The NASCAR Xfinity Series rolls through the Pocono Mountains this weekend as we’re treated to a doubleheader on Saturday with both the Camping World Truck Series and the Xfinity Series making their way around the tricky triangle! Last weekend’s action in New Hampshire was absolute chaos. That can always happen with NASCAR DFS but I can’t remember a race at New Hampshire being that much of a dumpster fire. But Justin Allgaier secured his third win in his last eight races. He and Ty Gibbs have easily been the two hottest drivers of late and it’s easy to consider both of them the favorites for the 2022 Xfinity Series Championship. While this does mark the final race of the regular season for the Truck Series, the Xfinity Series still has eight races left so let’s see what we can expect at the tricky triangle!

As noted in the Truck Series Playbook, this is one of my least favorite tracks on the schedule. The racing can be a bit boring especially with long green flag runs. Pocono Raceway is 2.5 miles in length with three turns and the longest straightaway on the schedule; 3,740 feet in length and this track also allows drivers to go pretty wide on the front stretch into 14 degrees of banking in turn one. Turns two and three are eight-and-six degrees respectively. So yeah, this track is a bit of an odd duck.

We do get a few more dominator points to work with than the Truck race, but not much more. At 90 laps we’ll see roughly 60 dominator points depending on cautions. In the last five races here for the Xfinity Series we’ve seen at least 15 laps run under caution and in the last three races we’ve seen at least 20 laps run under caution. That shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise given how unreliable the field is in this series. Always account for variance with this series and assume one of these drivers makes a moronic move.

Three of the last five pole sitters have finished outside the top 15 here. Track position is vital and the smart teams will do what they can to maintain it. There may be some drivers that stay out at the end of stage breaks to get themselves points. However, that could cost them later in the race. Aside from Cole Custer three years ago, we haven’t really seen one driver truly dominate this race. If you can get the lead late it’s easy to run away and take the checkered flag. Similar to what I mentioned in the Truck Playbook, I won’t be focusing too much on dominators, but I will still be targeting drivers that start in the top ten. If they get dominator points, then great. That’s gravy. I will mostly be taking a “FanDuel Approach” for Pocono’s action and looking for six drivers that can maybe crack the top 12 along with win equity.

Driver Pool

Ty Gibbs ($10,700) Gibbs is in play as is the case every week. Just looking at his debut at Pocono last year he started P14 and was sixth by the end of the first stage. He’d then win the second stage before finishing as the runner-up while leading 11 laps and posting a 118.0 driver rating. His last two races haven’t been great, but they’ve been somewhat unpredictable. With a clean race we can assume Gibbs contends for a win with some dominator points in hand. I think you can also consider Justin Allgaier for $200 less. I may be lighter than the field regarding him though. He’s been on fire lately and ownership will be heavy, so I just want to have leverage by avoiding him.

Noah Gragson ($10,300) Gragson has hit a bit of a cold streak. Some of his recent results have been okay, but he hasn’t led a single lap since Charlotte almost two months ago. And even then he still has four top tens in that span. His teammates have seemingly been faster than him and he still has the Road America debacle looming over his head. But I think we start to see a turning point in his season. Consider the news out of the Cup Series and the availability of some open rides. Tyler Reddick will be out of the 8-car in two years and possibly next year. Ty Dillon won’t be returning to Petty GMS. This is the time for him to really go out and show what he can do. He’s already getting Cup Series experience, but he doesn’t have a full-time ride. If he wants one and can show maturity and provide results to back it up then he’ll catch the eye of some team owners. 

Cole Custer ($10,100) Custer is back in the 07-car that is likely prepped by SHR. If we’re looking at a track that could be similar to Pocono in terms of length and horsepower, we can rest easy knowing Custer dominated Auto Club earlier this year with 80 laps led and a win. He’s seemingly been very fast in this car and should show up and crush it with speed again today. He’ll need a top five and some dominator points to pay off the price tag, but we know he can do such a thing. Update: Custer had a terrible practice session with the 29th-fastest single lap and qualified P16. He might still be okay for Cash games, but not worth a ton of exposure in GPP’s. I may aim to be underweight.

Josh Berry ($9,900) Berry’s car seems to have speed every single week. Last week was a very impressive run for the 8-car after the team qualified on the pole, but took on some damage during qualifying. So they dropped to the rear to fix the damage and Berry still worked his way back to the front and even led some laps. He did get caught up in a wreck, but so did a lot of other drivers. He’s finished seventh or better on ten occasions this year with a pair of wins. I also like that he’s finding his way to the front more often and am curious as to how the car looks in practice. Per usual, I’ll also probably get shares of Sam Mayer hoping this “this is the week” once again. He has top five upside but he could also bust your lineups as well.

AJ Allmendinger ($9,300) I have not fully loved the speed Dinger has shown on non-road courses and non-superspeedways. However, this is the cheapest we’ve seen him all year and he’s coming off a performance where there was an exceptionally high level of variance at New Hampshire. He only posted six points on DraftKings last week, so they gave us even more of a discount. With roughly 60 dominator points available for this race, I’m fine rostering Allmendinger with the expectation that he can get a top ten and there’s a little bit of win equity here. He did post a good qualifying run so I may limit my shares a little more, but still think he’s a fine play given the pedigree of the driver.

Riley Herbst ($8,400) Herbst was a dud last week, but he looked great in practice flashing the third-fastest single lap and he went and qualified outside the top ten. At this price tag he could easily pay off the price tag with a top eight finish which is well within his reach. He had a string of top ten finishes earlier in the year and after a couple bad weeks he’ll be looking to rebound.

