NASCAR DFS Playbook Contender Boats 300: Top DraftKings Picks

Many congratulations are owed to Riley Herbst who finally secured his first career win in the Xfinity Series. I said it last week in the Discord, but it seems appropriate for it to happen on a day when he made very little sense as a DFS play. He qualified P10 but had to start from the rear. But he came all the way through the field and pretty much dominated Las Vegas, so much credit has to go his way. But we turn our attention to Homestead-Miami Speedway for the Contender Boats 300. I’ve already professed my love for this track in the Truck Series Playbook. And while the Xfinity Series race has one more race between now and Phoenix, we still have some spots up for grabs in the Championship race in two weeks. Let’s take a look at the drivers and strategies for this afternoon’s Contender Boats 300!

As mentioned in the Truck Series Playbook this track eats tires up. We will see a drastic fall off in speed at this track and that’s what makes it one of the best tracks on the schedule. There are multiple grooves for drivers to run but the best will try their luck running along the wall. This track has some variance to it and Noah Gragson can attest to that.

This race is set for 200 laps, about 66 more than the Truck Series race being held earlier in the afternoon and this one will go green around 3:19pm ET. Two-dominator approaches will be fairly popular although it wouldn’t necessarily surprise me if one driver ran away with this race. But below are the practice notes from Friday’s session. At least Xfinity’s practice and qualifying runs were televised so we were able to get eyes on everyone’s car. But here are my favorite drivers for today’s Xfinity Series race.

Practice Notes

NASCAR DFS Driver Pool

John Hunter Nemechek ($11,500; Starting P2)

As is the case with most NASCAR DFS Playbooks for the Xfinity Series, John Hunter Nemechek kicks things off. He’s been outstanding on the comparable tracks this year and in this package. You can pretty much include last week’s write-up on him in this spot. He won at Auto Club earlier in the year, which is a comparable track in terms of tire wear to Homestead. He then grabbed a top five at Darlington-1 while leading 57 laps, finished second at Charlotte, he won Michigan over the summer, and in the playoffs he’s won at Kansas and Texas. He even finished second last week at Vegas after he had to start from the rear. He’s simply been so dominant in this package that he’s difficult to avoid. He was second in overall speed in practice and followed that up with a P2 qualifying effort.

Cole Custer ($11,000; Starting P1)

JHN was second across all the speed metrics in practice to Cole Custer who was fastest in single lap and 10-lap metrics. He followed that up by winning the pole. Custer had a sluggish start to the season but came along as it progressed, and he’s finished sixth or better in each of the last four races while grabbing dominator points in each appearance. He finished third and fourth in both Darlington races this year and led 46 laps at Auto Club but ultimately finished outside the top 20. He has plenty of experience at Homestead through his Xfinity and Cup Series career. I have no issue playing both him and JHN in the same build in an attempt to collect all the dominator points but you kind of hope he holds JHN off for the first stage and grabs a top five finish.

Austin Hill ($10,500; Starting P4)

I’m skipping over Justin Allgaier ($10,800; Starting P3) simply because I think he overqualified the car. He probably has a top 10 ride, but the practice notes indicate he probably overshot the P3 qualifying effort. But the first two rows are absolutely loaded with championship contenders. But I like Hill for this race. He’s shown up with speed at these intermediate tracks, but it’s been about three months since he won a race and he hasn’t led a lap since Darlington over Labor Day Weekend. But I like the practice metrics because they indicate he has a top four car. However, he has two competitors in front of him that flashed a little more speed.

Chandler Smith ($9,500; Starting P12)

In this range on DraftKings from roughly Sam Mayer to Riley Herbst, we may find some value. It’s likely that most DFS lineups feature two drivers starting in the top four and those drivers are the most expensive names on the slate. So in doing that, most DFS players will likely skip over drivers in this range because they can’t fit them in and they’ll want cheaper options offering position differential. So we may have some leverage here. Chandler Smith wasn’t anything special in practice and qualifying. He ran right around where he qualified. He grabbed a top 10 at Homestead last year in his only race at Homestead but he comes in with some nice momentum. He’s finished top five in three of his last four races and even led 23 laps last week at Vegas. He’s 15 points below the cutoff line so he’ll need another top five finish to stay in contention for the championship race in two weeks.

Sammy Smith ($9,200; Starting P5)

You get the sense that nobody is going to play him. And truthfully, I may not either because I’m only doing three lineups for this race. If I was doing 20, he’d probably make three or four. He had the seventh-fastest single lap in practice, but he actually had the third-fastest 10-lap average as well. Overall Smith has been pretty quiet since his win at Phoenix earlier this year. He’s sprinkled in a few top five finishes but hasn’t flashed that same kind of ceiling. But he’s in a JGR car so we know the upside and speed is validated so keep him in mind for Tournament builds.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. ($8,800; Starting P23)

Jr. had an outstanding run at Bristol last month. He arguably could have won that race as he led 47 laps with 34 fastest laps. Unfortunately, an electrical issue cut his day short. But he’s brought the exact same ride and hopefully got the electrical issue fixed. He had top 10 speed in practice but because of the qualifying order he didn’t get the best track conditions and he’ll start outside the top 20. He’ll certainly be popular but with this being the same car he had at Bristol, there’s top five upside and he’s easy to squeeze into Cash and Tournament builds.

