NASCAR DFS Playbook Heart of America 200: Kyle Busch Seeks Another Win

After a rainy weekend in Dover that saw Ryan Truex and Martin Truex Jr. sweep the Xfinity and Cup Series races, we head to the Midwest this weekend for some high-quality intermediate racing from Kansas Speedway. At the Cup level, this track was huge a year ago for 23XI racing as Kurt Busch and Bubba Wallace swept both races at Kansas. The good news for this week, is that at both levels, we have plenty of data to look at in terms of track history, comparable tracks, and recent form, especially for the Truck Series since we’ve seen two races on 1.5-mile tri-ovals already this year. So let’s dig in to the top drivers and strategies for Saturday’s Heart of America 200!

As mentioned previously, Kansas is a 1.5-mile tri-oval with moderate tire wear. The shape is similar to Vegas, Charlotte, and Texas but the track is most similar to Vegas and it just so happens we saw them race there earlier this year. We will have 134 laps in this 200-mile race and those will be broken into 30-30-74 lap segments. That gives us around 85-90 dominator points to target when we consider caution laps. And the good news is that for this race, weather should not be an issue. They will have practice and qualifying Saturday around 12:30pm ET and the race will be later in the evening. Looks like we will have plenty of time to digest the practice and qualifying results to build the best lineups we can.

Now in terms of actually building out those lineups, normally I would say a two-dominator approach is in play here. And that’s certainly the case, but with your Kyle Busch lineups you should probably build them out as if he is the sole dominator of the race, similar to what we saw at Vegas earlier in the year. In that race he started on the pole and won while collecting 34.5 dominator points (84 laps led, 30 fastest laps). Zane Smith finished second with 8.75 dominator points after starting P7, and Carson Hocevar finished seventh with 6.1 dominator points. So if you are plugging Kyle Busch into your lineups you need to identify five other drivers that can finish well while adding some position differential. However, for your non-Kyle Busch lineups I’d say you can consider Zane Smith as a solo dominator as well. Zane dominated this race a year ago where he collected 57.6 dominator points but it’s worth mentioning that was a race Kyle Busch didn’t compete in. Busch has competed in three races this year and he’s either won or finished second in all three races. Not to mention, he’ll likely get out front and steal dominator points. Even last year he ran five races, finished in the top three in four of them and collected dominator points. I will likely be playing Busch in 12-to-14 of my Happy Hour lineups and then building up Zane in my other builds. It’s hard to deny Kyle Busch’s presence in this series so I’ll just be leaning into it.

NASCAR DFS Driver Pool

I casted a wider net than usual this week with the driver pool. I didn’t want to leave any stoned unturned when I started my DFS research this week and started watching older races. And it’s a Kyle Busch race so I wanted to give you some extra drivers to maybe try and make your build a little more unique.

Kyle Busch ($13,000; Starting P2)

As is the case whenever Kyle Busch runs the Truck race, exposure is entirely up to you. I never fully fade him but it certainly doesn’t hurt to have that leverage in a Tournament lineup. But Busch will likely be in the best ride and it’s a track he has plenty of success at. In six races in the Truck Series at Kansas, he’s won three times and finished runner-up in another. Even at the Cup level he has two career wins here. Busch even dominated the race at Vegas race where he led 84 laps on his way to a win two months ago. You’re paying a premium and you can probably lock him in for Cash games just from an ownership perspective. You will have to get a little creative with your Tournament lineups though. He was $1,500 more for Vegas a few months ago and he put up 80 points in that race. He has similar upside this week. Busch also has some momentum heading into the weekend as both he, and his brother Kurt, were added to NASCAR's 75 greatest drivers list so obviously he wants to go out and add another win to his resume. 

Zane Smith ($10,800; Starting P7)

Zane is probably the next best dominator after Busch. Some may ask about Ross Chastain, but Ross only has three top ten finishes in his last nine career races in the Truck Series. Now for some transparency, there is a win from Charlotte (comparable track) baked into those numbers and even in this race two years ago he did finish as the runner-up. But Zane is operating on a different level this year. He’s finished third or better in four of the seven races this year and he has a pair of wins on his resume too. He won this race a year ago leading over 100 laps but that was a non-Kyle Busch race. In six races here he’s never finished worse than 11^th and he’s led double-digit laps in four of those contests. Update: Smith rolls off P7 but had top five speed in practice so he's a great contrarian dominator for this race. Ross Chastain is in play for PD as he'll start P17 and the truck looked pretty fast in practice.

