NASCAR DFS Playbook Call811.com Before You Dig 250: Sammy Smith Hungry For Second Short, Flat Track Win

The NASCAR Xfinity Series returns after a week off for Easter to jump right into a Dash 4 Cash race at Martinsville Speedway. Dash 4 Cash is a mid-season incentive program to award a little extra money to four drivers in each race. At COTA, once we weeded through the Cup Series drivers that dominated the top of the leaderboard we were given our Dash competitors for Richmond which turned out to be Sammy Smith, Justin Allgaier, Daniel Hemric, and Sam Mayer. Heading into this weekend’s race we’ll see Chandler Smith, John Hunter Nemechek, Josh Berry, and Kaz Grala compete among themselves for some cash incentives. This means we have no Cup Series drivers in the Xfinity race this weekend, but there are still points to be had as the Xfinity Series looks to provide some excellent racing on Saturday.

I did a fairly thorough track breakdown in the Truck Series Playbook, but to sum it all up, Martinsville is a very short, flat track measuring just a half-mile in length with little-to-no banking. Laps tick off quickly here and it’s easy to lose the lead lap if you’re slow, get in a wreck, or if you have an issue on pit road. Unlike the Truck race it looks like we should get some great weather for Saturday’s race. Friday’s race was a bit of a disappoint from the highlights I’ve seen (of which there aren’t many). 63 of 124 laps were run under yellow due to the threat of weather. That’s just a terrible race from a DFS perspective. 61 green flag runs equates to maybe 18-20 minutes of actual racing. That’s just awful and luckily I only lost three bucks in DFS on Friday otherwise I would’ve felt cheated.

But I’ll try not to dwell too much on last night’s race. The strategy largely remains unchanged where I will mostly build my Tournament lineups with a two-dominator approach while targeting PD and strong finishing results. Last night’s race was a rare exception where, due to the weather conditions, 27 drivers finished on the lead lap at Martinsville and that was only because of the weather and the constant yellow flag laps. Try to remember how easily Kyle Busch started lapping the back of the field just 14 laps into the race. The Truck Series race is largely an exception to most Martinsville races. That won’t happen most races especially if we get a long, green flag run. But still attack the dominator points and find four other drivers that can pay off.

NASCAR DFS Practice Notes

NASCAR DFS Driver Pool

John Hunter Nemechek ($11,000; Starting P2)

A big narrative this week will be Joe Gibbs Racing and their ability to set their cars up for short, flat tracks. It was the same narrative preached at Richmond a couple weeks back and even Phoenix. JHN is off to a great start this year. In six of the seven races in this series he’s finished eighth or better and would’ve had a good finish at COTA if it weren’t for a late spin that dropped him to 27^th. He’s seemingly making his way to the front every week and he has extra incentive this week with Dash 4 Cash. He has a win here in the Truck Series back in 2018 and he finished second just a couple weeks ago at Richmond. He’ll be popular despite the price tag, but you can make it work and he’ll pay off in a huge way if he dominates and wins, which he’s capable of doing. JHN will start on the front row and if he doesn’t take the lead early on, he can still dominate the race in stages two and three.

Chandler Smith ($10,200; Starting P12)

Smith has really had a strong rookie season in the Xfinity Series. He almost won Vegas last month, but did turn it around and score a win at Richmond two weeks ago. That probably elevates his ownership slightly over the likes of Justin Allgaier, Josh Berry, and the next driver we’ll talk about. If there’s a pivot in this range it might be Berry who is very good on this type of track and he has a win at Martinsville. Not to mention, he’s trying to win that extra cheddar in Dash 4 Cash. But Smith has really impressed so far this season and has run well on the short, flat tracks. During his time in the Truck Series he finished 4^th and 6^th at Martinsville and given how he looked at Richmond and Phoenix this year in the 21-car, he should be a contender on Saturday.

Austin Hill ($10,000; Starting P15)

We probably shouldn’t sleep on Hill for this race. He’s been quiet the last two races, but he has the equipment and talent to get to the front of this field and collect dominator points. It also doesn’t hurt that he offers some PD. He was competitive at Phoenix last month having led 22 laps and scoring a top ten. He basically gets 5X value with a top five finish and some dominator points, which he can do. But he may have a more difficult path to breaking the slate if he doesn’t get up front. He finished 9^th and 4^th in the two Xfinity Martinsville races last year and was the runner-up in the Truck Series race at Martinsville in 2021.

