NASCAR DFS Picks: Food City 500 Playbook, 4/13 – Bristol Motor Speedway
Published: Apr 13, 2025
The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Bristol Motor Speedway for another short track for the second time in three weeks! However, this track is a bit of a departure from Martinsville. Whereas the previous half-mile track is relatively flat, Bristol is known as the Last Great Coliseum with its higher speeds and banking compared to Martinsville.
The overall NASCAR DFS strategy is still similar to Martinsville, but we don’t view it as a comparable track. Moreover, we can’t even truly rely on too much track history at Bristol because of the tire compound being used for Sunday’s race. But we’ll do our best to navigate the practice and qualifying efforts in addition to identifying the top plays for our NASCAR DFS Food City 500 picks!
Bristol Motor Speedway: Food City 500
Bristol Motor Speedway is considered a bit of a “bull ring” racetrack. It’s made of concrete alongside the aforementioned high banking. With that being said, cautions can come frequently and you better hope you can dodge any cars that spin. As we saw in Saturday’s race, Sheldon Creed and Brennan Poole weren’t so fortunate.
This race will have 500 laps so those dominator points really come into play for this race. At the very most, we’ll have 350 dominator points available on DraftKings. Obviously with cautions we won’t get the full amount, but we can still expect over 300, which is massive for our NASCAR DFS lineups.
A big concern with a track like Bristol is going to be how fast drivers get lapped. Kyle Larson was having a field day with that on Saturday. But it’s always worth a reminder that losing laps will cap a driver’s upside. It’s so hard to build lineups where each driver finishes on the lead lap. It can be done, but even if a driver finishes one or two laps down by the end of the race, it’s still entirely possible that they moved up and helped your lineup with positive place differential.
Bristol Motor Speedway Trends
Attached are the race trends for the last five Bristol races. Now these numbers do not include any of the dirt races at Bristol. Moreover, one of the races (Race 5) was before the NextGen era.
I do think we can deduce the usual from this table though. Most of the win equity is likely coming from the first three rows. With Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin starting in the second row, it definitely feels like the winner comes from inside the top five.
In a 500-lap race we are trying to collect as many dominator points as we can. Seeing that over 80% of the laps led came from drivers inside the top 10, we can lean into this narrative when building our lineups. In the driver pool below, I touch on five drivers starting inside the top 10 with dominator potential. It’s Bristol, baby. We need drivers in our lineups that have a path to leading 100+ laps.
NASCAR DraftKings and FanDuel Scoring Trends
As we can see from the above table, the biggest scores likely come from the dominators starting in the top 10. That’s where we’ll get most of the win equity as well. Remember we have over 300 dominator points to target on DraftKings. Track position is so vital here. It’s nice to qualify well and have a nice starting spot, but you need to maintain it for 500 laps. A spin or a penalty on pit road can be fatal at a track like Bristol. Getting laps back can be difficult.
That’s why those starting spots deeper in the field aren’t always a slam dunk. As you can see, on DraftKings, there’s only one starting spot (P36) that is above the red “average” line. Now don’t take that as scripture. There are going to be some drivers starting outside the P20 that likely move into the top 15 and score above the average. But I’m just trying to emphasize that you can’t simply play a two-man combination of Larson/Hamlin/Bowman/Gibbs/Bell/Blaney and expect all your PD plays to come through. You need to take risks on some value options starting inside the top 20 and hope they maintain the lead lap while others can’t.
NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy: Food City 500
Once again, the two separate practice groups leave me with little confidence as of Saturday night. And when I consider the possibility that I can’t rely too much on a lot of Bristol data, then I’m even more baffled. During Saturday’s practice session, Larry McReynolds noted that teams felt the tire fall off was even worse than last year’s race. Yikes. We do not love to hear that. Do you remember how many drivers finished on the lead lap last year? FIVE! Do you remember how many drivers finished one lap down? SEVEN! 24 drivers finished multiple laps down. But it’s Bristol, so we’re used to weird notes like that.
But based on the practice-to-qualifying table up above, we have way too many drivers failing to log a longer run. Tires are going to play a massive role in Sunday’s race so perhaps we just try to target the drivers who can manage them better than others.
