice a year, and while that doesn’t happen anymore, Rhodes is still hungry to earn himself a trophy in the form of a grandfather clock. He has seven top ten finishes here, but more importantly he has four finishes in the top five in his last six races and on three separate occasions he’s led over 40 laps here. It hasn’t been an electric start for Rhodes just yet, but he can find his form here. He’s not my favorite dominator candidate heading into this race, but if he qualifies well that could change. Update: Starting P3 so he's mostly a Tournament play with Smith and Busch starting ahead of him. There's still dominator potential here.

Matt Crafton ($8,900)

As I’ve mentioned numerous times, Crafton doesn’t carry the win equity that he once did, but he can still be a great Tournament play like he was last week when he started P8 and finished fourth at Bristol. This Friday will mark Crafton’s 40th race at Martinsville. That kind of experience and longevity is insane. Personally, I like the heavy experience. One thing that concerns me about younger drivers at Martinsville or drivers getting their first taste of the Paperclip is that it’s easy to bully them for track position. There’s a lot of bumping at Martinsville and it’s not an easy track for younger drivers. Crafton has plenty of experience here and won’t be shy about moving someone out of the way if he needs to. In 39 races here he has 23 top ten finishes, 11 top fives, and two career wins. And even over the last couple years he’s finished 7th, 5th, and 5th so while I normally don’t love targeting Crafton because he’s past his prime, this is a week I think a top five is very live.

Grant Enfinger ($8,700)

Always one of my favorite dark horses to win a race. And I should probably stop slapping that label on him, but it’s true in my heart at least. In five of his last seven races here, he’s finished eighth or better including a win in 2020 where he led 49 laps. He’s also coming off a solid top five performance at Bristol last week and I expect him to run well this weekend so long as he stays clean. He also has a win at Richmond from 2020 which is a flat, 0.75-mile track although that track accounts for higher tire wear. But he’s also looked great at Phoenix and he won IRP last year. Like I said previously, not the greatest comparisons since Martinsville is unique in its own right, but I like him potentially as a secondary dominator if he qualifies well.

Nick Sanchez ($8,500)

I think we can just assume Sanchez is going to show up with speed this weekend and while it’ll be his Truck Series debut at Martinsville, he did finish seventh at this track in the Xfinity Series last Fall with Big Machine. And truthfully, Sanchez has plenty of experience on shorter, flat tracks throughout his career in ARCA. The truck will be fast thanks to the affiliation with Kyle Busch Motorsports and he showed a few weeks ago that he can go out and dominate a race. Through six races he’s qualified on the front row three times so we shouldn’t sleep on him as a potential dominator at this track if he qualifies well. Update: Sanchez wasn't fast in practice but the broadcast did acknowledge he's mostly just getting accustomed to the track. He'll start P19 (I think) and assuming there's speed in the truck (as there has been all year) he should be able to move up based on pure speed.

Tanner Gray ($8,200)

Gray is kind of an intriguing Tournament play. He qualified inside the top 20 in every race this year with the exception of last week at Bristol because his truck overheated in the heat race. But he’s had some great runs this year with a runner-up at Daytona and top ten finishes at COTA and Bristol Dirt. Now he comes to a track that he doesn’t have a ton of success at in Martinsville. He finished third here in the Fall of 2021 but in his other three races here he’s finished 20th, 21st, and 31st. But assuming it’s a clean race he’s a driver with top ten upside, but it just depends on where he qualifies and if there’s enough PD to justify playing him. His brother, Taylor Gray ($7,400), is also in consideration with a top ten here in the same race that Tanner finished third. Update: Tanner posted some good practice speeds especially in the long run, but he'll start P9. Taylor starts outside the top 20 so is probably a safe PD play in his price range. I wouldn't go heavy on either.

Jake Garcia ($8,000)

We’ve been pretty spot on with Garcia this year including his top ten at Vegas that made us all a good amount of money. Overall, he’s had a good year on this mid-level team. However, DraftKings completely skipped pricing him in the $7K range and went right to $8,000 after last week’s race. He’s finished top 20 in all the races he’s run and he finished fifth at Texas and sixth at Bristol Dirt last week. Martinsville is a new track for him and as is the case, that’s a concern. But we’ve also seen a very nice ceiling from Garcia with three top tens in five races this year. He grabbed top 20 finishes last year at Phoenix and Richmond, but of course, we want to see how he does in practice and where he qualifies. He failed to qualify for this race a year ago, but that won’t be an issue this time around so we should have him on our DFS radar once again. We may not land on him much this week because of the price tag, but we’ll let qualifying determine that. Update: Garcia qualified P18. He'd still be an okay play if he was $1,000 cheaper. $8,000 could be tough for him to pay off starting from this spot so I wouldn't go too heavy here.

Chase Purdy ($7,900)

It’s been a season of highs and lows for Purdy but overall he’s given some of his best results as a driver with the move to Kyle Busch Motorsports. He finished top ten at Vegas and Atlanta and finished second at Texas. Now he does have some bad results at COTA and Bristol Dirt, but I think he can get a good run here. He’s not exactly a spring chicken as he has experience here, and additionally this is the best equipment he’s ever run at Martinsville so I don’t want to dwell on track history. Exposure will depend on where he qualifies, but as of Friday morning I have him in my driver pool. Update: Purdy qualified inside the top ten so he's more of a Tournament play tonight.

