The NASCAR Xfinity Series heads back to Sin City to kick off the round of eight! Last week saw Sam Mayer claim yet another road course win, and he needed it badly to advance to the round of eight. We had some surprising news come down this week with the announcement that Sheldon Creed won’t be back with Richard Childress Racing next year. There are some rumors as to where he could end up whether it be Jr. Motorsports or possibly to one of the vacant Joe Gibbs Racing cars. And on top of all that, for this race in particular we have a very chalky play in John Hunter Nemechek starting at the rear. Let’s take a look at the top drivers and strategies for the Alsco Uniforms 302!

 

Las Vegas Motor Speedway is one of those “cookie cutter” intermediate tracks. We actually don’t get too many of these tracks on the Xfinity Series schedule since there’s such an emphasis on road courses. However, we have seen the Xfinity Series run Darlington, Kansas, and Texas already in the playoffs, so we have somewhat of an idea of who is trending well heading into this race. I also believe that with each passing race, Vegas takes on more tire wear. It’s an older surface but the last few years we’ve hyped it as a medium-tire wear track. But as it gets older, we see strategy come into play a little bit more.

Saturday’s race is good for just over 200 laps broken into 45-45-111 lap segments. We’ll have roughly 130 dominator points to account for so two-dominator builds are certainly recommended. And the great news is that we already had practice and qualifying Friday evening so we have no need for updates to the Playbook. Practice notes are below and Core Drivers are listed at the bottom of the article.

Practice Notes

NASCAR DFS Driver Pool

John Hunter Nemechek ($11,500; Starting P38)

Easily the chalk play for this race. He looked like a pre-qualifying favorite to win it all, but the team discovered an oil leak and had to make repairs to fix it. So they couldn’t qualify and unfortunately will start P38. I wouldn’t be surprised if he was in the top 20 after 10 laps and if he was in the top 10 by the end of the stage. If he finishes eighth with a few dominator points he’s returning 6X value. But even for a Cash game floor, he shouldn’t have a problem getting 5X value. So far in the playoffs he’s won at Kansas and Texas which are comparable 1.5-mile intermediates, and he has seven wins on the year. Plus, he finished third at Darlington which is a higher tire wear track and Vegas is becoming an older surface where tires and strategy come into play a little more. JHN had the best 10-lap average by over a tenth of a second.

Austin Hill ($10,800; Starting P10)

I’m not completely fading Justin Allgaier ($11,200; Starting P7) but following practice and his team’s qualifying effort yesterday he didn’t really seem overly confident in his car. I’m paraphrasing but he said something along the lines of “we really don’t know what we have with this car at the moment,” which is kind of surprising after a full practice and qualifying session. I’ll still have some exposure because he could easily win this race. But so can Austin Hill. Hill won this race in the Spring with a final lap pass of Chandler Smith. Hill also has some wins at this track from his time in the Truck Series and overall, the 21-car for RCR has been fast at every track this year. That wasn’t really the case on Friday though, but the car seemingly showed up in practice with plenty of speed so I can get on board with this play.

Cole Custer ($10,500; Starting P2)

Custer looked very sporty in practice and qualifying. He posted the fastest single lap in practice and the second-best 10-lap average just behind JHN. Custer qualified on the front row and showed better speed than Berry in practice so it’s possible he can get around him early on. He was caught up in a wreck at Kansas a few weeks ago, but overall he’s had some good showings on intermediates this year. Based on pure speed he should be a dominator candidate for this race.

Josh Berry ($10,000; Starting P1)

Berry was eliminated from the playoffs last week after the Roval, so there’s less pressure on him this week. He can just focus on finishing the season out before his Cup Series promotion next year. Luckily, he comes to a track where he’s raced very well at historically. In five Xfinity Series races at Vegas in his career, he’s never finished worse than seventh. In fact, he has four straight top five finishes and he’s won the last two Fall races at this track. So it’s fitting that he won the pole for the fourth time in his career and he has a chance to collect another top five finish with some dominator points in this race.

Chandler Smith ($9,200; Starting P4)

Chandler Smith is probably better suited for Tournaments for this particular race. He starts P4 which is high and we really haven’t seen him lead too many laps lately. Perhaps he’s a bit worn out from the more-involved schedule with Xfinity than the Truck Series. He got off to such a hot start earlier this year with three top five finishes on the West coast swing of Auto Club, Vegas, Phoenix. He led 118 laps in the Vegas race and almost won it. Then he won at Richmond and had a very nice showing at Nashville but since then he’s been pretty quiet. He’s still in the playoffs though so he has plenty to race for so I like getting exposure in Tournament formats.

Sheldon Creed ($9,000; Starting P15)

It was announced earlier this week that Creed won’t return to the 2-car for Richard Childress Racing. That’s a bummer. I still like the guy but he’s either unlucky or he shoots himself in the foot. His teammate, Austin Hill, won this race in the Spring so we know these cars are good enough to win outright. He had an engine issue in this race a year ago, but in two Spring races at Vegas he’s finished top 10 in both. So far in the playoffs on the comparable tracks he’s finished eighth (Darlington), third (Kansas), and eighth (Texas). But I do think he likely needs a few dominator points and a good finish to pay off.

