NASCAR DFS Picks: Cook Out 400 Playbook, 3/30 – Martinsville Speedway

NASCAR is heading back to the short track of Martinsville Speedway! It’s the second time we’re going short track racin’ in 2025, but unlike the race in Phoenix, Sunday’s race will not have the option tire. But we’re coming off a solid race overall at Homestead where Kyle Larson got the win despite not really dominating like we all expected.

It was a rough week for Ryan Blaney. He had an absolute rocket of a car and dominated plenty of the race until his engine blew up. Can he bounce back at Martinsville? It’s certainly possible given his success here in the past. But the qualifying effort left a lot to be desired, so he’ll have to work his way through the field. Let’s take a look at our top NASCAR DFS Cook Out 400 picks for Sunday’s race!

Martinsville Speedway hits the NASCAR schedule for two races every year. The spring race has dialed back the number of laps in recent years to 400, but the fall race still maintains the 500-lap status. Regardless of the lap total, there are still plenty of dominator points to go around. 

This track is just over a half-mile in length and it’s certainly one of the flattest tracks on the schedule with very tight turns. Laps tick off very fast here. Not as fast as Bristol, but they’ll complete about 2.5 laps per minute.

If doing your own research for this race, you can also look at comparable tracks such as Richmond, New Hampshire, Phoenix (sort of), and Iowa although there’s some decent banking at Iowa. For the most part, I prefer looking at the first three tracks listed. But the race at Phoenix three weeks ago doesn’t weigh as heavy as others because of the tire options available for that race.

Martinsville Speedway Trends

Overall, you’ll see from the race trends above that we see about 10 drivers on average gain at least six spots of position differential. And it’s entirely possible we see at least five drivers gain at least 10 spots while a handful of drivers should chip away at the laps led.

It’s always worth mentioning for a race like this that drivers starting deeper in the field aren’t locks to move up by any means. The leaders with clean air can get around the track quickly and start lapping cars with ease. Martinsville is a short track with slower speeds but it’s unforgiving. A spin, blown tire, or an error/penalty on pit road will cost a driver plenty of track position and likely multiple laps. The margin for error is incredibly thin, which is why it’s probable nearly half the field finishes off the lead lap. We need to be perfect with our NASCAR DFS lineup construction for Martinsville.

I do want to acknowledge that I find it incredibly interesting that the last five winners at Martinsville have all started between P11-P20. Moreover, just over 50% of the laps in that sample size have come from drivers starting in the top 10. If I’m being honest, I hope other NASCAR DFS players catch that trend and lean into it because I’m not seeing a ton of win equity for Sunday’s race starting P11-P20. Moreover, I think a heavy majority of the laps led come from within the top 10 starters.

Now to be fair, I have no idea how teams will go about their strategy during the race. Some drivers will try to get off-cycle with their pit strategy to gain track position after either the first or second stage break. So while I have my own convictions, I can’t predict the future. But that won’t stop me from trying!

NASCAR DraftKings and FanDuel Scoring Trends

It should surprise no one that the first two rows are the top scorers on DraftKings just based on the early availability for dominator points. Clean air and track position certainly go a long way and we will likely see one or two drivers starting in the first two rows collect plenty of laps led.

P11 sticks out like a sore thumb. In the fall of 2023, Ryan Blaney won the race from P11 and led 145 laps for nearly 130 points on DraftKings. In the fall race in 2022, Denny Hamlin started P11 and led over 200 laps while finishing sixth and he returned over 130 fantasy points. Last year, the P11 starting spot returned 26.5 and 24.7 fantasy points respectively. Funny enough, both Josh Berry and Kyle Busch started P11 and both finished 16^th in their respective Martinsville races last year. I believe context is key, so that’s why P11 jumps off the page up above.

NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy: Cook Out 400

We only have a 200-mile race but this one is 400 laps. Yes, a Martinsville race without 500 laps seems odd but it was the same way last year. But we still have 280 dominator points to target and we want as many as we can get. It’s very likely we see at least three drivers lead 50+ laps and only half the field may finish on the lead lap. The margin for error when it comes to NASCAR DFS contests for Martinsville is narrow. You could have three drivers in the top five with 50+ laps led each, and you could have two other PD plays running in the top 12. But if you have one driver that is off the lead lap you may not be taking down a big win.

