NASCAR DFS Picks: Cup Series Championship Playbook, 11/10 - Phoenix Speedway

We’ve made it to the finale of the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season. The Championship 4 has been set for Phoenix and all that’s left to do is see who wins the Cup Championship. Phoenix has been the home of the title race for 4 years now. What can we glean from those races? Is there a clear NASCAR DFS strategy for this finale? How many championship drivers can we fit into a single lineup for Sunday? Is it a stars and scrubs approach or does a balanced build work better? In this final NASCAR DFS playbook of 2024, we’ll answer all of those questions plus what track we can compare Phoenix Raceway to and who the top drivers to play are!

Let’s rev our engines for the final time as we take the final checkered flag of 2024. Please watch the podcast below for a special announcement a few minutes in.

Phoenix Speedway Trends

We’re wrapping up the season at a track that has some interesting and defined trends. The first things that stick out are the laps led coming from the top-10 a massive percentage of the time on average and that less than 4-in-10 top-10 finishers start from outside the top-12. So track position is key here for good finishes and leading laps. However, a bit counterintuitive to those trends is the fact that nearly 8 drivers a race post double-digit position differential numbers. So drivers will get a bunch of spots on restarts and then be able to hold them under green flag conditions. That’s basically what it’s telling us. We can also treat Phoenix like a short track in terms of lead lap finishers with less than 22 on average.

One interesting thing of note for Phoenix. This is the 5th time the Championship has been held at Phoenix and 3 of the past 4 winners have started on the pole.

NASCAR DraftKings Scoring Trends

The following chart shows the average scoring by starting spot over the last 5 races at Phoenix for DraftKings. It’s designed to show the strategy in play at the races here. While not hard and fast rules or expectations, it does a decent job of giving you a visual of how you should be building DFS lineups.

NASCAR FanDuel Scoring Trends

The following chart shows the average scoring by starting spot over the last 5 races at Phoenix for FanDuel. It’s designed to show the strategy in play at the races here. While not hard and fast rules or expectations, it does a decent job of giving you a visual of how you should be building DFS lineups.

Cup Series Championship DFS - Practice & Qualifying Results

The table below shows the drivers sorted by qualifying spot for Sunday compared to their practice speeds. Practice was run on Friday afternoon with qualifying coming Saturday early afternoon. So there were some differences in track conditions, however, the main thing to take from this table is the who may have the speed to move up or hold their spots come Sunday.

NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy: 2024 Cup Series Championship

So given everything we know about Phoenix race trends and DFS scoring trends, how are we building lineups? The first thing we need for sure is a laps led dominator, if not 2. Four of the last 5 races here, all Next Gen races, there has been at least 1 driver to lead 100+ laps in the race if not 2. Even though there’s just 312 laps in the race, there’s still plenty of chances for dominator points with how the laps led and fastest laps are spread out. The next thing we’re looking for is position differential which is tricky to find here but can be had. It’s pretty rare that drivers starting further back than P25 put up good DFS days. So when looking for PD stick to drivers starting P25 or better, unless in an extraordinary situation in qualifying. Ideally we want to fit 2 title contenders into one lineup together and while 3 would be great, there’s not really room in the budget to do it, except maybe on FanDuel given how cheap their cheap drivers are. Last year we saw a non-title driver win this race and that could happen again, though it will be tough given the speed much of the Championship 4 showed at practice on Friday. As for practice, the last few races at Phoenix, the driver who was fastest in most metrics in practice won the race on Sunday.

In terms of other tracks we can use as a reference for finishes, we can compare Phoenix to New Hampshire, Iowa, Richmond, Gateway, and Nashville.

Top Cup Series Championship DFS Picks

Below you will find the top picks for NASCAR DFS this weekend between the drivers who are written up and those in the driver pool. The ones with write-ups are the stronger plays but aren’t necessarily must plays. Take into account the strategy notes above and what is written about them before deciding in which format you want to play them.

NASCAR DFS Picks: Top-Tier Drivers

Ryan Blaney

Quite simply Blaney has been the best statistical driver at Phoenix in the Next Gen era. His average finish, number of top-5s, 10s, 15s, 20s, fastest laps, laps led, quality passes, run position, and driver rating are all the best in the field. While he’s not yet won a race in the Next Gen era here, he does have 3 runners-up finishes including last year when he won the title thanks to being the highest finishing Championship 4 driver. If you’re still not convinced, he did win Iowa earlier this year and has 4 top-6 finishes in the last 8 similar races to Phoenix. He’ll be a threat on Sunday but will also likely be the most popular of the Championship 4 drivers.

William Byron

Byron survived Martinsville and made the Championship 4. Now he’s letting his speed speak for him as he’s shown top-5 speed in practice. Starting inside the top-10 should give him a great shot to be a threat throughout the day too. It’s not just his speed this weekend though. Byron has a win here (Spring 2023) as well as 2 other P6 or better finishes in the Next Gen car. If he simply keeps his car clean and brings the speed from practice he should be a threat to either win the race or the title with a top-3 finish.

