It won’t be often in 2022 that we go back to the method of setting the starting order without qualifying, but that will be the case this weekend as NASCAR goes to Atlanta. Friday’s weather forced the cancellation of all qualifying sessions for the weekend with practice being moved to early Saturday morning. So I’m not going to lie, I don’t have much to go off of. As you all are probably aware, no tout in the industry is looking at previous Atlanta data and rightfully so. Atlanta was re-paved so it’s no longer a track that will eat away at tires. Additionally, the corner banking was changed from 24 degrees to 28 degrees and the front stretch is now wider. 

The good news is that we know the starting order and we know the re-configuring of Atlanta was done to bring more of a superspeedway-like race to this track. It’s possible that holds true, but Atlanta is not nearly as big as Daytona and Talladega. But if that’s NASCAR’s intent, then we know how to construct lineups for that kind of race. I’m doing ten lineups in the Happy Hour, and I’m still debating if I like Cash games today. Three lineups will likely stack the back in some capacity, and three will maybe go for a more traditional 1.5-mile strategy by targeting PD and seeking a couple dominators. And then with the other four builds I’ll just get contrarian and maybe leave a little money on the table. It’s a shame we don’t know who will show up fast, and with so many unknowns I’m comfortable saving my bankroll for COTA next week.

Practice Results

No need to put a ton of weight in the practice results. This looks like it'll be a draft-heavy race.

Driver Pool

John Hunter Nemechek ($11,100; Starting P12) It hasn’t been a memorable start to the 2022 campaign for JHN. Truthfully, he didn’t even finish 2021 that well and he hasn’t won since June of last year at Pocono. He’s certainly led laps and collected dominator points this season, but the finishes have not been good and if we’re putting him in lineups at this price, we want him to win. So maybe it’s not a bad week to fade him, but I have a hard time doing that when he’s starting outside the top ten. You certainly don’t need to go here by any means considering it’s possibly to build a more balanced lineup this week without dipping down too far.

Ross Chastain ($10,700; Starting P36) Chastain should be the most expensive driver for Saturday’s race. He’s starting incredibly far back and should be over 85% owned in Cash games (if you’re choosing to play cash games). He offers a ton of PD and is one of the most talented drivers in the field. Hell, he’s been in contention to win the last couple Cup Series races so we obviously like the upside here. I’m not too worried about the equipment. He ran plenty of races in Niece Motorsports trucks in previous years and if he runs clean he’s a great play, but a chalky one. 6X-7X value is well in play today.

Chandler Smith ($10,400; Starting P1) I think if you’re trying to be different, and if everyone is approaching their lineup construction by stacking the back, then Smith is a way to get different if this race runs like an intermediate. He’ll be on the pole so he can only go backward and negative PD could be costly. But he also has the easiest route to collecting dominator points. I don’t think I’d play him in Cash games, but he’s certainly in play for GPP’s to be different. He’s also Pockrass’ pick to win today’s race.

Ryan Preece ($10,200; Starting P11) Preece is a cheaper version of JHN this week. He won a Truck race a year ago and is a Cup-level driver that unfortunately just doesn’t have a ride this year. That’ll likely change in 2023, but for now he’s a SHR alternate and will run occasional races at the Truck level. He offers a little PD and may come in with low ownership given the options starting further back.

Ben Rhodes ($10,000; Starting P15) The reigning Truck Series champion certainly gets a nod starting P15. If this races like a superspeedway then we’ll have to acknowledge Rhodes. He won Daytona in 2021, finished second there a month ago, and he’s had decent runs at Talladega. 

Christian Eckes ($9,800; Starting P16) Eckes is a guy that just tends to hang around. He never flat out dominates a race. But he is capable of getting a top five and I don’t expect a ton of ownership on him today. He finished third a month ago at Daytona but given the options around him like Preece, Rhodes, and Zane Smith I think we could see people skip over Eckes.

Zane Smith ($9,600; Starting P25) Another very popular play and a driver that’ll be over 50% owned in Cash games. He offers PD and he finished first at Daytona a month ago and followed that up by finishing second at Vegas two weeks ago. The PD says it all here as that’s what people will flock to. 

