NASCAR DFS Playbook: CRC Brakleen 150

It’s one of the rare weeks where I have started building lineups before writing the Truck Playbook. This series has been frustrating. It seems like we’re running cleaning on a consistent basis through two stages and then chaos hits and the week goes up in flames. I’m keeping it simple this week. I’m playing the $25 and $5 single-entry double up’s as well as the 20-entry max Happy Hour. Not a ton of money going in, but if my Cash builds hit then I’m turning a profit regardless of my GPP lines.

We’re at Pocono, a track I don’t love incredibly for DFS because we don’t have a ton of dominator points for the Truck series (maybe 35-38 if we account for cautions) and it becomes difficult to pass on long, green flag runs. Plus it’s a Kyle Busch race and he’s $15,000 with an easy route to value based on the PD he offers. I’ll touch on my strategies with KB51 shortly after discussing the track.

We have 2.5 miles of long, wide straightaways and just three turns this week. The turns can be difficult as they aren’t identical. So with fewer dominator points we would like to target PD, but it’s so tough to pass here. With that said don’t feel like you need to stuff PD plays into your builds. There will be some plays that start in the top 15 that hit value by holding their position. These conditions are identical to last year’s Pocono race. They showed up without practice and qualifying and just ran the race. 29 of the 60 laps were run under yellow… That sucked. That amount of yellow flag runs take away from fastest laps and thus make it even more of a finishing position/PD play. So keep that in mind when building your lineups.

Driver Pool

Kyle Busch ($15,000; Starting P22) There’s a lot to unpack here. For starters, he’s GREAT at Pocono and he offers PD. If he just wins the race outright we’re looking at 67 points on DK and he needs just eight additional points to hit 5X value. Given that we don’t have a ton of dominator points on this slate it’ll be difficult for him to hit 6X value, but crazier things have happened. As he moves through the field he should collect fastest laps, but I don’t think he gets laps led until stages two and three. There’s no competition caution so the first 25% of the race likely goes without Busch in the lead. I’m going to build plenty of lineups with Kyle but you really need to differentiate your builds. Here is a popular Kyle Busch line people will likely play: Kyle Busch, Grant Enfinger, Josh Berry, Chase Purdy, Hailie Deegan, Austin Wayne Self. That uses your entire budget. You might also see Busch, Enfinger, Wood, Majeski, Deegan, and Ankrum. I’m not trying to give away lineups here but these are logical lineups you’ll see in play. To differentiate your builds, don’t start with Kyle Busch and Grant Enfinger. I like a couple builds with Kyle Busch and Zane Smith to maybe collect some early laps led points (and pray for a solid Zane finish) while still mixing in the usual suspects you’ll find in the cheap zone. By going this route you take a firm GPP stance with your KB51 builds that may not lend themselves to chalk. I’m doing 20 lineups on Sunday and currently have 60% exposure to Kyle Busch which will likely be under the field.

John Hunter Nemechek ($11,000; Starting P7) He needs PD in addition to laps led to hit value, but he can still be in the optimal lineup without a win. You certainly can build a GPP lineup with JHN and KB51 but you’ll definitely be splitting that takedown with a handful of DFS users. Remember in the four races that Kyle Busch has run in the Truck series this year, JHN is the one to have beaten him in his two runner-up races. He hasn’t run Pocono at the Truck series in almost four years but the resume is still fine and he should have a great day if he runs a clean race. Again, I’m not fond of playing him with his boss.

Sheldon Creed ($10,500; Starting P10) Creed has started to revert to some old habits. And by old habits I mean, aggravating the hell out of me on Fridays and Saturdays. But we can’t forget what he did here a year ago. He dominated the first two stages and grabbed a third-place finish. His results of late have been awful but there’s still GPP appeal here. Nobody is exempt from a wreck and if this race gets messy I want to spread exposure around and Creed does offer PD at this price tag and he doesn’t need to win to be optimal.

Ryan Preece ($9,800; Starting P8) – I severely underestimated Preece last week and that bit me in the ass. I’m not making the same mistake twice. Am I all in? No. But he’ll crack a couple of my 20 builds. The price tag jumped up $800 so from this starting spot I don’t like him for Cash games. But this is a Cup series driver who drover this same ride to a win last week and he has a top five here previously in the Xfinity series.

Grant Enfinger ($9,600; Starting P31) Enfinger has never finished worse than 13th at Pocono. Even in last year’s race without practice and qualifying he started fifth and finished 11th. But he won’t be in his Thorsport racing equipment for Sunday’s race. However, he’s looked fine when running the 9-truck for CR7 Motorsports. He’s riding back-to-back top three finishes in his Thorsport truck but for this week he needs to finish 13th for 5X value. I’m perfectly fine fading Enfinger here for GPP lines. The price tag and starting spot will make him a fairly popular play. Because of that I’m fine going other routes to build my lineups and if he wrecks, gets a penalty on pit road, or has a mechanical issue then we’re in great shape.

Zane Smith ($9,300; Starting P2) I mentioned him up above and in the Wager Alarm Best Bets article. I like him more in DFS than I do for wagering, but if he gets a top five finish and can get some early dominator points, then I like him in GPP builds with Kyle Busch. Exposure should be limited to just GPP’s, but he has a chance at jumping out early for the lead and he seems to always have speed. He’s posted 40+ DraftKings points in three of his last four races.

