As the NFL regular season kicks off, so do the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs with the Quaker State 400. It’s the second trip to Atlanta Motor Speedway this year for the Cup series and this time a win locks a driver into the Round of 12 of the playoffs. Just like we like it: high speed and high stakes for the Quaker State 400. With Atlanta being a pseudo-plate track, what strategies are we using for NASCAR DFS on DraftKings and FanDuel? Are we only playing NASCAR playoff drivers in our lineups? And who are the top plays for the Quaker State 400? All of that plus this week’s DFS preview podcast below!

Quaker State 400 Race Trends

First things first, anything prior to 2022 at Atlanta doesn’t matter. Not one bit. It was a completely different track with a different style of racing. The current Atlanta is much closer to a plate race than a pure intermediate even though it’s still 1.5-mile track. The last 5 races here, all as a plate race, illustrate that. More than half of the top-10 finishers in that span have started outside the top-12 in the grid. There’s also 10.5 drivers a race moving up double-digit spots in PD and relatively few clear laps led dominators. That being said, there are still some elements of intermediate tracks here. For example, more than 2/3 of the laps led are from the top-10 starting spots, that’s not common at Daytona or Talladega for the most part. Another way it mimics Daytona and Talladega is in the number of cautions with nearly 10 a race since 2022.

NASCAR Playoffs and DFS

Unlike other sports, the NASCAR playoffs still have every driver running every race. They simply can’t advance if they win or improve their standing on the season. What does this mean for DFS? While there might be a pull to lean toward only playoff drivers, we can’t limit our driver pool like that. Last year in the playoffs, the first 4 races were won by non-playoff drivers. So if you only played playoff drivers, you’d have missed having a race winner and cost yourself points. If you’re torn between 2 drivers who are similar at a track, the playoff driver gets the edge for having a bit more motivation but that’s about the only difference we’re looking at for DFS.

DraftKings Scoring Trends At Atlanta

The following chart shows the scoring averages by starting spot over the last 5 Atlanta races. It’s designed to show the strategy for building lineups without regard to drivers or why they started where they did.

FanDuel Scoring Trends At Atlanta

The following chart shows the scoring averages by starting spot over the last 5 Atlanta races. It’s designed to show the strategy for building lineups without regard to drivers or why they started where they did.

Quaker State 400 DFS Strategy

So with a combo track like this, how are we building lineups for Atlanta? Generally speaking we can look at it like a plate track where laps led actually matter. The pole sitter has twice won and led the most laps both times, however the other three times they’ve fallen back without leading many laps. So just like other plate races, the pole-sitter is a risk to play. It was also the only spot in the top-10 in the grid to score well in DFS on average. With this being a plate race anything can happen and we’ve seen a variety of things happen in the last 5 races to bear that out. That being said, we’re still looking to build mainly throughout the field with a lean toward the back half in the hopes of big PD upside and avoiding the chaos.

Top Drivers To Play At Atlanta Motor Speedway

Top Tier Salary Drivers

Ryan Blaney

Blaney has unquestionably been the best plate racer in the field since the start of 2022. While he doesn’t have the most wins, he’s tops in average finish, running position, driver rating, top-5s, top-10s, and most runners-up (including here in February). He’s looking to make an early statement in the playoffs and get to the Round of 12 and this is perhaps his best shot for that.

William Byron

Byron has loved the redesign at Atlanta. It’s given him 2 wins in 5 races. However, the downside is that when he’s not winning he’s finished in the mid-teens. So it’s a bit of an all-or-nothing results list for Byron, but hey it’s a plate race so that’s to be expected in a way. That being said, he does have 4 top-5s and 7 top-10s in the last 16 plate races he’s run which are among the best totals in the field.

Mid-Tier Salary Drivers

Kyle Busch

It’s been a resurgent few month for Busch and the RCR team with a lot of speed and top-10 finishes in that span. Heck, he nearly won the last 2 races including a plate race. Busch is still fighting to keep his streak of getting a least one win in a season alive which is motivation enough. However, when we add in how well he’s run at plate races since moving to RCR, he gets a great boost. In those 10 plate races, he’s posted a win, 2 runners-up, and 6 top-10s. Pretty good for this price tag huh?

