NASCAR DFS Picks: Bass Pro Shops Night Race Playbook, 9/21 - Bristol Motor Speedway

Saturday night under the lights at Bristol Motor Speedway! That’s what we get this week with the Bass Pro Shops Night Race. The action will be fast and furious around the famed Tennessee short track over the 500 laps. It’s also a cutoff race in the first round of the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs which is sure to add to the action. Just how does the playoff cutline change NASCAR DFS picks? What can we take from previous Bristol Motor Speedway races for DFS? What do the practice and qualifying results show? Who are the top drivers picks for NASCAR DFS in the top tier, mid-tier, and value tier this week? All of that plus Bristol DFS race trends and scoring history in this week’s NASCAR DFS cheatsheet.

Bristol Motor Speedway Trends

While the table below shows just the last 5 races at Bristol, historically trends are pretty set here. In the last 20 races here, the winner has come from outside of the top-10 just 6 times and 4 of those were P11 to P18. However, that being said, 6-of-the-last-8 winners have started in the top-5 of the grid. Even though the winners have come from the front of the field, the drivers finishing in the top-10 have been spread all over the place. On average, as seen in the table below, 40% of the top-10 have come from outside the top-12 starting spots and that includes a few from outside the top-30. Along those lines, moving up here is backed up by the trends with more than 7 drivers on average moving up at least 10 spots a race.

There’s also been multiple drivers to top 100 laps led in each of the last 5 races here. That’s not surprising given the 500 laps a race but it is important to note. As is the fact that just over 10 drivers on average finish on the lead lap a race.

NASCAR DraftKings Scoring Trends

The following graph shows the average DraftKings points scored by starting spot over the last 5 races at Bristol. It doesn’t take into account the driver in that spot, simply the points scored on average. It’s not a hard-and-fast rule but a general illustration of strategy.

NASCAR FanDuel Scoring Trends

The following graph shows the average FanDuel points scored by starting spot over the last 5 races at Bristol. It doesn’t take into account the driver in that spot, simply the points scored on average. It’s not a hard-and-fast rule but a general illustration of strategy.

Bass Pro Shops Night Race DFS - Practice & Qualifying Results

The following table shows the practice and qualifying results from Friday’s session. They are designed to show the average speed across short- and long-run metrics and how they compare to qualifying spots in an effort to see who may move up and who can hold their spots.

NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy: 2024 Bass Pro Shops Night Race

Who what is the best strategy to use for Bristol DFS this weekend? Given everything we’ve seen above the key here is to target laps led leaders and then fill out the rest of the lineup with drivers who can finish as high as possible. That’s trickier than it sounds with how many cautions there are per race on average (9.7 over the last 10 races) and the limited amount of drivers finishing on the lead lap. When we add in the intermediate package that’s used here, like at mile and half tracks, and the tire wear that induced in the Spring race, there’s all sorts of layers to this. The best strategy is to play three drivers from the top-15 who can be laps led dominators and then sprinkle in PD plays but be very weary of playing too many from the very back of the field as they can get trapped a lap down early and cap their position differential upside.

Top Bass Pro Shops Night Race DFS Picks

The drivers written up below are the top picks I’m using in my builds. It doesn’t mean we ignore the others added to the full pool, but these are the drivers with the highest upsides for the price.

NASCAR DFS Picks: Top-Tier Drivers

Denny Hamlin

This has been his track for a little while now. He’s not only won two races in a row but also has 4 straight top-10s. Hamlin has also posted the best driver rating in the last 8 races here and has the most laps led on average among drivers who have run at least the last 4 races. Hamlin will be rolling off P8 on Saturday night and while the practice speed wasn’t great, we’ve seen almost every weekend that his car is better in the race than at practice. Expect this to be another such weekend at a track he’s dominated.

Kyle Larson

It’s hard to overstate how good Larson has been at Bristol of late. In his last 5 races here he’s posted a 1 and 4 top-5s with an average finish of 3.8. He’s also only started inside the top-5 thrice in those 6 races. With the practice speed, his dominance, and his P2 starting spot make him a threat to win, dominate, and be the most popular play on the board.

Christopher Bell

Bell has 2 top-4 finishes in the last 3 races here and will now be starting within striking distance of another one. The practice speed wasn’t as good as we’d have hoped to see but the track history and the short track success is too hard to overlook at a track that favors starting toward the front.