Bayley Currey ($8,700; Starting P27) There’s a bit of a narrative with Currey on Saturday’s slate and we can’t measure it numerically. Currey has been pulled from the 74-car for Sunday’s Xfinity series race and it’s a move Mike Harmon said Currey endorsed and supported. That’s typically a series Currey has had mixed results in. But in the truck series when he’s started this far back, he’s been able to move up. The price tag absolutely sucks. He needs a top 13 finish for 5X value and I don’t feel great about that. However, the Niece Motorsports trucks have been great in 2021 and Currey has something to prove to his Xfinity employer. Remember, the long runs hinder his upside a little bit but if he has track position come stage three, he has potential. He did finish 16th here last year under similar “show up and race” conditions.

Chandler Smith ($7,800; Starting P11) Everyone in this mid-$7K range is going to look to Josh Berry. And I’m guilty of that as well. I have him in a few of my preliminary builds and he’s still a strong play. But this is too obvious of a PD target and while he’s priced down there will be significant ownership on him. So I’m looking at Chandler Smith. Why? Well, he offers less PD and he’s $300 more. Logically it makes no sense to view him as a pivot, but this is an ownership play. He just needs to finish eighth for 5X value and he fortunately got some laps in during the ARCA race on Friday. He’s looked much better of late considering his runs at Charlotte, Texas, and Nashville so if you need a pivot off Berry, I really like Smith in this range.

Ty Majeski ($7,100; Starting P14) He grabbed top ten’s at Charlotte and Nashville over the past month and DraftKings hasn’t adjusted his price tag. He wrecked in last year’s Pocono race for the Trucks, but he’s in some damn good Thorsport equipment this week. A top eight finish returns 6X value. He just needs to avoid chaos and gain a handful of spots.

Carson Hocevar ($6,900; Starting P13) So the secret was out on Hocevar a few weeks back and the value disappeared on him because he was starting too high. But at this price tag and this starting spot I’m willing to take some shots on him in my Kyle Busch builds. Following a pair of 22-point performances on DraftKings, Hocevar’s price is down and he’s starting outside the top 12. So I think it’s time to get reacquainted with Hocevar for GPP’s. I don’t believe he’s ever run Pocono before and he’s typically performed well on shorter tracks. But a top ten easily exceeds value if he can find the speed he had a few weeks ago.

Derek Kraus ($6,500; Starting P24) DraftKings really priced a lot of drivers down for Saturday’s race. It’s an effort to tempt people to play these drivers with Kyle Busch. Kraus is no different. At Charlotte just four weeks back he was $9,200 starting P15 and now he’s starting outside the top 20 and he’s in the mid-$6K range? Shrug it off and play him. He’s had an off year for sure. He looked much better last year especially at Pocono where he finished tenth. But so far this year he has just one top ten in his last ten races and four top 15’s in his last ten races. Be disciplined with exposure to Kraus.

Tyler Ankrum ($6,300; Starting P18) This is right about where Ankrum should be priced. He’s been over $7K and upwards of $8K for a few races, but he’s been awful this year. But he’s hit 25+ points on DraftKings in five of his last seven races. I really hope the ownership isn’t crazy here. But the equipment is great and he needs to start producing results for GMS, and he’s started to show some life over the last few weeks. I can’t explain the drop in the price tag, but Ankrum’s arguably in play for cash games this week.

Jack Wood ($6,000; Starting P9) He didn’t finish Friday’s ARCA race but we should at least value the laps he did run. He grabbed top 15 finishes at Charlotte and Nashville so he can hold his own in good equipment. I prefer Ankrum for the PD at just $300 more but DK really priced these two close together to tempt people to lean heavier on Ankrum, which I will. But trust me, I have Wood in a few builds… That sounded raunch, but it wasn’t intended as such. Wood still returns 4X value if he finishes 14th and if you pair him with the right PD and dominator plays then he could be optimal.

Austin Wayne Self ($5,800; Starting P21) I’m not writing up every cheap option on this slate, but it was a tossup between AWS and Deegan and right now, I trust AWS more. But it’s so damn close. I am hesitant about a ton of exposure to Deegan as she runs this without practice in the truck series. She’s raced here before in ARCA but we saw plenty of chaos here last year and even AWS isn’t exempt from it. Self is usually a solid Top 15-20 play and if we’re getting him starting outside the top 20 then I want exposure at a slightly cheaper price tag than Deegan. I’m mixing in both, just to be clear. But I feel better about AWS. I will also acknowledge that in this range I’m mixing in some shares of Chase Purdy and Ryan Truex but that’s mostly to spread exposure around in this range.

Spencer Boyd ($5,200; Starting P34) Am I playing Boyd in some builds? Yes. Do I feel great about that? HAHAHA… No. This is the cheapest I want to go in order to cram in Kyle Busch in some builds. I like Boyd because of the starting spot. If he somehow cracks the top 25 then he’s hitting value. If I’m being honest, I’m fine if he finishes 28th and gets me 20 points on DraftKings. The nice part about Boyd is that he offers cheap PD and if you’re starting lineup construction with Kyle Busch and Boyd then you have $7,450/driver remaining for the last four spots. With that said, so far this season when he’s started in this range we’ve seen him move up a few spots and get us at least 20 points. I’m not going crazy here as a pay down option, but he makes building around KB51 a little easier.

Core Drivers