NASCAR DFS Playbook Cabo Wabo 250: Top DraftKings Picks

The NASCAR Xfinity Series saw a new driver secure his spot in the playoffs as Sam Mayer scored his first career Xfinity Series win last week at Road America. That marks the 14^th different Xfinity Series driver in as many races to win at Road America. Mayer’s win now means there are eight drivers locked into the playoffs with four spots left across the next six regular season races. The NASCAR Xfinity Series and NASCAR Cup Series head to Michigan International Speedway for some high-speed racing around this wide two-mile track. Let’s take a look at the top NASCAR DFS drivers and strategies for Saturday afternoon’s Cabo Wabo 250.

As mentioned above, this is a two-mile track that requires a lot of horsepower. Some tracks that correlate to Michigan include Kansas, Vegas, Charlotte, and to an extent Auto Club although we see more tire wear at that track. I also believe that Pocono can draw some comparisons when you consider the size and horsepower required to get around the tricky triangle. We also tend to see the best teams and drivers win here. Ty Gibbs won this race last year. A.J. Allmendinger won it in 2021 with Kaulig Racing. Tyler Reddick won this race in 2019, Austin Dillon won in 2018, and Denny Hamlin won in 2017. You get the picture. The best teams, and the best engines, likely get the win and dominator points on Saturday.

Saturday’s race will have 125 laps broken into 30-30-65 lap segments. That gives us about 80+ dominator points to work with depending on how many laps are run under caution. Given how unpredictable this series is, we could see a sloppy final stage similar to last week. Last year’s race saw three drivers collect at least 15 dominator points (they all finished in the top three) while Sammy Smith surprisingly had 23 fastest laps while only leading one lap. 2021 saw Allmendinger absolutely dominate this race with 70 laps led but with only 13 fastest laps. His car that year was phenomenal in clean air and at the high-speed intermediates. But Josh Berry did collect 17.25 dominator points as well. 2019 saw three drivers collect at least 15 dominator points. So I’ll be building out most of my lineups with two dominators in mind. But I also don’t want to dip too low into the value pool for more than one cheap driver. I want as many reliable cars in my lineup as possible to squeeze in as much top ten upside as I can.

Cabo Wabo 250 Practice Notes

NASCAR DFS Driver Pool

Ty Gibbs ($10,800; Starting P8)

It doesn’t really matter where Gibbs starts, he has a great engine under the hood and won this race a year ago where he led 54 laps. Even the year before, he finished second in the first two stages before ultimately finishing 13^th. But he had a driver rating of 108.6 in his debut here and a 137.7 score in his win a year ago. Gibbs has finished top five in his last three Xfinity Series races this year and led 52 laps at Charlotte. He’s an easy favorite to lead laps and win this race. His teammate, John Hunter Nemechek ($10,600; Starting P10), will likely make a handful of my lineups as he has led at least 45 laps this year at Auto Club, Charlotte, and Vegas while scoring a win in Southern California.

Justin Allgaier ($10,500; Starting P2)

In 11 races here, Allgaier’s never scored a win at Michigan. However, he led 17 laps here in 2022, led nine laps in 2021, and he’s finished sixth or better in three straight races here. His speed profile on the comparable tracks is right up there with JHN’s. Allgaier finished third at Auto Club, second at Vegas, and he won at Charlotte where he led 83 laps. Playing any combination of the three most expensive drivers leaves you with at least $28,900 so you can still fit in some decent drivers if we do see the dominator points go to this trio.

Ross Chastain ($10,000; Starting P11)

This is more of a read on the type of speed that Kaulig Racing brought to the track for Saturday’s race. Chastain hasn’t had great results in the Xfinity Series this year because he’s mostly driven for DGM. But he’s finally reunited with Kaulig and it’s the best equipment he’s had in this series. With that being said his fastest lap was right about where he qualified so he’ll need to exceed the practice speed and I don’t know if he can run up front in this race. I’d rather spend up for drivers that provide more confidence they can lead laps.

Austin Hill ($9,800; Starting P3)

The breakdown for Hill is simple. He has four top five finishes in his last five races and he’s apparently the only RCR driver that can win a race as Sheldon Creed tends to shoot himself in the foot all too often. Hill won at Pocono a couple weeks ago and based on the track history above, RCR can prep these cars well for highspeed intermediates. I am slightly more partial to Joe Gibbs Racing and Jr. Motorsports this weekend, but Hill is a noteworthy driver to include in some builds since he’s won four times this year.

Sammy Smith ($9,300; Starting P9)

I love that we can get Sammy Smith into our lineups for only $9,300. Smith started P5 and finished sixth here in 2022, but as we briefly noted earlier he did have 23 fastest laps in that race. That may have come from a pit cycle strategy but he still posted a 106.2 driver rating. He only finished top 20 at Auto Club and Vegas but he did lead 14 laps at the former track and he was top ten at Charlotte. He’s been better at the short, flat tracks this year so if you do fade him, I wouldn’t blame you. But still a driver in great equipment with a car that should contend is hard to pass up.

Carson Hocevar ($8,600; Starting P7)

Hocevar works in Tournament builds when you take into account that he isn’t a full-time driver in this series. So he’s definitely going to race for a win because points don’t mean anything to him this weekend. He’s back in the 77-car for Spire Motorsports where he grabbed a pair of top tens at Darlington and Charlotte. Don’t be too flustered if he pits off cycle before the end of the stages. It’ll likely happen so he can gain track position to start the next stage.