Ross Chastain

Much like his teammate, listed down below, the driver of the 1-car has enjoyed Atlanta after the redesign. In the 5 races here since 2022, Chastain has 2 P2s, a P7, and a P13 finish in 4 of the races. While he’s not in the playoffs and may be commissioned to push his teammate late in the race if it comes to it, that should still put him in contention for a strong finish if not a sneaky win. His aggressive driving style usually pays dividends in PD with an average of 11 PD spots a race this year, especially in this mid-tier salary.

Bubba Wallace

It’s no secret that Wallace has been one of the best plate racers in the field practically since being in the Cup series. That success has reached higher levels this year with 3 top-6 finishes in the 4 races at plate tracks this year. While he’s not in the playoffs and there may be pressure for him to push his teammate, we’re still looking at a fast 23XI Toyota with a good driver behind the wheel who should threaten for a top-5 finish.

Daniel Suarez

Suarez loves the new Atlanta. How much does he love it? How about a P4, P6, P2, and P1 finish in 4 of the 5 races here since the start of 2022. That’s easily the best record here in terms of consistency. Sure the rest of the plate history isn’t as beefy but that’s another week’s problem. We’ll take the price discount on Suarez and bank on him repeating yet another top-10 finish at Atlanta.

Austin Cindric

There’s no denying that Cindric has been a bit up-and-down at plate tracks in his Cup career since winning the Daytona 500. However, the redesign at Atlanta has been going in his favor the last 4 races here. Cindric has finished no worse than P12 in that span including a P3 and P4, that came this year. If that’s not enough, in the 16 plate races (since the start of 2022) he’s averaging the 5th-best driver rating and average finish and 3rd-most top-5s.

Alex Bowman

While Bowman may not stick out in the field at these tracks m the numbers suggest otherwise. Since 2022, he ranks 4th in average finish at plate races and this year among drivers with multiple plate races, he’s second only to Kyle Busch. At this price tag we don’t need sexy, we simply need solid and that’s what Bowman brings on a weekly basis. He’s supposedly on the hot seat at Hendrick and that may have him racing better if he’s truly on the hot seat.

Value Tier Salary Drivers

Todd Gilliland

Gilliland led the most laps in the February race with 58. We’re not just going off that one showing though. The 38-car with Gilliland piloting it has posted the 4th-best driver rating and 3rd-best average finish in the field across the 4 plate races this year. Once is a fluke, four times is a trend and we’re rolling with that trend this week.

Corey Lajoie

These are the types of races are ones that Lajoie circles on his schedule. It’s worked out for him too. While he’s yet to win one, since 2022 he’s finished in the top-5 a quarter of the time and the top-15 half the time. In fact when we translate that into DFS terms, he’s been the highest-scoring driver, on average, on both sites of anyone in this week’s field. Pretty impressive right? Also, remember Lajoie was blocked into the wall by eventual-winner Chase Elliott a few Atlanta races ago.

Harrison Burton

He won the Coke 400 a few weeks ago sure, but there’s more to it than that. Burton has also posted three-straight P11 or better finishes in these races. Looking for a job, in the playoffs, and looking to shock the NASCAR world, plus that consistency… it could be a recipe for a heck of a GPP play come Sunday.

Carson Hocevar

The last three plate races have been quite good for Hocevar. While he’s started either 35th or 37th in those races, he’s finished P19, P17, and P11 respectively. He gets a lot of, generally deserved, dislike for his driving style but at plate races, the aggressive style works to his advantage and has been bearing results.

Cody Ware

You know it’s a plate race weekend when Ware makes an appearance in the playbook right? His stats in these races though more than make the case for him to be here. In his last 10 such races, Ware has averaged a 19.9 finish while starting no better than P32 in any of them. That suggests he posts excellent PD and is skilled, or lucky, enough to miss at least some of the carnage.

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