Food City 500 DFS Picks
Denny Hamlin – DraftKings: $11,100 | FanDuel: $14,000
We’re kicking off the Food City 500 NASCAR DFS picks with the two most obvious options to spend up for. And since there are two clear plays, I’m sure the NASCAR Gods will do what they can to ruin at least one of these plays.
Hamlin’s been fantastic at Bristol especially in the NextGen era. He started P2 and won this race in the 2023 playoffs with 142 laps led. More importantly, he won last Spring’s Bristol race where he started P3 and led 163 laps. The Spring race, as we’ve discussed, is the one that matters. That race saw the new tire compound introduced that was supposed to cause more tire fall off and Hamlin went on to win it.
Hamlin ran in the second practice group on Saturday and appears to have a top three car from that group based on the long run metrics. There are some guys that you give the benefit of the doubt to, and Hamlin is one of them. Even if we can’t trust too much track history for this particular race, we can trust Hamlin, who won last year’s race under a similar tire compound and the practice/qualifying efforts indicate the car is competitive. It’ll be fun to see if Hamlin can make it three straight wins on Sunday.
We also know that Hamlin has one of the best pit crews in NASCAR. It seems like every week they’re crushing their pit stops and helping their driver gain track position. At a track like Bristol, that can be viewed as a tiebreaker if you’re struggling between Hamlin and the next driver.
Kyle Larson – DraftKings: $10,500 | FanDuel: $14,000
Larson is the other obvious “chalktastic” play for our Food City 500 DFS picks. He attempted to race and win all three races this weekend, but that dream quickly died after he fell short in Friday’s Truck Series race, but he was hilariously dominant in Saturday’s Xfinity Series race lapping nearly 65% of the field in just the first stage. He would go on to lead 276 of the 300 laps on his way to the win.
Fortunately, it’s very easy to afford both Hamlin and Larson on both sites and plenty of lineups will go that route on DraftKings and FanDuel. What you do with the rest of your builds will be crucial.
If there’s one thing that gives us pause, the performance in this race a year ago was just okay. He started P10 and finished fifth with 19 laps led. But in the NextGen era at Bristol he hasn’t finished outside the top five, and he won this race in the playoffs last year with 462 laps led.
He was easily the fastest car in Group A’s practice session and we also know he can manage his tires better than most of the field.
Christopher Bell – DraftKings: $10,200 | FanDuel: $13,000
Kind of boring to go with another $10K option from the DraftKings player pool but Bell is one I have some confidence in. The practice speeds weren’t great, but he still went out and put up a good qualifying effort.
He comes into Bristol with back-to-back top three finishes and 57 fantasy points on DraftKings in both those races (Martinsville and Darlington). Bell had a modest showing in this race a year ago. He started P12 and grabbed a top 10 finish while leading 29 laps. In the other three NextGen era Bristol races he finished top five and in 2022 and 2023 he led a combined 330 laps.
He is a pretty decent pivot if you opt to not cram both Hamlin and Larson into your lineup but we can feel good about his ability to manage tires overall. I’m hoping the car performs better for Sunday’s race than what the practice speeds indicate, but we can play this Joe Gibbs Racing driver with some confidence.
Joey Logano – DraftKings: $9,300 | FanDuel: $8,500
Logano is a pricy option on DraftKings but a very affordable play on FanDuel at $8,500. He’s among the more popular plays on that site because FanDuel doesn’t reward for dominator points like DraftKings does.
Logano had arguably the best car in Group B’s practice session. However, he tagged the wall on his qualifying lap and thus starts P38. The good news is that the car was very fast in practice.
The bad news? He sucks at this track. Or at least he has in the NextGen era. He hasn’t finished in the top 20 at Bristol since 2021. It’s even been six years since he grabbed a top 10 finish here. Truthfully, you can gain some leverage and fade this play and hope he gets lapped early on and fails to make up the track position. In Cash games, he’s a fine play because of the potential floor due to the position differential. In tournaments, maybe keep exposure in check.