Daniel Hemric ($8,200; Starting P16)

There’s no win equity with Hemric, but he’s in a reliable car and has the ability to put up 40+ points for us on DraftKings. He started P4 and finished eighth here last year, but also finished 2^nd and 12^th here in 2018 and 2017 with Richard Childress Racing. Earlier this year he started P35 at Auto Club and finished 12^th then grabbed a top ten at Vegas the following weekend. He was top five at Pocono a couple weeks ago and does have top five upside for Michigan. Sure, he has some variance but the only two races he’s wrecked out of this year were Daytona and Talladega.

Ryan Sieg ($7,700; Starting P22)

I don’t quite know what to make of Sieg for this race. He’s raced here eight times in the Xfinity Series and finished top 20 in every race. But he hasn’t finished in the top ten here. And truthfully this is one of his worst years as a full-time driver. He only has two top ten finishes and his last one came at Richmond in the beginning of April over four months ago. I don’t like the price tag, but I still trust the experience. You could make the argument that Kyle Sieg ($6,000; Starting P21) could be the better play given his price tag. The younger Sieg finished 15^th at Auto Club, 20^th at Vegas, 11^th at Charlotte, and 16^th at Pocono. As a point-per-dollar play he’s been better than his brother on the high-speed intermediates this year. The Sieg brothers had some delays with their hauler showing up late because of some delays getting to Michigan but the cars apparently unloaded pretty fast so it’s worth keeping an eye on how they perform on Saturday.

Brett Moffitt ($7,500; Starting P12)

Moffitt saw his streak of seven straight top 15 finishes come to an end last weekend and no better time to start a new streak than this weekend at Michigan. Moffitt grabbed top ten finishes at Auto Club and Pocono but finished outside the top 20 at Vegas and Charlotte. But the recent form has been great aside from last week’s issues at Road America. He’s about 82 points out of the final playoff spot. But he does have a chance at getting a top ten at a track like Michigan. He finished eighth here two years ago with Our Motorsports.

Jeremy Clements ($7,000; Starting P27)

Clements is probably okay for Cash games, but I do anticipate he’ll attract a lot of rostership simply because he starts deeper in the field than we’re used to in 2023. His practice speeds weren’t even in the top 25 so I’d say there’s plenty of reason to avoid this play in Tournaments. But overall, in Cash games he provides enough of a floor to play him. But I don’t love the elevated ownership in Tournaments at a track that rewards good equipment so he’s a leverage fade in my opinion this week. He finished 31^st at Michigan in 2022.

Parker Retzlaff ($6,800; Starting P24)

The way qualifying shook out, you have your good equipment drivers starting up front and the pricing and starting spots tier off after that. Retzlaff is a driver I’m interested in because we hope he just hangs around in the top 20 as a cheap value option. Historically he’s better on shorter, flat tracks. But he put up the 13^th-fastest single lap in practice and was top 12 in ten-lap averages. I’m hopeful he can post a personal best result on a track like this. There’s PD for sure, but I am weary of the driver’s fit at this track.

Anthony Alfredo ($6,300; Starting P18)

I loved Alfredo two weeks ago at Pocono and for the same reasons I’ll go back to him here. I just think this car is better for higher speed tracks. He started P26 at Pocono and finished 13^th. He also finished top 20 at Auto Club and Vegas earlier in the year when he got off to a pretty good start before a rough stretch that lasted nearly three months. If the equipment holds up, Alfredo could have some upside. He finished 14^th here last year with Our Motorsports but given the starting spot he’s only live for tournaments.

Brennan Poole ($5,500; Starting P37)

Poole is an experienced driver and this is a cheap investment because he’s in a JD Motorsports ride but I do think he has some top 25 upside. Poole did finish top 25 at Auto Club earlier this year and overall, he’s provided the bare minimum of fantasy points at times this year. He hasn’t started this far back too many times and you may get some leverage here if everyone flocks to Perkins because he starts dead last. Poole might have half the ownership of Perkins in Tournaments.

Blaine Perkins ($5,400; Starting P38)

I hope I’m not jinxing this team, but Our Motorsports has brought pretty good cars to Michigan the last couple seasons. I’ve already touched on Anthony Alfredo’s top 15 finish here last year (although Perkins finished 32^nd in the same race). But in 2021, Tyler Reddick finished 16^th here while Brett Moffitt grabbed a top ten. Perkins has been better on road courses and flatter tracks in this car in 2023, but Kyle Weatherman finished 16^th at Vegas in this car. This car might need some chaos to elevate its floor, but if Perkins can keep it clean, he could provide some value. He also starts dead last which is great because he can’t get negative points. It is worth mentioning he was terribly slow in practice.

Ryan Ellis ($5,200; Starting P35)

Ellis isn’t an elite play, but he has some good vibes going his way as he was announced to be returning to Alpha Prime Racing on a full-time basis for 2024. Ellis has grabbed a handful of top 20 finishes on a variety of tracks this year so he does have some GPP appeal for this race but I’m mostly hoping you don’t need to go down to this range. He finished 27^th after starting P33 in this race a year ago.

NASCAR DFS Core Drivers