NASCAR DFS Picks: Go Bowling At The Glen Playbook, 9/15 - Watkins Glen

The Go Bowling at The Glen at Watkins Glen is on Sunday. The fourth road course race of the year, and the second in the NASCAR Playoffs, it’s a chance for a bit of calm after the last 3 races. Road races in NASCAR are a bit different than any other race. Just how are they different and what trends are there? What is the Watkins Glen DFS strategy we’re using? What are the Go Bowling At The Glen practice and qualifying results? All of that plus the top Go Bowling At The Glen DFS picks in this week’s NASCAR cheat sheet.

Watkins Glen International Trends

The following trends are from the last 5 races at Watkins Glen. When we’re looking at them we have to keep in mind just how different road courses are for DFS. For example, we may see that not a single time has a driver led more than 100 laps and only thrice has a driver topped 50. That’s because the number of laps in road races are a lot smaller than anywhere else. On Sunday there’s just 90 scheduled laps. Much like short tracks, a vast majority of the laps led come from drivers starting toward the front of the field on average.

If we’re talking about winners and moving up, we’re looking at some hardened trends. In the last 6 straight races here, the winner has started in the top-5 and in the last 20 races here, just 6 winners have started outside the top-5 (three of those six outside the top-8). Over the last 5 races, just under 40% of top-10 finishers have started outside the top-12 and less than 4 drivers a race move up 10 or more spots.

Go Bowling at The Glen DFS - Practice & Qualifying Results

The following table shows the results from practice and qualifying on Saturday. It’s sorted by starting spot and shows single-lap, 5-lap, and 10-lap average speed ranks. It’s designed to show who may be able to move up or hold their spots come the race. That being said, keep in mind the trends above and the scoring trends below. Just because a driver was slow in practice doesn’t mean the track position trends won’t hold this time.

NASCAR DraftKings Scoring Trends

The chart below shows the average DraftKings points scored by starting spot over the last 5 races at Watkins Glen. It’s designed to show the strategy in play this weekend but it isn’t necessarily a hard and fast rule.

Based on the position trends mentioned above, it shouldn’t be shocking to see that the top-10 starting spots are typically among the best scoring ones. There are spots as far back as P25 who score above the average but once you get past P15, it’s certainly tougher to find them.

NASCAR FanDuel Scoring Trends

The chart below shows the average FanDuel points scored by starting spot over the last 5 races at Watkins Glen. It’s designed to show the strategy in play this weekend but it isn’t necessarily a hard and fast rule.

The laps completed points on FanDuel raise the average of the field as a whole, but it also keeps some other positions in play for DFS. There are more spots P15 and further back that score above the average on FD as compared to DK. We’re more so hunting finishing position on FD and a little less so in laps led thanks to the lack of points for them.

NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy: 2024 Go Bowling at The Glen

Given everything mentioned above, how are we looking to build lineups this weekend for Watkins Glen DFS? Well it’s clearly going to start up front with playing a couple of drivers starting in the top-10 of the field. The rest of the build we’re targeting finishing position plays which means mainly sticking in the top-20. However, that doesn’t give a ton of drivers to look at for a driver pool so we’ll need to get different. How do we get different this week? Targeting drivers with some upside starting outside the top-20. There are a few drivers who are starting that far back in the field who make sense for DFS based on road race history and/or practice speeds. Again, we really only want one of these guys in our builds thanks to the strong trends at Watkins Glen of track position being king.

The way the field set up in qualifying, it’s looking like we’ll have more of a co-laps-led dominator-type race rather than a single driver who dominates. With 90 scheduled laps, I could see two drivers topping 30-35 laps out front with the rest of the laps being split by 2 other drivers in either pit cycles or stage breaks. If you’re building several lineups you could build one with a single dominator on the chance that either front row starter runs away and hides like we’ve seen happen here sometimes.

We're looking mostly in the mid-tier of salaries this week as that's where most of the value lies based on how qualifying landed. There are a handful of drivers we're looking at in the top-tier and value tiers but the bulk of the builds will be about the mid-tier. 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Top-Tier Drivers

Kyle Larson

The last 5 road races for Larson haven’t been great to be frank. His lone top-10 finish in that span was the win at Sonoma earlier this year. That might be enough to put Larson top of mind for a lot of people, or it’s the fact that he’s starting P20 while running top-5 in practice. There’s no doubt that he’ll have a fast car on Sunday and should be able to pick up spots pretty quickly. However, if he drives a tad too hard, like he’s sometimes prone to doing, he may spin and cause himself some issues. Even though everything is set up for a good day for Larson, he’s still a GPP-only play given his sustained lack of quality finishes and an average 16.7 finish in the last 10 road races.

