The NASCAR Cup and Xfinity Series are both down to just two races left this season and we kick off the Round of Eight in Las Vegas. This isn’t the last 1.5-mile track on the schedule but it is the last of the tri-ovals and we were fortunate to get practice and qualifying Friday night. More on that shortly. AJ Allmendinger was able to clinch his fifth win of the season last week as he once again dominated the Roval claiming his fourth win in as many years. The downside is the remaining four races are at tracks he has just been okay at this year. Noah Gragson has raced at his home track of Las Vegas seven times and he’s never finished worse than sixth, but he’s also never won. These two have won the last six races in the Xfinity Series. Do we see them continue their dominant run or will someone else find themselves in victory lane and locked into the championship race in Phoenix? Here are this week’s NASCAR DFS picks and strategies for Las Vegas.

 

It’s always nice to get plenty of time to digest practice and qualifying when offering up the Playbook. The downside is that the track conditions will be far different when they actually run this race. P&Q were run around the time that the sun was setting and the track was cooling. So the conditions were much more favorable to those that qualified later in the evening as the track cooled. And that’s one thing you have to consider for Saturday’s race. Cars that were slower for practice may have been so because they were trying to nail the set up for Saturday’s race which will be directly in the afternoon sun in Vegas when the track is hotter and more slick.

Saturday’s race is scheduled for 201 laps (45-45-111 lap segments). I can’t really explain the extra lap when you could do 200 laps for an even 300 miles but to each their own. There is one obvious PD play that we’ll touch on for Saturday’s race in the player pool. But you can take a variety of approaches here. A two-dominator approach is feasible but I’ll mix in some one-or-three-dominator approaches as well in the event one driver dominates this race (which I don’t find as likely) or if the leader points are more spread out to three drivers. We don’t have the greatest contests for Saturday’s action, but still enough to make a little coin so let’s dig in for the last tri-oval race on the 2022 schedule!

Alsco 302 Practice Notes

NASCAR DFS DraftKings Top Plays

Ty Gibbs ($11,000; Starting P3) 

Gibbs was fastest in practice but qualified P3 because Allmendinger took advantage of a slightly cooler track. Gibbs won this race in the Spring and finished top three at Charlotte, Texas, and Kansas as well. You know what you’re getting with this play. There’s plenty of win equity and dominator potential. You do have to wonder if he’s a bit worn out having to run two schedules to finish the year. But he’s in contention for the playoffs still so we have plenty of upside if he can get to the front.

Noah Gragson ($10,800; Starting P4)

Gragson runs well here as his average driver rating across seven races is over 100 and it’s been under 94 in any single race. As mentioned at the top he’s never finished worse than sixth here and I wouldn’t be surprised to see that trend continue on his home track. He finished second here in the Spring to Gibbs while leading over 50 laps and he’s been phenomenal on the comparable tracks this year. 

Justin Allgaier ($10,600; Starting P10) and Josh Berry ($9,900; Starting P12)

These two were pretty slow in practice, but overqualified the cars as the track was cooling down. These two are not idiots. They’re on a dominant team in the Xfinity Series. I’m treating the slow practice times as if they just wanted to get laps in because the setup for the cars was probably for a hot afternoon day in the desert, and not at night. Allgaier has been solid here with a driver rating over 100 in 12 of his 16 races at Vegas and he’s led 60+ laps in each of the last two. He’s also finished in the top five in half his races here including three runner-up finishes. Berry has raced here three times and won this race a year ago. He’s been solid in terms of finishing position but we haven’t seen him truly dominate a race since his win at Charlotte back in May. Following practice he did not that he was happy with the car and that it didn’t experience much fall off so he seems happy with what he’ll be driving on Saturday.