Joey Logano

Logano shows up when it matter most and that’s the same this weekend. He’ll be rolling off P2 for a shot at a 3rd title. The last 2 times he’s won the title Logano won the Vegas race to make the Championship 4 which is precisely what he did a few weeks ago. That being said though, he’s been a bit off at Phoenix in the last 3 races here even though Logano has been solid at similar tracks throughout this year. The scoring trends suggest he’s in for a good race as does the speed, but there is some risk with him based on recency at Phoenix.

Tyler Reddick

Reddick is by most estimates the 4th favorite to win the title. Whether it be because of his perceived lack of success at Phoenix or simply the speed the team hasn’t had down the stretch. Whatever it be, Reddick does have 3 top-10s in the Next Gen races here including two P3s. The 45-car team also brought the speed this weekend too. He had a top-10 car across multiple metrics at practice. He is perhaps the championship driver with the most questions but also the lowest rostership heading into Sunday.

Christopher Bell

You can make an argument that Bell should be in the Championship 4. But thanks to and issue at Homestead, he’s not. That won’t stop him from trying to show that he’s the best car not in the title hunt on Sunday. The track history for Bell is good including a win here this Spring and 2 other top-10s in the Next Gen car. We know how good he can be at New Hampshire and other flatter tracks as well. The speed is hanging around the top-10 from practice and the starting spot should keep him a threat throughout the race. There is sneaky dominator upside here too.

NASCAR DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Drivers

Ross Chastain

Chastain is gunning for another win here as a non-title contender. He’ll have his work cut out for him though even with starting P3. The speed at practice was questionable but the track history can’t be doubted. Chastain has the second-best record here across the board behind only Ryan Blaney. If the practice speed was a mirage and the qualifying spot holds, there is some sneaky dominance upside from Chastain on Sunday.

Martin Truex Jr.

He did it again. A week after landing on the pole at Martinsville, he’s on the pole again for Phoenix. Will this weekend be better than last weekend on the pole? It’s likely if he can get the jump at the drop of the green flag given his practice speeds on Friday. The 19-team would love nothing more than to send Truex off with another win in his hall of fame career. He ran well here in the Spring with a P7 and in this race last year he started P2, led some laps, got a chunk of fastest laps, and finished P6.

Chase Briscoe

Would it surprise you to know that Briscoe has the third-best average finish here in the Next Gen era? A 9.0 mark in those 5 races including a win. Will he win this weekend? Unlikely, however there is solid top-10 speed here once more as he’ll look to go out on a good note at SHR. Briscoe hasn’t just put up average finishes, he’s also registered chunks of fastest laps and laps led and great average running position in the Next Gen era too.

Chris Buescher

Buescher is a driver who we’re looking at the track history more than his ho hum speed at practice. On average in the Next Gen era, Buescher has started 17.8 but nabbed a 10.6 average finish. He ran really well here in the Spring with a P2 finish and P5 in this race a year ago. Buescher has proven to be good at this style of track over the last 2 years as well with 6 top-10s in 8 races dating back to his win at Richmond last year.

Josh Berry

I know I said above that we don’t play drivers starting this far back unless there are extenuating circumstances. These are those circumstances. He got very loose in Turn 1 of the qualifying lap and it killed his time and any hope of doing anything on a hot lap. Berry had solid speed at practice on Friday and has a solid track history including starting P36 here in the Spring and finishing P26. If he can do a few spots better this time, there’s value here for Berry.

NASCAR DFS Picks: Value Drivers

Ryan Preece

Preece has 2 top-15s in his 3 Cup races at Phoenix though this Spring was a tad disappointing. He’s got burgeoning top-20 speed this weekend despite not qualifying well. That will put a damper on his upside given the trends at this track. If we’re interested in a cheap PD upside guy, Preece can be that but if he doesn’t move up quickly, he could get stuck back in the pack and limit his upside.

Carson Hocevar

Much like Smith below him, Hocevar has been great at holding his spot in the second half the season. Tracks like this one have shown that well with 5-straight P17 or better finishes including 2 P8s. The speed is there for him to sneak into the top-12 while starting P15 in a spot not a lot of folks will look for him.

Zane Smith

The more Smith has run in the Cup series, the better and more consistent he’s gotten. While the 2 runs at Phoenix haven’t been the best, when we look at his last 9 similar races Smith has an average PD of 6 and finish of 24.1. He’s also nabbed a top-20 a third of the time in that span. This weekend he appears to have solid speed in the car once more and when he’s had that he’s been able to hold the spot pretty well come race day.

Harrison Burton

Burton wan’t on the radar this week until he showed up with great speed at practice, for him. He’s been capable of nabbing top-20s both at Phoenix and similar tracks when he’s had the speed. If you need to fit another top-tier driver in the lineup you’ll need savings and grabbing a guy who can get a top-15 this cheap is nice.

NASCAR DFS Optimizer & Lineup Picks This Week

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