Sammy Smith ($9,800; Starting P7) and Sam Mayer ($9,500; Starting P5)

I’m gonna SAMwich these two drivers together and I’ll see myself out shortly after publishing the article because I’m a little hungover and that play on words has me dying as I write these two up. But there’s some dark horse potential to collect some dominator points with these two. Smith won Phoenix earlier this year and he led 40 laps two weeks ago at Richmond. Also doesn’t hurt that he’s in a JGR car this week. It’s been a rough start to the year for Sam Mayer but he’s finished 4^th, 5^th, and 6^th in three races here. It sucks that he’s starting so high, but I do like him and Berry from JRM this week. But it’s always hard to ignore JGR at short, flat tracks and Smith had the second-fastest car in practice yesterday just behind the next driver.

Cole Custer ($9,300; Starting P1)

There are two drivers I believe have 80-90 point ceilings for this race. And they’re both on the front row. JHN is an obvious play given the equipment and the team’s history for nailing the setup. Custer is the other and he’s looking for his breakout race as he’s had an underwhelming start to the 2023 season. Custer grabbed his first top five of the season last week and he’ll need to carry that momentum into this race and I expect significant ownership here with the potential to dominate the first stage. Custer surprisingly had an average running position of 5.5 in the Cup Series race at Martinsville last Fall and most of his Martinsville experience came during his time in the Cup Series. SHR is another team that can nail the setup on this type of track and Custer is viable in all formats. Ryan Truex is a pivot to save some money and target some PD. Truex has a reasonable path to 40-50 points, but most will flock to Custer for the dominator points.

Parker Kligerman ($8,800; Starting P21)

The good news with Kligerman is that he’s typically presented himself as a good DFS play and that’s no different this week. He’s finished top 15 in five of his last six races including three top ten finishes in that span. Kligerman rolls off outside the top 20 and a top ten would return 5X value. This team is also trying to get a solid run for their owner, Scott Borshetta, who was injured in a Trans AM2 race in Atlanta last weekend. I do think it’s probably more likely Kligerman finishes 12^th-15^th so I personally don’t think he hits his ceiling, but he could prove me wrong. He has plenty of experience running this race with the Truck Series where he logged some top ten finishes with a variety of teams.

Brandon Jones ($8,400; Starting P10)

Jones has definitely struggled since leaving JGR to join Jr. Motorsports. He doesn’t have a single top ten finish through seven races this year and for him to be priced in the mid-range is pretty surreal. He did collect some dominator points at Richmond but finished outside the top 20. If there’s a “get right” week for him it could be this week. Jones has historically been very good at Martinsville when he was with JGR. He won this race a year ago and almost backed it up with another win in the Fall that would’ve put him in the Championship Four for Phoenix until he was wrecked by Ty Gibbs, who used to be his teammate. It was a move that shocked everyone, but in that race Jones did lead 98 laps before Gibbs ruined his night. There is some dominator potential here, and maybe some win equity as well since we know the equipment is top notch. It all depends on if Jones can get rid of the yips. He can still return 5X value if he finishes sixth so I love the play in Tournaments.

Kaz Grala ($7,700; Starting P19)

Grala will be a name to keep an eye on simply because he has a little more motivation for this race since he qualified for Dash 4 Cash. I don’t expect him to win this race. In fact, he’ll probably need some chaos to help him in Dash 4 Cash, but he’s had mostly a disappointing season so far aside from his top five at Richmond. The lack of experience is a little concerning, but he does seem more comfortable on flatter tracks. He’s best suited for Tournaments this weekend.

Derek Kraus ($7,500; Starting P12)

Kraus ran the Xfinity race at Richmond a few weeks ago and got himself a top ten. It wasn’t an elite DFS day since he started P11, but a top ten is a top ten and it was his debut in the series. He has plenty of experience here in the Truck Series with a top ten and another top 15 performance at The Paperclip. We’re getting a discount alone on the equipment considering we saw Chandler Smith score a win for Kaulig at Richmond. Kraus can get another top ten and this is a very friendly price tag considering he’s $100 cheaper than he was for Richmond.