NASCAR DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Drivers
Ross Chastain – DraftKings: $8,600 | FanDuel: $8,000
It’s funny that Ross has put himself in a similar position to where he was a year ago. Last Spring he started P36 and grabbed a top 15 finish with seven fastest laps to return over 50 fantasy points on DraftKings.
The practice speeds on Saturday weren’t noteworthy. However, Ross managed his tires last week at Darlington to finish seventh after starting outside the top 20. And we’ve seen Ross gain double-digit spots in position differential in four of his last five races entering Bristol.
The starting spot does put him at risk of getting lapped if he isn’t proactively moving up in this race. But I am encouraged by what he did in this race a year ago and he also has two other top 10 finishes at Bristol in the NextGen era.
Ty Gibbs – DraftKings: $8,400 | FanDuel: $8,200
There are plenty of position differential options in the mid-range for this race. We just touched on one with Chastain. Bubba Wallace is certainly viable as well alongside Tyler Reddick. Those plays are safer, for sure. But if I want a potential GPP-winning play, then I’ll lean into Gibbs.
The recent form hasn’t been great, but in Group B’s practice session he flashed top seven speed and he starts P6. Sure, that puts him at risk of going backward but track position really matters at Bristol. For that reason, Gibbs is in play as a potential dominator.
In the 2023 Fall race at this track, he started P8 and grabbed a top five finish with over 100 laps led. In last Spring’s race with the comparable tire compound, he started P19 and grabbed a top 10 finish and again, he led over 100 laps. By no means is he a cash game play, but I don’t think he’ll carry significant ownership and he’s a great option with upside in tournaments despite the poor form in 2025.
Chris Buescher – DraftKings: $8,300 | FanDuel: $10,000
I’m really struggling with my read on Chris Buescher. I can’t take anything away from him because he is a previous winner at Bristol. He won here in the Fall of 2022 after starting P20 and leading 169 laps. But as always, I try to add the caveat that the 2022 season was a massive adjustment period for most teams because it was the first year of the NextGen car.
Typically, we see the winner of this race come from drivers starting inside the top 10. More specifically, we tend to see them come from the top six. Fortunately, Buescher offers position differential from P24 and in this race last Spring, he started P34 and finished seventh.
A massive concern is that RFK Racing, as a team, might have issues. None of their drivers logged a 20-lap run in practice. Brad Keselowski didn’t even register a 10-lap run. Hopefully they’ve figured out any potential issues ahead of time because we are playing Buescher with the hope that he’s as good as last year. But it’s unwise to assume he’s a safe option.
Alex Bowman – DraftKings: $8,000 | FanDuel: $7,800
Bowman showed great long run speed in practice and he backed it up by winning the pole during qualifying. He should be able to hold off Ricky Stenhouse Jr. when the race starts. However, the tough test will be regarding Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin who start in the second row.
Bowman’s been rather hit-or-miss at Bristol. Last year he was a hit in both races. In the Fall he won the pole and finished ninth but he did lead 34 laps. But last Spring, with the similar tire compound, he started P29 and finished fourth. It does feel like he either finishes in the top 10 with some dominator points or he busts and finishes outside the top 25. That makes him ideal for tournaments contests at least.
He’s coming in with poor form after disappointing results at Martinsville and Darlington. But he did contend for the win at Homestead a few weeks ago and we can’t write him off entirely. The starting spot is great and if he can lead the first stage (which is a big request), he’s likely optimal as long as he finishes in the top 10.
NASCAR DFS Picks: Value Drivers
Ryan Preece – DraftKings: $7,500 | FanDuel: $7,000
I know I just vented about how it’s difficult to trust the RFK cars in this race. Preece falls into that category. Track history has always been kind to Preece though. In the NextGen era, he’s never finished worse than 17th at Bristol and he finished seventh last Fall. That precious race from last Spring? Preece started P25 and finished 14th.
The fact we have so many drivers who didn’t log a long run is nauseating. And as we dig deeper and see that all three RFK cars didn’t get a longer run, well that’s even more unnerving.
But we also know that Preece rattled off three straight top 10 finishes prior to last week’s dud at Darlington. It’s just very hard to write off Preece when he starts this far back because he moved up so well at Vegas, Homestead, and Martinsville. And Bristol has always been a great track for him.
