NASCAR DFS Playbook Ag-Pro 300: Austin Hill Wins The Pole At Talladega

With Martinsville Speedway in the rearview mirror, NASCAR gives us a complete 180 of the racing we saw last week. We go from a short, flat track like Martinsville to a monstrous superspeedway in Talladega. Again, this week will be a Dash 4 Cash race so no full-time Cup drivers are allowed here. So it’s a good, clean Xfinity Series field at a superspeedway. There are some obvious drivers that we will target based on name recognition and success in this style of racing. But overall this is a week to be mindful of how much we’re playing in DFS so don’t blow your bankroll entirely on this or the Cup Series race. It’s a good week to just enjoy the race and play an amount you’re comfortable losing with the hope we hit big. But let’s dive into the drivers and strategies for Saturday’s Ag-Pro 300. 

We have no practice this week so we’re pretty much basing our lineup construction on track history and starting position. These kinds of races are expensive for a lot of teams. Cars wreck at a higher rate and it just tends to be an expensive weekend for teams when you consider damage, repairs, travel, etc. So they eliminate practice because, 1. Practice doesn’t really matter at a track like Talladega, and 2. Teams don’t want to junk their cars in practice.

Talladega Superspeedway is a behemoth of a track. It is 2.66 miles in length with roughly 33 degrees of banking in the turns. The Daytona 500 may be the Super Bowl of NASCAR, but Talladega is a little bit longer and wider. But still, this is the kind of track where all teams have a chance to win. Drafting is the name of the game and while it produces some boring racing on television, it’s exciting to watch in person. Surviving until the end of the race is key because you want to put yourself in position to win, and to be in position you need to survive the first 100 laps.

Saturday’s Xfinity Series race will have 113 laps which equates to a little over 300 miles. 113 laps, and when we account for cautions, means we’ll have about 68-73 dominator points to work with. That isn’t a ton, but typically we don’t go too heavy on the pole sitter for a superspeedway and you’re trying to nail six drivers that finish in the top 12 including the winner. Here’s the other wrinkle, the last couple Xfinity Series races at Talladega have been somewhat boring. Last year’s Fall race was run mostly clean until the final lap or two. All in all there were only three cautions for 11 laps and two of those cautions were for stage breaks. Last Spring was a bit different with ten cautions for 39 laps and only 20 drivers finished on the lead lap. The 2021 Fall race had just five cautions for 21 laps, while the Spring race that year had four cautions for 15 laps. Fastest lap points tend to be more evenly distributed in these races because of the draft, but don’t be surprised if one driver collects a healthy amount of laps led. Austin Hill led 60+ laps in both Talladega races last year, but finished 14^th and 27^th respectively. 

Be sure to check out this week's NASCAR DFS Podcast as Matt and I preview some drivers and strategies to consider for Sunday's Cup Series race from Talladega!

NASCAR DFS Driver Pool

Kaulig Racing

Since Justin Haley’s promotion to the Cup Series, Kaulig Racing has been okay on superspeedways. But who could forget the 2019-2021 stretch where Haley, A.J. Allmendinger, and even Jeb Burton scored wins on superspeedways? Last year was a struggle because it looked like the team had invested more in the Cup Series cars, but Chandler Smith has added some excitement to this team and all three cars are viable this week assuming the team nails the setup and the three drivers work together. I still wouldn’t play all three together, but there’s an argument for all three drivers. In last year’s Truck Series race at Atlanta, Chandler Smith ($9,500; Starting P11) started on the pole and led 21 laps and finished fourth. He grabbed a top 12 at Daytona earlier this year, but had an equipment issue at Atlanta last month. Daniel Hemric ($9,100; Starting P9), as always, has both good and bad results at Talladega. He finished 8^th here in the Fall of last year, but wrecked in the Spring race. He also has top five finishes here from his time with JGR and Jr. Motorsports. Hemric also finished second last month at Atlanta-1. Derek Kraus ($7,500; Starting P14) is still getting used to life in the Xfinity Series, but he grabbed top ten finishes at Martinsville and Richmond. Those are two completely different tracks in comparison to Talladega, but he has experience in the Truck Series on this type of track. The lack of practice may knock him down a peg, but I still think these three drivers are live for Tournaments.

