NASCAR DFS Picks: EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix Playbook, 3/2 – Circuit of the Americas

Atlanta Motor Speedway didn’t quite deliver on the excitement of the 2024 spring race, but it’s awfully hard to top a three-wide photo finish. But Christopher Bell came through with a win last week coming from outside the top 30 to score his 10^th career win in the NASCAR Cup Series. It was another disappointing week for Austin Cindric who once again was consistently running up front but was wrecked with less than five laps to go.

This weekend we get our first road course of the 2025 season. There are plenty of road course specialists AKA “road ringers” in the field and making his NASCAR Cup Series debut will be Connor Zilisch at just 18 years of age. Let’s dig in and look at the top plays and strategies as part of this week’s NASCAR DFS Picks for the EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix!

Circuit of the Americas, better known as COTA, is probably the most technical road course we’ll see on this schedule. Shane van Gisbergen opened as a big favorite for this race at +500 at most books. Surprisingly, Connor Zilisch opened at +550 as the second-biggest favorite which is mind blowing considering the kid doesn’t have much experience in the NextGen car. But in his Xfinity Series debut in 2024, he won at Watkins Glen, so he has big expectations ahead of this weekend’s action.

COTA is a perfect blend of elevation changes, very tight corners, a long front stretch featuring a steep ascent into a tight first turn, and even some aggressive ‘S’ curves. The big story will be the new layout. The Grand Prix Circuit, which they ran from 2021-2024 measured in at 3.426 miles and had 20 turns. It featured a very long straight on the back half of the track that won’t be utilized this year. Now they’re introducing the new layout specifically for NASCAR. We have 18 turns measuring in at 2.356 miles.

The good news is that the new layout gives us 95 laps to work with, which doesn’t amount to much in terms of how we construct our DFS lineups, but it should make pit strategies a bit more interesting for this race with nearly 40% more dominator points compared to last year.

We should also be mindful that NASCAR is introducing a new road course tire combination this weekend. I shared a tweet in Discord earlier this week that the tire should provide more wear and tire fall off. We’ve seen NASCAR try and introduce something similar in the past only to have nothing come of it, but it’s something to keep it in mind for this race and it did seem to have an impact in practice.

Circuit of the Americas Trends

As is the case with a road course, COTA has seen some big movers over the last few years. Sure, we have a new layout for this race, but I think the typical road course trends prevail on Sunday.

I tend to throw the 2021 COTA race out for a couple reasons. It was called after 54 laps due to rain and NASCAR’s golden boy, Chase Elliott, just so happened to be the leader and ended up winning. In my own opinion, Kyle Busch was screwed out of a victory. So, if you were on the right pit cycle and had the track position at that time, congrats you scored a good finish. But that race did see 10 drivers gain 10+ spots of position differential.

2022 saw Ross Chastain score his first Cup Series win at COTA after starting P16 and leading 31 laps. That race saw 11 drivers gain 10+ spots of position differential and five drivers started outside the top 20 but finished 14^th or better.

Two years ago, we saw Tyler Reddick continue to cement himself as a road course guru in NASCAR as he scored the win from P2 and led 41 laps with a 141.8 driver rating. William Byron also led 28 laps from the pole, but only seven drivers gained 10+ spots of position differential.

Last year’s race was relatively clean because we only had two cautions for four laps. And those cautions just so happened to be the ones for stage breaks. Byron led 42 laps in a winning effort from the pole. The next closest dominator was Ross Chastain with 10 laps led. Only five drivers finished off the lead lap and because of the long green flag runs we didn’t see many big movers unless you nailed the correct pit strategy before the end of each stage. There were still some big movers though. Chris Buescher started P20 and finished eighth. Joey Logano started P35 and finished 11^th. Ryan Blaney started P28 and finished 12^th. Chase Briscoe started P35 and finished 13^th. Zane Smith started P34 and finished 20^th. But the other 15 top 20 finishers also started inside the top 20.

But there were some trends in practice and qualifying that we should monitor ahead of Sunday’s race. Multiple drivers were notified about cutting the corners in turns 5 and 6. Cutting them on Sunday will result in a costly penalty. Moreover, we saw multiple speeding penalties on pit road in Saturday’s race that we’re hoping don’t translate to Sunday’s race.

Saturday’s Xfinity Series race saw Connor Zilisch win from the pole with 26 laps led but he even had a penalty at the end of stage one when he entered pit road 0.9 seconds after a caution was thrown and he was forced to drop to the tail of the field. But he worked his way back to the front and won. On the new layout, we saw just six drivers gain 10+ spots of position differential and 11 drivers gained at least five spots of position differential. But let’s keep in mind, that’s the Xfinity Series where there is a much larger gap in terms of equipment between the good teams and the underfunded ones.

