NASCAR DFS Playbook Explore the Pocono Mountains 225: Top DraftKings Picks

The NASCAR Xfinity Series is back once again for some racing around the tricky triangle of Pocono Raceway. The Craftsman Truck Series only has two races left in their regular season, but the Xfinity Series still has a handful of opportunities left for drivers to secure a playoff spot with a win. However, like the Truck Series, Saturday afternoon’s race at Pocono will see a few NASCAR Cup Series drivers like Chase Elliott, Daniel Suarez, and Ty Dillon compete for a chance to go to victory lane. Here are the NASCAR DFS drivers and strategies for Saturday’s Explore the Pocono Mountains 225.

I don’t want to do too much of a track preview for this race simply because I’ve had to do two NASCAR DFS Playbooks in one night. But if you want to revisit the Truck Series Playbook, I touch on some track details. It’s a big track with three turns. Very few tracks like Pocono on the schedule but it does compare to some higher speed intermediates like Vegas, Kansas, and probably Michigan.

Saturday’s race offers a little more dominator potential than the Truck Series race since it has 90 laps compared to the Truck Series’ 60. Saturday’s race will be broken in 20-20-50 lap segments. We have about 55-60 dominator points to target, but as always, this is the Xfinity Series. I never feel comfortable playing cash games in this series because these drivers love to create their own chaos and unnecessary cautions.

Explore the Pocono Mountains 225 Practice Notes

NASCAR DFS Driver Pool

Chase Elliott ($11,200; Starting P13)

Elliott isn’t as expensive as Kyle Busch is in the Truck Series, but they start in similar spots for their respective races. Elliott only had the 12^th-fastest lap in practice and that’s roughly where he qualified. It is entirely possible that he runs roughly in this position for Saturday’s race but ultimately, I’m not buying that narrative. He has a pretty easy path to 50+ points unless he wrecks or has an issue late in the race.

John Hunter Nemechek ($10,800; Starting P5)

Nemechek is rolling right now with back-to-back wins at Atlanta and New Hampshire bringing his win total to four on the yar. JHN won this race in the Truck Series in 2021 and was third in last year’s race. He wasn’t particularly noteworthy in practice but he’s more than capable of running well Saturday afternoon and could easily win his third straight race.

Justin Allgaier ($10,500; Starting P9)

Allgaier was at the top of several DFS analysts’ pre-practice and qualifying ranks and rightfully so. This is one of his best tracks that he’s never scored a win at. In his last three races he’s finished seventh, third, and sixth at Pocono and he finished second back in 2017. In four of seven races he’s led double-digit laps and there was another race where he led nine laps. He’s also posted a driver rating of at least 105 in five of his last six races here. He put down the fastest lap in practice but didn’t qualify as well. If you’re building lineups with two dominators in mind, Allgaier works perfectly as a dominator you think circles to the lead in stages two and three and potentially wins.

Josh Berry ($9,900; Starting P1)

Berry has a good opportunity to get out front early and lead the first stage. He’s raced here twice in the Xfinity Series finishing third and ninth previously. He even managed to lead nine laps in last year’s race. He will need to basically run up front for the first stage and finish top five to have a chance at being optimal. He did lay down the fourth-fastest lap in practice and was fastest in the ten-lap average but only eight drivers were on track long enough for ten laps. I don’t have him listed as a core play in cash games, but he’s still eligible in that format. But for the Truck and Xfinity races I do have some concerns playing the pole sitter in cash games with fewer dominator points available. Berry can be played in double up’s, I just don’t think he’s a lock necessarily.

Chandler Smith ($9,700; Starting P16)

After qualifying on the front row for three of the last four races in the Xfinity Series, Chandler Smith qualified P16 for this afternoon’s race. He definitely looked good at the “racier” intermediates earlier in the year like Vegas and Auto Club. And he certainly has PD this week. Daniel Hemric had the best speed in practice and he qualified on the front row. That does concern me that maybe Kaulig missed on the setups for Chandler Smith and Daniel Suarez. So I won’t go too heavy with this play, but the PD is certainly there and he’s raced well on tracks that somewhat correlate to Pocono. As a pivot, I would consider Austin Hill ($9,500; Starting P11) who started and finished eighth here in 2022 and had some good runs here in the Truck Series.

Daniel Suarez ($9,100; Starting P23)

Suarez was noticeably slow-ish in practice. That’s a little odd because Kaulig Racing has done well making sure this car has speed regardless of whoever has driven it. So I’m a little concerned that it might be a Suarez issue. Overall though, I probably won’t overthink it. He’s live for Cash games because of the position differential, but this might be a driver to be underweight when it comes to tournaments.

Daniel Hemric ($8,500; Starting P2)

I’m not putting too much faith in this play because it’s very likely that he goes backward. But if playing 20+ lineups I’d say he’s worth throwing in two because you might be getting leverage. And what happens if he does manage to get around Josh Berry, lead the first stage, and somehow grab a top five? Well he’s probably optimal if I’m being honest. It is a little weird that Hemric was fastest among the Kaulig cars. But this might actually be one of his better tracks. During his brief run in the Cup Series in 2019, he finished 13^th and 7^th here in a pair of races, and in the Xfinity Series he has four top ten finishes in five races. I’m not going to exceed my personal exposure past 20% but I do want a little leverage in case he pops off because the track history is certainly in his favor.