William Byron

Byron has been elite at road courses in the Next Gen Era. He’s posted 2 wins, 4 top-5s, and 5 top-10s in that span including a win at this race last year. Keep in mind that he accomplished those numbers while starting outside the top-5 6 times which indicates he knows how to move up when it’s tough to pass. We may get some leverage with Bryon with him tucked between Lasron starting further back and SVG starting closer to the front but there’s just as much upside here with Byron.

Shane Van Gisbergen

We all know SVG’s road course ability at this point, despite the issues in Chicago. Add to that his track time in the Xfinity race and that makes him all the more dangerous this week. Rolling off P3 will make him a popular play for people trying to get a 2nd laps led dominator in the build along with some win equity. If you’re playing SVG along with another driver in this range, you’ll need to go take a look at the value plays section too. Oh yeah, I almost forgot, his practice speed was top-5 across the board.

NASCAR DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Drivers

Tyler Reddick

Reddick was tremendously fast at practice before qualifying P15. Now, that likely takes him out of winning chances, though you never know, but it should give him a shot for a top-8 finish. That kind of PD upside and fast laps potential is nice at this price. However, expect him to be a popular play exactly because of those reasons not to mention his 6 straight P8 or better finishes at road courses.

Martin Truex Jr.

It’s a road course and it’s Martin Truex Jr. Is that enough said? I get it’s been a bit of a struggle at them in the last few such races, but this is his best shot to ensure his spot in the Round of 12 and not car about Bristol. He’ll have an easier path to accomplishing that goal with a P2 starting spot and a path to leading a chunk of laps too. The speed wasn’t great at practice but Truex is generally a guy who can turn it on in race at a road course and he has the track position to start which is the important part. Remember that he was P2 at Sonoma before running out of gas 100 yds from the finish line.

Chris Buescher

Quite simply he’s been one of the best road course driver in the last 2 years in Cup. He’s posted the best average finish (8.4) and tied for the most top-10s (8) in that span. That’s all come with an average starting spot of 18.7 in that span as well. That proves he’s more than capable of moving up well through the field, and this week the practice speeds suggest he’s capable of that too. Expect him to be the most popular PD play in the field given the history and the price.

Austin Cindric

Cindric grew up racing on road layouts and that’s shown well in the Cup series. While his specialty has so far been an ability to pass when passing is tough, he won’t need to do much of that Sunday with him starting P5. That being said, that starting spot though should keep him as a threat to win, if he can hold it, as we get later in the race. If he holds his spot, he hits value and if he can nab a couple of laps led and/or fastest laps while doing it, even better.

Alex Bowman

Bowman has been on fire at road courses with 4 top-8s in the last 6 races and 3-in-the-last-4. The car is fast once again and he’ll be starting P4 on Sunday. That should give him a shot at leading some laps and holding a top-6 spot for the finish. He can win these races as he proved with an excellent drive in Chicago and a win here would be big for his playoff picture.

Ross Chastain

The pole sitter at Watkins Glen has the best shot of leading the most laps, typically. It’s happened in half of the last 6 races here. Chastain had a fast car at practice before qualifying on the pole as well. That tends to mean good things on road courses. Sure, it’s not been the best discipline for him in the Cup series with just 2 top-5s in the last 10. However, starting up front should give him laps led and a top-5 finish which is more than good enough at this price.

Brad Keselowski

It’s been an up-and-down run at road courses for Keselowski for a little while now. However, he has 7 top-20s in the last 10 races still with 3 top-15s. Starting P28 with that history means there is PD upside here at a fairly cheap price, understandably so, that will fit nicely in just about any build. The other thing that’s intriguing is he was one of the only cars on track at practice to get faster the longer he was on the track, which is important with the tire fall-off expected this week.

NASCAR DFS Picks: Value Drivers

Todd Gilliland

What else is new? Gilliland fits in builds again even at road courses. It doesn’t hurt that he’s starting P37, nearly dead last, which gives nothing but PD upside. What else backs that up? His average finish of 19.8 in the last 10 road races and average start of 27.1. That includes 3 top-10s, including the last 2 races,  and 5 top-20s. Expect the 38-car team to use some creative pit strategy to get positions if the practice speed doesn’t improve.

Justin Haley

Haley has been a surprisingly solid road racer with 2 top-20s in the 3 such races this year. The practice speed wasn’t lights out but it was significantly better than his qualifying spot is. So if we need some cheap PD upside in the build, Haley can bring that as well as being relatively little played.

Zane Smith

Smith has 3 straight top-20 finishes on road courses to his credit. He’s also held his position well as one of those he started in the top-20. It’s mostly a mid-tier build this week but if you need to have another higher priced driver in the build, Smith will come in handy.

NASCAR DFS Optimizer & Lineup Picks This Week

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