William Sawalich ($7,000)

Sawalich offers some intrigue and potential in TRD’s long-term plans. He’s a bit of a commodity, but still incredibly young. He doesn’t turn 17 until October. But he’ll make his debut with TRICON this weekend. Yes, I’m concerned he’ll easily get pushed around for track position, but the equipment is above average and he finished 13th in the Xfinity Series race at Phoenix earlier this year and he already has a win under his belt in the ARCA series. There’s talent here, but raw talent at that. He’s worth consideration based on the equipment alone.

Hailie Deegan ($6,800)

The price tag is still suppressed for Deegan but keep in mind she is in great equipment and has finished 19th in both her previous races at Martinsville. I’d say she’s probably good to finish around there once again. She’s also coming in with momentum having finished 16th or better in four straight races. More impressive to me aside from her top 20’s here is that she’s managed to stay on the lead lap here so we can ride the momentum this week again, so long as she doesn’t qualify too high. Update: Not a great qualifying effort from Deegan as she'll start 27th. That may actual draw more exposure to her so I may end up being underweight on her. Can she still grab a top 20? Yes, absolutely. But given the heavy ownership that may flock to her I'll find a pivot in this range.

Dean Thompson ($6,300)

Thompson made an unapproved adjustment and he will start, and be scored, from the rear for Friday's race after not posting a qualifying lap. There isn't a ton of confidence here, but he'll start pretty far back which establishes a good floor for him. The equipment is decent and there's certainly a path to 20-25 fantasy points. I'd prefer him more in Cash games as a value play as he didn't sound overly confident when he was interviewed about his comfort level at this track.

Timmy Hill ($6,200)

I hope you’re not sick of me acknowledging Timmy Hill yet… Because I’m not. Hill didn’t have a great showing at Bristol Dirt after he finished 25th, but he’s always going to be a value play for us. There’s basically no win equity unless he’s at a superspeedway, and even then he’s still a longshot. But so far this year he’s finished at least 25th in all five Truck Series races and I expect that trend to continue this week at Martinsville. He’s finished 24th or better in six straight races here, including three top 15 finishes in his last four races here. Now some chaos likely came into play for him, but he’s still one of the more reliable drivers in this price range. If he starts outside the top 30, you have to assume he doesn’t finish on the lead lap. He’ll likely get lapped early. But this is a long race and if he runs clean, others will wreck out, and he still moves up. But even double-digit cautions could reset the field and allow him to not fall too far down.

Stephen Mallozzi ($5,600)

Stephen Mallozzi gets behind a pretty respectable truck this weekend and if you’re familiar with the fantasy NASCAR community you’ll know he’s running the paint scheme for Stacking Dennys and Win The Race will be a sponsor on the truck as well. Mallozzi may only get behind the wheel for a couple races each year, but it was kind of cool to see the DFS/fantasy/gambling community pull together to get him sponsorship for this truck. This equipment is arguably top 25, maybe even top 20 as Josh Reaume has had good results in this truck this year. But keep a level head and don’t go overboard with exposure on Mallozzi. But he’s got a great story to rally around and could make for a nice PD value play. Update: Not a great qualifying effort from Mallozzi, but keep in mind he was really just trying to get comfortable with the track and the equipment. He can't get you negative fantasy points, but if he can just run a clean race he can still move up and improve his position while others ahead of him wreck out.

Lawless Alan ($5,500)

Nothing fancy here with Lawless Alan. The truth is that he’s probably a guy that finishes 20th if the race is run clean and maybe he has top 15 upside. He’s run four races this year with top 20 finishes at Vegas, COTA, and Texas. He wrecked out of Atlanta, but that’s the nature of Atlanta nowadays. And in last year’s race at Martinsville he finished 20th there. This will be a tight race with a lot of traffic on this short track so that does concern me with a driver like Alan. But I’m optimistic he can grab another top 20 and if he can get some PD then we’ll take it for Tournaments. Update: P20 qualifying effort for Alan. Still a good option in Tournaments.

Conner Jones ($4,800)

Jones is very young and I don’t care where he starts, I’m only playing him in Tournaments. Will it be tempting to play him in Cash games if he starts outside the top 30? Sure, but he’ll be running the 66-truck for Thorsport this week and I’d be stunned if he qualifies that far back. Jones is from Fredericksburg, VA which is a four-hour drive from Martinsville so I expect him to have some friends and family in attendance. He’s only 17 years old, but has experience in the ARCA series running short, flat tracks like Phoenix and Iowa to an extent. He doesn’t have any wins, but he has some top tens to his credit. I’m only interested here because of the price tag considering the equipment he’ll be running. But overall he’s young and could easily be bullied for position on this track. Update: Jones qualified P15 because the equipment came through during qualifying. He's still just a GPP play and will likely be optimal if he can either hold his position or maybe gain a few spots as well.

NASCAR DFS Core Plays

The NASCAR DFS Core Plays for Friday night’s race at Martinsville will be posted in the NASCAR DFS Discord channel after qualifying.

 

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