Cook Out 400 DFS Picks

Ryan Blaney – DraftKings: $11,200 | FanDuel: $14,000

We have a 400-lap race on Sunday and DraftKings only has five drivers priced over $10,000. With so many dominator points to go around, it does feel like they would have gone a more aggressive route with pricing.

We kick off our Cook Out 400 DFS picks with Ryan Blaney. He’s had a rough go of it lately as he’s failed to finish the last two races. And that’s wildly unfortunate because I was very heavy on him for last week’s race. Alas, he still had enough dominator points where I was able to min cash several lineups with him and soften the blow a little bit.

We now head to Martinsville where Blaney has the best average finish in the field in the NextGen era. He’s won the last two fall races at Martinsville and he’s led 145+ laps here on three occasions throughout his career. Over his last six races here he has an average finish of 3.5 and he hasn’t finished outside the top eight.

He’s left an awfully bad taste in the mouths of DFS players the last three weeks. Eventually, the ship has to correct its course. He starts very deep in the field following a bad qualifying effort. So I do expect exposure to be high simply because of where he starts and he’s a clear contender to lead laps later on.

Denny Hamlin – DraftKings: $10,700 | FanDuel: $12,500

It’s not sexy by any means but Denny Hamlin is clearly good at Martinsville. It’s considered one of his home tracks since he’s originally from VA, but most fans dislike the guy.

Most of his dominance at Martinsville came over a decade ago. He’s won here five times, but the last time came in 2015. However, we did just mention we want drivers that can lead 50+ laps. Hamlin’s one of the rare drivers that can go out and lead 100-200. Sure, a year ago he led 66. But in the last two fall races at this track, he’s led 150+ in both races.

Even if we expand the sample size to before the NextGen era, he’s led 100+ laps here on seven additional occasions. Similarly, he’s also been very dominant at Richmond. That’s not a direct comparison by any means but it’s still short and flat, with higher tire wear.

Hamlin did finish second at Phoenix three weeks ago but take that with a grain of salt since that race had the option tire compound. He had solid speed in practice and qualified P5.

One thing to be mindful of regarding Hamlin is the weather. At New Hampshire last year, there was a good amount of precipitation and his car was terrible on the wet tires. So if there’s rain on Sunday in Martinsville, we should at least consider dialing back our exposure.

William Byron – DraftKings: $10,400 | FanDuel: $13,000

Byron was okay in practice but we’re mostly leaning into him being a strong driver for Hendrick Motorsports and showing up well on race day. The shorter run speed in practice indicates he has a top eight car and is probably top 10 in the longer run. So we have a little position differential to work with.

We also have win juice with this play. In the NextGen era, Byron has won two of the three spring races at Martinsville. A year ago he led 88 laps in his winning effort. Even last fall when he started P3 and finished sixth, he still led over 50 laps. No need to overthink it or provide too much unnecessary analysis. This is a solid play all in all.

Christopher Bell – DraftKings: $10,200 | FanDuel: $11,000

It’s very rare that we have all three races in action in a weekend where the front rows are eerily similar in terms of quality of play and dominator potential. Friday’s truck race had Corey Heim and Ty Majeski on the front row. Both were close in pricing. Saturday’s Xfinity Series race had Connor Zilisch and Carson Kvapil on the front row, and they were close in pricing.

Now we dig in for the Cup Series race and both Bell and Chase Elliott are on the front row and have similar pricing. So once again, I’m fine with both plays but will highlight Bell. Bell’s long run speeds in practice are obviously very concerning. But at the end of the day, he is a Joe Gibbs Racing driver starting on the pole. He has an easy path to dominator points early on.

Bell also won here in the fall of 2022 with 150 laps led and we know he’s notoriously good at New Hampshire which is a one-mile flat track. Last year’s New Hampshire race should weigh heavily in our minds because the field had to go to rain tires and Bell’s car looked great in the wet conditions. He led 149 laps and won.

So while I’m not playing Bell and Elliott together, I do like the upside of playing both separately and getting exposure to the early laps led. Elliott is a great pivot for leverage, however.