Austin Hill ($10,500; Starting P1)

He’s the easy favorite to win this race. Despite the poor finishes at Talladega last year, he did lead a combined 127 laps between both races and we know he’s a winner on superspeedways and drafting tracks. He won at Daytona and Atlanta last year and sure enough he’s already won at Daytona and Atlanta this year. Hell, even for the Cup Series race he opened at 20-1 to win the Cup Series race in a Beard Motorsports car. Now of the three “drafting” tracks, it does look like Talladega is his worst track. But he’s still arguably the best drafter in this field and will attract ownership despite him starting on the pole. I’m playing three-to-five lineups and he’ll likely only be in one of them.

Josh Berry ($10,000; Starting P20)

Berry’s an intriguing PD play and it makes sense. He’ll probably be popular in Cash games but I wouldn’t consider him a lock because he’ll start in the middle of the field. Last year at Dega he finished 5^th and 11^th and he’s shown consistency this year. Despite finishing 26^th at Daytona he did lead 17 laps, and he’s finished eighth or better in every race since then including Atlanta.

Cole Custer ($9,700; Starting P18)

I’ll be brief because his results aren’t that great on paper at superspeedways. But even in drafting tracks like Daytona and Atlanta this year, he’s finished top 12 at both tracks and he’s starting in the middle of the field which does make him viable in Tournaments. The equipment and name recognition will pump up his ownership a bit so I’d rather pivot in this range. 

Ryan Truex ($8,900; Starting P13)

Truex isn’t a full-time driver but he’s looked strong in the three races he’s run with JGR this year. Honestly, the only comparable track might be Atlanta given the nature of how that track now runs, but he did finish third there a month ago. But even if we look at his 2022 results, he finished third at Atlanta-2 and he was 12^th at Daytona-1. The one downside to JGR and the Toyota’s is that only seven of them are running in this race so they’ll likely need to work and pit with the Fords to offset that large number of Chevy’s. A pivot in this range to consider over Truex or even Custer would be Sam Mayer ($8,700; Starting P16). Mayer was caught up in a wreck at Daytona (on the last lap when he was in contention for the win), but he still got out front and led 14 laps and he grabbed a top ten at Atlanta-1 last month. Mayer started in a similar spot at Talladega in the Fall and finished second so I do like him as a mid-range pivot for Tournaments.

Brandon Jones ($8,500; Starting P21)

Jones is coming off a season-best finish with a top five at Martinsville last week. It was a great showing for Jones who came over from JGR and had plenty of struggles in his first two months with the team. Jones finished 14^th at Daytona in February and 19^th at Atlanta last month. But the price tag in the mid-range for a JRM car is intriguing because there is always going to be win equity with Jones, but he’s also the ultimate GPP play. In ten races at Talladega, Jones has finished second on two occasions, but he’s also wrecked three times. The equipment is still great and he has plenty of Chevy’s to work with as mentioned before.

Parker Kligerman ($8,300; Starting P38)

His results have been all over the spectrum this year with a few 50+ point DFS performances on DraftKings. He didn’t finish well at Daytona, but that race was finished under a caution after Sam Mayer flipped on the last lap, but he grabbed a top five finish at Atlanta-1 last month. Even last year he finished sixth at Talladega in this car and Jade Buford has had success in this car on superspeedways as well. Kligerman lost a tire on his qualifying lap and will start dead last. He can’t get you negative points so Cash game builds will start with him and Jeremy Clements, but Kligerman’s still viable for Tournaments as well.

Riley Herbst ($8,200; Starting P15)

Herbst is quietly stringing together a very strong year and while we mocked him a few years ago for being so unreliable, he’s returned better results since joining SHR, but we just haven’t seen the wins. In four races at Talladega with SHR he’s finished 4^th, 7^th, and 11^th and in the other race he finished 27^th but did lead 26 laps before being caught in a wreck. Following Atlanta’s new re-configuration he’s finished in the top ten in all three races and he finished fifth there last month while leading 11 laps. Even at Daytona he’s finished 6^th and 4^th in the last two Spring races. So his average finishes in general are dragged down because of some poor results he had with JGR. But there has been a shift since joining SHR and overall he has matured a little bit. Earlier this year in the Daytona 500 he started P38 and finished 10^th. So while we won’t go particularly heavy on any one driver, he is a guy that can grab a good finish and there is a little win equity here.

Sheldon Creed ($8,000; Starting P2)

Well as much as we may like his teammate, Austin Hill, on Saturday we can give a little love to Sheldon Creed. Does he have a tendency to run into some bad luck? Yes, but there’s been speed in this car and there are plenty of Chevy’s to draft and work with in this race. In the Truck Series, Creed never finished worse than 12^th in three races and he led a few laps in each as well. In his debut in the Xfinity Series at Dega he wrecked in last year’s race but finished 12^th in the Fall race. He also qualified in the first two rows in each race last year. It’s always a gamble with this guy but there’s still GPP appeal and his price tag keeps dropping. He will lineup up on the front row next to his teammate. It’s not wise to play the front row on this style of track but given Hill’s dominance at superspeedways there’s clear win equity with this team but most of it resides with Hill. 

