NASCAR DFS Picks: Cook Out Southern 500 Playbook, 9/1 - Darlington Raceway

The Cook Out Southern 500 is this weekend at Darlington Raceway and it’s setting up to be another barnburner. Not only is it hot in South Carolina this weekend, the racing action will be too. Especially with this being the last chance to qualify for the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs. Drivers like Bubba Wallace, Chris Buescher, Ross Chastain, and Kyle Busch are all near the cutline for the field of 16. What does being on the cutline mean for the racing? How are we building NASCAR DFS lineups for DraftKings and Fanduel? Who are the top plays for the Cook Out Southern 500? All that plus practice and qualifying results in this week’s NASCAR DFS Cook Out Southern 500 Playbook.

Darlington Raceway Trends

Like many intermediate tracks on the NASCAR schedule, Darlington keeps with a certain set of trends. The first thing that sticks out about the table below is that nearly-90% of laps led in the last 5 races have been from drivers starting in the top-10. That is one of the highest marks of the year. The second thing that sticks out is that every race in that span has had a driver lead at least 100 laps and only 2 on average lead 50 or more a race. We know that passing for the lead can be tough but it’s especially tough here, at least under green conditions. Another trend we’ve become used to seeing at intermediate tracks is the amount of movement throughout the field and Darlington shares that trend as well. In the sample size we’ve seen more than half of the top-10 finishers come from outside the top-12 starting spots and 7.5 drivers a race nabbing double-digit PD. So in essence, starting up front is king but passing is possible. One last trend that doesn’t show here is that in the last 10 Darlington race there have been an average of 8.1 cautions a race, whether it be stage or incident yellows. Tires going down, getting into the wall, getting loose, are all threats here multiple times a race.

Southern 500 Practice & Qualifying Results

The following table shows where each driver qualified for the Southern 500 as well as where they ran in practice. It shows single-lap, 5-lap, 10-lap, and more lap averages to show who may move up and who may have overqualified.

DraftKings Scoring Trends at Darlington

The following chart shows the average points scored by starting spot in the last 5 Darlington races. It’s regardless of the driver in that spot nor the car, team, or manufacturer and is designed to highlight the strategy at play when building lineups on DraftKings.

Fanduel Scoring Trends at Darlington

The following chart shows the average points scored by starting spot in the last 5 Darlington races. It’s regardless of the driver in that spot nor the car, team, or manufacturer and is designed to highlight the strategy at play when building lineups on Fanduel.

Cook Out Southern 500 DFS Strategy

So when we take all of that into account, how are we building lineups for DraftKings and Fanduel contests for Sunday’s Southern 500? Like with any intermediate track, the first focus is to have 2 laps led dominators in our builds, regardless of site. Yes, even though it’s not a huge point total on Fanduel, the 36.7 max points can be a huge differentiator in the standings. If we’re targeting laps led that means we’re leaning on top-10 starters for those points given the trends, which also helps since on both sites 4 of the top-10 scoring spots are between P1 and P10 in the grid. The rest of the lineup is being filled with the best PD plays we can find throughout the field. With 7.5 drivers on average moving up 10 or more spots, that gives us plenty of plays to look at. Spots P16-P36 hold 7 of the top-15 scoring starting spots simply because of PD upside. One thing to be aware of is that roughly half the field finishes on the lead lap here each race which means lapping or being trapped a lap down can negatively affect the PD upside for some drivers. Long run speed at practice will be important here as it shows an ability to manage tire fall-off, which is the key to winning at Darlington. Similar tracks we can look at for Darlington include Vegas, Homestead, Dover (a bit), and the Coke 600 simply because of the transition from day to night during the race.

Top Driver Plays

Top Tier Salary Plays

Tyler Reddick

Reddick is racing for his first regular season title on Sunday, with his boss on his car to boot. Reddick was dominant here in May with 174 laps led from the pole before a tussle with Buescher late caused him to fade. In the similar races in the Next Gen car, Reddick has the second-best average finish in the field and had he not ruined his day in May, it’d be even better with 5-straight P8 finishes or better. Expect Reddick to try and replicate his May run, aside from the wreck, and be a factor for laps led dominator and/or the win.

William Byron

There’s not been a better driver in the last 11 similar races than Byron in terms of average finish, top-10s, average run position, driver rating, DK points, and FD points. Need we say anything more? Oh yeah, and the only reason he doesn’t have another win is because of the bump-n’-run Logano did to him 2 years ago here. He’s starting P8 and run some of the fastest laps in practice giving him some PD and some laps led upside and a likely top-5 finish.