Riley Herbst ($8,400; Starting P21)

This is about as much of a trap as we can possibly get with a driver. Herbst has raced at Pocono three times. In one of those races he did wreck, but in the other two he did finish ninth and 12^th. He’s also finished top ten in his last two races at Michigan so I’m of the mindset that he does run well on these higher-powered intermediates so long as he stays clean. That’s always the issue with Herbst and he tends to bust when he’s this chalky. I think I prefer the savings with Herbst over Suarez though.

Parker Kligerman ($8,000; Starting P22)

It’s a shame Kligerman wrecked last weekend because he really seemed to love his car and the setup, citing it as the best short track setup they’ve had all year. Last week ended a run of four straight races finishing in the top 11. Kligerman will also be running the Truck Series race earlier in the day so he’s getting some extra laps on the track. He’s never finished worse than 15^th in three races in the Truck Series at Pocono, but this will be his debut in the Xfinity Series here. I’ve had some rough Xfinity weeks because I’ve played Kligerman at the wrong time so I’m always a little nervous about being too overweight on him. But on paper he’s shaping up to be a good play. Kaz Grala ($7,900; Starting P24) is a good pivot in this range if you think Kligerman is too chalky. Grala doesn’t have a ton of experience here, but he has momentum with four straight top 16 finishes, so the equipment is good enough to move up and hit value. But there may not be a massive ceiling here.

Corey Heim ($7,400; Starting P15)

Heim makes for a good GPP play for Saturday’s race. He starts P15 and showed that he has top ten upside like we saw at Darlington. I don’t know if he necessarily has a top ten in him for this particular race though. He would need some extra chaos and he would also have to avoid it. He’s definitely talented and he’s been on a tear in the Truck Series. If Kyle Busch wasn’t running the Truck race on Saturday, Heim would be a big favorite to win it. So Heim’s getting extra track time which is great for his DFS outlook. I’d only stick with him in tournaments rather than cash games this week.

Ty Dillon ($7,100; Starting P25)

Dillon’s in a RCR car this week and we all thought it would be pretty fast… Until it wasn’t. It was top 20 in practice, but not near up to the speed of teammates Austin Hill or Sheldon Creed. He’s familiar with the track at least having raced here so much in his career. But it could be a day where he maybe fights for a top 15. Some exposure is warranted because he starts P25 and you have to think the experience and equipment can get him a top ten, but it’s no guarantee if there’s no speed in this car. He’s perfectly fine in cash games and will be a popular target in those contests, but one worth pivoting off of possible.

Anthony Alfredo ($6,300; Starting P26)

Alfredo is a tough play this week simply because he hasn’t been very good since the hot start he got off to kicking off the 2023 season with BJ McLeod’s team. Over his last 12 races he only has one top 20 finish and he’s failed to finish half those races. So right away that signals durability issues with his equipment. But he did finished 16^th here last year and looked good on the faster intermediates earlier this season. There’s still the obvious risk that he busts, but I do think he can hit 5X value with a top 18 finish.

Sage Karam ($6,100; Starting P29)

Sage Karam has not looked very good when he’s raced in the Xfinity Series this year. He has four finishes outside the top 30 and even his best finish was 22^nd at Chicago’s Street Course and that was a race NASCAR had to bend its own rules to make official even though it didn’t race to halfway or to the end of the second stage, but I digress. Karam has raced here in the IndyCar Series, which is a bit of an emotional subject for him due to an unfortunate tragedy from his time in IndyCar. But he did grab a top 20 here a year ago. In general, this Alpha Prime equipment is awful, but we’re pretty much throwing darts with some of these value plays this week.

Jeffrey Earnhardt ($5,500; Starting P35) 

Here’s another value play that I don’t really love, but the value options are just awful this week. Earnhardt has raced here three times in the Xfinity Series and finished 22^nd or better in all three. Does he have that kind of potential on Saturday? It’s highly unlikely because he’s in Alpha Prime equipment like Sage Karam. But he gets featured because he starts deep enough where he doesn’t hurt you as much as guys like Ryan Ellis and Kyle Sieg might. You can get 23 fantasy points on DraftKings out of Earnhardt if he finishes 27^th.

Blaine Perkins ($5,200; Starting P38)

Perkins is a good play in cash games, but might not have much of a ceiling in tournaments unless he finishes 23^rd or better. He can certainly do that but he’s also going to be popular in tournaments because he’s cheap and can’t get negative points. He started P31 here last year and finished 34^th because of a suspension issue. He’s not a lock by any means which is why I prefer him more in cash games for the safety net of starting dead last. Patrick Emerling ($5,100; Starting P36) is about as cheap as I would go in this race. He starts in front of Perkins and finished 29^th in this race a year ago starting from the same spot. He is coming off a top 15 last week at New Hampshire so while I wouldn’t expect a similar result, he provides an okay floor for value options.

NASCAR DFS Core Drivers