NASCAR DraftKings and FanDuel Scoring Trends

Last week’s article saw the return of previous race trends at Atlanta. I’m holding off on publishing them in this week’s NASCAR DFS Playbook for two reasons. A lot of the data is based on the old layout for COTA. The laps are now a mile shorter and the track is more technical. Hitting your marks becomes more important than ever. Additionally, we have a new tire combination for road courses this year. It’s a softer compound meant to wear more than previous road course tire combinations. In practice on Saturday, the Trackhouse cars saw about two seconds of falloff across a 10-lap run.

Because of that I’m trying to operate as if this race is a bit different from what we’ve seen the last couple years. There are more dominator points available this time around, but the road course lineup strategy largely remains the same as we target PD.

For FanDuel specifically, we should acknowledge the scoring for this race. The laps completed/led points will be rewarded slowly to our lineups. But on FanDuel specifically, we downgrade the laps led points more than on DraftKings because on DK we get more. On FanDuel, leading five laps equates to gaining one spot of position differential. This week, FanDuel will be all about getting five drivers into your lineup that move up, finish well, and you probably want the winner as well.

NASCAR DraftKings and FanDuel Contest Selection

It’s more of the same with contest selection on DraftKings and FanDuel. The big $15 Engineer contest on DraftKings pays $100,000 to the winner but just $1,500 to whoever comes in 10^th. I will be playing the $4, 20-max Chrome Horn contest which pays $20,000 to first on DraftKings but just $500 to 10^th. So we don’t have great payout structure for the premiere contests but that’s typically always been the case.

The single-entry and three-entry contests are where the balanced payout structures are at. Our resident MMA DFS expert, Mike Iannone, managed to take down the $88 three-entry max contest on DraftKings last week for a nice little $3,000 payday. But these contests, regardless of entry fee, offer the most balanced payout structures across the board on DraftKings for Sunday’s race.

I wish I could say FanDuel was worth playing but the contests of interest are few and far between. Their $9 Slingshot contest rewards $20,000 to the winner which is 25% of the prize pool. If you finish in the top five out of 10,000+ entries you’re only getting $1,000. That’s a nice payday but for a top five finish? You deserve better!

They do offer a $3, 20-entry max Bump N Run contest that pays $5,000 to the winner. Again, that’s 25% of the prize pool and finishing 10^th returns just $100. I have some loose change remaining in my FanDuel account so I will be making three lineups for that contest but I’m not holding my breath on a big win over there. They do have some reasonable single-entry contests at the end of the day so do some research and choose your contests carefully on FanDuel.

NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy: EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix

Before we dive into the driver pool for Sunday’s race, it’s worth mentioning we are departing from the superspeedway strategy with lineup construction. Sure, we want position differential but we aren’t stacking the back and leaving a ton of salary on the table. We welcome dominator points, but we should build lineups targeting win equity and take the dominator points if they come to us. Road courses come with fewer laps than other tracks.

By comparison, there are going to be short tracks this year with over 300 dominator points up for grabs. Even last week’s race at Atlanta had over 160 when you account for cautions. This race has just 95 laps. Without any cautions, the absolutely maximum number of dominator points available to us on DraftKings will be 66.5 points and we know that won’t be the case since we’ll have a caution at the end of the first two stages. So we’ll likely end up with around 60 dominator points. If a driver leads 30+ laps, which is certainly possible, those points are meaningless if they don’t finish well. 

Top EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix DFS Picks

William Byron – DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $13,500

Byron won this race a year ago from the pole with a 146.8 driver rating. Moreover, over the last two races at COTA he’s led a total of 70 laps. He also got extra laps in ahead of this race as he ran the Xfinity Series race on Saturday and he finished as the runner-up.

Byron also has a win at Watkins Glen from 2023 where he led 66 laps with a 149.3 driver rating. So while he isn’t regarded as the best road ringer in the field, we can at least play him knowing there’s some win juice.

When you consider the practice data from Saturday’s sessions, Byron didn’t log a 10-lap run. But he posted the second-fastest lap in the second session. I believe the car was set up more for race trim rather than qualifying trim as evidenced by the P15 starting spot. So he’ll be a popular PD play and likely returns 50+ fantasy points with a top five finish.