NASCAR DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Drivers

Brad Keselowski

Would it surprise you to know that Keselowski, over the last 8 races here, ranks 3rd in average finish, 2nd in top-5s, 2nd in top-10s, tied for the most top-15s and top-20s? In that same span she also ranks 4th in laps led per race and 3rd in driver rating. So, basically he’s one of the best drivers at Bristol for nearly the last 5 years. Then he goes out and qualifies P23 with a car that’s several spots faster than that on top of having moved up 14 spots the last time he raced here. Value.

Ryan Blaney

It was a polar opposite Friday for Blaney. He had arguably the best car in practice and then laid down a middling lap in qualifying. This is a track that’s seen Blaney lead laps before and run well at times before typically getting caught up in issues on track. His nearly 36 laps led a race over the last 8 races rank him 8th in the field, however his average finish of 17.4 ranks 18th. So there’s hope for PD here but he’ll need one of his better showings here to pay off value.

Chase Elliott

Mr. Consistent is here specifically for that reason. In the 5 short track races this season he’s finished top-10 in all of them including 3 top-5s. He’s rolling off P10 and flashed top-5 speed in practice at a track where he’s been solid previously. Elliott doesn’t need a win just to simply have another solid finish to deliver once more.

Ty Gibbs

Gibbs has dominated 2 of the 3 races he’s been in in the Cup series at Bristol. In that span the only drivers to lead more laps on average are his teammates Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell. The average finish hasn’t been great, namely due to his first rough race, the last 2 races have seen Gibbs finish in the top-9. He’s done that starting P8 and P19 so the P13 starting spot on Saturday shouldn’t be a problem. Gibbs also had a fast car at practice to boot which should help him move up early in stage 1 to get those important playoff points.

Josh Berry

Berry is known for his skills on the short tracks with an average finish of 11.9 in those 8 Cup races. While he fell back 10 spots in his previous Bristol race to finish P12, his average run position was better than that and he’s not starting P2 this time. The speed was only so-so at practice but we’re trusting his known history at short tracks across multiple series to carry the day.

Bubba Wallace

We all know that Bubba has been inconsistent, but short tracks this year he’s been far better. In the 6 short tracks this year, Wallace has 2 P4, a P13, and a P17. The car was very speed across the board at practice before qualifying P11 as well. Toyotas have long been great at short tracks, including Bristol and if he keeps it clean and brings the speed to bear, Wallace is a sneaky top-10 pick with some leverage. Oh yeah and he’s got the new multi-year extension mojo going too.

NASCAR DFS Picks: Value Drivers

Daniel Suarez

As Team Trackhouse tweeted, or posted, after qualifying, the only way to go is forward. Suarez is starting nearly dead last and didn’t exactly have good practice speed. While it’d have been better to see the speed, we’re trusting Suarez’s solid history at these types of tracks. In his last 8 races at Bristol, he’s posted 5 top-20s and has started better than P20 just once. He almost assuredly won’t finish on the lead lap, but if he can nab a near top-20 finish, that won’t matter much for his value.

John H. Nemechek

Nemechek has been great at Bristol in the 3 Cup races he’s run here. That includes a P6 finish in the Spring race this year. Nemechek doesn’t appear to have blistering speed in the car, though it did get faster the longer the run, but he does have PD upside. If he can stay on the track and avoid pit mistakes, he should have a shot at another top-20 finish here, his 4th in 4 races.

Todd Gilliland

In 2-of-his-3 Bristol races in the Cup series, Gilliland has moved up at least 12 spots. It appears he has the speed in his car to do that once more this week. The practice speeds were top-15 before he qualified P24 for Saturday’s race. He’s been a favorite budget tier play of ours this year and this should be another week where he makes a big part of a lineup even with the price hike this week.

Harrison Burton

Burton’s car got better the longer it was on the track at practice. That still wasn’t enough to help him in qualifying as he’ll start P34. However, when we look at his short track runs in the Next Gen era, Burton has 7 top-20 finishes in 18 races. That’s not bad for a this cheap. If he can make use of his practice speed on Saturday night, he could be a great PD option as his playoffs all but come to an end.

NASCAR DFS Optimizer & Lineup Picks This Week

Below is the pool of drivers we’re using to build lineups with this week. Some are analyzed above, others are still good plays but didn’t warrant a write-up.

Player Pool

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Stacks

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