Daniel Hemric ($8,700; Starting P6)

Hemric won’t have a ton of ownership but I do think he prefers this style of track over any other. Hemric posted the second-fastest single lap in practice and was also top five in 10-lap averages. He finished 10th here earlier this year and was top 10 to kick off the playoffs. He got bounced from the playoffs last week, but similar to Josh Berry, he can just focus his attention on these last four races before Hemric heads back to the Cup Series next year. Hemric has finished eighth or better in each of his last three Fall races at Vegas. He is strictly a GPP-only play for this race.

Myatt Snider ($8,200; Starting P19)

Snider represents the mid-range chalk for this race. He starts just inside the top 20 and we know this car has plenty of top 10 equity. Now this is the first intermediate track he’s run this year, but he finished fifth at Datyona to kick the year off, he was sixth at Portland, and he grabbed a top 15 last week at the Roval after starting P31. Snider is a bit of a tire wear specialist as Homestead is one of his best tracks so maybe that translates to Vegas as well. A top 10 finish would give him 43 fantasy points so that’s a pretty damn good floor and we know the equipment is good enough to get there.

Brett Moffitt ($7,800; Starting P27)

Moffitt didn’t have a great showing here in the Spring, but I anticipate he’ll be a popular PD target in this race starting outside the top 25. He actually grabbed top 10 finishes at Kansas and Texas last month and while that’s certainly possible for this race, I’m setting the expectation for a top 15. That would likely be enough for us to get a 5X return.

Parker Retzlaff; $7,400; Starting P5)

Obviously this is a GPP-only type play with Retzlaff. He’s starting incredibly high and likely goes backward, but there’s still top 10 equity and maybe he can snag a few fastest laps along the way. Prior to Texas, Retzlaff rattled off four straight top 15 finishes at Daytona, Darlington, Kansas, and Bristol. He stared P37 and finished sixth at Charlotte earlier in the year, so he does have the potential to go out and finish top 10 and if he doesn’t lose too many spots then he’s a great GPP play with very lower ownership. This isn’t a guy that you go super heavy on. You probably only need him in 3/20 lineups and that’ll give you enough leverage. His teammate, Jeb Burton ($7,500; Starting P18), has a better starting spot and far more experience if you’re looking for a safer pivot in this range.

Connor Mosack ($7,000; Starting P28)

I don’t really believe Mosack is all that good. But his equipment truly isn’t terrible with Sam Hunt Racing. I don’t even like this price tag, but I’m hoping that my hunch is right that he can keep it clean for this race. He’s actually had some decent runs in the playoffs so I’m hoping for just a top 20 in this situation. He finished 14th at Kansas last month but the speed in practice was right around where he qualified. I wouldn’t fault anymore for avoiding this chalk bomb.

Rajah Caruth ($6,000; Starting P35)

I haven’t written Caruth up too much whether he’s competed in the Truck or Xfinity Series. However, I do like him for this race. He starts P35 so there’s obvious position differential upside. He finished 16th at Darlington last month and also grabbed top 20 finishes at Bristol and the Roval. Maybe he’s starting to mature and develop right in front of us? I like the way he’s trending either way. Vegas isn’t a super technical track and if his team can manage their tires then he has room for another top 20 with plenty of PD to boot.

Ryan Ellis ($5,200; Starting P32)

I think Daniel Dye ($5,300; Starting P23) is viable as well. But Ellis is $100 cheaper and has more room for position differential. Dye had a great run in his debut at Texas, but I trust the sample size with Ellis for this race. Additionally, Ellis grabbed top 20 finishes at Kansas and Texas last month and he even started P36 in this race earlier in the year and finished 27th

C.J. McLaughlin ($4,800; Starting P37)

Nothing fancy here with McLaughlin. This is a cheap PD target that you hope can finish 10 spots ahead of where he starts and get 5X value. He had similar starting spots last month on some similar tracks. At Kansas he started P38 and finished 22nd and at Texas he started P37 and finished 25th. And he did it driving in the same RSS car he’ll be in today. The qualifying effort and speed in practice is alarming but there’s a good floor if he can finish 27th or better.

Joey Gase ($4,700; Starting P36) 

Gase has an average starting spot of 32.8 with an average finish of 25.8 in the Xfinity Series this year. For that reason, I can punt to him when he’s starting this deep in the field. He had a fuel pump issue at this track earlier in the year, but he did finished 24th at Kansas and 26th at Texas last month. He basically returns 5X value if he finishes 27th this weekend. Anything more than that would be gravy for us. But I also want to acknowledge Dawson Cram ($4,600; Starting P21) as a GPP pivot. Cram was actually pretty solid in practice and I would have loved a little more PD out of him. Now the equipment is pretty old according to some tweets I found on Twitter but he absolutely piloted the ride to a great P&Q effort. Gase is certainly the safer option given their respective starting spots.

NASCAR DFS Core Drivers

Cash GamesTop TierMid-TierValue Plays
 John Hunter Nemechek ($11,500; Starting P38)Myatt Snider ($8,200; Starting P19)Ryan Ellis ($5,200; Starting P32)
 Josh Berry ($10,000; Starting P1)Brett Moffitt ($7,800; Starting P27)C.J. McLaughlin ($4,800; Starting P37)
    
GPP Plays/PivotsTop TierMid-TierValue Plays
 Austin Hill ($10,800; Starting P10)Sheldon Creed ($9,000; Starting P!5)Connor Mosack ($7,000; Starting P28)
 Cole Custer ($10,500; Starting P2)Daniel Hemric ($8,700; Starting P6)Daniel Dye ($5,300; Starting P23)
  Jeb Burton ($7,500; Starting P18)Joey Gase ($4,600; Starting P36)