Ty Majeski ($10,500; Starting P9)

Majeski has had speed every week, it just hasn’t translated to wins yet. But similar to last year, I do think that when he gets that first win it’ll quickly be followed by another. His worst finish this year was Atlanta and even then he finished 11^th. In the other six races he’s finished sixth or better including top fives at Vegas and Texas. He didn’t lead a single lap at Vegas but did have 13 fastest laps. Again at Texas, didn’t lead a single lap but did have eight fastest laps. That speaks to the pure speed and setup of this truck. He finished 8^th and 2^nd in the two Kansas races a year ago so he should contend and have speed this week. He may need help to beat both Kyle Busch and Zane Smith, but it’s not completely out of the realm of possibilities.

Corey Heim ($9,900; Starting P12)

Heim was having a great race a year ago in the 51-truck for KBM but in the final stage, with about 35 laps to go he started having engine issues and even slapped the wall a couple times that required extensive repairs so he finished the race multiple laps down. But he did lead 18 laps and had 22 fastest laps, plus he was running in the top ten before all the issues. He rebounded and finished 7^th in the Fall race at Kansas later in the year. Earlier this year at Vegas he started P15 and finished fourth at Vegas and there’s a little win equity too. But with Kyle Busch in this race, it’s hard to see Heim going back-to-back after scoring his first win of the season at Martinsville three weeks ago.

Grant Enfinger ($9,500; Starting P11)

Just another week when Enfinger is a dark horse candidate to win. He’s usually good for a win or two every year and that’s no different this week. He doesn’t have a win at Kansas, but he’s finished in the top five in five of his last six races here. He only has two top fives on the season (Daytona and Bristol Dirt) so the current form isn’t great, but he hasn’t finished outside the top 20 and I don’t believe he’ll command a ton of ownership. He makes for another great Tournament play this weekend.

Nick Sanchez ($9,300; Starting P6)

This 2-truck has really benefitted from the alliance with KBM. Sanchez and Rev Racing have made some noise in 2023, but they just haven’t secured a win yet. Now in seven races he only has two top ten finishes so that speaks to the inexperience. However, he had speed at Vegas where he qualified on the pole but he wrecked out in stage three. At Texas, he landed on the pole and led 168 laps before finishing 16^th. Those heavy dominator points still allowed him to be optimal. Now we head to Kansas which is a comparable track and Sanchez should show up with speed once again this week. The kid has talent, and there will be a few more growing pains as the season continues, but still a very solid play here with dominator potential. Update: I'm slightly downgrading Sanchez a little bit in my own personal player pool because he wasn't overly fast in practice. But I expect the affiliation with KBM to shine and think he has top five upside with some dominator potential as well.

Matt Crafton ($9,000; Starting P21)

Crafton will likely be popular because he just needs a top ten for 5X value. He certainly has the equipment to finish that well but he'll be a popular option in this range along with Carson Hocevar in those lineups built for single dominators. He has 14 top ten finishes here in 25 career races at Kansas with three wins, but keep in mind he doesn't have as much win equity as he used to.

Christian Eckes ($8,700; Starting P1)

Eckes flashed his upside at Atlanta-1 where he scored a win, but since then he’s certainly had his struggles. He has a pair of 15^th place finishes (Texas and Martinsville) and a pair of 30^th place finishes (COTA and Bristol Dirt). Obviously I won’t hold the poor finishes over his head too much considering those particular races. He had a great run at Vegas earlier this year where he started P12 and finished 6^th. He has five straight top ten finishes at Kansas and has never finished worse than 13^th. Even prior to last year, he rattled off four straight finishes in the top six at this track. He had a stretch last year where he finished in the top five at Kansas-1, Texas, and Charlotte so it’s clear he is comfortable on this type of track and his performance this year has been an upgrade for McAnally-Hilgemann Racing. Update: Eckes was incredibly fast in practice and landed on the pole for this race. It's entirely feasible to play both Eckes and Busch together in a lineup because Eckes is so cheap. In that scenario you need Eckes to lead most of the first stage or two with Busch charging later for the win.