Corey Heim ($8,500; Starting P19) Once you get past Zane Smith there is this range of drivers between $7,800-$9,400 and they’re all starting in the top ten with the exception of Heim. Now if you start your cash build with Chastain and Zane you have about $7,400/driver remaining for the last four spots. You don’t need to play Heim, but you could. This is still Kyle Busch Motorsports equipment, some of the best in the field. But we also haven’t seen good results from Heim. He has just one top 15 finish in four races in the Truck Series. Maybe a new track gives us his best result yet. I can’t say with a ton of confidence I’ll have a lot of exposure here, but let’s see what happens in practice. This is also his home track so he wants a good showing.

Jordan Anderson ($7,600; Starting P33) Anderson fits well in Chastain/Zane Cash builds. He’s not a hindrance on the salary by any means and he finished 2nd in back-to-back Daytona races in 2020 and 2021. Sadly, he failed to qualify for this year’s race. But if this races like a superspeedway then Anderson needs to be on our radar as he’s shown he can thrive at that track. But if this does race like a 1.5-mile track then he may not be worth looking at based on the track type and the equipment.

Derek Kraus ($7,500; Starting P18) Kraus is like a cheaper version of Corey Heim. They’re both starting in the same range, but we have a much larger sample size from Kraus. His equipment is not as good as Heim’s, but Kraus is decent. I just wish his price tag was a bit cheaper based on his previous two races this year, but we may be in a position where pricing doesn’t matter today. He doesn’t have a great history on superspeedways, but Kraus is one of those guys that can sneak into the top ten by the end of the race and ownership may be light.

Colby Howard ($7,400; Stating P26) Let’s touch on Kraus’ teammate for a bit. Howard comes with variance. If you watched him in Xfinity (or even this year in a small sample size with the Trucks), the results haven’t been great by any means. But he did lead some laps at Daytona for what it’s worth. We get a little PD starting P26, but I just wish he was cheaper. He’s a borderline Cash game play but easily in play for GPP’s.

Hailie Deegan ($7,100; Starting P27) Deegan might be a little popular on Saturday. We know she can get a top 20, maybe even a top 15 so this price is right. There’s still some risk here obviously, but there’s always a decent floor with Deegan if she manages to run clean and she’s usually starting ten spots higher. So I’ll mix in some exposure since she offers PD. There’s a good floor here, not much of a ceiling though.

Spencer Boyd ($6,600; Starting P30) If this race truly runs like a superspeedway and we get drafting and some wreckage then Boyd is a guy we want to consider. We only really play him at Daytona and Talladega. In the last four Daytona races Boyd has finished top 20 in all four, including 11th a month ago. He won Talladega in October 2019 and finished 7th there last year. In eight superspeedway races he’s only wrecked once. Now we won’t see the speed of Daytona and Talladega but if NASCAR succeeds with the reconfiguration, we may see a more suitable race for Boyd. And if he swipes another top 20 finish then he’s giving us 5X value.

Brennan Poole ($6,400; Starting P35) I’m so tempted to play him in Cash games (if I opt to play Cash games after all). He’s a decent driver. He’s better than the equipment he runs. But he’s often put in some awful equipment and that could still be the case today with G2G, although they’ve had okay results. But he offers PD and even if he just finishes 25th we’d be very happy with that given the price tag. 

Value Options: There are a few drivers I like if we need to find some true punts. Thad Moffitt is a guy I think I’ll mix into two or three lineups. The equipment likely isn’t very good but he is Richard Petty’s grandson if that means anything to you. He did well enough to move up and gain PD at Daytona a month ago, but if this runs like a more traditional intermediate track he could be trouble. He’s only $5,700 and he’s starting P28. Jesse Little is a driver I’m very interested in today. He’s only $5,300 and he starts P34. He basically hits value with a top 25, but even if he doesn’t quite hit that mark I’d be happy with just some PD. He’s only run Daytona but he did finish sixth there a month ago. I like Little for all formats. And lastly… I guess I’ll throw Matt Jaskol out there. He’s the cheapest driver in the field at just $5,000 and he’s starting P31. He’s in G2G equipment similar to Brennan Poole and he somehow moved up ten spots and finished 23rd at Vegas. I never consider Jaskol but if you need a real punt you can go here and just hope he finishes the race. Because if he does then he’s probably returning value.

Example Lineups

Example Lineups will be published separately following practice.

 

 

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