Daniel Hemric ($8,200; Starting P15)

I’m leaning towards the slight discount with Hemric over Brandon Jones ($8,500; Starting P17). Hemric was better in the long run, and I think I still trust him more overall. Both have PD but I imagine more DFS players flock to Jones for the extra spots. Hemric has had some good runs lately, but this is the farthest back he’s started since Daytona-2 so this is arguably the best spot he’s been on paper in months. He’s normally qualifying inside the top 10. A part of me thinks that he thrives on higher tire wear tracks. A few years ago, during his championship season with Joe Gibbs Racing, he led 45 laps at Atlanta prior to the reconfiguration and easily had the best car in the race. But he was wrecked by Kyle Busch and finished 30^th. This Kaulig car obviously isn’t the same level of equipment but I think he prefers these more strategic races. I don’t think I’d commit to him for Cash games, but I love him for Tournaments because he has multiple paths to 5X value.

Derek Kraus ($7,800; Starting P20)

Kraus will likely be a pretty popular play. DraftKings hasn’t really adjusted his price tag despite a five-race sample size. He’s finished top 12 in three races including a pair of top 10 finishes. He’s fine in Cash games but this might be another spot to be underweight in Tournaments. This starting spot and price tag will make him an easy play across the board for most players just quickly building lineups. Kraus was only 15^th in 10-lap averages while he was 17^th in single lap speed. There might be an okay floor but not much of a ceiling despite this being a Kaulig car. I might play him in one of my three builds but don’t want to just automatically plug him into each.

Jeb Burton ($7,300; Starting P28)

Not much leverage with Burton off of Kraus but he’s a pretty easy Cash game play given the starting spot. Burton should be able to finish top 20, but his ceiling might be right around 15^th which is still perfectly fine in Cash games. He will be viewed as a free square though so similar to Kraus I may only play him in one Tournament lineup. He did post a top 10 single lap in practice, but it doesn’t look like he ran 10 consecutive laps to gauge the long run speed. He does have a pair of top 10 finishes here in his career in the Xfinity Series but that was when he was in better equipment. This ride isn’t awful but in this package I don’t think there’s too much top 10 upside. However, he’s still a good value option in Cash games.

Kaz Grala ($6,800; Starting P19)

There’s obviously a ton of variance here. He’s the perfect GPP play. If you look at his DraftKings profile, you’ll see plenty of scores over 40 fantasy points and obviously some bad results as well. But he’s a good driver in modest equipment. But Grala gets the most out of his rides. He was 13^th at Auto Club earlier this year, top 10 at Darlngton-1, and he was top 10 in this package at Kansas and Bristol. My only concern is that it’s been FIVE years since he’s raced at Homestead and the qualifying spot is right around where he ran in practice so he may need some chaos to move up. He still possesses a great ceiling regardless.

Joe Graf Jr. ($6,700; Starting P11)

Obviously I don’t love Graf in this spot. But truthfully, we have to acknowledge that we may not see a ton of drivers move up through the field in the value range. We may need to take some chances on cheaper options that qualified well. Do I want to do that with Brett Moffitt? Not really. Will I take that chance with Graf? Sure because he’s in a Joe Gibbs Racing car and it will have natural top 15 speed. He’s cheap enough where I’d be happy with a top 12 but there’s obviously the higher probability that he goes backward. He finished 11^th at Auto Club earlier this year and ninth at Kansas-2 in this car.

Anthony Alfredo ($6,300; Starting P31)

I’m fine playing Alfredo in Cash games. At best he might be a top 20 car but this equipment also isn’t very good and maybe he doesn’t move up as much as we think. A conservative projection for him might be a top 25 day and that’s it. He did finish 17^th earlier this year at Auto Club and was 15^th at Darlington-1. However, you have to wonder if funding may have exhausted itself or if Alfredo is waiting for the season to be over as he has four finishes outside the top 25 in the playoffs. His practice speeds were roughly in line with where he qualified.

Brennan Poole ($6,000; Starting P29)

Poole had an outstanding run in this race last year with JD Motorsports where he started P24 and finished 14^th. He’s in the same ride and still starts deep in the field. Poole is actually an above average driver. He just doesn’t have much funding. So in this value tier when we look for certain plays, I’m fine putting a little faith in the driver starting P29 even if the equipment isn’t elite because there’s still a shot he can grab a top 20 today.

Ryan Ellis ($5,400; Starting P37)

This is about as deep as I’m willing to go in the driver pool this weekend. Ellis starts dead last after he lost control of the car on his qualifying lap. The good news is that he saved it and didn’t sustain any damage. Ellis basically needs to just move up 10 spots and finish 27^th for value. He can easily do that. He’s finished 27^th or better in over half the races this year. He even has top 20 upside. If there’s a value “punt” in Cash games, it’s Ellis. Even in Tournaments I’m fine plugging him in for salary relief because he can’t get you negative points so the floor is reasonable and he should move up, at the very least, inside the top 30 if he stays clean.

NASCAR DFS Core Drivers