Shane Van Gisbergen – DraftKings: $9,800 | FanDuel: $14,000

SVG didn’t provide for the pole-winning qualifying effort, but he still rolls off P6 and had easily the best single lap in practice in addition to the best long run speed despite the entire field working with new tire compound. 

He opened as the favorite to win this race which surprises nobody. He won his Cup Series debut at Chicago in 2023 and comes from a Supercars background. The new layout probably makes the track harder for everyone else, but easier for him because he can hit all his marks.

Aside from win equity and background, I prefer him over Reddick because Reddick likely goes for stage points, which mean nothing for our DFS builds. SVG’s team likely understands that if they want to make the playoffs, they need to get a win and their best opportunity is going to be on a road course. So I’m guessing he’ll pit before the end of each stage to gain/maintain track position to start the next stage and if all goes accordingly, he probably wins.

Christopher Bell – DraftKings: $9,200 | FanDuel: $12,500

Bell was my pick to win the Daytona 500 and he wrecked late while running in the top five. He was a popular PD play last week at Atlanta and grabbed the win. This week he rolls off P19 with plenty of position differential on his side once again.

Bell has also been really strong at COTA in his career. He finished third here in 2022 and was the runner-up last year with nine laps led. Moreover, in 2023, he was leading in stage three but spun and ultimately finished outside the top 30. If he won that race, he would have an entirely different outlook heading into this race.

The starting spot likely makes it difficult to win on Sunday. But that’s fine, he can still crush it for our NASCAR DFS lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel with a good finish. There are some people that believe success on short, flat tracks correlates to road course racing. I think you can make that case regarding Martinsville and its tight turns but if you’re looking for another reason to increase your exposure to Bell then you should lean into that theory.

NASCAR DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Drivers

Connor Zilisch – DraftKings: $8,700 | FanDuel: $11,500

He might be the most talked about driver this weekend. He’s 18 years old and opened as the second-biggest favorite to win this race. He has a very strong road course background and won the pole for Saturday’s Xfinity Series race. Despite a penalty late in stage one, he was still able to work his way back through the field and get the win.

Am I a fan of betting him for this race? Obviously not. But he’s priced perfectly in the mid-range and starts P14 and he flashed top five short-and-long run speed in Group A’s practice sessions.

The Trackhouse cars are very fast for Sunday’s race and despite his lack of experience in the NextGen car he looked pretty comfortable during practice. He can return 40+ fantasy points on DraftKings if he finishes ninth or better.

Ty Gibbs – DraftKings: $8,400 | FanDuel: $10,000

There is a lot of chalk in the mid-range for Sunday’s race and I’ll also touch on those plays as well. But one driver who may go overlooked in this range is Ty Gibbs. For our lineups on DraftKings, we want to get six guys into our lineup(s) who can return 45+ fantasy points. Gibbs can do that if he finishes eighth with some dominator points.

Gibbs finished third in this race last year and was ninth in 2023. He is somewhat underrated as a road course driver as he also finished third at Chicago last year. In terms of high-upside leverage in the $8K range, Gibbs can maybe come in at 15% ownership and pop for 50+ fantasy points if things go his way.

Alex Bowman – DraftKings: $8,300 | FanDuel: $9,000

This is a phenomenal price tag for Bowman on both sites. Earlier this week in Discord, I posted his opening betting line at +2000 and it moved to +1400 by Friday. He’s finished fourth, third, and second in the last three races at COTA and he starts P21 for Sunday’s race.

Given the track history and starting spot, he’ll be popular. I’m more than happy to play him in cash games but mind you, the track history will inflate his ownership. He also had top five speed in practice but qualified poorly so this is a driver that likely collects ownership over 30% in tournaments, and that’s a conservative estimate.

Play at your own risk. There’s really nothing that tells me he’s a bad play. But all the signs point to him coming in as a popular play so I may be slightly underweight.

Chris Buescher – DraftKings: $8,100 | FanDuel: $8,500

Buescher rolls off P24 and I dropped some notes on his road course performances in Discord and went on SiriusXM on Friday to hype him up a little more. We basically nailed the analysis. He’s a bad qualifier on road courses but moves up.

In 10 of his last 12 road course races (excluding Chicago), Buescher has finished in the top 10 and once again, he qualified poorly. The RFK cars did not look great in practice. That’s fine considering we don’t trust Brad Keselowski or Ryan Preece on road courses. Buescher, on the other hand, is talented enough to move up on his own even with a bad setup.