Jeb Burton ($7,800; Starting P8)

Jeb Burton does have a win at Talladega, but that was two years ago when he was with Kaulig Racing. Last year he was with Our Motorsports and while he did finish 15^th and 17^th, it was clear there was an equipment downgrade. Now he’s with Jordan Anderson Racing. I subscribe to the theory this equipment is an upgrade over Our Motorsports. So far this year Burton finished 11^th at Daytona after starting P20. He started and finished 16^th at Atlanta-1. He grabbed top 15 finishes at Vegas, Richmond, and Martinsville so the equipment is good and there are plenty of Chevy’s in the field for this team to draft and pit with. Most importantly, we haven’t seen equipment issues for this team. Jordan Anderson himself is even a respectable superspeedway racer so the writing is on the wall for this car and organization to have a solid day if they avoid the carnage. Due to the qualifying spot he’s better suited for large-field, multi-entry Tournaments.

Ryan Sieg ($7,700; Starting P31)

Ryan Sieg is a good driver on a mid-level team but his results on superspeedways speak for themselves. So far this year he finished 8^th at Daytona (Started P22) and 11^th at Atlanta-1 (Started P14). In his last five races at Talladega he’s finished 11^th or better and in four of those races he’s finished in the top five. Consistent? Sure. Is it a guarantee he finishes there again? No. However, Sieg went out and qualified outside the top 30 so he’s viable in all formats. 

Kaz Grala ($7,400; Starting P30)

I don’t have as much faith in Grala as I do Sieg, but these races are so hard to predict and even a driver with a terrible resume in drafting races has appeal if they start this far back. Grala had an engine issue at Daytona and finished 32^nd and he finished 35^th at Atlanta-1 after being caught in a wreck. Even a year ago in this race he was caught up in a wreck so proceed with caution. There might be safer plays in this range, but on paper he’s a PD play to consider.

Jeremy Clements ($6,900; Starting P37)

Clements will be a popular Cash game play and likely a heavily-owned Tournament play as well and it makes sense. He’s starting in the last row next to Parker Kligerman. Clements started P38 at Daytona two months ago and finished 17^th while he started P23 at Atlanta and finished 15^th. Both performances returned 50 and 37 points on DraftKings respectively. The PD alone makes him a great DFS play. He started in this exact same spot in the Fall and finished 20^th. Another top 20 finish would return at least 40 points on DraftKings.

Garrett Smithley ($5,300; Starting P29)

Smithley really only has DFS appeal when it comes to superspeedways. In his career in the Xfinity Series he has an average starting spot of 32.0 and an average finish of 13.7 and at Daytona it’s almost the same result with an average starting spot of 28.6 and an average finishing position of 17.1 so he tends to move up by avoiding carnage. That wasn’t the case at Atlanta last month but it’s safe to assume he still has top 20 appeal.

Other Value Drivers For Consideration – There are some nice value options starting far back that have top 15-20 potential if there’s carnage. Ryan Ellis comes to mind since he’s starting P36 and that’s a pretty good floor. A lot of people will play him in Cash because he’s starting in the back three rows. Joey Gase is a name I like for Tournaments after he grabbed a top 20 at Daytona two months ago, plus he finished 21^st and 16^th at the two Talladega races last year for the Xfinity Series. Blaine Perkins is another PD target that’s affordable but I never seem to get that guy right. Cesar Bacarella is a contrarian option for Tournaments. He’ll be overlooked in Cash games with people playing Kligerman, Clements, Ellis, Bilicki, Gase, and Perkins. But Bacarella starts P28 and still has sneaky appeal if he runs a clean race. In reality the only driver under $6,000 I’m not interested in is Dexter Stacey. 

NASCAR DFS Core Drivers

While these are considered “Core” drivers, please note that no driver is truly off the table. We will look at the optimal lineup when this race is over and there most certainly will be drivers in that lineup that aren’t mentioned in the Playbook. That’s how it happens with these races so no driver is truly off the table and the only way you can build a terrible lineup is by playing six drivers starting in the top ten. But here are some of my favorite plays for Cash Games and some Tournament pivots.