NASCAR DFS Picks: South Point 400 Playbook, 10/20 - Las Vegas Motor Speedway

The circus that is NASCAR rolls into sin city for the South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. It’s the start of the Round of 8 for the playoffs as well with a win at Vegas giving drivers a huge advantage. That advantage could push championship contenders to take chances and push the envelope. How are we taking that into building NASCAR DFS lineups? Does that change our NASCAR picks for the South Point 400? How can we use race trends and strategy to build winning lineups for the South Point 400? All that below plus our top drivers for  Las Vegas!

Las Vegas Motor Speedway Trends

The chart below shows the averages over the last 5 races at Las Vegas. It’s fairly similar to a few other intermediate tracks on the schedule if we’re being honest. The main way Vegas is different than say Kansas, Michigan, Texas, and Charlotte is that track position is more important there than most. Laps led come at a nearly 70% clip from drivers starting in the top-10. That being said though, among the similar tracks, it has the most top-10 finishers on average from outside the top-12. Four of the last 5 races at Vegas have seen 5 or more drivers starting P13 to P37 finish in the top-10. That’s mainly due to the tire wear here and tire issues that bring cautions and chaos. While it might be true that moving up is possible, winning from the front is basically the only way to win. Over the last 10 races, 9 winners have started P9 or better and each of the last 5 have started P5 or better. In recent races here, a single driver has topped 100 laps led each time with a second driver topping 50 laps twice.

NASCAR DraftKings Scoring Trends

The following chart shows the average points scored by starting spot on DraftKings over the last 5 Vegas races. It’s designed to show the general strategy in play at the track and where we can find point scorers further back in the field.

NASCAR FanDuel Scoring Trends

The following chart shows the average points scored by starting spot on FanDuel over the last 5 Vegas races. It’s designed to show the general strategy in play at the track and where we can find point scorers further back in the field.

South Point 400 DFS - Practice & Qualifying Results

The following chart shows where each driver ranks based on short run and long run speeds at practice compared to their qualifying spots.

NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy: 2024 South Point 400

If we take a look at all of the data and trends above, we can settle on a winning strategy. The top priority in building lineups for Vegas is nailing the laps led dominator. With the likelihood that one driver will top 100 laps in front, that will be a key source of points for your builds. Nabbing a second laps led dominator would be very good too as a buffer. The next thing is trying to sort out starting spots and who can move up from their’s and who won’t. Long-run practice speed will matter quite a bit as tire management is the key to doing well at Vegas. Like most intermediates the rest of the strategy relies on getting the best PD plays into the build. As for focusing on playoff drivers or not, we have to give a bit of an edge to the playoff drivers. If they can get the win it gives them two weeks to prep the car for the championship race and that can make all the difference.

Top South Point 400 DFS Picks

Below are the top picks for the South Point 400 at Las Vegas both in the writeup and the player pool below that. We’re available in Discord for any questions you may have throughout the weekend.

NASCAR DFS Picks: Top-Tier Drivers

Tyler Reddick

Reddick starts on the front row and he had the best overall single-lap in practice and was second in 10-lap average. He starts on the front row and has a good shot to get out front, lead plenty of laps, and win the race. He doesn't have a single top five finish since his win at Michigan over the summer. However, he had the second-best car in this race in the Spring and the speed has been there on intermediates so he is a great, albeit popular, option as a dominator.

Kyle Larson

He is last week's winner and was an easy candidate heading into practice and qualifying to go out there and potentially dominate this race. Larson has been exceptional on all types of tracks this year, but especially the intermediates. He won this race in the spring and additionally won at Kansas and Indianapolis, although there was some controversy for win at Indy. At the end of the day, we know who the best driver in the field is. His car seemed to get better in the long run in practice so he's a candidate to go out and get his seventh win of the season.

Denny Hamlin

Hamlin is largely mentioned “by default” because of how his team has consistently brought speed on the intermediates. Hamlin's three wins this year have all come on shorter tracks, but in two of those tracks (Bristol and Dover) they did run the intermediate package. He wasn't anything special in practice, but I have some faith he can show up and deliver by Sunday. He won this race three years ago and the Toyotas have always been great at Kansas which is a sister track to Vegas.