Prior to the NextGen era, in 2021 he started P28 and finished 13^th here. The last two years he grabbed a pair of top eight finishes while starting P20 and P32 in each of those races. He won at Watkins Glen last year going head-to-head with SVG. I’m more than happy with going overweight on Buescher or perhaps just matching the field in terms of exposure.

Austin Cindric – DraftKings: $8,000 | FanDuel: $7,500

It’s been a tough start to the season for Cindric. He was in contention at both Daytona and Atlanta after qualifying P2 for both races. Alas, he wasn’t able to secure a win despite leading 106 laps between both drafting races.

Now we go to a road course and Cindric actually has a decent road course background, but Penske has struggled with road courses the last handful of years. In the four Cup Series races at COTA, Cindric has an average starting spot of 6.75 and an average finish of 14.25 so the previous qualifying efforts have largely taken him out of consideration for DFS.

But he also finished 8^th at COTA in 2022 and then 6^th in 2023. To add to that point, he starts P36 and offers a relatively safe floor. He’s likely returning value with a top 20 finish so lock him in for cash games and get some exposure in tournaments as well.

NASCAR DFS Picks: Value Drivers

Chase Briscoe – DraftKings: $7,400 | FanDuel: $8,000

Oh how I pray this is a leverage spot we can jump on with Briscoe. Briscoe is a sneaky road course driver. Honestly, he gives me “Chris Buescher on a road course” vibes, but we’ve seen more success from Buescher, obviously. I guess what I’m saying is, I think Briscoe could be the next unheralded road ringer that flies under the radar for too long.

Back in 2021, he started P27 and finished sixth at COTA. In 2022, he spun very late and ended up finishing 30^th. The last two years he grabbed back-to-back top 15 finishes. And last year he finished 13^th when Stewart-Haas Racing wasn’t really investing much in the cars since they knew they were closing up shop at the end of the 2024 season.

Now Briscoe goes to Joe Gibbs Racing, easily the best equipment he’s ever driven. He rolls off P18 for Sunday’s race and had the third-best five-lap and 10-lap speed in his group, putting him ahead of A.J. Allmendinger, Connor Zilisch, and Chris Buescher. I believe he can finish inside the top 10 and possibly get an even better result and he lines up as one of my favorite GPP plays.

Cole Custer – DraftKings: $6,500 | FanDuel: $6,000

I don’t have a ton of faith in this play as I buy into Briscoe’s upside much more. But Custer isn’t a bad road course driver by any means. He has a win from the Xfinity Series at Chicago but mind you that race was called due to significant rain and wasn’t even an “official” race.

But he also won at Portland in 2023 and finished sixth last year. He’s the lone Haas Factory Racing Team car in the Cup Series, but this team also has two Xfinity Series cars driven by Sam Mayer and Sheldon Creed. Both had good moments in Saturday’s race, but some penalties and spins derailed their afternoon.

He wasn’t anything special in practice, but I do believe he can log a top 20 finish and maybe there’s enough chaos to help him jump into the top 15 by race’s end.

Zane Smith – DraftKings: $6,400 | FanDuel: $5,500

Zane Smith isn’t really viable for cash games this week because of his starting spot. However, I do like the idea of playing him in tournaments because he probably won’t attract much ownership.

We know that he won here twice in the Craftsman Truck Series. But he also had some upside last year as he grabbed a top five finish with Spire Motorsports at Watkins Glen. He would even grab top 20 finishes at COTA, Sonoma, Chicago, and the Roval. The only downside is that he qualified P20 so we do really need him to break into the top 12 to really break the slate for us. But the kid has potential to be a sneaky play if there’s chaos and he can avoid it.

NASCAR DFS Optimizer & Lineups Picks This Week

Shane Van Gisbergen does not appear in the table below, but we're getting him added as soon as possible. He is absolutely in play for Sunday's race as indicated in the article.

Player Pool

• DraftKings
• FanDuel

$ Tier	D
High	William Byron $13,500
	Tyler Reddick $13,000
	Christopher Bell $12,500
	AJ Allmendinger $11,000
	Connor Zilisch $11,500
	Kyle Larson $12,000
Medium	Ty Gibbs $10,000
	Ross Chastain $9,500
	Alex Bowman $9,000
	Chris Buescher $8,500
	Chase Briscoe $8,000
Low	Daniel Suárez $7,800
	Austin Cindric $7,500
	Joey Logano $7,200
	Michael McDowell $7,000
	Cole Custer $6,000
	Zane Smith $5,500
	Noah Gragson $4,000
	Justin Haley $5,200
	Ryan Blaney $6,800