Sammy Smith ($8,200) It’s hard to gauge what we’ll get out of Smith. He’s only run a road course for the 18-car car of JGR this year, but I do like that he ran Friday’s ARCA race. He didn’t win, but he’s been one of the best drivers in that series this season with multiple wins. Keep in mind, we’re getting the 18-car which has had speed with Trevor Bayne, Ryan Truex, and John Hunter Nemechek behind the wheel. We’re getting the exact same equipment at an average price tag simply because we don’t have a big sample size with Smith and he did get a feel for the track last night. He qualified well and doesn’t offer a ton of PD, but the car was very fast and he can be optimal without much PD.

Landon Cassill ($7,900) Similar to his Kaulig teammate, AJ Allmendinger, we’re getting a tremendous discount on Cassill. This is the second time this year he’s been under $8K and he’s coming off a very impressive run last week where he showed incredible speed despite Kaulig going on record numerous times this year saying they’d struggle in that regard. Either way he finished third and put up 57 DraftKings points. So they drop his price tag? I know the speed may not be there with Kaulig on a week-to-week basis, but this is a bit too low and I think it’s worth taking advantage of. There is some variance here though. He’s finished in the top ten in half the races this year and he’s had some races where he finished about where he qualified. If the last two weeks are the beginning of a trend, then I think it could be worthwhile to have some shares of Cassill. He didn’t have the best speed in practice, but he qualified outside the top 20. This isn’t a terrible DFS spot for a driver with top ten upside.

Jeb Burton ($7,500) This is mostly a contrarian recommendation from an ownership perspective since Burton hasn’t finished well over the last month or so. In his last five races he’s wrecked three times and he has only one top 20 finish. The price tag is still too cheap for Burton. He’s probably more of a low $8K driver in my opinion, but the equipment and results have been a downgrade from where he was at a year ago. We did see on plenty of occasions that he has top 15 upside and if he can qualify well and endure the long, green flag runs I think he could be optimal. I’d like to see him start somewhere where he can get us some PD, but not too much to draw rostership to him.

Brandon Brown ($7,200) It’s been a tough week for Brandon Brown as he announced he won’t drive the 68-car next week due to funding issues. However, he still has a ride for Indy but just in lesser equipment. Maybe there’s a little extra motivation for him this week. If you take away Atlanta and Road America, he’s finished in the top 17 in his last five races including a top five last week at New Hampshire. He had okay speed off the truck in practice (22nd) but qualified P26 so he’s viable in Cash and GPP formats. As a pivot, I like Anthony Alfredo for $100 less and he’s only starting one row ahead of Brown. Fast Pasta has had speed plenty of times and has the ability to move up from his P24 starting spot. I didn’t particularly love how he looked in practice though. Myatt Snider also falls into this range of drivers that are in play. Between Brown, Alfredo, and Snider I feel like one of them ends up in the optimal lineup.

Kyle Weatherman ($6,600) It’s a bit of an elevated price tag, but Weatherman has had some very good runs in the 34-car for Jesse Iwuji Motorsports. This isn’t one of those weeks where Weatherman  practices and qualifies the car while Iwuji goes out and runs in the race. No, Weatheman was listed on the entry list so we get to see him pilot this ride. The equipment is still suspect and the results are a mixed bag, but he’s a good GPP target since he’s coming off a top ten finish at New Hampshire last week. Granted, it was one of the more chaotic New Hampshire races we’ve ever seen and Weatherman shouldn’t be forced into our lineups, but he’s driven this ride to a top 16 finish or better three times in seven races. He also finished 15th at Pocono in 2020 in worse equipment. I’m not going to write him up in depth, but JJ Yeley can be considered for $100 less than Weatherman. Yeley surprisingly had the 15th-best lap but qualified P38. I didn’t have my eyes on qualifying but I have a difficult time trusting Yeley since he could take the car behind the wall at any moment during the race.

Ryan Vargas ($6,300) I’ve been quiet on Vargas for a while. It seems like every time I write him up he goes and busts. It’s an awful curse that I have to admit might be real. But if we’re discussing “recent form” he has it. He’s posted at least 33 points on DraftKings in four straight races and he’s finished in the top 23 in each of those races. He starts P35 so he can’t really hurt us unless he can’t fire up the car for the race. If you want more of a GPP play, then it’s likely Kyle Sieg for $100 cheaper. Sieg’s equipment is better, but he’s also starting P20 which is probably where he’s capable of finishing. It would take an excessive level of chaos for Sieg to be optimal so I may not bother targeting him at all.

Rajah Caruth ($5,200) This is purely a PD punt play. Caruth is in Alpha Prime equipment for Saturday’s race. Tommy Joe Martins is fielding decent equipment, but I just wish he could put good drivers in them. Luckily Caruth is a bit of a talented prospect and flashed great speed earlier at Richmond but hasn’t posted the best results in his two races. But he is starting from the rear with PD on his side. 

Patrick Emerling ($4,900) Emerling needed A LOT of help last week to achieve his 7X value at New Hampshire. There was so much chaos, but he posted his best finish of the season (18th). He was incredibly slow in practice and I’m not entirely convinced this team finishes the race. However, he’s dirt cheap and he’s starting third-to-last. He can’t cost you any points. He’s arguably returning value if he finishes 27th. For this reason we can also consider Timmy Hill. Hill isn’t as reliable as he is in the Truck Series, but he’s starting last and is just $100 more than Emerling. Similarly, he can’t get you negative points.

Core Plays

Given that Xfinity had their practice session Saturday morning and that I had to account for the Truck Playbook as well, I’ll likely only be doing Core Plays for the Xfinity Series race. They’ll be posted in the NASCAR DFS Discord Channel by 3:30pm ET. 

 

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