Ryan Blaney

This is an easy one. Blaney was only able to run one lap in practice. He wrecked because of a leak in one of his tires and he didn't post a qualifying lap. He's an easy position differential play and a lock for cash game builds. Blaney can't get negative points in this race and even if he finishes 17th, he's still getting very close to 5X value without any laps led or fastest laps.

NASCAR DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Drivers

Martin Truex Jr.

We've written him off so many times and I cannot wait for him to retire. But in the words of Michael Scott “No doubt about it, I'm ready to be hurt again.” Truex qualified P12 but that's not indicative of where the car performed in practice and qualifying. Truex was basically top two in every speed metric in practice. And since NASCAR qualifies in two groups, MTJ failed to crack the top five in his group by laying down the sixth-fastest lap. So at his price tag he actually works very well as a secondary dominator, and one that offers a little position differential.

Kyle Busch

As Matt and I outlined on the NASCAR DFS Podcast, and almost anytime we preview Vegas, this is Kyle Busch's home track. And this one means a little more to him. I'm still of the mindset the organization has been significantly better post-Olympic break. And he also starts P20 and I think he can come away with a top 10 finish at the end of the day.

Ty Gibbs

You'll have to take some risks on this slate. There are plenty of obvious and trendy plays for this race, but Gibbs is a driver that likely comes with minimal exposure and some upside. A.J. Allmendinger started P9 in Saturday's Xfinity Series race and he dominated it at about 10-12% ownership. Fellow Monster Energy driver, Riley Herbst, got his first career win at Vegas a year ago in the Xfinity Series. What's stopping Gibbs from breaking the slate, fresh off the noise that he'll be a car owner in the Xfinity Series next year? Let's not forget Gibbs grabbed a top five finish in the Spring and he start in the exact same spot for this race.

Chris Buescher

Easy plug and play here, but he'll be very popular. Buescher is a driver that can start outside the top 20 and score a top 10 finish. For that reason, he's definitely going to carry more ownership than Gibbs. He's cheaper and has a safer floor. Buescher has finished 11th and 15th in the last two Fall races at Vegas so he has an easy path to pay off the price tag.

NASCAR DFS Picks: Value Drivers

Daniel Suarez

I'm not wildly optimistic about Suarez after he was bounced from the playoffs last week. But he starts P23 and has top 15 potential. I've seen some projection models giving him top 12 upside so he is a safe play. I don't love him for cash games, but I like him for GPP's as he tends to go under-owned most weeks. He's finished 16th or better in four straight races at Las Vegas.

Noah Gragson

It's his home track and he actually went above and beyond with a massive score in the spring race here after he started P30 and finished sixth. He doesn't offer as much PD this time around. However, the intermediates, and this package, have been his bread and butter this year. He finished 18th at Kansas a few weeks ago, and he was top 12 at higher speed ovals such as Michigan and Indianapolis. I'm not convinced he has another top 10 in him for this race, but top 15 is fairly realistic.

Ryan Preece

Let's go with another SHR driver, shall we? We have a lot of PD on his side here as he starts P32. In this race a year ago he also started P32 and finished 26th. In the spring he started P36 and finished 23rd. He hasn't finished top 20 since back in 2021 but to his credit, he's performed well in the playoffs and we aren't that far removed from his 16th place finish at Kansas. 

Daniel Hemric

This is your punt play of the week if you need the salary relief. Phil Bennetzen of RaceSheets pointed out that Daniel Hemric has finished 23rd or better in five of six intermediate races on comparable tracks this year and he's only failed to finish three races this year. He starts P33 and hasn't had as many issues as we may have originally thought and he even finished top 20 in this race in the spring. So if you are trying to squeeze in three dominator or just want to somehow fit Reddick, Larson, and Blaney into your lineups, Hemric is a driver that opens up salary.

NASCAR DFS Optimizer & Lineup Picks This Week

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