Matt DiBenedetto ($8,300; Starting P18)

Haven’t written up Matty D too much this year, but in his brief time in the Truck Series he does seem to like Vegas and Kansas. He started P12 and finished seventh in this race a year ago and then in the Fall he started P14 and finished 12^th. Even at Vegas earlier this year he started P19 and finished 12^th so I do think there’s potential for a top ten with PD that works well in Tournament lineups. Update: Decent GPP play and borderline Cash game play. Needs a top ten to hit value which he can do.

Carson Hocevar ($8,100; Starting P20)

Hocevar has been a very frustrating driver to own in DFS. Even the race he won (Texas) he only put up 51 fantasy points and it was because he led the final lap, which in fairness, is the most important lap to lead. But in three of his last five races he’s returned negative fantasy points on DraftKings. But whether this is a Truck race featuring Cup Series drivers or not, this is too cheap for Hocevar. He was $9,500 for the race at Texas (which he won) and $8,400 for Vegas, where he managed to lead 19 laps. His collective results at Kansas aren’t great. He’s run here three times, but he did finish second here last Fall where he led 28 laps and came close to earning his first win, but was outrun by John Hunter Nemechek at the end of the day. This will be the same equipment Ross Chastain will be in so you can save a little money here.

Johnny Sauter ($8,000; Starting P27)

I’m honestly not too sure what to make of Sauter this weekend. He’s a former Truck Series champion and he has a win at Kansas but that came way back in 2010. But he’s posted good results in his career in good equipment. He’s stepping into the 04-truck for Roper Racing as he takes over for Kaden Honeycutt, who honestly didn’t deserve to lose the ride, but that’s how things go in this sport. So this team is probably getting an upgrade in terms of the driver. Sauter hasn’t run any races this year and only ran six last year on tracks that don’t compare to Kansas. There’s intrigue with this play because of the experience but exposure will ultimately depend on where he qualifies, and that could determine if we try to be overweight on Sauter or if we just fade him entirely.

Jake Garcia ($7,800; Starting P4)

We aren’t getting the discount on Garcia that we jumped on earlier in the year, but he’s certainly impressed in the 35-truck. After helping us all to a very profitable night for Vegas where he started P14 and finished tenth, he backed that up with a top five at Texas a month ago after he started P9. I expect him to qualify, and finish well, so long as he runs a clean race. The price tag could still be scaring some DFS players away, so that should keep ownership down but it does become more difficult to pay off. Update: This team has speed this week, but it does seem more than likely that Garcia goes backward and he could struggle to pay off his price tag so I'm downgrading him.

Chase Purdy ($7,400; Starting P3)

I am very interested in Purdy and it’s due to what he’s done on comparable tracks this year in this equipment. He’ll obviously be looking to impress his boss, Kyle Busch, but Purdy has four top ten finishes in seven races this year. He had two top ten finishes last year with HRE and one of those came at Talladega. He qualified P3 at Vegas and finished 8^th before grabbing a runner-up finish at Texas. There likely isn’t much win equity here, but I do think he makes for an interesting Tournament play. Obviously, the further back he qualifies then he’ll become an appealing play to even casual NASCAR DFS players. But I’m interested in playing him in Tournament builds even if he qualifies top 12. The Truck Series has run about three, maybe four, high variance tracks already and we’re only seven races in. On the lower-variance tracks like Vegas, Texas, and Martinsville he’s finished in the top ten. I’d say there’s similar potential this week he gets another top ten finish. Update: Similar to Garcia, Purdy went out and put up a blazing qualifying lap. Both he and Purdy are deep-field GPP-only plays.

Hailie Deegan ($7,100; Starting P16)

Deegan is actually having a pretty strong year which is good to see because she did wreck out of the first two races this season, including Vegas two months ago. She’s finished top 20 in the five races since Vegas, including a career-best finish of sixth at Texas. She does seem a little more comfortable on these 1.5-mile intermediates and don’t forget this is where she made her Truck Series debut back in 2020 where she started P34 and finished 16^th. I do think she has top ten upside, but it feels a little more realistic to predict/project a top 15 finish for her if she runs a clean race, which she has been able to do of late, and she will be in some of the best equipment in the field. Colby Howard ($7,200) is worth mentioning as well. He’s $100 more than Deegan and posted top 20’s at Vegas and Texas earlier this year and in general, he’s done well moving up from wherever he starts this year. Update: Downgrading Deegan slightly just because this is probably right around where I think she would finish. Does she still have top ten equity? Yes, absolutely. But I would've preferred more PD out of here which we don't get because she qualified pretty well and the same could be said for Colby Howard who starts next to her at P15.