Trevor Bayne ($10,400; Starting P2)

Bayne starts on the front row for Saturday afternoon’s race and he’s looked great when he has run in the Xfinity Series this year. He finished third at Auto Club (led 24 laps), fourth at Phoenix (led 38 laps), and he was runner-up at Nashville and New Hampshire. The win hasn’t been there for the part-time driver but the upside is evident. The problem with Bayne, Gibbs, and the Toyotas is they were very fast Friday night, but will it translate on the track in higher temperatures? If the Kaulig cars continue to be mediocre on intermediates this year then that bodes well for Bayne’s ability to get a strong run out of this car immediately. Surprisingly, Bayne is Bob Pockrass’ pick to win today’s race.

AJ Allmendinger ($10,100; Starting P1)

He’s only being acknowledged because he’s on the pole and should lead about 15-20 laps and potentially finish eighth or better. If he does that he has a path to being optimal. Dinger has five wins this year but one came two weeks ago at a superspeedway while the other four came on road courses. He just hasn’t had the same success on intermediates like he did last year. But you can take comfort in the fact he’s on the pole, which gives him early dominator potential and in his last three races here he’s led at least 20 laps in each race and finished top ten (with one win) in all three as well.

John Hunter Nemechek ($9,200; Starting P11)

This is a great spot for a driver that showed top three speed in practice, but again will it translate to this afternoon’s race? JHN has looked great whether driving for Sam Hunt Racing or Joe Gibbs Racing this year and we all know he’s in contention for the Camping World Truck Series playoffs. The concern is that the finishes haven’t been there on a consistent basis. We did see him lead 60 laps a couple weeks ago at Texas although he was caught up in a wreck. Without any dominator points he’s hitting value with a top five finish which he dd earlier in the year in this car at Phoenix and Darlington. He’s been great on these intermediates in the Truck Series so hopefully that experience and last night’s speed carry over to this afternoon.

Brandon Jones ($8,800; Starting P7)

Here is a straight up GPP only play. This is actually one of Jones’ best tracks as noted on the broadcast during practice & qualifying considering he has more career top tens at Vegas than any other track. There’s always a little win equity as well if he stays clean. The Toyotas in general were fast in practice although the track conditions will be different for the actual race. For all the variance that tends to accompany him most weeks he’s finished 11th or better here in six straight races. He was tenth here in the Spring and has run well on the intermediates this year. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s a dark horse to come out of nowhere and win the race too.

Riley Herbst ($8,500; Starting P36)

And here we have the chalkiest play on the entire slate. Herbst was top five in single-lap speed in practice and third overall in the ten-lap run. He spun the car on his qualifying lap but saved it from any damage. The car is fine and he’ll be starting at the rear and this is also his home track. In two of his last three races here he’s gotten into a wreck so don’t lock him into all your builds, but he’s an obvious play in Cash games. He’s easily giving you value if he finishes top 18 and he has top ten, maybe even top five upside today.

Anthony Alfredo ($7,900; Starting P21)

Here is this range of drivers like Ryan Sieg, Alfredo, Myatt Snider, Jeremy Clements, etc. They’re all just kind of the same driver in terms of DFS plays. I think I’ll take Alfredo because he starts eight spots behind Sieg and he comes in with five straight top 20’s. Snider is $500 cheaper and starts behind Alfredo, but I’m not sold on the ceiling for either. You really want 40 points in this range. Snider is in the 31-car which Ty Dillon pushed to a top ten finish last year. All four are in consideration for tournaments, but if you read on you’ll see there’s more salary relief that could allow us to pay up for more DFS upside.

Parker Retzlaff ($7,800; Starting P27)

I think he starts deep enough to where I want exposure this week. I wasn’t high on him a couple weeks ago at Texas (which was the correct call) and I do think he could fall victim to the bumps coming out of turns one and two. He’s been greater on the shorter, flat tracks so I’m hoping we see him run Martinsville (which I think he’ll be in the 38) and Phoenix. He’s still getting adjusted to these intermediates, but the price is elevated which I think will keep DFS players off him and I still think he can steal a top 15 here although the equipment might be unreliable with Our Motorsports.