Mid-Tier Salary Plays

Chase Elliott

It’s not been the dominant season we’ve come to expect from Elliott but it has been consistent. That matches his record at Darlington. He’s not been elite here but he has a history of finishing better than where he starts. Elliott has finished P12 or better (including 3 P8 or better finishes) 4 times in 5 Next Gen races here. In 3 of those he started P21 or worse. Hmmm… he’s starting P20 on Sunday with solid practice speeds. Elliott is in play for the regular season championship which is a big boost heading into the playoffs and a great run on Sunday could secure that. Elliott’s price tag is fair but perhaps the lack of dominance will keep some people off of him in builds.

Ryan Blaney

If there was a no doubt best race pace car in practice it was Blaney. It was pretty clear that the longer the car stayed on the track the better it got. Blaney has been fast in similar races to Darlington in the past but doesn’t have the finishes he should. A perfect example of that is in the last several similar races to Darlington, Blaney ranks 6th in average running position but 9th in average finish. Prior to ending his day early in the Spring race at Darlington, he’d reeled off 5-straight P9 or better finishes. He should be a factor for a laps led dominator on Sunday and may just walk away with the win if things go his way.

Ty Gibbs

Can Gibbs follow Burton and get his first Cup win and lock his way into the playoffs? Based on his 3-straight top-10s at similar races, including a strong race here in the Spring it’s possible. The car will need to find a bit more race pace on Sunday but the JGR team has shown to be more than capable of doing that in the past. At the very least he needs a solid run to solidify his spot in the playoffs and he’s quite capable of that, meaning a top-10 run and at this price there is value in that.

Ross Chastain

We didn’t expect Chastain to be in this position when the season started but here we are. He’s on the outside of the playoff picture needing a win to get in. The good news for him is that in the last 11 similar races to Darlington Chastain has posted 5 top-5s. In fact, over the last 5 such races he has 3 P5 or better and a P11, Darlington in Spring. Starting P22 leaves him with work to do on Sunday night to wind up in Victory Lane — the last time a driver outside the top-20 won here was Regan Smith in 2011 from P23. That being said, if he can find longer run speed in the cooler temps, he’s got the skill to be able to make a run for the win and get us quite a few DFS points.

Bubba Wallace

Wallace needs a win here to make the playoffs, or a terrible day for Chris Buescher and no new winner, and he started it well. Wallace has a fast car as evidenced by starting on the pole and putting up quality practice speeds prior to that. The history at Darlington has gotten better in the Next Gen era with 4-straight P9 or better finishes. In the similar races to Darlington, Wallace has 6 top-10s in 10 races. He should lead a chunk of laps and hold on potentially for a win or at least a top-five finish.

Alex Bowman

Bowman has been a bit hit-and-miss here but right now he’s running hot so we’re rolling with him. In the Spring race at Darlington, Bowman started P18 and finished P8 and in the first Next Gen Southern 500 he nabbed a top-10 as well. Bowman’s car was fast all over the track in practice before qualifying P27. He may not get a lot of looks in builds this week because of the up-and-down season he’s had and being a little overlooked which gives us leverage.

Erik Jones

It’s now or never for the 2-time Darlington winner to clinch a spot in the playoffs. He’s been circling this race for a while and even rushed back from a back injury to race here earlier this year. Jones loves this track and the performances show that. Now that LMC is a Toyota team he’s got an even better shot of running well here given their proclivity for running well at intermediate tracks. The PD potential here is large with him starting P28 and having run solidly at practice.

Noah Gragson

I’m not sure Gragson is getting enough attention this weekend. He’s been a monster here in Xfinity with 2 wins and no finish worse than P4 in 4 races. Gragson also ran well here in the Spring Cup race here this year moving up 22 spots to P14. The longer the 10-car was on the track in practice the better it got too. With that and this track fitting his driving style, don’t be shocked if Gragson finishes in the top-10 on Sunday night.

Low Tier Salary Plays

Todd Gilliland

We’re back on the Gilliland train this weekend. He appears to have another fast car, especially on the longer runs. Gilliland also has a good history here with 4 top-15 finishes in 5 races between Truck and Cup. Starting P33 with the potential of a top-15 car is huge upside here from the Toddfather but what else do we expect from a driver who’s posted 7 40+ point days in 12 races since the All-Star Race.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

The free square of the week is what Stenhouse is. He wrecked the car in practice, after running some fast laps, and missed qualifying. In the Spring race here this year the driver who started P36 finished P14 so moving up is possible. If he keeps it clean and uses pit strategy well, Stenhouse should be in for a nice PD upside day and might be one of the more popular plays across the slate. He’s also posted 9 P25 or better finishes in the last 11 similar races.

Carson Hocevar

This is a risk no doubt. It’s easily the highest he’s started in a Cup race in his young career. However, Hocevar has a strong history at the track in the lower series with 4 P6 or better finishes in 5 total races between Trucks and Xfinity. The car was quick at practice as well and he’s been consistently getting faster nearly every week it seems. If he can lead some laps and hold on to a P12 or better finish there is value here.

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