Dean Thompson ($6,600; Starting P22)

Not an overly exciting play here, especially when you see that Thompson has wrecked in three of the seven races this year, but he did start P25 and finish 16^th at Vegas and he’s coming off back-to-back strong DFS performances at Bristol Dirt and Martinsville. Neither of those tracks compare to Kansas, but Vegas certainly does. Thompson will be a Tournament-only play because he’s shown upside and plenty of downside as well. But as a value play he’ll fit in just fine in those Kyle Busch lineups if he can have a similar finish to Vegas.

Tyler Hill ($6,000; Starting P30)

I thought about including the likes of Daniel Dye and/or Bret Holmes in this low-$6K range. Dye is in great equipment and has top 20 potential, but we’ve also seen him screw the pooch a few times this year. And Holmes is a good driver in an under-funded truck, that tends to finish around where he qualifies. So once I see practice and qualifying I’ll add a note on all three drivers. But for now, I do like Hill this week as he makes his 2023 debut. Hill has raced Kansas four times and he has three finishes of 21^st or better, including a very nice run a year ago where he started P33 and finished 21^st. He’s flashed similar upside at tracks like Texas (a pair of top 20’s in three races) and Vegas (pair of 17^th place finishes in three races). I do wish he was a little bit cheaper but if he starts deep in the field then that’ll make him an even safer play. Update: Hill is probably the best play as he offers PD and he can still grab a top 20 from this spot. Dye qualified P10 and it's likely he goes backward and Holmes qualified P28. Holmes is still in play, but Dye gets a big downgrade.

Lawless Alan ($5,200; Starting P34)

I thought Dean Thompson and Alan would be priced a little closer together, but I like the price we’re getting on Alan. It’s kind of crazy the disparity in pricing between the Niece Motorsports drivers, but that speaks to the quality of talent in Chastain and Hocevar. Alan doesn’t have their upside, but he did finish top 20 at Vegas and Texas, and even in this race a year ago he grabbed a top 20 as well. If he has that kind of result on Saturday, with a little PD, he will be a nice value play. Update: Here's the value chalk today. Alan qualified P34 but hard arguably top 20 speed in practice. Cash and Tournament eligible.

Josh Reaume ($4,800; Starting P29)

I’m trying to set myself up to not be disappointed with this play. Reaume has run four races this year (Daytona, Vegas, Atlanta, and Texas). In the races he’s run with AM Racing (Daytona, Vegas, and Texas) he finished 19^th, 23^rd, and 21^st. Now two of those races don’t compare to Kansas because they’re drafting tracks. But a 21^st place finish at Texas is interesting especially since he started P29 and gained eight spots. At Vegas he ran his family’s truck and had a transmission issue, which is explains the poor result. Last year at Kansas with his family’s team he finished 30^th at Kansas-1 but in his career he’s finished 20^th here in 2019 (even with a transmission issue) and 21^st in 2018. There’s obvious risk here but I could see plenty of DFS players skipping over him to pay down to the next driver because she’ll be in better equipment. But I will be keeping my eye on Reaume to see if he can squeeze out another top 25 finish with this AM Racing ride. Update: Wasn't fast in practice but I still think he's like for a top 20 finish. Realistically only needs to finish 23rd for value, which he can do in this ride. Lawless Alan is the safer play, but easily the more popular play that everyone will flock to.

Toni Breidinger ($4,700; Starting P24)

When I saw the entry list and that Breidinger was going to be in the field, I wasn’t all that interested. She’s in the 1-truck for TRICON and while this equipment is very solid, I thought because of that she would be priced up a little more. But here she is as the third-cheapest option on the board. I still have my concerns because this is her debut and I don’t expect anything close to the result Deegan put up in her debut at Kansas a few years ago. However, this price tag is just too cheap for this equipment. She’ll be the 11^th driver to qualify for this race and I’m guessing she’ll start outside the top 25 and if she’s starting far back she really won’t have to do much to pay off such a minimal price tag. Her goal is likely to run a clean race and just finish it, but there could be a path to value. Update: She needs to finish 21st or better to justify the price tag. That's very possible and the equipment is certainly good enough. She's a GPP-only play given that there are other options in this range starting further back that are better suited for Cash games.

NASCAR DFS Core Drivers