Nicholas Sanchez ($7,600; Starting P22)

I played some shares of him a few weeks ago at Texas and it paid off. I’m hoping with the higher price tag, that’ll keep people off him because this is a $1,500 jump. But he’s in a great spot for GPP’s. He rolls off 22nd but was 17th in single-lap speed and 11th in ten-lap averages. He’s also in the 48-car which we know has speed and while the jury is still out on Sanchez’s upside, there’s potential here since he’s collected some wins in ARCA and hopefully the DFS community pays down at this spot. I wouldn’t play Sanchez in Cash games but love him for tournaments.

Kyle Weatherman ($7,100; Starting P26)

Weatherman probably should’ve qualified the car better, but he always tends to get the most out of this 34-car whenever he can get in it. He has seven top 20 finishes in 15 races with this car. That may not sound great, but the equipment is questionable and he certainly pushes it to the limit. The practice numbers weren’t great, but I’m buying in for Saturday’s race. I think he still has top 12-15 upside which would return over 40 points for our tournament builds.

Stefan Parsons ($6,600; Starting P17) 

This isn’t Parsons’ best track. But at the same time, we also haven’t seen him on a run quite like this before. Last week was an outlier, but we saw drivers like James Davison, Sage Karam, and Stefan Parsons put up solid performances before wrecking at the Roval. All season long Alpha Prime has been a revolving door of mediocre (at best) drivers, but Parsons is the one truly giving us top 15 upside in this ride. He finished 33rd at Vegas earlier this year but that was with BJ McLeod’s team. The car basically had top 20 speed in both practice metrics and he qualified he roughly where he ran in practice. Because of the starting spot we really need some chaos for him to be optimal. There’s still top 15 upside, but I’d relegate exposure to just tournaments. Kris Wright is actually an interesting pivot for $200 less. I can’t believe I’m saying this, especially after the price hike, but Wright had top 20 speed in ten-lap averages. But we’ve seen a horrifically low floor from him in the 68-car. But there’s speed. The question is if he can keep the car clean. He starts deep enough where he has PD and we know the car can get a good finish. Don’t have as much faith in the driver though.

Kyle Sieg ($5,900; Starting P38)

Sieg is likely to be the Cash game value lock since he starts dead last and can’t accumulate negative points. For whatever reason, he didn’t run a qualifying lap. He gets 20 points if he simply finishes 30th so he’s an easy play in Cash games. In GPP’s he’s worth exposure but remember don’t go overboard here. He is likely optimal with a finish in the top 20-25 but he’s going to be so heavily-owned and he probably isn’t optimal if he has an issue or only finishes 30th. He did finish 16th here in the Spring, so again he’s not a full fade but don’t thrown him into all your lineups either. Find some leverage.

Ryan Vargas ($4,900; Starting P35), Hailie Deegan ($4,800; Starting P20), and David Starr ($4,600; Starting P37)

I’ll lump these three together as my sub-$5,000 targets. Vargas has run three races here with a pair of top 25 finishes and a wreck in last year’s race. He’s been wildly unreliable but there’s an easy path to value if he can simply finish this race. Starr is another deep-field tournament play. He’s hitting 5x value if he can just finish 28th, which he can certainly do if he stays clean. To his credit, Starr has finished his last handful of races here so I hope this isn’t a jinx. In ten races here he’s only finished outside the top 30 twice and he’s finished 21st, 29th, 24th, 26th, and 19th in his last five races here all in comparable equipment. While everybody crams in Kyle Sieg in tournaments, I’ll be pivoting to Vargas and Starr. Hailie Deegan is the wild card. She qualified very well and was 16th in single-lap speed and top ten in ten-lap averages. My concern is if she gets bullied in her Xfinity Series debut. She’s not a terrible driver in my opinion. She’s had her up’s and down’s but we also need to keep in mind, she’s been more comfortable on 1.5-mile tri-ovals. She made her debut in the Truck Series at Kansas two years ago and finished 16th. She has struggled in three races at Vegas in the trucks but I still think she can be sprinkled into some tournament builds since the car looked fast in practice.

NASCAR DFS EXAMPLE LINEUPS

The Example Lineups (yes, we’ll have lineups today) will be posted in the NASCAR DFS Discord Channel no later than 2:00pm ET.

 

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