Anthony Alfredo ($7,300; Starting P38)

Alfredo has the privilege of starting dead last because he failed tech so many times that he wasn’t allowed to qualify. Alfredo has exceeded many expectations despite being in a BJ McLeod Motorsports car. It seems weird, but he’s gotten it done so far. Heading into Richmond he had five straight finishes in the top 20 before that streak ended two weeks ago. Another top 20 would return 40+ points and there’s clear funding that’s allowed Alfredo’s team to put in better-than-normal equipment in this ride. I do think he’ll draw significant ownership because of the results this year as well as the easy path to 40+ points if he runs a clean race. I’ll suggest being underweight compared to the field because I can’t imagine Alfredo chalk is a good thing, but he’s playable in Cash games.

Parker Retzlaff ($7,400; Starting P4)

It hasn’t been a banner year for Retzlaff since he’s joined Jordan Anderson Racing. But this is still the kind of track he is more comfortable at. He qualified well at both Phoenix and Richmond and scored top 20 finishes at each track, but took on some negative PD. Last year during his time with RSS Racing we really saw what he could do with a top ten at Richmond and a top 12 at Martinsville. Again, the equipment downgrade is probably capping his upside and we may not see that same ceiling until he winds up with a better team. But given his background on flatter tracks I still want some shares, but only in Tournaments because he qualified so high. It’s very likely he goes backward so he’s probably a driver we cap our exposure at 10-15%.

Jeb Burton ($6,700; Starting P31)

A poor qualifying effort means Burton is starting P31. We have to believe that this team can make the proper adjustments and give him a top 20 car because his teammate went out and qualified in the top five. But this is Burton’s home track and previously this year we’ve seen this car finish in the top 15. Burton has been qualifying much better, but he can go out and deliver 35+ fantasy points on Saturday. He’s returning value with a top 20 finish and is easily in play in all formats. In five races here he has three finishes of 11^th or better, but he wrecked out of the other two races as well.

Kyle Sieg ($6,000; Starting P28)

I initially was writing up Joe Graf Jr. who is in the same equipment as the Sieg brothers this week, but Kyle’s been a little more consistent so far this year and he’s $400 cheaper. And overall, Graf just hasn’t been that good even when he’s been in JGR equipment. Sieg might be the kind of driver that finishes between 20^th-25^th but I’ll take him at this price tag if he can manage to get between 25-30 points, and he can get there with a top 20 finish.

Kyle Weatherman ($5,500; Starting P27)

This Kyle Weatherman section is being written ahead of practice and qualifying, but once salaries dropped it was clear he was way too cheap for a driver of his talents. He performed well on the West Coast swing and certainly can get even the worst equipment to a top 15 finish. Practice and qualifying will be very important for this team. FRS Racing is a new team with an affiliation with Richard Childress Racing who will build the team’s cars and engines. That right there signals to me that this car is going to be better than $5,500. A year ago in this race, Weatherman drove Jesse Iwuji’s ride to a 16^th place finish and he also grabbed a top ten at New Hampshire and a top 15 at Phoenix, which are fairly comparable tracks in terms of banking. I fully expect Weatherman to be a popular value play given his reputation for getting the most out of his equipment so this will likely be the chalk value play in Tournaments, especially after he qualified P27.

Ryan Ellis ($5,300; Starting P35)

Ellis might be as cheap as I want to go in Tournaments this week. Is there risk? Certainly, but he’s posted 20 fantasy points in five straight races and while at this price tag that wouldn’t even be 4X value, we know there will be duds from more expensive drivers and Ellis just grabbed a top 15 at Richmond a couple weeks ago and had a top 20 at Phoenix last month. He’s only run one race at Martinsville back in 2021 with BJ McLeod’s team where he did manage to pull off a top 25 finish. Ellis most likely gets lapped, but he can still have a successful DFS day if he moves up and runs a clean race with a top 25 finish.

NASCAR DFS Core Plays

I’m adding a note that while I’m including JHN and Custer in the Cash game Core Plays section, I wouldn’t play them together in Cash games. Both are also viable in Tournaments as well given the obvious potential to dominate this race. The Cash Game drivers can also be played in Tournaments, but I wanted to focus the GPP Core Plays on high-upside pivots in the same price range.

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