Austin Cindric – DraftKings: $7,300 | FanDuel: $6,800
I obviously have my concerns with this play, but there is upside. We didn’t see a lot of drivers get a long run in practice. Cindric did and the practice speed looked decent. Cindric, Logano, and Ryan Blaney all ran up to 25-lap runs in practice for Team Penske which is far more than we can say for RFK Racing. Cindric was top four in Group B in 10, 15, 20, and 25-lap metrics.
Cindric is a really nice blend of a driver who offers position differential from P21, but he also doesn’t start so deep that you worry about him getting lapped early on. Track history isn’t on his side but he finished 13th here last Fall in the playoffs.
Cindric also did well enough managing his tires at the high tire wear tracks the last few weeks. He grabbed a pair of top 20’s at Darlington and Homestead and he started in the top 10 for both those races. This isn’t a huge confidence play but I don’t anticipate a lot of exposure flocking to Cindric so I will buy into the speed he flashed in his group session and hope he does enough to just hold the lead lap early on.
Michael McDowell – DraftKings: $7,100 | FanDuel: $6,200
McDowell is one of those value plays that I’m actually comfortable playing despite the fact he doesn’t offer much position differential. If we get a long green flag run in stage one and the back of the field is getting lapped, well McDowell is in good shape because he starts the race from P13 so he has good track position.
McDowell has been very good at Bristol in the NextGen era. He’s finished 11th three times including this race a year ago. In the Fall of 2023, he managed to finish sixth. Those results all came with Front Row Motorsports.
Obviously, he’s now with Spire Motorsports and we assume that’s mostly a lateral move even if Carson Hocevar is struggling to finish well at the end of the day. Similar to Chris Buescher up above, we don’t quite know how good McDowell’s car will be in the long run. But the tires will play a big role in this race. He did report in practice that he was loose starting off, but he failed to register a 10-lap run. Unfortunately, we’re flying blind with this recommendation, but I do want to give him the benefit of the doubt because he managed his tires well here last year.
Noah Gragson – DraftKings: $6,900 | FanDuel: $6,500
I’m weary of this recommendation simply because I feel like I’ve mentioned quite a handful of drivers starting deep in the field for our NASCAR DFS Food City 500 picks. Gragson is no different as he’ll roll off P31.
Gragson’s practice speeds might be a bit misleading. He was in Group A which had the cooler conditions and in general, there weren’t many drivers that logged a long run like we’ll see in Sunday’s race.
At the end of the day, Gragson starts P31 and should be able to move into the top 20. Gragson is also rather reliable when it comes to managing tires. He started P26 last week at Darlington and finished 19th. He even finished 16th at Homestead but he started third for that race.
Bristol has been good for Gragson though. He won here twice in the Xfinity Series and he finished 12th here last fall with Stewart-Haas Racing. Sadly, he finished outside the top 30 in last Spring’s race.
Gragson likely loses the lead lap but we shouldn’t overlook how Front Row managed to nail the setup for Michael McDowell in previous races at Bristol and Gragson has enough PD potential at his disposal to pay off the price tag with a top 20 finish and some dominator points.
NASCAR DFS Optimizer & Lineups Picks This Week
Player Pool
| $ Tier | D |
|---|---|
| High |  Denny Hamlin  $14,000 |
| Kyle Larson $13,500 | |
| Christopher Bell $13,000 | |
| Chase Elliott $12,500 | |
| William Byron $11,500 | |
| Chase Briscoe $11,000 | |
| Medium | Joey Logano $8,500 |
| Chris Buescher $10,000 | |
| Bubba Wallace $9,000 | |
| Ross Chastain $8,000 | |
| Ty Gibbs $8,200 | |
| Alex Bowman $7,800 | |
| Tyler Reddick $7,500 | |
| Low | Ryan Preece $7,000 |
| Austin Cindric $6,800 | |
| Michael McDowell $6,200 | |
| Noah Gragson $6,500 | |
| Daniel Suárez $5,200 | |
| Todd Gilliland $5,000 | |
| Zane Smith $4,200 | |
| John H. Nemechek $4,000 |