NASCAR DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Drivers

Chase Briscoe – DraftKings: $9,300 | FanDuel: $10,500

Briscoe is the eight-most expensive driver on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The pricing on DK is that of a fringe top-tier driver, while the FanDuel price tag isn’t too awful. In six NextGen era races at Martinsville, Briscoe has an average finish of 8.7 which is fifth among active drivers.

Briscoe is a very good short track racer. His first career win came at Phoenix back in the spring of 2022. In his last five races with Stewart-Haas Racing he qualified P5 or better in all of them. And now he’s in the 19-car for Joe Gibbs Racing, and Martin Truex Jr. qualified this car on the pole in two of the last three races at Martinsville. So by all accounts, the driver and car should be a match made in heaven for this track.

Briscoe’s tenure with JGR did not get off to the greatest start. However, the team had speed and momentum last week at Homestead and they finished fourth. I’m developing some optimism that Briscoe can go out there and finally get some dominator points at a track he’s been successful at, with a team that thrives on short, flat tracks.

The practice speeds weren’t very good, but he was able to lay down a strong qualifying lap. Plus he starts in that sexy P11 spot that scored well on DraftKings prior to 2024.

Austin Cindric – DraftKings: $8,500 | FanDuel: $7,200

I strongly dislike the price tag on DraftKings, but there’s obvious appeal here for tournaments. In three of the six NextGen races at Martinsville, Cindric has finished 11^th or better. He even finished fourth last fall. But in the other three races at this track, he finished 23^rd or worse. Per usual, Austin Cindric is a tournament-only option.

The practice speed wasn’t very good, but that’s normal for Cindric. I still think he has a 50% chance to finish in the top 12 if he survives the chaos. His teammates also exhibited much better practice speeds so I’m optimistic the 2-car can find something Sunday afternoon.

If you don’t feel great about Cindric, then look to Josh Berry, who comes from a short track background. Berry has looked great in the 21-car so far, which is an affiliate car for Team Penske. Berry starts P14 and the ride looked very strong in the long run. Berry also has a win at Martinsville from his time in the Xfinity Series and he grabbed a top five a few weeks back at Phoenix.

Brad Keselowski – DraftKings: $7,900 | FanDuel: $9,500

I’m going to be very brief on Brad Keselowski because there’s a chance he busts and screws any lineup he’s locked into. The good news is that he clearly offers position differential after he qualified P27. But it looks like he could have a top 10 car in the long run based on the practice runs. But if we’re being honest, he ran in Group A which had the earlier session. But to his credit, he led 170 laps in the fall and grabbed a top 10 finish.

My issue with Keselowski is that similar to Hamlin, if we get rain then we’re looking at a driver who could struggle. And Kez already starts pretty deep in the field. He started deep in the field at Homestead last week and it was like pulling teeth trying to get a top 20 out of him. He ended up finishing 26^th and I was big mad on the internet over that one.

If we get a dry race, then I’m fine playing him. But if there’s precipitation I’ll likely be dropping my exposure to about 20%.

Ryan Preece – DraftKings: $7,500 | FanDuel: $8,200

The price on Preece is steadily rising. Entering Martinsville, he has three straight finishes in the top 15. Moreover, he’s coming off back-to-back top 10 finishes at Vegas and Homestead. The guy is rolling right now has he’s returned 50+ fantasy points on DraftKings each of the last three weeks.

Now I will say, we should not be looking too much into the Phoenix race three weeks ago. That race utilized the option tire combination and Preece took full advantage with over 27 dominator points and position differential on his side. We don’t have that on the table for this race as we’ve already discussed.

The good news for Preece is that he actually comes from a short track background. On top of that, he’s never finished outside the top 20 at Martinsville in his two years with Stewart-Haas Racing. Now were those good DFS performances? Sort of.

In this race a year ago he started P22 and finished ninth. In the fall he started P8 and finished 14^th. In this exact race two years ago he won the pole but finished 15^th. But in that race, he led 135 laps. Just given the recent trends and the equipment upgrade with RFK Racing, he should firmly be on our radar assuming the team takes some risks with their pit strategy. 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Value Drivers

Bubba Wallace – DraftKings: $7,200 | FanDuel: $8,000

Bubba makes the Playbook once again, but the usual caveats still apply. He needs to really run a perfect race. Remember how this track has no room for error? Well, Bubba tends to fold when there are errors. A pit road issue or any kind of contact can sabotage his day.

But in this race a year ago he started P2 and finished fourth. So while we think of him as more of a drafter who is elite at Kansas, I do think there’s potential here. He’s in solid equipment and had arguably the best car in Group B’s practice session. Even last week he had an elite car in practice at Homestead and grabbed 17+ dominator points while finishing third.

We can’t load up on the play, but it is possible that he can go out there and serve as a secondary or tertiary dominator at a very affordable price tag. Similarly, Ty Gibbs starts P13 and is only $7,000 on DraftKings. Gibbs was very fast in Group A’s practice session, but he’s never finished in the top 15 in five Cup Series races at Martinsville.

Carson Hocevar – DraftKings: $6,600 | FanDuel: $6,500

Hocevar’s going to draw some attention. Sure, he was in Group A’s practice session, but he exhibited great speed in the early session. All in all, Hocevar qualified P29 and should be good enough to be one of those drivers that potentially gains 10+ spots of position differential.

Hocevar did start P25 in this race last year and finished 17^th. He’s had great speed in this Spire Motorsports car so far this year, but the final results haven’t reflected that. As long as he doesn’t have any disastrous issues he should pay off the price tag. Even if he only finishes 16^th, that’ll be good enough for 40+ fantasy points on DraftKings at a value price tag.

Cole Custer – DraftKings: $6,300 | FanDuel: $3,500

Custer’s practice numbers are also a bit misleading because he was also in the first group. But at the end of the day, even among the other drivers in Group A, he was still faster than everyone except maybe Ty Gibbs.

Custer is now the lone driver with Haas Factory Team. Stewart-Haas Racing actually had a nice sendoff last fall at Martinsville. In that race, all four SHR cars finished on the lead lap and in the top 16. Custer is a driver who also had some respectable performances at Martinsville in the Xfinity Series. He may just go somewhat overlooked because he doesn’t offer a ton of position differential. I actually do like this starting spot simply because if he can just play it safe in traffic, he shouldn’t lose the lead lap in the first stage.

Todd Gilliland – DraftKings: $5,600 | FanDuel: $4,200

I know I’m trying not to dwell on the Phoenix results too much because the tire narrative for this race won’t be the same. However, Gilliland was able to at least grab a top 20 finish just a few weeks ago on a short, flat track. And in that race he gained 10 spots of position differential.

We now head to Martinsville where Gilliland has done rather well for a value play. In six NextGen races at Martinsville with Front Row Motorsports, he has an average finish of 19.5 but he’s rather boom-or-bust. He’s finished 13^th or better in half the races and 25^th or worse in the other half. But I still think that’s worth leaning into for GPP lineup construction.

Last fall he may have only finished 26^th but he was 17^th in total speed rankings and 20^th in green flag speed. He even had some strong runs here in the Truck Series. He got a win at Martinsville in 2019 and led 133 laps in 2021. I doubt he can get the win in this series, but a top 15 finish is reasonable after he finished 17^th at Phoenix and even finished 12^th at New Hampshire last summer on the wet tires.

NASCAR DFS Optimizer & Lineups Picks This Week

Player Pool

• DraftKings
• FanDuel

$ Tier	D
High	Ryan Blaney $14,000
	Kyle Larson $13,500
	William Byron $13,000
	Denny Hamlin $12,500
	Chase Elliott $12,000
	Christopher Bell $11,000
Medium	Chase Briscoe $10,500
	Brad Keselowski $9,500
	Ryan Preece $8,200
	Josh Berry $8,500
	Bubba Wallace $8,000
Low	Kyle Busch $7,500
	Austin Cindric $7,200
	Noah Gragson $7,000
	Carson Hocevar $6,500
	Ty Gibbs $6,200
	Daniel Suárez $5,800
	Erik Jones $4,800
	Todd Gilliland $4,200
	Cole Custer $3,500